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Tropical Cyclone AMARA
Southern Hemisphere Summary
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Tropical Cyclone AMARA Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTXS21 PGTW 20131215 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.6S 77.4E TO 16.4S 72.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 151200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.3S 76.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.2S
81.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 76.5E, APPROXIMATELY 475 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC) WITH FLARING
CENTRALIZED DEEP CONVECTION. SSMIS PASSES FROM 151159Z AND 151302Z
INDICATE THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS SHEARED OFF TO THE WEST OF THE
SUSPECTED LLCC. POSITIONING HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE AS MULTIPLE MESO-VORTICES HAVE POPPED OUT ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY AND UNRAVELED. CURRENT POSITION PHILOSOPHY IS TO STAY WITH
THE CENTER OF MASS WITHIN THE BROADER CIRCULATION. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE BEGUN AT 151200Z AND ARE CALLING FOR A 25 KNOT
DISTURBANCE BUT THE MOST RECENT SCAT PASS (OSCAT FROM 150636Z)
INDICATES A 30 KNOT LLCC WHICH HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS
APPROXIMATELY THREE DEGREES EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE TO HIGH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
LLCC BUT HAS BEEN DECREASING DIRECTLY OVER THE LLCC TO LOW TO
MODERATE LEVELS DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, OUTFLOW HAS
BEGUN TO PICK UP IN THE POLEWARD DIRECTION WITH A CONNECTION INTO
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT RANGING FROM 26 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS BUT OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT IS MARGINAL. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS AGGRESSIVE IN
DEVELOPING THE DISTURBANCE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO INCREASED SYMMETRY OF THE LLCC AND
IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
161500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS21 PGTW 20131216 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151451Z DEC 13//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.2S 73.5E TO 16.4S 68.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 161200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.7S 73.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.3S
76.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.7S 73.1E, APPROXIMATELY 500 NM SOUTH
OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS CONSOLIDATING CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER A WELL DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED SPIRAL BANDING.
THE SSMI 85 GHZ PASS FROM 161026Z REVEALS THAT THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION IS CONTAINED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT BUT ALSO
INDICATES THE IMPROVED CURVED STRUCTURE NEAR THE LLCC. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE SLOWLY INCREASED AND RANGE FROM 30 TO 35
KNOTS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KNOTS AS TWO OUT OF THREE
REPORTING STATIONS INDICATE THIS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
DISTURBANCE IS APPROXIMATELY FOUR DEGREES EQUATORWARD OF AN EAST-
WEST ORIENTATED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
CONTINUES TO DECREASE OVER THE LLCC AND IS CURRENTLY AT LOW TO
MODERATE LEVELS (10-15 KNOTS). OUTFLOW IS CONCENTRATED IN THE
WESTWARD AND POLEWARD DIRECTIONS WITH A CONNECTION INTO THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT RANGING FROM 26 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS BUT OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT IS MARGINAL. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS AGGRESSIVE IN
DEVELOPING THE DISTURBANCE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVING
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
171500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20131216 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/161451Z DEC 13//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 15.8S 72.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 72.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 15.8S 71.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 15.8S 70.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 15.8S 69.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 15.8S 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 16.1S 65.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 16.9S 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 17.7S 60.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 71.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 523 NM SOUTH OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CENTRAL CONVECTION
AND OUTER BANDING SPIRALING INTO THE CENTER. A 1705Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE ADDITIONALLY SHOWS INCREASING STRUCTURE AS THE LLCC
HAS BECOME MORE DEFINED AND TIGHTER WRAPPED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
BASED ON THIS INCREASED STRUCTURE AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO WARNING STATUS (35 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS GOOD POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS BEING SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY LOW TO MODERATE (10-
20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORABLE AT 26 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS BUT OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS
MARGINAL. TC 03S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING GENERALLY WEST TO WEST-
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) LOCATED OVER MADAGASCAR. THIS STR IS FORECASTED TO SHIFT
FURTHER WEST AND MOVE OVER AFRICA, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIVE
THE SYSTEM GENERALLY TO THE WEST WHILE ANOTHER MODIFYING STR WILL BE
BUILDING TO THE EAST OF SYSTEM WHICH WILL ADD A SLIGHT SOUTHWEST
COMPONENT TO THE SYSTEM AFTER TAU 48. GENERAL INTENSIFICATION IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR, REACHING A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS IN THE EXTENDED TAUS,
AS GOOD UPPER LEVELS AND MARGINAL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT CAN SUPPORT.
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY SPREAD BUT GENERALLY
AGREES WITH THE FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE
SLIGHT SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE COMPLEX STEERING
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z AND 172100Z.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI 161451Z DEC 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20131217 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 15.6S 72.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 72.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 15.7S 71.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 15.6S 69.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 15.6S 68.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 15.7S 67.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 16.2S 64.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 16.6S 62.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 17.2S 61.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 72.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AMARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOT OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING
CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM HAS STRUGGLED DURING THE PAST
TWELVE HOURS AS A BURST OF CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC SEEMS TO
HAVE CAUSED TEMPORARY UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER, THE BANDING
STRUCTURE REMAINS TIGHTLY CURVED, AS EVIDENT IN THE 170413Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE. A 170415Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE 35-KNOT WINDS
CONCENTRATED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE AND ASCAT IMAGERY WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES AND THE TIMELY
ASCAT PASS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC AMARA IS NOW LOCATED
UNDERNEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WHICH IS PROVIDING FOR LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE MAIN OUTFLOW CHANNEL REMAINS IN THE
POLEWARD DIRECTION WITH A SLIGHT CONNECTION INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. TC 03S HAS BEEN MOVING VERY SLOWLY OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS AS IT IS LOCATED IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, BETWEEN TWO
SUBTROPICAL RIDGES. THE SYSTEM WILL STAY IN THE WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT WILL REMAIN ON A TRACK SLOWLY
WESTWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. BY TAU 96 A DEEP MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE AND ERODE THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. DURING THIS TIME TC 03S
WILL BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AND DIP SOUTHWEST. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION
IS EXPECTED UNDER THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AS WELL AS
SUPPORTIVE 26 TO 27 DEGREE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). AS TC
AMARA APPROACHES THE WATERS OFF LA REUNION, THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF
WARMER SSTS (28 DEGREES CELSIUS), WARMER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, AND
INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW, SHOULD CAUSE INTENSIFICATION TO 70
KNOTS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH ONLY A 110 NM SPREAD
AT TAU 120 BUT THERE IS MORE DISAGREEMENT IN THE ALONG TRACK SPEEDS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND
ECMWF SOLUTION. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS DUE TO
THE SLIGHT SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE COMPLEX STEERING
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z AND 180900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20131217 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 16.1S 71.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 71.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 16.2S 70.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 16.3S 68.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 16.4S 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 16.6S 65.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 17.2S 62.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 17.6S 61.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 18.3S 61.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 71.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 544 NM SOUTH OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
IMPROVING STRUCTURE AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS
BECOME TIGHTER WRAPPED AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS FURTHER IMPROVED. A
171644Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED SYSTEM AS DEEP
CONVECTION HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY WRAPPED AROUND A MICROWAVE EYE. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED UPON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE
OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT RANGE FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS NOW LOCATED UNDERNEATH THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WHICH IS PROVIDING LOW (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALTHOUGH THE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS DIMINISHED. TC 03S CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY AS
IT IS LOCATED IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, BETWEEN TWO
SUBTROPICAL RIDGES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY
ACCELERATE TO THE WEST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND REMAIN ON A THIS
SLOW WESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. BY TAU 96 A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL
PASS SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE AND ERODE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. DURING THIS TIME TC 03S WILL BEGIN TO
SLOW DOWN AND DIP SOUTHWEST. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED
UNDER THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AS WELL AS SUPPORTIVE 26
TO 27 DEGREE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). AS TC AMARA APPROACHES
THE WATERS NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF WARMER
SSTS (28 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW, SHOULD
CAUSE INTENSIFICATION TO 75 KNOTS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH ONLY A 100 NM SPREAD AT TAU 120 BUT THERE REMAINS
SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE ALONG TRACK SPEEDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST TRACK REMAINS DUE TO THE SLIGHT SPREAD IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE AND THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 180900Z AND 182100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S
(FOUR) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20131218 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 16.0S 70.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 70.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 16.0S 69.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 16.3S 68.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 16.6S 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 16.9S 65.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 17.6S 63.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 18.4S 63.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 19.2S 62.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 70.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AMARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 543 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ENHANCED WATER VAPOR ANIMATION AND ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT RAPIDLY IMPROVED STRUCTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH A 10-NM IRREGULAR EYE. A 180428Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO
REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING AND A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT RANGE FROM 77 TO 90 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ROBUST RADIAL
OUTFLOW, WHICH SUPPORTS THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS (40 KNOT INCREASE). TC 03S CONTINUES TO MOVE
SLOWLY AS IT REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, BETWEEN TWO
SUBTROPICAL RIDGES. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY
OF 105 KNOTS BY TAU 36 TO 48. AFTER TAU 60, TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO
ENCOUNTER INCREASING VWS, WHICH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE STRUCTURE
OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 72, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A LOW-LEVEL
HIGH BUILDING SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH SHOULD ACT TO SLOW FORWARD
MOTION AND PROVIDE AN INFLUX OF COOLER, DRIER AIR. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS DUE, PRIMARILY, TO THE WIDE SPREAD IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT IN THE
EXTENDED TAUS. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 182100Z AND 190900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S
(BRUCE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20131218 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 16.8S 69.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 69.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 17.2S 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 17.8S 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 18.3S 65.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 18.9S 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 20.3S 64.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 21.0S 64.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 21.9S 65.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 69.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 850 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SYSTEM WITH A 12-NM RAGGED EYE FEATURE AND SEVERAL WELL
DEFINED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS SPIRALING OUT FROM THE SYSTEM CENTER.
TC 03S HAS UNDERGONE RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI), INCREASING BY 50
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
WELL ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW CHANNELS EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD. AN
181709Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING AS
WELL AS THE ESTABLISHED EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON THE IR LOOP AND AMSU-B IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT
RANGE FROM 90 TO 102 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ROBUST DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. TC 03S IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWEST AS IT REMAINS IN A
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, BETWEEN TWO DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGES. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 130
KNOTS BY TAU 24. SOON AFTER, A LOW-LEVEL HIGH, BUILDING SOUTHWEST OF
THE SYSTEM, SHOULD ACT TO SLOW FORWARD MOTION AND PROVIDE AN INFLUX
OF COOLER, DRIER AIR; GRADUALLY WEAKENING THE STRUCTURE OF TC 03S.
NEAR TAU 48, THE DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST
SHOULD ASSUME THE DOMINANT STEERING CONTROL OF TC 03S AND BEGIN A
SLOW RECURVE SCENARIO TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE WEAKENING TREND DUE INCREASING VWS AS IT APPROACHES THE
RIDGE AXIS NEAR TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SMALL VARIATIONS IN TRACK SPEED DUE TO THE WEAK
STEERING MECHANISM AND TIMING OF THE RECURVE SCENARIO. THUS, THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. DUE
TO THE POTENTIALLY ERRATIC BEHAVIOR ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AND THE CURRENT RI SCENARIO, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
181800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z AND 192100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20131219 09:00z AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 006A AMENDED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 006A AMENDED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 17.2S 68.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 68.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 17.9S 66.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 18.5S 65.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 19.1S 64.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 19.9S 64.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 20.8S 64.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 21.1S 64.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 21.3S 64.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 67.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AMARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 740 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL, COMPACT SYSTEM THAT HAS EXPERIENCED WARMING
CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DURING THE
LAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION WAS BASED ON THE FIX CLUSTER OF
ALL REPORTING AGENCIES WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE; HOWEVER, THE 190442Z
TRMM 37 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS THE LLCC IS LOCATED NEAR 17.2S 68.3E AND
THE BEST TRACK POSITION WILL HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE LOW END OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 102 TO 115 KNOTS DUE TO THE WARMING CLOUD TOPS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDERNEATH A POINT SOURCE OF
DIFFLUENCE WHICH IS PROVIDING LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
THE MAIN OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS IN THE POLEWARD DIRECTION INTO
TRANSITORY TROUGHING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE ONCE ROBUST EQUATORWARD
CHANNEL HAS NOW WEAKENED AND PROBABLY THE CAUSE OF THE RECENT
WEAKENING TREND. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, BETWEEN
TWO DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGES. ANOTHER TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PASS SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE BY TAU 48. THIS WILL
FURTHER WEAKEN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TC 03S WILL BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN. BY TAU
96 THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AND A LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL ACT TO STALL THE SYSTEM AND MOST LIKELY CAUSE IT TO
RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST; HOWEVER, THAT IS BEYOND THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. TC 03S WILL CONTINUE ON A SLOW WEAKENING TREND AS UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN THE SAME FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BY
DAY THREE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THEN, WHEN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST BUILDS IN THERE SHOULD BE A
FURTHER INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS WIDELY SPREAD BUT MOST INDICATE A STALL
FOLLOWED BY A RETROGRADE TO THE WEST. THE TIMING OF THIS HAS
EXTREMELY HIGH UNCERTAINTY. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS TO KEEP THE
FOUR AND FIVE DAY POSITIONS VERY SLOW UNTIL THE MODELS CAN CONVERGE
ON A MORE COHERENT SOLUTION. THEREFORE, THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS CHANGED IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY AS
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. THERE REMAINS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST DUE TO ALL THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
FACTORS. JUSTIFICATION FOR AMENDMENT: SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED WIND
RADII AND SLIGHTLY CHANGED CURRENT POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z AND
200900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20131219 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 18.0S 66.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 66.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 18.4S 65.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 19.1S 64.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 19.9S 63.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 20.6S 64.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 21.1S 64.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 21.3S 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 21.5S 65.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 66.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 657 NM
EAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 200900Z AND 202100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20131220 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 18.3S 65.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 65.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 18.9S 64.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 19.6S 64.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 20.3S 64.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 20.7S 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 21.1S 65.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 21.3S 65.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 21.6S 65.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 65.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AMARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 565 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL, COMPACT SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY
CURVED BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER AND SPIRALING OUT
FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 200304Z SSMIS 91 GHZ
IMAGE DEPICTS VERY INTENSE AND DEEP CONVECTION NEARLY ENCOMPASSING
THE ENTIRE LLCC WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER CLOUD TOPS OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE EYEWALL. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
APPARENT 30NM SYMMETRIC EYE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
102-115 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
UNDERNEATH A SELF-INDUCED POINT SOURCE OF DIVERGENCE WHICH IS
PROVIDING FOR LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE MAIN
OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS IN THE POLEWARD DIRECTION INTO A TRANSITORY
TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A MODERATE EQUATORWARD CHANNEL AS WELL.
TC 03S IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN THE
STR. ANOTHER FAST MOVING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, NOW LOCATED SOUTHWEST
OF THE SYSTEM, WILL FURTHER BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STR. AFTER TAU 96, ANOTHER ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE BASIN, TC
04S (BRUCE), WILL HAVE REACHED CPA FROM TC 03S (AMARA) AND WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK AWAY. MODEL FIELDS DEPICT AN EXTENSION OF THE LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE BUILDING IN NORTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM. AT THE SAME TIME A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STR WILL BUILD IN
SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. MOST MODEL FIELDS SHOW THESE TWO RIDGES
COMBINING TO FORM A CONTINUOUS STR LOBE THAT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CYCLONE. ALL OF THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY
GUIDANCE WEAKENS THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND ONLY
THE PURELY DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INTENSIFIES IT. EVEN THOUGH A
TEMPORARY INTENSIFICATION MAY OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGHS AND THEIR ACCENTUATION OF THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, THE FORECAST CALLS FOR AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND.
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE TROUGHS AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT WITH THE ESTABLISHMENT OF THE LOW-TO MID-LEVEL STR
SHOULD PROVE ENOUGH TO BRING THIS SYSTEM TO EVENTUAL DISSIPATION.
TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS WIDELY SPREAD DUE TO EACH MODEL'S VARIOUS
TIMING OF ALL THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SYNOPTIC EVOLUTIONS.
THEREFORE, LOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE WEAKENED LLCC MAY RETROGRADE TO THE WEST
DURING THE FOUR TO FIVE DAY MARK BUT IT SHOULD BE DISSIPATING BY
THIS TIME ANYWAYS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 32
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z AND 210900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20131220 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 19.1S 64.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 64.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 19.8S 64.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 20.4S 64.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 20.7S 64.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 20.9S 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 21.1S 65.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 21.2S 65.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 21.3S 66.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 64.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INTENSE SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM INTO A DEFINED 25 NM EYE. A 201538Z SSMIS
91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED SYSTEM WITH A
SYMMETRIC EYEWALL THAT HAS SLIGHTLY THINNED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
READILY APPARENT EYE IN THE IR LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 115 KNOTS BASED ON CONGRUENT
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDERNEATH A SELF-INDUCED POINT SOURCE OF
DIVERGENCE WHICH IS PROVIDING LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A TRANSITORY TROUGH
TO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE A MODERATE EQUATORWARD CHANNEL HAS PERSISTED
AS WELL. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT
BEGINS TO ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM WILL BREAK DOWN THIS STR WHILE
ANOTHER FAST MOVING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, NOW LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF
THE SYSTEM, WILL FURTHER BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR
WHICH WILL FORCE TC 03S INTO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT IN THE EXTENDED TAUS.
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE TROUGHS, COOLING OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT, ALONG WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WITH THE ESTABLISHMENT
OF A LOW-TO MID-LEVEL STR TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM AND LEAD TO AN EVENTUAL DISSIPATION PAST TAU 120. TRACK
GUIDANCE REMAINS WIDELY SPREAD DUE TO THE OVERALL WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AS MODELS TAKE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS IN THE EXTENDED TAUS.
THEREFORE, LOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z AND 212100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20131221 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 20.1S 64.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S 64.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 21.0S 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 21.6S 65.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 22.0S 66.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 22.2S 66.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 22.3S 67.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 22.4S 67.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 22.4S 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 64.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AMARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 389 NM EAST
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A 29-NM EYE SURROUNDED BY AN ASYMMETRIC
EYEWALL. A 210518Z METOP-A 89 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED, SHALLOW BANDING EVIDENT
OUTSIDE THE EYEWALL. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION BASED ON THE EYE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 130
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 127 TO 140 KNOTS.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE EXCELLENT
OUTFLOW; HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. TC 03S IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS FORECAST TO RE-CURVE EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, TC 03S IS EXPECTED
TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 36, AS IT WEAKENS DUE TO INCREASING
VWS AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, DUE TO A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
HIGH BUILDING TO THE SOUTH. TC AMARA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU
120 WITH THE REMNANTS BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY OR TRACKING
WESTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO; HOWEVER,
THE MODEL TRACKERS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EXACT TRACK AND
TIMING OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY PHASE. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 35 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z AND 220900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S
(BRUCE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20131221 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 21.2S 65.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2S 65.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 21.9S 66.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 22.2S 67.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 22.4S 67.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 22.6S 67.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 22.8S 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 22.8S 68.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 21.4S 65.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 471 NM
EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS TC 03S HAS STARTED TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN AS THE
DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE DEFINED 20 NM EYE HAS BECOME
ASYMMETRIC AND SLIGHTLY SHALLOWED. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE READILY APPARENT EYE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 120 KNOTS BASED ON FALLING DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT NOW RANGE FROM 102 TO 127 KNOTS AND THE
WEAKENING STRUCTURE SEEN IN THE EIR. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS ALONG WITH
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS STARTING
TO DIMINISH DESPITE EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, TC 03S
HAS STARTED TO EXPERIENCE STRONG LEVELS (20 TO 30 KNOTS) OF VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. TC
03S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG A LOBE OF A DEEP
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THAT IS LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE SYSTEM. THIS CURRENT STEERING INFLUENCE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
AREA AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHICH
WILL CREATE A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL CAUSE TC 03S TO
SLOW TO THE POINT OF BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY ALTHOUGH A SLOW DRIFT
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED. GENERAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS FURTHER INCREASING VWS
AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAMPER THE SYSTEM. TC AMARA WILL
DISSIPATE BY TAU 96 DUE TO THESE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS AS THE REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK BACK TO THE WEST
ALONG WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
FOREAST; HOWEVER, THE MODEL TRACKERS CONTINUE DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT.
THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH
IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
211800Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z AND 222100Z.REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20131222 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 22.1S 66.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S 66.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 22.5S 67.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 22.8S 67.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 22.9S 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 22.9S 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 22.8S 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 22.2S 66.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AMARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 545 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AS THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED. HOWEVER, A
220457Z METOP-A MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS BROKEN DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE AND PGTW SATELLITE FIX
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 90 TO 102 KNOTS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG (30+ KNOTS) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL MIDLATITUDE TROUGH,
IS CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO DECAY RAPIDLY. TC 03S CONTINUES TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO
THE NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 24, A STRONG LOW-LEVEL HIGH WILL BUILD IN
TO THE SOUTH AND WILL ACT TO SLOW TC 03S LEADING TO QUASI-STATIONARY
MOVEMENT. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF INCREASING VWS AND COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL CONTINUE TO HAMPER THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS TC 03S BECOMES EXPOSED TO INCREASING VWS, IT
WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND THEN DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TC OVER
WATER BY TAU 72. THE REMNANTS OF TC 03S ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK
WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL HIGH. THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LARGE VARIATION IN THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING
OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS
28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z AND 230900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20131222 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 22.8S 68.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S 68.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 22.9S 68.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 22.8S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 22.6S 69.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 22.8S 68.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 619 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY DECAYING SYSTEM AS THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS STARTED TO DEVOLVE AND THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION WITH THE SYSTEM HAS SHEARED AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST BY OVER
50 NM. A 221513Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE LLCC HAS STARTED
TO ELONGATE AND THE CONVECTION HAS CONSIDERABLY SHALLOWED. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR LOOP AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE ELONGATED NATURE OF
THE LLCC AND SOME AMBIGUITY IN THE IR ANIMATION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 60 KTS IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT RANGE FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A POOR ENVIRONMENT AS STRONG (30+ KNOTS)
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS OFFSETTING ANY POSITIVE
EFFECTS OF SOME EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 03S CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP
LAYERED RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL HIGH WILL BUILD IN TO THE SOUTH AND WILL ACT TO SLOW TC
03S, LEADING TO QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF
INCREASING VWS AND COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
RAPIDLY DECAY THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, DISSIPATING
TC AMARA BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER
DISSIPATION, THERE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF TC 03S WILL TRACK BACK TO THE WEST UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL HIGH, ALTHOUGH, AT A VERY WEAKENED STATE.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE VARIATION IN THE EXACT
TRACK AND TIMING OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT. THEREFORE, THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z AND
232100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20131223 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 22.9S 68.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.9S 68.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 22.9S 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 22.7S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 22.9S 68.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AMARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 631 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.
HOWEVER, A 230437Z METOP-A IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY-WRAPPED SHALLOW
BANDING WITH DRY AIR SURROUNDING THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON THE MSI WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40
KTS IS BASED ON RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA AND THE LOW-LEVEL
STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POOR ENVIRONMENT WITH
STRONG (30 TO 40 KNOTS) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC
03S HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL HIGH HAS BUILT IN
TO THE SOUTH. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF INCREASING VWS AND COLD SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DECAY THE SYSTEM
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, DISSIPATING TC AMARA BELOW THE
WARNING THRESHOLD BY TAU 24. THE REMNANTS OF TC 03S ARE FORECAST TO
TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL HIGH.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE FORECAST TRACK WITH MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE WESTWARD TURN.
THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK,
WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
232100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20131223 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 22.8S 68.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S 68.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 22.6S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 22.8S 68.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AMARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 657 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED, RAPIDLY WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. A
230640Z OSCAT IMAGE SHOWS ONLY 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND 30 TO 35 KNOT GRADIENT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. THE SYSTEM IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED OSCAT IMAGE. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF INCREASING VWS,
COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL DISSIPATE
TC AMARA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE REMNANTS OF TC 03S ARE
FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-
LEVEL HIGH. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z
IS 12 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_amara.htm | Updated: 31 December 2013 |