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Tropical Cyclone RUSTY
Southern Hemisphere Summary
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Tropical Cyclone RUSTY Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTXS21 PGTW 20130223 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.3S 118.3E TO 18.4S 117.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
230230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.0S
117.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.6S
120.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 117.9E, APPROXIMATELY 485 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC.
A 230001Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO
A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LLCC. A SHIP OBSERVATION AT 23/00Z (16.7S
118.8), ABOUT 110 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER, SHOWED EASTERLY
WINDS AT 23 KNOTS WITH SLP NEAR 999 MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND DIFFLUENT FLOW. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM
WILL CONSOLIDATE QUICKLY AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARD UNDER THE UPPER-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
240300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20130224 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230251ZFEB2013//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 16.7S 118.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 118.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 17.4S 118.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 18.1S 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 18.7S 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 19.3S 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 20.0S 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 21.4S 118.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 23.3S 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 118.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM NORTH OF
PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTH QUADRANT
INTO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. A 232349Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE
DEPICTS MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE LLCC.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM ROWLEY SHOALS, APPROXIMATELY 70 NM
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER, INDICATE SUSTAINED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF
20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH SLP NEAR 993 MB AND A SIGNIFICANT 24-HOUR SLP
DECREASE OF 7 MB. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35
KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW. TC
17S IS TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AND IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. TC 17S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY
AFTER TAU 24 TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS PRIOR TO MAKING
LANDFALL NEAR PORT HEDLAND. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER
LAND BY TAU 120 AS IT RECURVES AHEAD OF A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI 230251Z FEB 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21
PGTW 230300). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z AND 250300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S
(HARUNA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20130224 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (RUSTY) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (RUSTY) WARNING NR 002
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 17.4S 117.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 117.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 17.8S 118.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 18.2S 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 18.6S 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 19.1S 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 20.2S 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 23.3S 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 27.6S 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 117.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (RUSTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
(IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING AND SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING NOW WRAPPING IN ALL QUADRANTS AND BUILDING
CENTRAL CONVECTION, WHICH IS READILY APPARENT IN A 241224Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
BASED ON THE SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE AND THE IR LOOP. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM KNES AND APRF. THE INTENSITY IS
ADDITIONALLY SUPPORTED BY RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS TC 17S IS DEVELOPING A POINT SOURCE
ANTICYCLONE, WHICH IS GIVING WAY TO AMPLE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (5
TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 17S IS TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 17S
IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72 TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 95
KNOTS PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL NEAR PORT HEDLAND. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 120 DUE TO LAND INTERACTION
AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
SOUTHERN TRACK, THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS BE AT 242100Z AND
250900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HARUNA) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) AND TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20130224 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (RUSTY) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (RUSTY) WARNING NR 003
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 17.7S 118.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 118.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 18.3S 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 18.7S 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 19.3S 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 19.8S 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 20.6S 117.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 23.2S 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 27.2S 117.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 118.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (RUSTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM
NORTH OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A 20-NM EYE. A
241834Z AMSU IMAGE AND PORT HEDLAND RADAR DEPICT AN INTENSE SPIRAL
BAND EXTENDING FROM BROOME WESTWARD OVER PORT HEDLAND THEN WRAPPING
INTO THE WESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG
THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA INDICATE PERSISTENT GALE-FORCE
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SPIRAL BAND. BASED ON THE EYE FIXES,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS, HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS, BASED ON THE IMPRESSIVE STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN
SATELLITE, MICROWAVE AND RADAR IMAGERY. TC 17S IS TRACKING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) AND IS
FORECAST TO TURN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE WESTERN BRANCH OF THE
STR BUILDS TEMPORARILY INTO WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THE RECENT UPPER-AIR
SOUNDING PROVIDES EVIDENCE THAT THE STR IS ALREADY BUILDING OVER
WESTERN AUSTRALIA WITH SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-
TO MID-LEVELS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD A MORE
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 12, THEREFORE
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WAS SHIFTED ACCORDINGLY. AFTER MAKING
LANDFALL NEAR TAU 72, TC 17S SHOULD TURN SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF A DEEP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. TC 17S HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 18
HOURS WITH A 25-KNOT INCREASE IN INTENSITY SINCE 24/00Z AND IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING THROUGH LANDFALL DUE TO
RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WARM SST. TC 17S IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SLOWLY
OVERLAND BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BELOW 35 KNOTS BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
250900Z AND 252100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HARUNA) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20130225 09;00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (RUSTY) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (RUSTY) WARNING NR 004
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 18.2S 119.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 119.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 19.0S 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 19.6S 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 20.1S 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 20.7S 118.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 22.6S 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 26.3S 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 119.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (RUSTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM
NORTHEAST OF OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED AS CONVECTIVE BANDS
DEEPENED AND WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATED
FROM A 250518Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND APRF TO REFLECT THE OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IN THE
STRUCTURE OF TC 17S. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
JUST SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH BIAS TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST.
THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH
(STH) OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. THE STH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE
NEXT 72 HOURS CAUSING TC 17S TO TRACK ON A MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
TRAJECTORY. AFTER TAU 72, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL WEAKEN THE STH AND CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO REVERT TO A
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. TC RUSTY WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS HIGHLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. AFTER TAU 24, THE CYCLONE WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR PORT
HEDLAND. LAND INTERACTION AND INCREASING VWS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE
CYCLONE. TC 17S WILL DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TC OVER LAND BY TAU
96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 252100Z AND 260900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S
(EIGHTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. //
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20130225 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (RUSTY) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (RUSTY) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 18.8S 119.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S 119.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 19.2S 119.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 19.7S 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 20.5S 118.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 21.4S 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 25.0S 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 29.1S 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 119.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (RUSTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED OVER
WESTERN AUSTRALIA. A 251823Z AMSU IMAGE AND PORT HEDLAND RADAR
IMAGERY SHOW A BROAD (60 TO 70 NM DIAMETER) CENTER WITH INTENSE
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION DUE TO THE LARGE NATURE OF THE
CENTER ALTHOUGH RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM IS
DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT
75 KNOTS BASED ON THE HIGHER RANGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES. TC
17S IS TRACKING SLOWLY ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUT IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AS THE WESTERN BRANCH OF THE STR BUILDS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER TAU 72, TC 17S WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD TO
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE UKMO TRACKER, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. TC 17S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS AT TAU 24.
AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN OVERLAND AND DISSIPATE BY TAU
96. DUE TO THE BROAD CENTER AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT-TERM TRACK,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
260900Z AND 262100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN)
WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20130226 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (RUSTY) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (RUSTY) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 19.4S 119.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S 119.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 19.8S 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 20.6S 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 21.4S 118.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 22.5S 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 25.7S 119.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 19.5S 119.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (RUSTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A
RAGGED EYE EVEN AS CONVECTIVE BANDS BEGAN TO SLIGHTLY UNWIND. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND FROM A RADAR
COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY LOOP FROM PORT HEDLAND WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND APRF. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH BIAS TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH
(STH)OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. AFTER TAU 36, THE STH IS EXPECTED TO BE
WEAKENED BY THE APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND CAUSE TC 17S TO
REVERT TO A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. TC RUSTY MAY SLIGHTLY
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS HIGHLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 12,
HOWEVER, THE CYCLONE WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR PORT HEDLAND AND BEGIN
TO WEAKEN AS LAND INTERACTION AND INCREASING VWS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE
THE CYCLONE. TC 17S WILL DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TC OVER LAND BY
TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 262100Z AND 270900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S
(EIGHTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. //
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20130226 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (RUSTY) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (RUSTY) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 19.3S 119.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 00 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S 119.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 19.6S 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 20.0S 119.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 21.2S 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 22.8S 119.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 27.0S 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 119.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (RUSTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS BEEN STATIONARY OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
RECENT INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE EYEWALL STRUCTURE. THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS SLOWED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS AND FOR THE PAST SIX HOURS HAS BEEN COMPLETELY STATIONARY. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST ARE VERY FAVORABLE (32 DEGREES
CELSIUS) AND HAVE BEEN ENHANCING THE SYSTEMS INTENSITY, WHICH IS
CURRENTLY AT 95 KNOTS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, APRF RANGING FROM 90 TO 105 KNOTS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES RADIAL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE
INTENSIFICATION, WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SOUTH OF THE LLCC
PROVIDING ADDITIONAL SUPPORT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
THE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A
SUBTROPICAL HIGH (STH) LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA, WHICH HAS
BEEN THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
TRACK EASTWARD, THE STH SHOULD RE-ENGAGE CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO TRACK
SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA. INTENSITY SHOULD PERSIST OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS UNTIL TC 17S MAKES LANDFALL AROUND TAU 24. BEYOND
TAU 36 INCREASING LAND INTERACTION AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
QUICKLY LEAD TO DISSIPATION OF TC 17S AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK AND WEAKENING
SCENARIO ONCE THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL. BASED ON THE GOOD AGREEMENT
IN MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 270900Z AND 272100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN)
WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20130227 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (RUSTY) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (RUSTY) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 19.7S 119.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 119.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 20.7S 119.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 22.2S 119.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 24.4S 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 20.0S 119.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (RUSTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 60NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE EYEWALL STRUCTURE IS
BEGINNING TO ERODE AS THE EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD FILLED AS TC 17S
APPROACHES THE COAST, EAST OF PORT HEDLAND. RADAR IMAGERY FROM PORT
HEDLAND ALSO SUPPORTS THE WEAKENING OF THE EYE AS THE EYEWALL ON THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE HAS COLLAPSED AND THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE
EYE HAS BECOME RAGGED. THERE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION
BASED ON THE RADAR IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 80
KNOTS AS DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, APRF
RANGE FROM 77 TO 90 KNOTS AND OBSERVATIONS FROM BEDOUT ISLAND,
AUSTRALIA ONLY SHOWED 53 KNOTS OF SUSTAINED WINDS, WITH GUST UP TO
64 KNOTS, WHEN THE EYEWALL PASSED OVER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES RADIAL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO PERSIST, WITH ADDITIONAL
ENHANCEMENT OF THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL BEING PROVIDED BY A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM IN AN OVERALL WEAK (05-10 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. TC 17S IS FORECAST TO IMMINENTLY
MAKE LANDFALL AND TRACK SOUTH UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. AS TC 17S MAKES
LANDFALL, THE INCREASED LAND INTERACTION WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM ALLOWING FOR DISSAPATION BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SOUTHERN TRACK AND WEAKENING SCENARIO,
WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES IN TRACK SPEED. BASED ON THE OVERALL TIGHT
AGREEMENT IN MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 21
FEET. NEXT WARNING AT 271500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20130227 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (RUSTY) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (RUSTY) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 20.3S 119.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 119.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 21.5S 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 23.2S 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 119.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (RUSTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 65NM EAST
OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DECREASING CONVECTION AND AN OVERALL ELONGATION OF THE SYSTEM
AS TC 17S HAS MADE LANDFALL AND STEADILY WEAKENED. RADAR IMAGERY
FROM PORT HEDLAND ALSO SUPPORTS THE WEAKENING TREND AS THE EYE HAS
COLLAPSED AND THE CONVECTION IN THE BANDING FEATURES CONTINUES TO
DECREASE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON
THE RADAR IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS
BASED ON THE WEAKENING TREND SEEN IN THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT DESPITE THE PERSISTENT FAVORABLE
OUTFLOW, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS INCREASING AND IS NOW ASSESSED AT
MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) LEVELS. TC 17S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH AND
MOVE MORE INLAND AS IT RAPIDLY WEAKENS DUE TO THE LAND INTERACTION
AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK AND MAINTAINING THE SYSTEM OVER
LAND AS IT QUICKLY WEAKENS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_rusty.htm | Updated: 1 March 2013 |