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Tropical Cyclone COLIN
Southern Hemisphere Summary
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Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone COLIN Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTXS21 PGTW 20140108 22:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.6S 94.2E TO 12.2S 85.0E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 082130Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 93.3E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.2S
94.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 93.3E, APPROXIMATELY 245 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE OF A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 081731Z TRMM 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A DEFINED LLCC
WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 081455Z
ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT
WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE UNDER LOW
TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH STRONG DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE AT GREATER THAN
28 DEGREES CELSIUS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
092200Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20140109 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (EIGHT) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (EIGHT) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 11.9S 86.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S 86.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 13.0S 83.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 13.8S 81.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 14.5S 80.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 15.6S 78.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 17.3S 76.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 21.3S 72.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 26.6S 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 12.2S 85.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 866 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTION WITH SPIRAL BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
091614Z METOP-A 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A
091615Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 35 TO 40
KNOT WINDS IN THE CORE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY
ASSESSMENT. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
MICROWAVE IMAGE AND A TIGHT GROUPING OF AGENCY POSITION FIXES WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHICH
IS BEING OFFSET BY THE SYSTEM'S EASTERLY MOTION AND INCREASING
OUTFLOW. TC 08S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. BY
TAU 24, THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE STR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN,
ALLOWING TC 08S TO TURN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL MOVE IN TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM NEAR TAU 36, WHICH WILL ENHANCE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALLOWING FOR
RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL FURTHER SUPPORT A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU 96. THE STR WILL REORIENT IN THE
LATER TAUS AS THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD, CAUSING TC 08S
TO TRACK SOUTHWARD. DUE TO THE GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL TRACKERS,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS AND FAVORS GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 100900Z AND 102100Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 082151Z JAN 14 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 082200).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20140110 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 12.5S 83.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 83.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 13.3S 81.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 14.1S 79.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 15.2S 77.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 16.5S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 19.2S 73.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 22.3S 71.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 27.4S 69.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 83.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 737 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
SHOWS CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO PERSIST OVER A WELL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A DEEP BAND OF
CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LLCC, BUT HAS BEEN SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHICH IS BEING OFFSET BY THE
SYSTEM'S EASTERLY MOTION AND INCREASING OUTFLOW. TC 08S IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. BY TAU 24, THE WESTERN
EXTENSION OF THE STR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN, ALLOWING TC 08S TO TURN
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH WILL MOVE IN TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM NEAR TAU 36, WHICH
WILL ENHANCE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALLOWING FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE
COMBINED EFFECTS OF FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL FURTHER SUPPORT A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75
KNOTS BY TAU 72. THE STR WILL REORIENT IN THE LATER TAUS AS THE MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD, CAUSING TC 08S TO TRACK SOUTHWARD.
DUE TO THE GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL TRACKERS, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS AND FAVORS GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z AND
110900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20140110 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 14.0S 82.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 82.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 15.2S 80.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 15.9S 78.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 17.0S 77.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 18.7S 76.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 21.9S 73.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 25.9S 72.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 31.2S 76.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 81.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 696 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS STEADILY IMPROVING CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER A WELL-
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 101652Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SEVERAL FEEDER BANDS SPIRALING OUT FROM THE
SYSTEM CENTER AS WELL AS A LARGE BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION LOOSELY
WRAPPED ALONG THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM
THE SSMIS IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW, KNES, FMEE, AND FIMP. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHICH IS OFFSET BY IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW.
TC 08S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. BY TAU 24,
THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE STR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN, ALLOWING TC
08S TO TURN SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHWESTWARD. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 48 DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM NEAR TAU 72, WEAKENING THE STR
AND ALLOWING FOR TC 08S TO RECURVE BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. DUE TO THE
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL TRACKERS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS AND FAVORS THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z AND
112100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20140111 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 16.3S 80.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 80.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 17.4S 79.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 18.5S 77.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 19.9S 76.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 21.6S 74.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 25.1S 73.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 29.0S 74.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 33.4S 78.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 80.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (COLIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 721 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL AND HAS DEVELOPED A PINHOLE
10-NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FIX WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF
65 KNOTS FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHICH IS OFFSET BY IMPROVING RADIAL OUTFLOW.
TC 08S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. IT IS
EXPECTED TO CREST THE RIDGE AROUND TAU 72 BEFORE RECURVING
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 120. GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 48 DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. A TRANSITORY
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM NEAR TAU
72, WEAKENING THE STR AND ALLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED RECURVATURE.
DUE TO THE GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL TRACKERS, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH SLIGHT BIAS TOWARDS THE ECMWF
SOLUTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 112100Z AND 120900Z. //
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20140111 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 17.1S 79.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 79.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 18.3S 77.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 19.9S 75.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 21.5S 74.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 23.6S 73.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 27.0S 72.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 30.7S 78.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 34.6S 88.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 78.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 717 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL TIGHTLY WRAPPED
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS SPIRALING OUT FROM A 12-NM PINHOLE EYE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FIX WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
115 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND FMEE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHICH IS OFFSET BY STRONG DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW
EVIDENT IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TC 08S IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO CREST
THE RIDGE AROUND TAU 48 BEFORE RECURVING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 120. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, BUT COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
THEREAFTER ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. A TRANSITORY
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM NEAR TAU
48, WEAKENING THE STR AND ALLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED RECURVATURE.
DUE TO THE GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL TRACKERS, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH SLIGHT BIAS TOWARDS THE ECMWF
SOLUTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z AND 122100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20140112 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 18.2S 78.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 78.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 19.8S 76.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 21.6S 75.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 23.3S 73.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 25.3S 73.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 28.8S 75.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 34.0S 85.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 18.6S 77.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (COLIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 745 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED SYMMETRY AND A
WELL-DEFINED EYE AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK AROUND A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE MSI LOOP ALSO SHOWS
GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH A VERY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE
15-NM EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE 120600Z
DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO CREST THE RIDGE
AROUND TAU 48 BEFORE RECURVING SOUTHEASTWARD AND TRANSITIONING INTO
AN EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS
CURRENT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND GOOD OUTFLOW PERSIST. AFTERWARDS, COOLING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VWS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM. A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM BEFORE TAU 48, WEAKENING THE STR AND ALLOWING THE
AFOREMENTIONED RECURVATURE. DUE TO THE GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL
TRACKERS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH
IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH A SLIGHT BIAS
TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION RESULTING IN A TIGHTER RECURVATURE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 122100Z AND 130900Z. //
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20140112 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 20.1S 76.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S 76.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 22.2S 75.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 24.2S 74.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 25.8S 73.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 27.8S 74.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 33.6S 83.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 76.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 819 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 130900Z AND 132100Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20140113 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 22.5S 75.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.5S 75.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 24.7S 74.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 26.4S 74.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 28.2S 74.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 30.9S 76.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 36.9S 88.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 23.1S 75.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (COLIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 938 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE DUE TO COOLING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND ON
CLOSELY-GROUPED AGENCY FIXES WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 08S CONTINUES TO TRACK AROUND A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO
CREST THE STR AROUND TAU 24 BEFORE RECURVING SOUTHEASTWARD AND
TRANSITIONING INTO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND DUE TO THE COOLING SSTS AND
INCREASING VWS. A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM BEFORE TAU 24, WEAKENING THE STR AND ALLOWING THE
AFOREMENTIONED RECURVATURE. THERE IS TIGHT AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL
TRACKERS, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
132100Z AND 140900Z. //
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20140113 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 24.9S 73.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.9S 73.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 26.6S 73.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 28.3S 73.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 30.8S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 33.3S 80.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 25.3S 73.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (COLIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1065 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DIMINISHED CONVECTIVE BANDING AS TC 08S CONTINUES ITS
WEAKENING TREND. A 131629Z METOP-A 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
AN EXPOSED LLCC WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TC 08S CONTINUES TO TRACK AROUND A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. BY TAU 24, A TRANSITORY MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, ALLOWING TC
08S TO RECURVE AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH
THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF DECREASING
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
FURTHER DETERIORATE THE SYSTEM AS IT UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT). TC 08S IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48. DUE
TO THE TIGHT AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL TRACKERS, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z AND 142100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20140114 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 26.7S 73.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.7S 73.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 28.7S 73.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 31.2S 75.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 27.2S 73.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1171 NM SOUTH OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A NEARLY COMPLETE
LOSS OF DEEP CONVECTION. MSI SHOWS THE OVERALL LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE
BECOMING LESS TIGHTLY WRAPPED IN THE PAST TWELVE HOURS AS THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSES OVER UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) (24
DEGREES CELSIUS). CURRENT MICROWAVE CROSS SECTIONS FOR TC 08S
INDICATE THE SYSTEM REMAINS A WARM CORE CIRCULATION, BUT MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES A SHIFT TO A SUBTROPICAL COLD CORE CIRCULATION IN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER DIMINISHING SSTS.
THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TRACKING EASTWARD, TO THE SOUTH OF TC 08S,
HAS CAUSED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO SHIFT, BRINGING THE TRACK
MORE SOUTHWARD IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES
EASTWARD, THE STR WILL FURTHER ADJUST CAUSING THE TRACK TO SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST. ADDITIONALLY, THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL
DETERIORATE AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BE
COMPLETE BY TAU 24. BASED ON THE TIGHT GROUPING OF MODEL GUIDANCE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20140114 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 28.8S 73.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.8S 73.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 31.0S 75.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 33.3S 79.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 35.6S 85.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 29.4S 74.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (COLIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1300 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
DIMINISHING CONVECTION AS TC 08S CONTINUES ITS WEAKENING TREND. A
141702Z METOP-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS AN EXPOSED LLCC WITH
LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON A
RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS, SHOWING 35 TO 40 KNOT WINDS. TC 08S IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING AROUND A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE EAST AND IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS
TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL FURTHER DETERIORATE THE SYSTEM
AS IT UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT), AND WILL POSSIBLY
LEAD TO ITS DISSIPATION BEFORE COMPLETING ETT BY TAU 36. DUE TO THE
TIGHT AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL TRACKERS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
141800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z AND 152100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20140115 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 30.5S 75.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.5S 75.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 33.1S 80.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 35.5S 86.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 31.1S 76.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (COLIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1140 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KERGUELEN ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS SHALLOW CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A WELL
DEFINED AND FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
050417Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED SYSTEM WITH
DIMINISHED CONVECTION AS DRY AIR BEGINS TO WRAP AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI ANIMATION
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE WELL DEFINED NATURE OF THE LLCC. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON A THE TIGHTLY WRAPPED
STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AND PERSISTENCE FROM PREVIOUS SCATTEROMETER
PASSES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A DECREASING ENVIRONMENT AS
POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS WEAKENED WHILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS
CURRENTLY ASSESSED AT MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOTS) LEVELS. TC 08S HAS
ROUNDED THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS AND IS
FORECAST TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE COMBINED EFFECTS
OF DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR FROM THE WESTERLIES, WILL FURTHER DETERIORATE THE SYSTEM AS IT
UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT), AND WILL POSSIBLY
DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD BEFORE COMPLETING ETT
BY TAU 24. DUE TO THE TIGHT AGREEMENT AMONG THE AVAILABLE MODEL
TRACKERS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 152100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20140115 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 31.8S 77.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 31.8S 77.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 34.2S 83.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 32.4S 79.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (COLIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1090 NM
NORTHEAST OF KERGUELEN ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 23 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS THAT TC 08S HAS BEGUN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT
HAS STARTED TO ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE THE OVERALL
STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY ELONGATED. A 151159Z SSMIS
37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM
HAS STARTED TO DEVOLVE AS IT HAS SLIGHTLY ELONGATED AND THE
DIMINISHED CONVECTION HAS BECOME CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE, ALBEIT SHALLOW CONVECTION. TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND COMPLETE ETT IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT
BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MID LATITUDE WESTERLIES, ENCOUNTERING
FURTHER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z
IS 12 FEET.//
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_colin.htm | Updated: 19 January 2014 |