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Tropical Cyclone JAMALA
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Tropical Cyclone JAMALA Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTXS21 PGTW 20130508 02:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 5.7S 83.3E TO 9.9S 79.5E WITHIN
THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
080130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 6.2S
82.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.0S 83.5E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.2S 82.6E, APPROXIMATELY 605 NM EAST OF DIEGO
GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING
HAS SIGNIFICANTLY CONSOLIDATED AND DEEPENED AS THE LLCC HAS BECOME
BETTER-DEFINED. A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES, THE LATEST OF WHICH IS A
072334Z SSMI-S MICROWAVE PASS, SHOW THE PROGRESSIVE CONSOLIDATION OF
THE FEEDER BANDS THAT ARE MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOTS) NORTHERLY VWS. THE VWS,
HOWEVER, IS OFFSET BY EXCELLENT WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO START TRACKING MORE POLEWARD INTO LOWER VWS.
THE DYNAMIC MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. BASED ON RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA, MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. IN VIEW OF THE SIGNIFICANT
CONSOLIDATION AND ANTICIPATED LOWER VWS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
090200Z. //
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130508 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (TWENTYFOUR) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080151Z MAY 13//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (TWENTYFOUR) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 6.0S 83.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 6.0S 83.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 6.6S 84.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 7.5S 84.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 8.4S 84.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 9.1S 83.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 9.6S 82.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 9.8S 81.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 9.9S 79.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 6.1S 84.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (TWENTYFOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 685 NM
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH A
BUILDING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. A 081133Z TRMM 37 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE OVERALL IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM
WITH DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND SHALLOW BROKEN CONVECTIVE
BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE
TIGHTLY WRAPPED. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
BASED UPON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN A DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS FROM PGTW, BASED UPON THE IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION AND DEEPENING CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS
A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW IS OFFSET BY
MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30 KNOTS). TC 24S HAS
BEEN NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS IT HAS
CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH OVER THE NEXT DAY AS IT CONTINUES TO IMPROVE IN
ORGANIZATION AND INTENSIFY. PAST TAU 24, A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE THE
SYSTEM WEST, CONTINUALLY INTENSIFYING UNDER THE MODERATELY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT OF EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPREAD, BUT GENERALLY AGREES WITH A SLOW
SOUTHERN TRACK THAT BECOMES WESTWARD IN THE LATER TAUS. DUE TO THIS
SPREAD, THE FORECAST TRACK LIES CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z AND 091500Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES
AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 080151Z MAY
13 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 080200).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130508 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (TWENTYFOUR) WARNING NR 002 RELOCATED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (TWENTYFOUR) WARNING NR 002 RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 6.1S 85.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 6.1S 85.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 6.5S 85.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 7.0S 85.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 7.4S 85.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 8.0S 85.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 8.7S 85.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 9.3S 84.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 9.6S 81.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 6.2S 85.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (TWENTYFOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 771 NM
EASTWARD OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC) WITH A
BUILDING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE. A 081429Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE CDO FEATURE IS SHEARED OFF TO THE WEST,
PARTIALLY EXPOSING THE LLCC. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION BASED UPON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON A 081606Z ASCAT PASS.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS
MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS OFFSET
BY STRONG WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 24S HAS BEEN QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS IT HAS CONTINUED TO
CONSOLIDATE. TC 24S IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A COL AREA AND IS SLOWLY
DRIFTING SOUTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. PAST TAU 72, A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND ASSUME THE STEERING, DRIVING THE
SYSTEM TO THE WEST. TC 24S WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE AND INTENSIFY
AS VWS BEGINS TO DECREASE AS IT APPROACHES THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS. THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY WILL BE ACHIEVED AT APPROXIMATELY TAU 72
AFTER THE SYSTEM CROSSES INTO THE POELWARD SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND
BECOMES EXPOSED TO THE WESTERLIES. BEYOND TAU 72 THE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO DECAY DUE TO INCREASING VWS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SPREAD, BUT GENERALLY AGREES WITH A SLOW SOUTHERN TRACK THAT BECOMES
WESTWARD IN THE LATER TAUS. EGRR AND WBAR ARE EASTWARD OUTLIERS
ACTING TO ERRONEOUSLY SKEW CONW TO THE EAST. THEREFORE THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED SLIGHTLY WEST OF CONW. DUE TO THIS SPREAD,
THE FORECAST TRACK LIES CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. JUSTIFICATION FOR RELOCATION: RELOCATED INITIAL POSITION
OF TC 24S FURTHER EASTWARD BASED ON NEWLY AVAILABLE MICROWAVE
IMAGERY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090900Z AND 092100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130509 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (TWENTYFOUR) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (TWENTYFOUR) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 7.0S 85.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.0S 85.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 7.5S 85.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 8.0S 85.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 8.6S 86.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 9.4S 86.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 10.1S 85.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 10.8S 83.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 11.1S 78.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 7.1S 85.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (TWENTYFOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 774 NM
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A
LARGE CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. DUE TO THE SHEARED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, DVORAK
ESTIMATES APPEAR LOW AND RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT 40 KNOTS HEDGED CLOSER TO A
RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 48 KNOTS. TC 24S IS LOCATED WITHIN A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG (30 TO 40 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 24S IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE THROUGH TAU 48. THEREAFTER, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD TURN INCREASINGLY WESTWARD AND ACCELERATE AS IT
TRANSITIONS TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A STRONG HIGH ANCHORED TO
THE SOUTH. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMO TRACKER, WHICH TRACKS THE
SYSTEM EASTWARD, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT. THE
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN TURNING TC 24S WESTWARD BUT DIFFER IN THE
TIMING OF THIS TURN. THE JTWC FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTION.
THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
AND FASTER TO OFFSET THE UNLIKELY UKMO SOLUTION. THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE MODEL SPREAD AND DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING OF THE WESTWARD TURN. AFTER TAU 12, VWS IS FORECAST TO
RELAX, ALLOWING FOR FURTHER CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION. TC
24S SHOULD PEAK AT ABOUT 65 KNOTS BY TAU 72 THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN
DUE TO THE INFUSION OF COOLER, DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
090600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z AND 100900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130509 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (TWENTYFOUR) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (TWENTYFOUR) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 8.1S 86.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.1S 86.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 8.7S 86.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 9.2S 86.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 9.8S 86.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 10.3S 86.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 10.7S 85.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 11.3S 81.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 11.8S 77.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 8.2S 86.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (TWENTYFOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 805 NM
EASTWARD OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
IMAGERY DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) LOCATED UNDER
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF A LARGE CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR AND PGTW FIX WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON A
RECENT ASCAT PASS AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 52 KNOTS. TC 24S
CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG (40 TO
50 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY FAVORABLE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
THROUGH TAU 48. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN INCREASINGLY
WESTWARD AND ACCELERATE AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS BIFURCATED
AS GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A WESTWARD TREND, NVGM AND GFDN DEPICT A
QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION, AND WBAR AND EGRR DEPICT AN EASTWARD TREND.
THE JTWC FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
HEDGES JUST WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, CONSISTENT WITH THE
WESTWARD TRENDING MODEL GUIDANCE. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST DUE TO THE MODEL SPREAD AND DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE
WESTWARD TURN. TC 24S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND
INTENSIFY AS VWS RELAXES AND THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU
48. TC 24S SHOULD PEAK AT ABOUT 70 KNOTS BY TAU 72 THEN GRADUALLY
WEAKEN DUE TO THE INFUSION OF COOLER, DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STR BUILDING TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
091800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z AND 102100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130510 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JAMALA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JAMALA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 8.7S 86.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.7S 86.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 9.2S 86.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 9.7S 86.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 10.2S 86.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 10.5S 85.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 10.9S 83.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 11.5S 79.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 12.0S 75.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 8.8S 86.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JAMALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 820 NM EAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
A LARGE CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON
AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES RANGING FROM 35 TO
45 KNOTS. TC 24S IS LOCATED WITHIN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
STRONG (30 TO 40 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY
FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE THROUGH TAU 24. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN
INCREASINGLY WESTWARD AND ACCELERATE AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A STRONG HIGH ANCHORED TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE UKMO TRACKER, WHICH TRACKS THE SYSTEM EASTWARD
THROUGH TAU 72, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE
MODELS ARE NOW CONSISTENT IN TURNING TC 24S WESTWARD BUT DIFFER IN
THE TIMING OF THIS TURN. THE JTWC FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTION.
THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
AND SLIGHTLY FASTER TO OFFSET THE UKMO SOLUTION. BASED ON THE
IMPROVED MODEL AGREEMENT, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
AFTER TAU 12, VWS IS FORECAST TO RELAX, ALLOWING FOR FURTHER
CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION. TC 24S SHOULD PEAK AT ABOUT 70
KNOTS BY TAU 72 THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO THE INFUSION OF COOLER,
DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH TO THE SOUTH.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 102100Z AND 110900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130510 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JAMALA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JAMALA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 9.4S 86.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.4S 86.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 9.9S 87.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 10.4S 86.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 10.6S 86.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 10.8S 85.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 10.9S 82.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 10.8S 78.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 11.2S 74.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 9.5S 86.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JAMALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 854 NM
EASTWARD OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH A LARGE CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR IMAGERY
ALONG WITH A 101523Z AMSU-B IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. TC 24S IS LOCATED WITHIN A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG (30 TO 40 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC
24S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
THROUGH TAU 24. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN INCREASINGLY
WESTWARD AND ACCELERATE AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF A STRONG HIGH ANCHORED TO THE SOUTH. THE MODELS ARE NOW
CONSISTENT IN TURNING TC 24S WESTWARD BUT DIFFER IN
THE TIMING OF THIS TURN. THE JTWC FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTION.
THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
AND SLIGHTLY FASTER TO OFFSET THE UKMO SOLUTION. BASED ON THE
IMPROVED MODEL AGREEMENT, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
AFTER TAU 24, VWS IS FORECAST TO RELAX AND BECOME MORE IN PHASE WITH
STORM MOTION, ALLOWING FOR FURTHER CONSOLIDATION AND
INTENSIFICATION. TC 24S SHOULD PEAK AT ABOUT 65 KNOTS BY TAU 72 THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO THE INFUSION OF COOLER, DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z AND 112100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130511 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JAMALA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JAMALA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 10.6S 87.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.6S 87.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 11.0S 87.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 11.3S 86.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 11.3S 85.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 11.1S 83.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 11.3S 79.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 11.8S 74.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 12.1S 71.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 10.7S 87.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JAMALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 900 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED AND WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH BROKEN CONVECTION WELL DISPLACED FROM
THE LLCC IN THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED UPON THE MSI IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE DUE TO
THE WELL DEFINED AND EXPOSED NATURE OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 35 KNOTS AS DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 KNOTS AND THE LATEST CIRA RAMMB
PRODUCT SHOWS AN INTENSITY OF 37 KNOTS. TC 24S IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
WITHIN A POOR TO MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG (30 TO 40 KNOTS)
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BEING OFFSET BY
FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT DAY IN AN OVERALL WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT WHILE STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT
INTENSITY DUE TO THE STRONG VWS. AFTER TAU 24, TC 24S SHOULD TURN
WESTWARD AND ACCELERATE AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF A STRONG HIGH ANCHORED TO THE SOUTH. TC 24S SHOULD BEGIN TO
INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT TRACKS INTO A MORE FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OF LOWER VWS, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF
60 KNOTS NEAR TAU 96. AFTERWARDS, COOL DRY AIR FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH TO THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODELS CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT IN TURNING TC 24S
WESTWARD, BUT DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN THE TIMING OF THIS TURN AND THE
ACCELERATION OF THE WESTWARD TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, FAVORING THE ECMWF AND GFS
SOLUTIONS, DUE TO AN ERRATIC UKMO SOLUTION. DUE TO OVERALL GOOD
AGREEMENT OF THE DYNAMIC MODELS, HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z AND 120900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130511 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JAMALA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JAMALA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 10.6S 87.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.6S 87.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 11.0S 87.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 11.3S 86.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 11.3S 85.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 11.1S 83.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 11.3S 79.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 11.8S 74.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 12.1S 71.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 10.7S 87.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JAMALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 900 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED AND WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH BROKEN CONVECTION WELL DISPLACED FROM
THE LLCC IN THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED UPON THE MSI IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE DUE TO
THE WELL DEFINED AND EXPOSED NATURE OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 35 KNOTS AS DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 KNOTS AND THE LATEST CIRA RAMMB
PRODUCT SHOWS AN INTENSITY OF 37 KNOTS. TC 24S IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
WITHIN A POOR TO MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG (30 TO 40 KNOTS)
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BEING OFFSET BY
FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT DAY IN AN OVERALL WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT WHILE STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT
INTENSITY DUE TO THE STRONG VWS. AFTER TAU 24, TC 24S SHOULD TURN
WESTWARD AND ACCELERATE AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF A STRONG HIGH ANCHORED TO THE SOUTH. TC 24S SHOULD BEGIN TO
INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT TRACKS INTO A MORE FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OF LOWER VWS, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF
60 KNOTS NEAR TAU 96. AFTERWARDS, COOL DRY AIR FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH TO THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODELS CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT IN TURNING TC 24S
WESTWARD, BUT DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN THE TIMING OF THIS TURN AND THE
ACCELERATION OF THE WESTWARD TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, FAVORING THE ECMWF AND GFS
SOLUTIONS, DUE TO AN ERRATIC UKMO SOLUTION. DUE TO THE OVERALL GOOD
AGREEMENT OF THE DYNAMIC MODELS, HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z AND 120900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130511 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JAMALA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JAMALA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 10.6S 88.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 10.6S 88.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 11.0S 89.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 10.7S 88.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JAMALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 960 NM EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS UNRAVELED AND BECOME FULLY EXPOSED AS
VIRTUALLY ALL ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAVE DISSIPATED. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES ARE ALL BELOW WARNING CRITERIA.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 10 FEET.
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_jamala.htm | Updated: 13 May 2013 |