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![]() Tropical Cyclone PETA Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTXS21 PGTW 20130121 22:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.2S 120.7E TO 20.3S 116.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY, SYNOPTIC DATA AND RADAR DATA AT 212130Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 19.2S 120.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.7S 121.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2S 120.7E, APPROXIMATELY 415 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 211746Z AMSU IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE LLCC IS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LLCC. THE BROOME RADAR SHOWS A DEFINED LLCC WITH A RING OF FRAGMENTED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND STRONG CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE EAST (CONVERGENT FLOW) QUADRANT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MANDORA SHOW EASTERLY SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 KNOTS GUSTING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND SLP 1003 MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS) AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY MODEARTE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 222200Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20130122 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/212151ZJAN2013// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 221800Z --- NEAR 19.7S 117.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 117.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 20.0S 117.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 20.5S 116.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 21.0S 115.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 21.4S 114.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 21.6S 112.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 21.1S 109.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 19.9S 105.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 222100Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 117.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC. A 221736Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. THE PORT HEDLAND RADAR SHOWS A DEFINED LLCC WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC AND STRONG CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE SOUTHEAST (CONVERGENT FLOW) QUADRANT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM PORT HEDLAND AND BEDOUT ISLAND INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS AND SLP NEAR 1000 MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS) AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON THE AVAILABLE OBSERVATIONS AND IS BOLSTERED BY SCATTEROMETER DATA AND DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE RADAR IMAGERY. TC 12S IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFTER TAU 12. AFTER TROUGH PASSAGE, THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD WEST OF AUSTRALIA PROVING A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD STEERING INFLUENCE. TC 12S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS BY TAU 24 BUT SHOULD WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, INITIALLY, THEN WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER SST (24 TO 26C) AFTER TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 212151Z JAN 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 212200). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20130123 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (TWELVE) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (TWELVE) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 230000Z --- NEAR 20.2S 117.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 117.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 20.5S 116.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 21.0S 116.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 21.4S 115.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 21.7S 114.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 21.7S 111.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 21.0S 108.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 19.9S 105.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 230300Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 117.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE NOW OBSCURING THE LLCC. A 222336Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. ADDITIONALLY, THE PORT HEDLAND RADAR SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, TC 12S HAS TRACKED ERRATICALLY BUT HAS RECENTLY RESUMED A WESTWARD TRACK PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM LEGENDRE ISLAND, LOCATED 50 NM WEST OF THE CENTER, INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 KNOTS GUSTING UP TO 40 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS) AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE RADAR IMAGERY. TC 12S IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFTER TAU 12. AFTER TROUGH PASSAGE, THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD WEST OF AUSTRALIA PROVIDING A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD STEERING INFLUENCE. TC 12S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 40 KNOTS BY TAU 12 BUT SHOULD WEAKEN BY TAU 48 DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, INITIALLY, THEN WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER SST (24 TO 26C) AFTER TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20130123 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (PETA) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (PETA) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 230600Z --- NEAR 21.1S 117.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 117.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 21.9S 116.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 22.0S 116.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 22.1S 115.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 22.1S 113.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 21.8S 110.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 230900Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 117.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (PETA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE THAT CONTINUES TO OBSCURE THE LLCC. THE DAMPIER AUSTRALIA RADAR SHOWS A DEFINED CENTER WITH TIGHTLY- CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, TC 12S HAS TRACKED ERRATICALLY AND HAS RECENTLY MADE A SHARP TURN TO THE SOUTH, MOVING OVERLAND. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS) AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA AND PERSISTENCE AS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE BEGINNING TO CLIMB PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE RADAR IMAGERY. TC 12S IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH TAU 12. AFTER TROUGH PASSAGE, THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD WEST OF AUSTRALIA PROVIDING A WESTWARD STEERING INFLUENCE. TC 12S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN 35 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 48 AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE COAST AND THEN DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS INTO THE INDIAN OCEAN WITH COOL SSTS (24 TO 26C) AND INCREASING VWS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE SOONER THEN TAU 72 DUE TO THE LAND INTERACTION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100, 240300Z AND 240900Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20130123 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (PETA) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (PETA) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 231200Z --- NEAR 21.6S 117.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND REPEAT POSIT: 21.6S 117.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 22.1S 116.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 231500Z POSITION NEAR 21.7S 117.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (PETA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM EAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKENING SYSTEM AS CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED AND OVERALL STRUCTURE IS BEGINNING TO BECOME IRREGULAR. OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA ARE SHOWING RISING PRESSURES AND WINDS HAVE WEAKENED. RADAR IMAGERY FROM DAMPIER AUSTRALIA ALSO SHOWS A WEAKENING SIGNATURE AND THE LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BECOMING DIFFICULT TO DEFINE AS IT HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK OVER LAND. TC 12S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWEST AND STAY OVER LAND, WEAKENING BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD DUE TO THE LAND INTERACTION. THE REMNANTS OF TC 12S WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD TRACKING CLOSE TO LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA BUT WINDS WILL BE WEAK (15-20 KNOTS) DUE TO THE CONTINUED LAND INTERACTION AND AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AND WEAKENING TREND. GFS HAS TRACKED THE SYSTEM NORTH OVER WATER IN THE LATEST RUN, IN WHICH THERE WOULD BE A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF REGENERATION, BUT THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE WEAKENING TREND, CURRENT STORM MOTION AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
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Document: tropical_cyclone_peta.htm | Updated: 25 January 2013 |