Tropical Cyclones [Index]

Tropical Cyclone HALEY Southern Hemisphere Summary

WTPS21 PGTW 20130209 10:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.8S 158.2W TO 23.1S 151.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
090930Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.8S
158.1W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.6S
158.1W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.8S 158.1W, APPROXIMATELY 385 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF BORA BORA, SOCIETY ISLANDS, FRENCH POLYNESIA. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL (APPROXIMATELY 120NM
DIAMETER) CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE INDICATIVE OF A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 090658Z SSMIS
IMAGE INDICATES TIGHTLY-WRAPPED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. A 081926Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWED A SYMMETRIC
CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST
POLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS UNDER WEAK WESTERLY FLOW WITH
WEAK TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DESPITE WEAK
BAROCLINICITY AND THE POSITION UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
WESTERLIES, THE SYSTEM HAS RETAINED A DEEP MOISTURE CORE AND A WEAK
WARM CORE, AS INDICATED IN THE LATEST AMSU CROSS-SECTION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. BASED ON THE
FAVORABLE SST AND CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
101000Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20130210 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (HALEY) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/090951Z FEB 13//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (HALEY) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   100000Z --- NEAR 21.7S 153.4W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S 153.4W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z --- 22.9S 151.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z --- 23.8S 149.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z --- 24.5S 148.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 22.0S 152.9W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (HALEY) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF BORA BORA, SOCIETY ISLANDS, FRENCH POLYNESIA, HAS
TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PERSISTENT
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WHICH IS READILY EVIDENT IN A 092331Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE.
A 091908Z ASCAT BULLS EYE PASS SHOWED A SMALL, SYMMETRIC WIND FIELD
WITH 45 KNOT WINDS INDICATED NEAR THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED UPON THE THE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED UPON PERSISTENCE
WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ASCAT PASS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED POLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) AXIS UNDER WEAK WESTERLY FLOW WITH LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE STR.
TC 14P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
STEERING STR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 36 AS
IT ENCOUNTERS UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF COOL SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (LESS THAN 26 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THE FORECAST TRACK IS NEAR MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z AND 110300Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES
AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 090951Z FEB
13 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 091000).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20130210 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (HALEY) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (HALEY) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   101200Z --- NEAR 23.1S 151.5W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.1S 151.5W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z --- 24.1S 149.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z --- 24.9S 148.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z --- 25.0S 147.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 23.4S 151.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (HALEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
SOUTH OF BORA BORA, SOCIETY ISLANDS, FRENCH POLYNESIA, HAS TRACKED
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WEAKENING CORE CONVECTION OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS, HOWEVER, A 101047Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. ADDITIONALLY, A 100734Z ASCAT 25KM IMAGE DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC
CIRCULATION WITH 40 TO 45 KNOT WINDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON THE ASCAT IMAGE AND DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM ALL AGENCIES. TC 14P IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER SST (24 TO 25C) AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY TAU 36. THE REMNANTS WILL LIKELY TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS
A STRONG HIGH BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH AFTER TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS
15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z AND 111500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20130211 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (HALEY) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (HALEY) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   110000Z --- NEAR 24.8S 150.0W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 24.8S 150.0W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z --- 25.6S 148.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 25.0S 149.7W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (HALEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BORA BORA, SOCIETY ISLANDS, FRENCH POLYNESIA, HAS
TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN ELONGATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS FULLY EXPOSED AND VOID OF ANY DEEP
CONVECTION. A 102319Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO REVEALS A GENERAL
UNRAVELING OF THE SYSTEM AND ADDITIONALLY SHOWS DRY AIR ENTRAINING
INTO THE CORE. AN OLDER 101847Z ASCAT 25KM IMAGE ALSO SHOWS SOME
ELONGATION OF THE LLCC AND ONLY INDICATES 40 KNOT CORE WINDS, WHICH,
ALONG WITH FALLING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES, IS
INDICATIVE OF AN OVERALL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. TC 14P HAS TRACKED
INTO AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (24
TO 25 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THESE
UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WHICH WILL DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD IN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 110000Z IS 10 FEET.//