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Tropical Cyclone HARUNA
Southern Hemisphere Summary
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Tropical Cyclone HARUNA Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTXS21 PGTW 20130218 01:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 235 NM RADIUS OF 19.1S 39.6E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 180100Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 19.4S 40.0E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.7S
39.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.4S 40.0E, APPROXIMATELY 395 NM WEST OF
ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDS THAT ARE CONSOLIDATING AND WRAPPING TIGHTER
INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FROM THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
JUST SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS THAT IS ENHANCING OUTFLOW ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE EASTERN FLANK; HOWEVER, MODERATE (20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
DISPLACING THE MAIN CONVECTION FROM THE LLCC. SSTS REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. NUMERICAL MODELS
INDICATE DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, ALBEIT WITH
VARYING TRAJECTORIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1000 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVED OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE
SUSTAINED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
190130Z. //
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130219 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180121Z FEB 13//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 20.0S 41.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 41.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 20.6S 41.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 21.2S 41.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 21.8S 41.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 22.5S 42.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 23.3S 44.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 24.6S 46.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 26.3S 49.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 41.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM WEST OF
ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING ALONG THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PERIPHERIES OF A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
A MOSAIC OF RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS STEADILY IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ANIMATED IR LOOP AND A
182254Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 16S IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF A
RIDGE AXIS, WITH A POINT SOURCE OVERHEAD PROVIDING GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDER MODERATE (15-20 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 16S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST. A DEEP-LAYER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AFTER TAU 48, ADDING ADDITIONAL
VWS AND AMPLIFYING THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE EAST. THIS WILL
ACCELERATE THE SOUTHEASTERLY MOTION. THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS, WHICH TRACK THE SYSTEM OVER
SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR, WHILE THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS KEEP THE
SYSTEM UNREASONABLY STATIONARY DESPITE THE PASSING TROUGH. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI 180121Z FEB 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21
PGTW 180130). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z AND 200300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130219 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HARUNA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HARUNA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 21.3S 40.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S 40.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 21.8S 41.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 22.3S 41.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 22.7S 41.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 23.1S 42.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 24.0S 43.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 26.4S 46.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 29.0S 48.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 21.4S 40.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HARUNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC AND WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, WHICH IS READILY APPARENT IN A 191128Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE WELL DEFINED
LLCC IN THE MSI LOOP AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED UPON CONGRUENT
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TC 16S HAS MAINTAINED A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
SYSTEM WHICH IS PROVIDING FAVORABLE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (15-
20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 16S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A
SLOW SOUTHERN TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNTIL A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST, WHICH WILL RE-ORIENT THE
RIDGE AND TURN THE SYSTEM ON A MORE SOUTHEAST TRACK. THE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO INITIALLY INCREASE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ALLOWING FOR
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 48, AND THEN THE INCREASING VWS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. PAST TAU 72,
BRIEF LAND INTERACTION WITH MADAGASCAR AND COOLER SSTS WILL ALSO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, DISSIPATING TC 16S BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD BY TAU
120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPREAD THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH
VARYING SPEEDS AND TRAJECTORIES. DUE TO THIS, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
LIES CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND FAVORS THE ECMWF SOLUTION.
OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE LARGE
SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
191200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z AND 201500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130220 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HARUNA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HARUNA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 21.4S 40.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.4S 40.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 21.3S 40.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 21.9S 41.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 22.3S 41.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 22.8S 42.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 24.3S 43.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 27.0S 46.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 30.4S 50.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 21.4S 40.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HARUNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES RAPID CONSOLIDATION OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS
WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-
DEFINED CENTER. A 200023Z SSMI 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE AND SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
BASED ON THE SSMI IMAGE AND PREVIOUS MICROWAVE IMAGERY, THE SYSTEM
MOTION HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AND APPEARS TO BE LOOPING. UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WARM SST. OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS, THE
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) HAS WEAKENED DUE TO AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND TC 16S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY AND
ERRATICALLY WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS SLOW TRACK MOTION THROUGH TAU 48 UNTIL A DEEP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM
WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT). TC 16S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION NEAR TAU 72, THEN MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING AS IT
TRACKS OVER COOLER SST AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU
120. OVERALL, THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND
SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK; HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIROMENT AND
UNCERTAINTIES IN TRACK SPEED AFTER TAU 72. THE SYSTEM IS NOW
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 75 KNOTS BY TAU 36 DUE TO
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS
20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z AND 210300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130220 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HARUNA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HARUNA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 22.1S 40.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S 40.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 22.4S 41.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 22.8S 41.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 23.2S 42.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 24.3S 43.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 26.8S 46.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 28.0S 50.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 28.0S 53.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 22.2S 40.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HARUNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL DEVELOPED SYSTEM
THAT CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATE AND HAS FORMED A LARGE 25NM
EYE WITH DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 70 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND FMEE, RANGING FROM 65 TO 77 KNOTS.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS TC 16S REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT OF EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. TC 16S HAS BEEN TRACKING ERRATICALLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, BUT HAS BEEN TRENDING ON A SOUTHERN
TRACK. THIS WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS UNTIL A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSES SOUTH OF
MADAGASCAR. AFTER TAU 24, A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD IN NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND PROVIDE A MORE
SOUTHEAST TRACK. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS TO A PEAK OF 85 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 24, INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT)
AS IT TRACKS INTO COOLER WATERS (< 26 DEGREES CELSIUS) SOUTHEAST OF
MADAGASCAR AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120. THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT DESPITE VARYING SPEEDS AND THE PROXIMITY TO
MADAGASCAR. THEREFORE THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES CLOSE TO MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, BASED ON THE CURRENT WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS
25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210300Z AND 211500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130221 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HARUNA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HARUNA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 22.5S 41.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.5S 41.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 22.7S 42.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 22.9S 42.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 23.6S 43.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 24.8S 44.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 26.9S 48.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 27.4S 53.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 22.6S 41.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HARUNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO DEEPEN AS IT MAINTAINED A LARGE AND
SYMMETRICAL 30-NM EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE ABOVE
ANIMATION AND FROM A 202234Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM
IS JUST TO THE WEST OF AN ANTICYCLONE IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH (STH) TO THE EAST. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY
SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE AND TRANSITING WESTWARD IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
THE STH OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS RESULTING IN A MORE EASTWARD STORM
MOTION. TC 16S WILL COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 72 AS
IT GETS EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES AND BECOMES A COLD-CORE LOW BY TAU
96. THE SYSTEM WILL PEAK INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
ALONG-TRACK ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE. BEYOND TAU 24,
INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR,
INCREASING VWS, AND COOLING SSTS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH GFDN AS THE LEFT
OUTLIER AND WBAR THE RIGHT OUTLIER. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS LAID CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
210000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z AND 220300Z. //
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130221 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HARUNA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HARUNA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 22.3S 41.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.3S 41.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 22.4S 42.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 23.3S 43.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 24.7S 45.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 25.8S 46.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 27.5S 50.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 28.9S 55.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 22.3S 42.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HARUNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED STEADY
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH A WELL DEFINED EYE AND DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 16S IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF AN ANTICYCLONE,
UNDER THE AXIS OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 16S HAS BEEN TRACKING IN A GENERAL EASTWARD
DIRECTION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND THE
INTERACTION OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. A
BUILDING EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF TC 16S WILL SHIFT THE
TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INCREASING VWS,
DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND INCREASING INTERACTION WITH
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL BEGIN THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
TO A COLD-CORE LOW BY TAU 72. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE A FULLY
EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 96. THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE
MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72, BUT THERE IS A LARGE VARIABILITY
FROM TAU 96 AND BEYOND. BASED ON THE FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z AND
221500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130222 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HARUNA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HARUNA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 22.2S 43.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.2S 43.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 23.0S 44.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 24.1S 45.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 25.0S 46.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 26.1S 48.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 27.1S 53.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 27.1S 56.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 22.4S 43.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HARUNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM MAINTAINED A LARGE AND HIGHLY SYMMETRICAL 50-NM EYE.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND FROM A
202223Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, FMEE, AND
KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE WEST
OF AN ANTICYCLONE IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH (STH) TO
THE EAST THAT HAS BEEN WEAKENED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY
SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE AND TRANSITING EASTWARD. TC 16S IS ABOUT TO MAKE
LANDFALL INTO SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR. THE INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED
TERRAIN OF THE ISLAND, INCREASING VWS, AND COOLING SSTS AFTER LAND
PASSAGE WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM. TC HARUNA WILL DISSIPATE AS A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER BY TAU 96. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH EGRR AS THE LEFT AND WBAR
THE RIGHT OUTLIER. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS LAID CLOSE TO CONSENSUS
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS
30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z AND 30300Z. //
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130222 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HARUNA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HARUNA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 23.0S 43.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 23.0S 43.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 24.1S 45.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 25.1S 46.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 26.4S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 26.9S 51.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 26.9S 54.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 23.3S 44.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HARUNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN OVER
MADAGASCAR FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH A SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING
TREND. THE WELL-DEFINED EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME MORE RAGGED AND HAS
BEEN REDUCING IN SIZE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER LAND. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN ANTICYCLONE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF
THE EYE HAS BEEN PROVIDING AMPLE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND IS CREATING A
LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ENVIRONMENT. AS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER MADAGASCAR, FRICTIONAL EFFECTS WILL
PERSIST IN WEAKENING TC 16S. UPON MOVING BACK OVER WATER, DECREASING
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND INCREASING VWS, ASSOCIATED WITH
GREATER INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, WILL FURTHER
ENHANCE THE WEAKENING TREND. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES TC 16S WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH
(STH) AND WILL WEAKEN FURTHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING VWS
AND DECREASING SST VALUES. THE GUIDANCE INDICATES TC 16S WILL
DISSIPATE BELOW WARNING STATUS BY TAU 72. IT ALSO INDICATES THE STH
WILL WEAKEN, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TURN SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AS THE
REMNANTS OF THE LOW LEVEL BECOME ABSORBED IN THE GRADIENT FLOW.
BASED ON THE GOOD AGREEMENT IN MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH TAU 72, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z
AND 231500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130223 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HARUNA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HARUNA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 24.3S 46.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.3S 46.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 25.5S 48.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 26.6S 50.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 27.5S 52.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 27.7S 55.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 26.8S 57.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 24.6S 46.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HARUNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM
SOUTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS RAPIDLY WEAKENING CORE CONVECTION DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION. HOWEVER, A 222212Z AMSU IMAGE AND RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY CONTINUE TO INDICATE TIGHTLY-CURVED, SHALLOW BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A STRONG LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS BASED ON THE OVERALL STRUCTURE.
THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON A 222337Z
SSMI IMAGE AND ANIMATED IR IMAGERY. TC 16S IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING DUE TO
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT WESTERLY
FLOW AS WELL AS COOLER SST (AFTER TAU 24), THEREFORE, TC 16S SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. THE REMNANTS WILL LIKELY TRACK WESTWARD TOWARD
MADAGASCAR AS A STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDS TO THE SOUTH AFTER
TAU 48. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z AND 240300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130223 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HARUNA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HARUNA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 25.4S 48.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.4S 48.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 26.5S 51.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 27.2S 53.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 27.6S 56.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 27.1S 58.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 25.7S 49.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HARUNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM
SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A RAGGED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION
REBUILDING AROUND THE LLCC AS TC 16S HAS TRACKED BACK OVER WATER.
THIS IS READILY APPARENT IN A 231206Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, AS
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING IS REBUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THIS MICROWAVE IMAGE AND THE MSI
LOOP WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45
KNOTS, WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
ALL AGENCIES OF 35 KNOTS, BASED ON THE STRUCTURE SEEN IN THE
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS IN A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AS THERE IS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE
WESTERLIES BUT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS AT MODERATE (15-20 KNOT)
LEVELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE ALSO MARGINAL AT
25 TO 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 16S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EASTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 16S IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS GENERAL EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS
CURRENT INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER TAU 24, VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND SSTS WILL DECREASE, LEADING TO
DISSIPATION BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD BY TAU 48. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
SPREAD CONSIDERABLY AFTER TAU 12 WITH A LARGE DISAGREEMENT ON TRACK
SPEEDS. THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS, DUE TO
CONSENSUS SHOWING A MUCH FASTER TRACK AS IT IS BEING PULLED BY THE
MUCH FASTER NOGAPS AND WBAR SOLUTIONS. DUE TO THE NOW LARGE SPREAD
IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS PAST TAU 12, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z AND 241500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130224 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HARUNA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HARUNA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 26.2S 51.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.2S 51.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 27.1S 53.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 27.1S 56.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 26.8S 58.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 26.0S 59.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 26.4S 51.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HARUNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM
SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
DEEP CONVECTION HAS REMAINED DISORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
WITH WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES, INDICATIVE OF WEAKENING DEEP
CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 232322Z SSMI IMAGE,
HOWEVER, CONTINUES TO SHOW TIGHTLY-CURVED SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. CONSEQUENTLY,
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED TO 35 KNOTS. SATCON
ESTIMATES REMAIN NEAR 45 KNOTS, WHICH FITS BETTER WITH THE OVERALL
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND WITH A 231812Z ASCAT IMAGE, WHICH SHOWED 35
TO 40 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE ELONGATED LLCC EVIDENT IN RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
WHILE WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER
SST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE
REMNANTS OF TC 16S ARE FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD TOWARD MOZAMBIQUE
AFTER TAU 48 AS A STRONG HIGH BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
241500Z AND 250300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130224 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HARUNA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HARUNA) WARNING NR 012
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 27.2S 54.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.2S 54.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 27.2S 56.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 27.0S 58.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 27.2S 54.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HARUNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A RAGGED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP
CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 241223Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW A TIGHTLY WRAPPED SYSTEM BUT THE
CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE AND HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE MSI AND THE MICROWAVE IMAGE
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS
BASED ON A 240822Z OSCAT PASS SHOWING 40 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE LLCC.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS TC 16S IS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF
STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH IS OFFSETTING THE
FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY A JET MAX SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH WHILE
WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 24, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE
REMNANTS OF TC 16S BACK WESTWARD TOWARD MOZAMBIQUE AFTER TAU 36 AS A
STRONG HIGH BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 241200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT 250300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 17S (RUSTY) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) AND TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S
(EIGHTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// .
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130225 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HARUNA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HARUNA) WARNING NR 013
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 27.0S 57.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 27.0S 57.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 26.6S 59.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 26.9S 58.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HARUNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH NO DEEP
CONVECTION. A 242151Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS BROAD, SHALLOW CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAK LLCC. A 241751Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWED ONLY
30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. TC 16S IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND APPEARS TO BE
A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM WITH A DRY SLOT WRAPPING AROUND AND INTO THE
LLCC IN THE LATEST TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW 35 KNOTS BY TAU 12 WHILE TRACKING EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD. THE REMNANTS ARE FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD AS A
STRONG HIGH BUILDS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 13 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 17S (RUSTY) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_haruna.htm | Updated: 27 February 2013 |