Tropical Cyclones [Index]

Tropical Cyclone EDNA Southern Hemisphere Summary

WTPS22 PGTW 20140203 23:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
260 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.1S 156.6E TO 20.9S 163.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 032230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.6S 157.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.3S
153.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.6S 157.4E, APPROXIMATELY 745 NM
SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 031642Z NOAA-18
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE, BEGINNING TO TIGHTLY WRAP INTO THE LLCC. A RECENT ASCAT PASS
SHOWS A 20 TO 25 KNOT CIRCULATION WITH 30 KNOT WIND BARBS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM
IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW BECOMING
ESTABLISHED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB.
DUE TO IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF DEEP CONVECTION AND UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
042300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20140204 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (EDNA) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/032251Z FEB 14//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (EDNA) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041200Z --- NEAR 17.2S 161.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 161.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 19.7S 163.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 21.6S 163.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 23.0S 163.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 24.0S 162.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 25.4S 161.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 161.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (EDNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 392 NM NORTHWEST
OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED AND DEEPENED AS FORMATIVE BANDS,
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH, HAVE WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE
ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A NOTCH FEATURE ON THE 040935Z 37GHZ
SSMI-S MICROWAVE PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
AVERAGED FROM DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30-40 KNOTS FROM PGTW,
KNES, PHFO, AND ABRF. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 05
DEGREES SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-20
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, THE VWS IS OFFSET BY GOOD
RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A POLEWARD BIAS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE EAST. THE STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AND DRIVE TC 12P
SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 36. AS TC EDNA TRACKS FURTHER POLEWARD,
INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL STIFLE ANY
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION AND EVENTUALLY CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO
DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE WIDELY SPREADS
OUT OVER TIME - A TYPICAL INDICATION OF A WEAK VORTEX - AND LENDS LOW
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z AND 051500Z.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A (WTPS22 PGTW 032300).  //
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20140205 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (EDNA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (EDNA) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   050000Z --- NEAR 20.4S 163.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 163.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 23.0S 164.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 25.0S 165.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 27.2S 166.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 29.6S 167.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 34.0S 173.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 21.1S 163.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (EDNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 182 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT AND SYMMETRIC CENTRAL
CONVECTION OVER A RELATIVELY SMALL LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE INFRARED ANIMATION AND
EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 052048Z SSMIS 37GHZ PASS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
45-55 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, PHFO, AND NFFN. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS APPROXIMATELY FIVE DEGREES SOUTH OF THE
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (20-KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) WITH PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGHING LOCATED ABOUT FIVE DEGREES
TO THE WEST. HOWEVER, THE VWS IS OFFSET BY SPEED DIVERGENCE INTO
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) CENTERED TO THE EAST. TC EDNA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM SHOULD EXPERIENCE SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION
DURING THE NEXT DAY AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN PLACE. AFTER TAU 24 THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AS VWS INCREASES AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP WELL BELOW
26 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC EDNA IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY
TAU 72 WITH THE STRONG POSSIBILITY OF DISSIPATION OCCURRING EARLIER
BY ABOUT TAU 48. AN EARLIER DISSIPATION WILL DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SINCE LAST FORECAST AND ALL CONSENSUS
MEMBERS NOW INDICATE SOME FORM OF A SOUTH- TO SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED AND PLACED SLIGHTLY EAST OF
CONSENSUS TO BE POSITIONED CLOSER TO THE NAVGEM MODEL; WHICH HAS HAD
THE BEST INDIVIDUAL TRACKER PERFORMANCE THUS FAR. BASED ON THE
CONSOLIDATING GUIDANCE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 17 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z AND 060300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20140205 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (EDNA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (EDNA) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   050600Z --- NEAR 22.1S 164.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S 164.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 24.4S 165.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 26.6S 166.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 28.7S 167.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 31.0S 169.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 35.0S 175.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 22.7S 164.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (EDNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 89 NM WEST OF
NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ITS CONVECTIVE DEPTH EVEN AS
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY HAS BEGUN TO FRAY - AN INDICATION OF
INCREASING SHEAR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION ON A RADAR LOOP FROM METEO FRANCE, NEW CALEDONIA, WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AGENCY
DVORAK ESTIMATES TO REFLECT THE SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE DEPTH.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS APPROXIMATELY 07 DEGREES
SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGHING LOCATED ABOUT
FIVE DEGREES TO THE WEST. HOWEVER, THE VWS IS OFFSET BY SPEED
DIVERGENCE INTO GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) CENTERED TO THE EAST. TC EDNA WILL CONTINUE ALONG ITS CURRENT
TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO
SUSTAINED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
AFTER TAU 24, THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS VWS INCREASES AND
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP WELL BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC EDNA
IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 72 WITH THE STRONG
POSSIBILITY OF DISSIPATION OCCURRING EARLIER BY ABOUT TAU 48. NUMERIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT AND LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 19
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z AND 060900Z. //
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20140205 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (EDNA) FINAL WARNING NR 004//
WTPS32 PGTW 052100    
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (EDNA) FINAL WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   051800Z --- NEAR 26.5S 165.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 26.5S 165.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 29.1S 167.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 27.2S 166.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (EDNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 264 NM
SOUTH OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 21
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS WEAKENING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 12P HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY SHEARED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. A 051622Z NOAA-18
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH DRY AIR SURROUNDING
THE CIRCULATION. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF STRONG VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND COLD TEMPERATURE HAVE WEAKENED TC 12P THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE 
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY 
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE 
HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 16 FEET.//