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Tropical Cyclone TIM Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTPS21 PGTW 20130312 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
185 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.9S 139.9E TO 13.8S 147.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN
THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
122030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.7S
140.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.5S 139.4E, IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7S 140.9E, APPROXIMATELY 85 NM WEST OF TIP OF
CAPE YORK PENINSULA, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A RADAR REFLECTIVITY LOOP FROM WEIPA DEPICT A BROAD, ELONGATED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITHIN AN EXPANSIVE TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF
CARPENTARIA. A 121529Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION IS ALONG A FORMATIVE BAND TO THE NORTH THAT IS BEGINNING
TO CURL INTO THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
(10-20 KNOT) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR; HOWEVER, THIS IS ALSO
PROVIDING A GOOD EASTWARD OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THE OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER EAST. NUMERIC WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS,
INCLUDING GFS, NAVGEM, AND ECMWF ARE FORECASTING THIS CYCLONE TO
DEVELOP TO A 35-KNOT SYSTEM IN 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. SEE REF B (WTPS21 PGTW 122100) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
132100Z. //
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20130313 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TWENTY) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/122051Z MAR 13//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TWENTY) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 13.0S 146.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S 146.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 14.0S 148.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 15.0S 151.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 15.8S 152.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 16.7S 153.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.7S 153.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 18.7S 152.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 19.6S 150.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 13.3S 147.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 20P (TWENTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A MOSAIC OF RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A HOOK OF DEEP CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES, FURTHER VERIFYING THE IMPROVED WRAPPING OF
CONVECTION AROUND THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON FIXES
FROM PGTW, KNES, AND ABRF, AS WELL AS AN EXTRAPOLATION FROM A
131526Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE, WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW AND ABRF, AS WELL AS A 131448Z OSCAT PASS WHICH REVEALED 30
KNOT WINDS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 20P IS SOUTH OF A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) AXIS, PROVIDING GOOD SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL
DIVERGENCE TO PROMOTE OUTFLOW. SOME DATA SUGGESTS A POINT SOURCE IS
FORMING OVERHEAD. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS CURRENTLY
MODERATE, AT 15-20 KNOTS. TD 20P IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL NER TO THE NORTH. AFTER TAU 36, THIS
STEERING MECHANISM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BE GRADUALLY REPLACED
BY A DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST, WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P. STORM MOTION WILL
SLOW AS THE STEERING TRANSITION TAKES PLACE, ALLOWING FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION, TO A PEAK OF 75 KNOTS. AROUND TAU 72, THE BUILDING
STR WILL DEFLECT TD 20P WESTWARD, BACK TOWARD THE AUSTRALIAN COAST.
INCREASING VWS AFTER TAU 72 SHOULD START TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 122051Z MAR 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 122100 ). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
131800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z AND 142100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (SANDRA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20130314 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TIM) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TIM) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 14.9S 149.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 149.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 16.0S 152.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 16.7S 153.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 17.6S 154.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 18.5S 155.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 19.3S 154.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 19.4S 152.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 18.5S 150.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 150.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (TIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM NORTH
OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 140527Z SSMI IMAGE DEPICTS A
WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON THIS IMAGE AS WELL AS WILLIS ISLAND RADAR IMAGERY WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS, AND IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM WILLIS
ISLAND INDICATE PEAK SUSTAINED WINDS OF 37 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45
KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL JET POSITIONED OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA
NEAR LATITUDE 20S. TC 20P IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS BY TAU 36, DUE TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT
TRACKS INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CAUSED BY
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH. FORWARD
MOTION WILL SLOW AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENS. AFTER TAU 72, TC 20P WILL DISSPATE AND
THE REMNANTS WILL TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
STRONG LOW-LEVEL HIGH, FORECAST TO BUILD INTO EASTERN AUSTRALIA.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN
THE WEAKENING PHASE AND TIMING OF THE TURN WESTWARD, THEREFORE,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT JTWC FORECAST TRACK. OVERALL,
THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN THEIR DEPICTION OF THE EVOLVING
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 24
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z AND 150900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 19P (SANDRA) FINAL WARNING (WTPS31 PGTW).//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20130314 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TIM) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TIM) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 15.3S 152.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 152.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 16.1S 153.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 16.8S 154.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.4S 154.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 18.0S 154.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 18.0S 152.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 17.4S 151.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 16.6S 149.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 152.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (TIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT
POSITION ESTIMATE IS BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND
ABRF AND A 141653Z AMSU-B IMAGE. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 55 KNOTS
IS SET SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN A CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, CONSISTENT WITH RECENT AUTOMATED
INTENSITY ANALYSES. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SLIGHTLY-SHEARED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AMSU-B PASS. TC 20P CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO SLOW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE REORIENTS
AND THE CYCLONE ENTERS A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. INCREASING
WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFTER TAU 36 WILL STEADILY WEAKEN TC
20P, AND THE SYSTEM WILL SUBSEQUENTLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD FOLLOWING
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER
TURN THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS CHANGE REFLECTS THE LATEST
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE ANTICIPATED WEAKENING TREND IN THE
MEDIUM TO EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH DIFFERENCES THAT ARE ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE
WEAKENING PHASE AND TIMING OF THE NORTHWESTWARD TURN. GIVEN
DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
141800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z AND 152100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20130315 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TIM) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TIM) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 16.1S 154.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 154.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 16.6S 154.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.2S 154.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.7S 154.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 18.0S 153.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 17.8S 151.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 154.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (TIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM EAST
OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT TC 20P HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH
DECREASING CENTRAL CONVECTION DISPLACED PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
HOWEVER, A 150653Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW TIGHTLY-
CURVED BANDING AND A WEAK MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, THEREFORE, THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
DECREASED TO 45 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM ALL AGENCIES. TC 20P IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO INCREASINGLY
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. FORWARD MOTION WILL SLOW DUE TO A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 48, TC 20P WILL DISSIPATE AND THE REMNANTS
WILL TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A STRONG LOW-
LEVEL HIGH FORECAST TO BUILD INTO EASTERN AUSTRALIA. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE WEAKENING
PHASE AND TIMING OF THE TURN WESTWARD, THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT JTWC FORECAST TRACK. OVERALL, THE MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT IN THEIR DEPICTION OF THE EVOLVING SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 152100Z AND 160900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20130315 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TIM) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TIM) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 17.1S 154.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 154.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.8S 154.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 18.4S 153.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 18.5S 153.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 18.6S 152.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 154.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (TIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255 NM EAST
OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE WARMED AND THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) HAS
SHRUNK OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, THE CDO APPEARS TO BE
DISPLACED SOUTHWARD OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND FROM A 151642Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
AVERAGED FROM DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35-45 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST SOUTH OF THE RIDGE
AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE
CYCLONE IS APPROACHING A COL AREA BETWEEN THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. TC 20P IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY IN THE COL AREA OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS
BEFORE IT IS DEFLECTED WESTWARD AS THE STR ASSUMES STEERING. THE
SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY IN THE COL AREA THEN
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER IT MOVES WESTWARD AS DRY AIR INTRUDES FROM
THE SOUTH INTO THE LLCC AND MODERATE VWS PERSISTS ALOFT. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BECOME SPLIT WITH GFDN, NAVGEM, AND WBAR
CONTINUING A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AND EGRR, ECMWF, GFS, AND JGSM
DEPICT A WESTWARD RECURVE. GFDN AND NAVGEM EVENTUALLY DEFLECT THE
VORTEX WESTWARD AT TAU 72. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z AND 162100Z. //
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20130316 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TIM) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TIM) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 17.3S 153.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 153.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.6S 153.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 17.8S 153.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 18.0S 152.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 153.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (TIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A RECENT INCREASE IN CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER THE PAST
THREE HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS WELL
ORGANIZED WITH STRONGER GRADIENT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY
FEEDING INTO THE CENTRAL CORE. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
SHOWS A STEADY INCREASE IN DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY AND A SHRINKING OF THE LLCC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35
KNOTS IS BASED ON A 2.5/2.5 DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW AND IS
SUPPORTED BY A 160140Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS NEAR
THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE
SYSTEM AND RIDGING EXTENDING FROM NEW CALEDONIA INTO THE CORAL SEA
ARE CREATING A MODERATE TO HIGH (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) ENVIRONMENT. TC 20P IS SLOWLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF A WEAKENING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND WILL SHIFT TO A
WESTERN TRACK AS A LOW LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
WESTWARD, THE STEADY VWS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL CAUSE THE
EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM BY TAU 36. BASED ON THE WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT, AS THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE SHIFTS, AND
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A WIDE VARIATION IN TRACK SOLUTIONS, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z AND 170900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20130316 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TIM) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TIM) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 18.0S 153.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 153.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 18.4S 152.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 18.6S 151.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 18.7S 150.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 152.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (TIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FLARING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
CONVECTION THAT IS DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC REMAINS WELL-DEFINED AS EVIDENT ON A 161058Z
ASCAT PASS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A
STEADY DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY AND LOOPING
INTO THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ASCAT PASS
AND ON A 161631Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES
AND IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 161058Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING 35-KNOT WIND
BARBS AROUND THE THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A TROUGH TO
THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND RIDGING EXTENDING FROM NEW CALEDONIA INTO
THE CORAL SEA ARE CREATING A MODERATE TO HIGH (20 TO 30 KNOT)VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) ENVIRONMENT. TC 20P IS NOW TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE
STEADY HIGH VWS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL CAUSE THE EVENTUAL
DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM BY TAU 36. BASED ON THE WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT, AS THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE SHIFTS, AND MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWING A WIDE VARIATION IN TRACK SOLUTIONS, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
161800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z AND 172100Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20130317 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TIM) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TIM) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 19.1S 152.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 152.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 19.8S 152.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 20.0S 151.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 20.0S 150.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 19.9S 149.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 152.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (TIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM
SOUTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BEEN STEADILY SHEARING TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE LLCC HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN ITS OVERALL ORGANIZATION.
BASED ON THE WIND SPEEDS REMAINING AROUND 35 KNOTS IN THE AVAILABLE
SCATTEROMETRY DATA OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, THIS FORECAST HAS BEEN
EXTENDED TO 48 HOURS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
SLOWER THAN EXPECTED DISSIPATION OF THE LLCC. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR PERSISTING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY,
BUT HAS BEEN SLOWLY DIMINISHING ALONG THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN
PERIPHERIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF
THE SYSTEM AND RIDGING EXTENDING FROM NEW CALEDONIA INTO THE CORAL
SEA ARE CREATING A MODERATE TO HIGH (20 TO 30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) ENVIRONMENT. TC 20P REMAINS IN A WEAKER THAN EXPECTED
STEERING ENVIRONMENT, TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH AND SLOWING. MODEL
GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
BECOMING THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
BUT DUE TO THE VARIATION IN THE TIMING, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST TRACK. INCREASING VWS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AND
THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR WILL LEAD TO THE DISSIPATION OF THE
SYSTEM BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z AND 180900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20130317 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TIM) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TIM) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 19.4S 152.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S 152.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 19.8S 151.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 19.5S 152.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (TIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM
SOUTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE (IR)
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME BROAD AND
UNRAVELED AS WEAK REMNANT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE DISPLACED BY
STRONG NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH POOR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE IR ANIMATION AND FROM A 171621Z
AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE
OBJECTIVE DVORAK FIX FROM CIMS AS ALL SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES HAVE
CLASSIFIED THE SYSTEM AS TOO WEAK. SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
OVER THE SYSTEM. SINCE TC 20P IS NOW CATEGORIZED AS DISSIPATED, THIS
IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 11 FEET.
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_tim.htm | Updated: 19 March 2013 |