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Tropical Cyclone SANDRA
Southern Hemisphere Summary
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Tropical Cyclone SANDRA Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTPS21 PGTW 20130306 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.7S 152.0E TO 15.9S 157.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
060000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.7S
153.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.4S
150.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.7S 153.4E, APPROXIMATELY 215NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED BUT CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC
AND IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING IN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
PERIPHERIES. A 052233Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS THE OVERALL ELONGATED
ORIENTATION OF THE SYSTEM AS IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND ALSO SHOWS THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE
PERIPHERIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A DEVELOPING
ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE CENTER WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. THE LLCC IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (10-20
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH AREAS OF STRONG VWS LOCATED
JUST TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORABLE AT 28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS
ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
070300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS21 PGTW 20130307 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060251ZMAR2013//
AMPN/ REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.1S 154.2E TO 15.4S 158.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
062330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.0S
154.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.7S
153.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 154.8E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM EAST
OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED BUT CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC. OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS BANDING HAS BEEN FLARING WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENTS. A 062304Z ASCAT PASS INDICATED THE WINDS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY HAVE STARTED TO WRAP INTO THE EASTERN QUADRANT,
WITH SPEEDS FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS. STRONG GRADIENT WINDS REMAIN ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY, WITH SPEEDS FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE CENTER
WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE LLCC IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) WITH AREAS OF STRONG VWS LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE AT 28 TO 30
DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27
TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
080300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20130307 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 15.4S 156.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 156.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 15.2S 157.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 15.2S 158.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 15.4S 158.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 15.7S 159.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 16.8S 160.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 18.5S 161.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 20.7S 162.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 156.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 660 NM NORTHWEST OF
NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE CONVECTIVE BANDS, ALTHOUGH STILL FRAGMENTED, HAVE EXPANDED,
DEEPENED AND WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE MAIN CONVECTIVE AREA IS SLIGHTLY
DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A
071043Z ASCAT PASS AND FROM A 071041Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH
POOR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS FROM ABRF. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS IN THE VICINITY OF AN ANTICYCLONE IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS); HOWEVER,
THE ANTICYCLONE IS ALSO PRIMARILY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE EXCELLENT
RADIAL OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. AFTER TAU
48, AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD AND ASSUME STEERING, BRINGING THE CYCLONE TO A MORE
SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY. DUE TO STRONG OUTFLOW AND RELATIVELY LOW
VWS, TC 19P IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY, PEAKING AT 95 KNOTS
BY TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH
GFDN TO THE EXTREME LEFT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE AND GFS DEPICTING A
TIGHT CLOCKWISE RECURVATURE INTO AUSTRALIA. THIS FORECAST IS LAID
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI
070251Z MAR 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 070300)
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 080300Z AND 081500Z. //
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20130308 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (SANDRA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (SANDRA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 14.8S 156.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 156.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 14.8S 157.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 15.0S 158.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 15.3S 158.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 15.7S 159.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 17.0S 161.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 19.6S 162.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 22.9S 164.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 156.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (SANDRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 710 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER A WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON AN EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 072121Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE, CLOSE TO THE
KNES AND ABRF CENTER FIXES, WITH POOR CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE
EXTRAPOLATION METHOD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES (PGTW,
KNES, AND ABRF). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS WEST
OF AN ANTICYCLONE IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT)
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS AMPLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH ENHANCED EASTWARD OUTFLOW INTO
DEEP TROUGHING NEAR THE DATELINE. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS SLIGHT
POLEWARD ENHANCEMENT TO THE OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. AFTER TAU
48, AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD AND ASSUME STEERING, BRINGING THE CYCLONE TO A MORE
SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY. ALL ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SUPPORT FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A PEAK OF 95 KNOTS
EXPECTED BY TAU 72. TC 19S SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY TAU 120 AS VWS
INCREASES AND OCEAN PARAMETERS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE. MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH GFS CONTINUING TO DEPICT A CURVE TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND NOGAPS SHOWING A SLOW DRIFT TO THE SOUTH. THE ONLY
MODEL TRACKER THAT HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT AND VERIFIED THE BEST IS
THE ECMWF. THEREFORE, THE CURRENT FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO ITS
SOLUTION AND REMAINS INLINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DUE TO THE
POOR MODEL AGREEMENT, TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
081500Z AND 090300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20130308 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (SANDRA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (SANDRA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 14.9S 157.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 157.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 15.2S 158.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 15.6S 159.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 16.1S 160.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 16.7S 160.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 18.5S 162.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 20.8S 163.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 23.5S 164.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 157.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (SANDRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 645 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEPENED CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM AN EYE FEATURE ON A
080957Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
DEVELOPING EYE IN THE SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS WEST OF AN ANTICYCLONE IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AMPLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH ENHANCED
EASTWARD OUTFLOW INTO DEEP TROUGHING NEAR THE DATELINE. ADDITIONALLY,
THERE IS SLIGHT POLEWARD ENHANCEMENT TO THE OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE.
AFTER TAU 48, AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD AND ASSUME STEERING, BRINGING THE CYCLONE TO A MORE
SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY. ALL ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SUPPORT FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A PEAK OF 100 KNOTS
EXPECTED BY TAU 72. TC 19S SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY TAU 96 AS VWS
INCREASES AND OCEAN PARAMETERS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE. MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH GFS THE SLOWEST AND TO THE RIGHT
OF CONSENSUS. THE CURRENT FORECAST LIES JUST TO THE LEFT OF AND
FASTER THAN CONSENSUS TO OFFSET GFS. DUE TO THE IMPROVED MODEL
AGREEMENT, THERE IS NOW A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 090300Z AND 091500Z. //
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20130309 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (SANDRA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (SANDRA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 15.3S 158.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 158.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 15.8S 159.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 16.4S 159.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 17.0S 160.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 17.7S 160.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 20.0S 162.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 21.8S 163.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 23.9S 164.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 158.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (SANDRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 615 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLES OF A DEVELOPING YET RAGGED AND
POORLY DEFINED EYE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI AND A 082309Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES
OF 65 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS JUST WEST OF A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE IN AN AREA OF
LIGHT (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH FAVORABLE POLAR
AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TC 19P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO THIS TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT TWO DAYS. AFTER TAU 48, AN
EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY AND ASSUME STEERING, GIVING TC 19P A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERN
COMPONENT. THE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS WILL ALLOW
TC 19P TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48,
SHARPLY INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED AND THE EXTENT OF
THE SOUTHERN TRACK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH BASED UPON THE
FAIR AGREEMENT OF THE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z AND 100300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20130309 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (SANDRA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (SANDRA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 15.7S 159.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 159.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 16.3S 160.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 16.9S 161.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 17.8S 161.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 19.0S 162.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 21.7S 163.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 23.5S 164.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 25.4S 165.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 159.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (SANDRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CONSOLIDATED SLIGHTLY OVER THE
PAST TWELVE HOURS WITH INTENSE DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED PRIMARILY
OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND A BANDING EYE. DESPITE THE
ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, A 090945Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS
TOGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A THICK RING SURROUNDING A MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE, WHICH MAY INDICATE AN IMMINENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION
PHASE. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE
DEVELOPING EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED
ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. TC 19P IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE
BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWARD AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A POLEWARD-ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, POSITIONED TO
THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. TC 19P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
SHARPLY THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER SST
AND BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH AN ENCROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z AND 101500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20130310 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (SANDRA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (SANDRA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 15.9S 160.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 160.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 16.7S 161.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 17.7S 161.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 19.0S 162.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 20.3S 162.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 23.3S 163.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 25.9S 163.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 29.3S 163.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 160.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (SANDRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED OVER PAST
TWELVE HOURS WITH DEEP CONVECTION NOW COMPLETELY WRAPPING AROUND A
15NM RAGGED EYE. THIS IS READILY APPARENT IN A 092248Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
BASED ON THE READILY VISIBLE EYE IN THE MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 85 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 77 TO 90 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES,
RESPECTIVELY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A CONTINUED FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT AS AMPLE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS WITHIN
A LOW (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. TC 19P IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT
TRANSITIONS TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A POLEWARD-ORIENTED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND INCREASE TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE.
AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH TO SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD SLOWLY DECREASING IN INTENSITY AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. AFTER TAU 72,
DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR A FURTHER
DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
NEAR TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO SPLIT INTO TWO
DIFFERENT SETS OF SOLUTIONS. GFS, GFDN AND NAVGEM FAVOR A SHARPER
TURN TO THE SOUTH IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS WHILE ECMWF, EGRR AND JGSM
TEND TO SHOW A MORE GRADUAL TURN TO THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DUE TO THIS BIFURCATION OF THE MODELS, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
LIES CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND FAVORS THE ECMWF SOLUTION
WHICH HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT STORM MOTION. DUE TO
THIS SPREAD IN THE MODELS, THERE IS NOW LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 28
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z AND 110300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20130310 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (SANDRA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (SANDRA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 16.5S 161.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 161.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 17.6S 161.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 19.1S 162.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 20.8S 162.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 22.5S 163.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 25.6S 164.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 28.3S 164.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 31.4S 164.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 161.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (SANDRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 455 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM
WITH A 30 NM ROUND EYE AND A LARGE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. BASED ON
THE EYE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND RECENT
MOTION. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, TC 19P HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED FROM
65 TO 110 KNOTS WITH IMPROVED, NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGHER END OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 102 TO 115 KNOTS. TC 19P HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD MOTION
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND HAS TURNED MORE SOUTHWARD AS IT BEGINS
TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
POSITIONED TO THE EAST. TC 19P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 96 AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A
WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR LATITUDE 30S. THE SYSTEM SHOULD COMPLETE
ETT BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE
BULK OF THE MODELS SUPPORTING THE CURRENT JTWC FORECAST TRACK. GFS
REMAINS AN OUTLIER, CONTINUING TO SHOW AN UNLIKELY SHARP
SOUTHWESTWARD TURN AFTER TAU 72; HOWEVER, ANALYSIS OF THE MODEL
FIELDS INDICATES THAT THE GFS MODEL IS ERRONEOUSLY MERGING THE
SYSTEM INTO AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. TC 19P IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS BY TAU 12 AND
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 36 AS THE SYSTEM
ENCOUNTERS STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND TRACKS OVER COOLER SST. A
SHARPER WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED AFTER TAU 72 AS TC 19P TRACKS
OVER VERY COLD SST (LESS THAN 23C). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 101200Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z AND 111500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20130311 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (SANDRA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (SANDRA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 17.1S 161.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 161.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 18.3S 162.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 19.7S 162.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 21.4S 163.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 23.2S 163.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 27.2S 164.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 31.0S 164.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 161.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (SANDRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A TIGHTLY-WRAPPED SYSTEM WITH A 15NM PARTIALLY
CLOUD FILLED EYE WITH THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE DECREASING.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EYE
FEATURE SEEN IN THE MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 105
KNOTS BASED UPON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 102
TO 115 KNOTS AND THE OVERALL WEAKENING TREND SEEN IN THE STORM
STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
HAS INCREASED TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) LEVELS OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS BEGINNING TO DECREASE. TC 19P HAS
CONTINUED ITS SLOW SOUTHEAST MOTION AS IT TRANSITIONS STEERING
INFLUENCES FROM THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST. TC 19P IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WEAKENING
AS ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE. TC 19P IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 72 AS IT INTERACTS
WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH OF NEW CALEDONIA, AND COMPLETE ETT
BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH GFS REMAINING THE WESTERN OUTLIER. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND FAVORS THE ECMWF
SOLUTION IN THE LATER TAUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
110000Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z AND 120300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20130311 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (SANDRA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (SANDRA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 18.2S 162.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 162.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 19.4S 162.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 20.9S 162.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 22.7S 162.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 24.7S 163.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 28.9S 164.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 162.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (SANDRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS WITH DEEP CONVECTION DECREASING IN AREAL EXTENT. A
111058Z METOP-A IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER WITH A MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE; HOWEVER, DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS BECOME MORE
FRAGMENTED. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED
ON THE METOP-A IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS
BASED ON THE LOWER END OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 90
TO 102 KNOTS. TC 19P IS TRACKING SLOWLY ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST. SINCE
THE STR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED, TC 19P IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 72. THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 48 AND
SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE BULK OF THE MODELS SUPPORTING THE CURRENT JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. TC 19P IS TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 24 AS
THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND TRACKS OVER
COOLER SST. A SHARPER WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED AFTER TAU 36 AS TC
19P TRACKS OVER VERY COLD SST (LESS THAN 23C). OVERALL, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z AND 121500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20130312 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (SANDRA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (SANDRA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 20.0S 161.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 161.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 21.6S 162.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 23.3S 162.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 25.2S 162.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 27.3S 163.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 31.3S 163.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 20.4S 162.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (SANDRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME LESS SYMMETRIC AND ITS EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD-FILLED
AS CONVECTIVE BANDS LOOSENED AND DECREASED IN AREAL EXTENT. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND
NFFN. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED FURTHER SOUTH
INTO AN AREA OF STRONG (25-30 KNOT) NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
CYCLONE HAS SPED UP AND IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). TC 19P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 72. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 48 AND SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BULK OF THE MODELS SUPPORTING THE
CURRENT JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC SANDRA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN ASVERTICAL
WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND ALONG-TRACK SSTS BECOME COOLER.
OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z
AND 130300Z. //
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20130312 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (SANDRA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (SANDRA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 21.9S 161.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.9S 161.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 23.8S 161.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 25.8S 161.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 27.8S 161.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 29.8S 161.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 33.6S 162.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 22.4S 161.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (SANDRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
WEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS A RAPID LOSS OF ORGANIZATION TO THE DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) MOVES
FURTHER SOUTH INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. THE EIR DOES INDICATE THE LLCC REMAINS TIGHTLY WRAPPED,
BUT IS STARTING TO BE IMPACTED BY DRY AIR ALONG THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PERIPHERY AS INDICATED BY ANIMATED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, PHFO AND NFFN. TC 19P HAS BEEN STEADILY
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR). MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY TRACK THROUGH
TAU 72 WITH THE LLCC STARTING AN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AROUND
TAU 36 AND COMPLETING THE PROCESS BY TAU 72. DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND ALREADY HIGH LEVELS OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30 TO 40 KNOTS) WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BASED ON THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z AND 131500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20130313 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (SANDRA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (SANDRA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 23.6S 161.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.6S 161.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 25.6S 161.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 28.1S 161.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 30.6S 160.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 32.0S 160.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 24.1S 161.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (SANDRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER HAS BECOME ALMOST FULLY EXPOSED AS THE CONVECTION HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED AND SHEARED SOUTHWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW,
PHFO, AND NFFN. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED
WELL SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND INTO AN AREA OF STRONG (30-40) KNOT
NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALONG THIS TRACK UNTIL IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND BECOMES A COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 48. TC 19P WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS STRONG VWS PERSISTS AND SSTS DROP TO BELOW 25 CELSIUS AFTER
TAU 24. THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT TC SANDRA WILL DISSIPATE
BEFORE END OF FORECAST DUE TO THE HIGH VWS AND LOW SSTS. THE JTWC
FORECAST IS LAID WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS
DESPITE THE MODERATE SPREAD IN THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 131500Z AND 140300Z. //
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20130313 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (SANDRA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (SANDRA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 25.9S 162.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.9S 162.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 28.5S 161.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 31.0S 161.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 33.4S 161.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 26.6S 162.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (SANDRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM
SOUTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BEEN FULLY
EXPOSED FOR THE PAST 18 HOURS BUT REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED. A RECENT
131015Z ASCAT PASS INDICATED 35 TO 40 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED ABOVE THE
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, PHFO, AND NFFN, WHICH INDICATE A MUCH
WEAKER SYSTEM THAN THE ASCAT PASS SUGGESTS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY AND HAS NEARLY SEPARATED THE CENTRAL CORE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE LARGER SOURCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE
NORTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST ARE CREATING HIGH LEVELS (30 TO 40
KNOTS) OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). CONTINUED INFLOW OF DRY AIR AND
HIGH VWS WILL START THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS, AND WILL BE FULLY EXTRA-TROPICAL BY TAU 36. BASED ON
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 20
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z AND 141500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20130314 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (SANDRA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (SANDRA) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 29.1S 162.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 29.1S 162.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 31.2S 161.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 29.6S 162.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (SANDRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 465 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS
BECOME ELONGATED ALONG AN EAST TO WEST AXIS AND REMAINED FULLY-
EXPOSED DURING THE LAST TWELVE HOURS. THE REMAINING CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS DISPLACED OVER THE RIGHT FRONT
QUADRANT AND STRATOCUMULUS FIELDS CAN BE SEEN STREAMING IN FROM THE
EAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND PGTW FIX WITH
POOR CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE POORLY-DEFINED NATURE OF THE LLCC. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A PRIOR 131109Z ASCAT PASS THAT SHOWED
A LARGE 40-45 KNOT WIND FIELD OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION AND A MORE RECENT 38-42 KNOT OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE, AS SUBJECTIVE DVORAKS DO NOT ACCURATELY CLASSIFY THE
SYSTEM'S CURRENT STATE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 19P IS
LOCATED WELL POLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND JUST EAST OF
A DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL LOW. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS HIGH AT 30-40
KNOTS AND UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS POLEWARD OF THE LLCC DUE TO
SPEED DIVERGENCE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL JET FLOW OVERHEAD. BASED ON
THE ABOVEMENTIONED DYNAMICS OVER TC 19P AND 25 DEGREE CELSIUS SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, THE SYSTEM IS ASSESSED AS EXTRA-TROPICAL AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO A MODERATE MID-LATITUDE COLD-CORE
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 19 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P
(TIM) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_sandra.htm | Updated: 14 March 2013 |