Tropical Cyclones [Index]

Tropical Cyclone DELIWE Southern Hemisphere Summary

WTXS21 PGTW 20140115 20:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.1S 44.3E TO 22.6S 41.0E WITHIN
THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 151900Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.1S 44.4E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
   THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.5S 43.8E IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 17.8S 44.6E, APPROXIMATELY 160 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF
ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED INLAND INTO THE WESTERN POINT OF MADAGASCAR
AND IS NOW LOOPING BACK AND EXPECTED TO EXIT INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A
WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND FORMATIVE BANDS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH A RIDGE
AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT
DUAL OUTFLOW - ONE CHANNEL NORTHWESTWARD AND ANOTHER TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST. ALL AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODELS PREDICT THE VORTEX TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL; HOWEVER, THEY SPREAD OUT
TOWARDS THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE PREDICTIONS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. IN VIEW OF THE HIGHLY
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, IN ADDITION TO WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE CHANNEL (28-30 CELSIUS), THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
162000Z.   //
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20140116 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/161451Z JAN 14//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   161200Z --- NEAR 20.2S 43.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 43.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z --- 21.9S 42.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z --- 23.7S 41.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 24.6S 40.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 24.6S 39.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 23.2S 38.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 20.7S 37.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 18.9S 36.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 43.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH A 161224Z SSMI MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED AND TIGHTLY WRAPPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND IMPROVED
BANDING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THIS WELL MARKED LLCC
SEEN IN THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH (35 KNOTS)
BASED UPON THE TIGHTLY WRAPPED STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AND IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS FROM ALL
REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
UNDERNEATH A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, ONE CHANNEL
NORTHWESTWARD AND ANOTHER TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES. TC 09S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. THIS STR WILL BE THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH THE
NEXT 36 HOURS AS IT DRIVES THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48, ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST, WHICH WILL INITIALLY SLOW THE SYSTEM AS IT SWITCHES STEERING
INFLUENCES. AFTER TAU 48, THIS WESTERN STR WILL DRIVE TC 09S TO THE
NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE. THE SYSTEM WILL STRUGGLE
TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE COAST
OF MADAGASCAR. AFTER WHICH, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ALLOW FOR GENERAL INTENSIFICATION
THROUGH TAU 48 TO A PEAK OF 50 KNOTS. AFTER THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST, INCREASING VWS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
AS IT APPROACHES MOZAMBIQUE. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER, THERE IS
SOME SLIGHT VARIANCES IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS
THE SYSTEM SWITCHES STEERING INFLUENCES. DUE TO THIS, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z AND 171500Z.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI 152000Z JAN 14 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20140117 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (DELIWE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (DELIWE) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   170000Z --- NEAR 22.4S 42.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.4S 42.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z --- 23.9S 41.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 24.7S 40.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 25.0S 39.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 24.5S 38.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 23.3S 37.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 22.5S 37.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 21.6S 36.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 22.8S 42.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (DELIWE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED, ALBEIT
MARGINALLY, AS THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE DEEPENED. THE SAME
ANIMATION ALSO SHOWS A PERSISTENTLY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL;
HOWEVER, THE NORTHWESTWARD CHANNEL HAS ALL BUT EXTINGUISHED. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY AND POSITION ARE BASED ON CLOSELY-GROUPED AND
CONGRUENT DVORAK FIX ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN THE VICINITY OF A RIDGE AXIS IN
AN AREA OF MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER,
THE SAME RIDGE IS PRIMARILY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW THAT IS ENHANCING THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) CENTERED JUST EAST OF MADAGASCAR. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DRIFTING GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS A
COL AREA WHERE IT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY SLOW DOWN AS A NEW STR -
ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AFRICA - WILL COMPETE FOR STEERING. AFTER TAU 48,
THE NEW STR WILL ASSUME STEERING AND SLOWLY NUDGE THE CYCLONE
NORTHWESTWARD. EVEN AS THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SOLID THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, INCREASING VWS -
CONCURRENT WITH THE POLEWARD MOTION OF THE CYCLONE - WILL STIFLE ANY
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. TC DELIWE IS FORECAST TO FLAT-LINE AT 45
KNOTS BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AFTER TAU 48 DUE TO DIMINISHING
OUTFLOW WITH THE ONSET OF THE NEW STEERING STR. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST DUE TO THE STEERING UNCERTAINTY IN THE COL
AREA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 171500Z AND 180300Z.  //
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20140117 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (DELIWE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (DELIWE) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   170600Z --- NEAR 23.5S 42.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.5S 42.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 24.8S 41.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 25.2S 39.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 25.1S 39.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 24.5S 38.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 23.7S 38.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 22.7S 37.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 23.8S 42.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (DELIWE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A COMPACT CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST FEATURE HAS PERSISTED OVER A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE MSI
ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED AT 45 KNOTS BASED UPON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF THE
SAME VALUE FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS IN THE VICINITY OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (20
TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND HAS MAINTAINED GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED JUST
EAST OF MADAGASCAR. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS A COL AREA,
WHERE IT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY SLOW DOWN AS A NEW STR BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST AND COMPETES FOR STEERING INFLUENCE. AFTER TAU 36, THIS NEW
STR WILL ASSUME STEERING AND SLOWLY TRACK THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD.
THE STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PERSISTENT
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT INCREASING VWS AFTER TAU 24 WILL
BEGIN TO OFFSET THE OUTFLOW AND WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THIS INCREASE IN
VWS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY TAU 96, ALTHOUGH THERE IS
A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THE SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE PRIOR TO TAU 96 IF
THE VWS COMPLETELY OFFSETS THE OUTFLOW. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, SOME OF THE MODEL TRACKERS
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN THE VORTEX AND BECOME ERRATIC AFTER TAU 48. DUE
TO THIS, AND THE SHIFTING STEERING INFLUENCES, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
170600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z AND 180900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20140117 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (DELIWE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (DELIWE) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   171800Z --- NEAR 25.4S 40.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 25.4S 40.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 25.7S 39.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 25.3S 38.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 24.6S 38.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 25.5S 40.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (DELIWE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 520 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS WEAKENING CONVECTION, SHEARED OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST, ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 171458Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE ALSO REVEALS THE BULK OF
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. A
RECENT SCATTEROMETER IMAGERY INDICATES A 35 TO 40 KNOT WIND
CIRCULATION, SUPPORTING THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 40
KNOTS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. TC 09S CONTINUES TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED EAST
OF MADAGASCAR. AFTER TAU 12, TC DELIWE IS FORECAST TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD AS ANOTHER STR WILL BUILD IN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL
DOMINATE THE STEERING PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATE THAT TC 09S IS EXPERIENCING HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD, STATIONARY UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WHICH WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM FURTHER WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED NO LATER THAN TAU 36.
OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 180900Z AND 182100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20140118 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (DELIWE) FINAL WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (DELIWE) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   171800Z --- NEAR 25.4S 40.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 25.4S 40.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 25.7S 39.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 25.3S 38.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 24.6S 38.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 25.5S 40.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (DELIWE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 520 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS WEAKENING CONVECTION, SHEARED OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST, ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 171458Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE ALSO REVEALS THE BULK OF
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. A
RECENT SCATTEROMETER IMAGERY INDICATES A 35 TO 40 KNOT WIND
CIRCULATION, SUPPORTING THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 40
KNOTS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. TC 09S CONTINUES TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED EAST
OF MADAGASCAR. AFTER TAU 12, TC DELIWE IS FORECAST TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD AS ANOTHER STR WILL BUILD IN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL
DOMINATE THE STEERING PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATE THAT TC 09S IS EXPERIENCING HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD, STATIONARY UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WHICH WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM FURTHER WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED NO LATER THAN TAU 36.
OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 180900Z AND 182100Z.//