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Tropical Cyclone GINO
Southern Hemisphere Summary
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Tropical Cyclone GINO Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTXS21 PGTW 20130210 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.9S 85.1E TO 15.8S 80.8E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 101430Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.6S 84.5E.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.7S
86.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6S 84.5E, APPROXIMATELY 760 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING AND INCREASED CENTRAL
CONVECTION. A 101219Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED
LLCC WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
WRAPPING INTO THE NORTH QUADRANT. A 100638Z OCEANSAT IMAGE SHOWS AN
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. BASED ON THE
IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND AGGRESSIVE MODEL DEVELOPMENT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
111500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130211 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/101451Z FEB 13//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 12.1S 82.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S 82.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 13.2S 81.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 14.5S 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 16.0S 79.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 17.5S 79.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 20.6S 79.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 24.5S 82.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 27.0S 86.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 12.4S 82.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING AND INCREASING CENTRAL CONVECTION WHICH IS
OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 102329Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS BROKEN DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING ALONG THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION DUE TO THE LLCC BEING OBSCURED IN THE IR IMAGERY
AND THE AMBIGUITY IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS FROM PGTW DUE TO THE OVERALL IMPROVING
STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A DEVELOPING POINT SOURCE
NEAR THE SYSTEM AND AMPLE EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH IS
BEING ENHANCED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH NEAR THE COAST OF WESTERN
AUSTRALIA. TC 15S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWEST UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 15S IS FORECAST TO TRACK MORE
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR.
AFTER TAU 36, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL RE-ORIENT THE STR CAUSING
TC 15S TO TRACK MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH TAU 72, AFTER WHICH, TC 15S
WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE AND TRACK WESTERLY AS IT BEGINS TO ENTER
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC 15S IS FORECAST TO INCREASE IN
INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (27 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES(SSTS), AND AMPLE OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU 72, TC 15S
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS HIGHER VWS AND COOLER SSTS,
AND BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, THEREFORE, THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 101451Z FEB 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 101500). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z AND 120300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130211 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GINO) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GINO) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 13.1S 81.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 81.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 14.5S 80.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 16.0S 79.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 17.7S 79.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 19.9S 79.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 24.9S 81.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 28.5S 87.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 13.4S 81.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GINO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 630 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE NOW
OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 111206Z SSMIS
37GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
WELL-DEFINED LLCC. BASED ON THE TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING, THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON THE HIGHER END OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS. TC 15S IS TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS FORECAST
TO ERODE WITH THE APPROACH OF A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO RE-CURVE INTO THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF RE-CURVATURE AND TRACK
SPEEDS IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST BASED, IN LARGE PART, ON HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION. TC 15S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 60
UNDER FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS AND IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 85
TO 90 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 60, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SST (LESS THAN 25C). TC
15S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 72
AND WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 120300Z AND 121500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130212 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GINO) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GINO) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 14.4S 80.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S 80.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 15.9S 79.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 17.6S 79.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 19.1S 79.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 21.0S 80.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 24.9S 82.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 28.0S 88.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 80.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GINO), LOCATED 650 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO
GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION HAS EXPANDED AND DEEPENED WHILE MAINTAINING RELATIVE
SYMMETRY. THE INITIAL POSITION, BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND
EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 112059Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE, IS PLACED WITH
POOR CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BEING OBSCURED BY
THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS UNDER A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT (05-10 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE
IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH THE APPROACH OF A
MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, ALLOWING THE
SYSTEM TO RE-CURVE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC 15S IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS, PEAKING AT 85 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLER SST (LESS THAN 25C). TC
GINO IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 72
AND WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF RE-CURVATURE AND TRACK SPEEDS IN
THE EXTENDED TAUS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 121500Z AND 130300Z. //
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130212 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GINO) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GINO) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 16.6S 79.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 79.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 18.5S 79.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 20.5S 79.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 22.3S 80.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 24.3S 81.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 27.4S 85.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 79.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GINO), LOCATED 700 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO
GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A
RAGGED EYE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH DEEP BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 120819Z 37H
TRMM IMAGE SUPPORTS THE RECENT IMPROVEMENTS IN ORGANIZATION OBSERVED
IN MSI. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A VIGOROUS RADIAL OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A POINT-SOURCE ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER THE LLCC,
WHICH IS ALSO CREATING A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ENVIRONMENT.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND
KNES INDICATING 75 KNOTS. TC 15S CONTINUES TO TRACK AROUND THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING AROUND THE STR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE (28
DEGREES CELSIUS) BUT WILL STEADILY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS,
BECOMING UNFAVORABLE BY TAU 36. IN ADDITION, VWS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
BECOMING UNFAVORABLE (GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS) BY TAU 48. EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY TAU 48 AS DECREASING SST
VALUES, INCREASING VWS, AND THE APPROACHING TROUGH LEAD TO THE
TRANSITION OF THE SYSTEM TO A COLD-CORE LOW BY TAU 72. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 23
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z AND 131500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130213 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GINO) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GINO) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 18.3S 79.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 79.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 20.0S 79.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 21.6S 80.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 23.5S 81.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 25.3S 83.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 27.8S 88.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 79.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GINO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 790 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A RAGGED EYE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. THE SYSTEM IS JUST SOUTH OF A
POINT SOURCE IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS); HOWEVER, THE SAME ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS SUSTAINING
THE EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE IS ROUNDING
THE WESTERN EDGE OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL HIGH (STH) TO THE
EAST. AFTER TAU 24, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL WEAKEN THE STEERING STH AND CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO DEFLECT
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME AN
EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW BY TAU 72. CONCURRENTLY, VWS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASE AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. TC 15S IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH ITS INITIAL EXPOSURE
INTO THE WESTERLIES FURTHER ENHANCING THE EXCELLENT OUTFLOW. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WBAR AS THE SOLE
RIGHT OUTLIER. GIVEN THE WELL-ESTABLISHED STEERING MECHANISM AND THE
TIGHT PACKING OF THE NUMERIC GUIDANCE, THERE REMAINS A HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z AND 140300Z. //
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130213 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GINO) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GINO) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 20.1S 79.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S 79.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 22.2S 80.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 23.8S 81.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 25.5S 83.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 26.7S 85.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 28.2S 89.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 79.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GINO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 875 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE DEEPEST AREAS OF CONVECTION
AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), AND IS SUPPORTED BY
THE RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE EYE HAS BECOME
LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND IS BECOMING OBSCURED BY
CONVECTION AS IT IS SHEARED FROM THE BAND ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT. A RECENT SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES SUPPORTS THE WEAKENING
OF THE EYE IN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVELS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
A SLIGHT INCREASE FROM LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) (10 TO 15 KNOTS) AS THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE HAS BECOME
SLIGHTLY DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC. TC 15S CONTINUES TO
TRACK AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST, AND HAS
SHIFTED FROM A SOUTHWESTERN TRACK TO A MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
MOTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE STR, AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY LEAD TO STRONG VWS OVER THE LLCC. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY MARGINAL AND HAS BEEN STEADILY
DECLINING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH FURTHER COOLING EXPECTED
THROUGH TAU 72. THE STEADY WEAKENING TREND AND INCREASING
INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 48. ETT WILL BE COMPLETE BY TAU 72 AS VWS
AND SST VALUES RAPIDLY DETERIORATE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 140300Z AND 141500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130214 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GINO) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GINO) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 22.0S 80.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.0S 80.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 24.0S 81.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 25.8S 83.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 26.8S 84.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 27.0S 86.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 22.5S 80.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GINO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 990 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT TC 15S HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS, HOLDING ONTO A RAGGED 5NM EYE. A RECENT 140018Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS TC 15S REMAINS TIGHTLY WRAPPED BUT THE
DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE RAGGED EYE SEEN IN THE IR LOOP
AND SATELLITE POSITION FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ASSESSED AT 85 KNOTS BASED UPON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 77 TO 90 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), NOW AT
MODERATE LEVELS (15 TO 25 KNOTS), BUT AMPLE OUTFLOW INTO A
SUBTROPICAL JET MAX LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 15S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE STR,
LOCATED TO THE EAST, RAPIDLY WEAKENING AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
DECREASE AND VWS INCREASES DUE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
FROM THE WEST. TC 15S WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AT
TAU 36 AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 141500Z AND 150300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130214 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GINO) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GINO) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 23.9S 80.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.9S 80.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 25.9S 82.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 27.3S 84.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 27.6S 86.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 26.8S 88.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 24.4S 81.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GINO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1110 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF
THE LLCC. DESPITE THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND, A 141249Z SSMIS IMAGE
INDICATES DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE EAST QUADRANT
INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AND TIGHTLY-CURVED, SHALLOW BANDING
ELSEWHERE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KNOTS BASED ON
THE LOWER END OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65
TO 90 KNOTS. TC 15S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND WILL ENCOUNTER
STRONG (40 TO 60 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND COOLER SST (24
TO 25C), WHICH WILL SERVE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. TC 15S IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 12 AND
SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 36. THE DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE A WEAK
ETT WITH THE REMNANT LOW BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR TAU 36 AND
TURNING NORTHWESTWARD AS A STRONG HIGH BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH. THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. DUE TO THE
STRONG VWS AND COOLER SST, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN BELOW 35 KNOTS PRIOR TO COMPLETING ETT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
150300Z AND 151500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130215 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GINO) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GINO) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 25.6S 83.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.6S 83.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 26.8S 85.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 26.9S 87.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 25.9S 83.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GINO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1275 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS STARTED TO
ELONGATE AND DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW SHEARED 30NM FROM THE LLCC,
INDICATIVE OF THE BEGINNING OF EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). A
RECENT 150006Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS THE
BEGINNING OF ETT, AS THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AND DRY AIR IS BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE
SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON A BROAD LLCC IN THE
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS WHICH IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN CONGRUENT DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND FMEE. TC 15S
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER STRONG (40 TO 60
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND COOL SSTS (24 TO 25C), WHICH
WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. TC 15S WILL CONTINUE ETT THROUGH TAU
12 AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 24. THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. DUE TO THE STRONG VWS AND COOLER SST, THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN BELOW 35 KNOTS PRIOR TO
COMPLETING ETT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130215 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GINO) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GINO) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 26.4S 86.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.4S 86.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 26.4S 87.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 26.4S 86.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GINO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1395 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, BROADENING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH RAPIDLY DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED ABOUT 200NM SOUTHEAST
OF THE CENTER. THIS RAPID WEAKENING IS ALSO EVIDENT IN A 150846Z
AMSU IMAGE SHOWING WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING. MSI ALSO SHOWS A WEAK
FRONTAL STRUCTURE WITH COLD-AIR STRATOCUMULUS ADVECTING INTO THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION BASED ON MSI. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND IS UNDER
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40
KNOTS, WHICH IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS, BASED ON A RECENT SATCON OF 40
KNOTS. TC 15S IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST BASED ON THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, WHICH ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
151200Z IS 15 FEET.//
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_gino.htm | Updated: 17 February 2013 |