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Tropical Cyclone GUITO
Southern Hemisphere Summary
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[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone GUITO Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTXS21 PGTW 20140217 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
090 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.5S 40.3E TO 19.9S 39.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 171800Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.7S 40.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.4S
40.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.7S 40.4E, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION FLARING OVER A CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A 171706Z SSMIS PASS.
THIS DISTURBANCE LIES NEAR AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT. ALONG-TRACK SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXCEED 28 DEGREES CELSIUS, FAVORING FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. MULTIPLE NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION FROM THIS DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE NEXT ONE TO TWO DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. BASED ON
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND MULTIPLE MODEL DEVELOPMENT,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
182100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20140218 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/172121ZFEB14//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 18.3S 40.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 40.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 19.9S 40.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 21.6S 39.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 23.6S 39.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 25.9S 39.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 30.2S 41.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 33.6S 44.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 36.8S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 40.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM
WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED AS FORMATIVE BANDS HAVE
WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVEN IF
THE CONVECTIVE CELLS ARE STILL FRAGMENTED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN 180903Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS
SHOWING 35 TO 40 KNOT WIND BARBS ALONG THE WESTERN ARC OF A SYMMETRIC
LLCC. THIS IS HIGHER THAN AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES THAT ARE
CONSTRAINED BY THE FRAGMENTED CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
ANIMATION SHOWS A GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A POLEWARD BIAS THAT IS
ENHANCING THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST. AFTER TAU 48, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND CAUSE TC 15S TO RECURVE
SOUTHEASTWARD. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY MAINLY DUE TO THE
STRONG OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, INTENSIFICATION WILL BE MINIMAL DUE TO
INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS THE CYCLONE
DRIFTS POLEWARD. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN UNUSUALLY CLOSE
AGREEMENT FOR A CYCLONE IN A DEVELOPING STAGE, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. GFDN IS THE LONE OUTLIER,
UNREALISTICALLY TRACKING THE VORTEX WESTWARD AFTER TAU 48. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
190300Z AND 191500Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20140219 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUITO) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUITO) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 19.4S 39.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S 39.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 21.2S 39.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 23.2S 39.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 25.6S 38.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 28.1S 39.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 32.2S 42.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 35.8S 47.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 40.2S 55.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 39.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUITO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM WEST OF
ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONTINUED
CONSOLIDATION AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME
TIGHTER WRAPPED WHILE THE FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE REMAINED
BROKEN. AN 182227Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE SYSTEM HAS
REMAINED FAIRLY BROAD WHILE THE BANDING HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE
DEFINED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR ANIMATION ALONG
WITH THE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN 182120Z SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWING 35 TO
45 KNOT WINDS ALONG WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF THE SAME
VALUE FROM KNES AND FMEE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM
IS UNDER A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) WHILE ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ADDITIONALLY SHOWS
GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE EAST. AFTER TAU 48, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND CAUSE TC 15S TO
RECURVE SOUTHEASTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO PEAK
OF 70 KNOTS DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVELS AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES(SSTS). AFTER TAU 48, INCREASING VWS ALONG WITH
DECREASING SSTS WILL BEGIN A SLOW WEAKENING PROCESS. EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY TAU 72 AND WILL COMPLETE BY
TAU 120 AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE FORECAST TRACK, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 191500Z AND 200300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20140219 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUITO) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUITO) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 21.0S 39.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S 39.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 23.1S 39.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 25.6S 39.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 28.2S 39.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 30.9S 41.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 35.4S 46.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 21.5S 39.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GUITO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405 NM WEST
OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED AND DEEPENED AS A RAGGED
PARTIAL EYE DEVELOPED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS AVERAGED FROM AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55-65 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS UNDER A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG POLEWARD BIAS THAT
IS ENHANCING THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST. AFTER TAU 36, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND CAUSE TC 15S TO RECURVE
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. TC GUITO WILL BECOME
A COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 72. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY MAINLY
DUE TO THE STRONG OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, INTENSIFICATION WILL BE MINIMAL
DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS THE
CYCLONE DRIFTS POLEWARD. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH GFDN AS THE LONE OUTLIER, ERRONEOUSLY TRACKING
THE VORTEX WESTWARD AFTER TAU 24. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z AND 201500Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20140219 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUITO) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUITO) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 21.9S 39.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.9S 39.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 24.1S 38.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 26.3S 38.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 29.1S 39.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 31.8S 41.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 37.1S 49.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 22.5S 39.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GUITO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
(IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH SPIRAL
BANDING WRAPPED INTO A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
191534Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FORMATIVE BANDING TIGHTLY
WRAPPED INTO A WELL-DEFINED LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
THE IR ANIMATION AND ABOVE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE CONGRUENT DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND FMEE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TC 15S IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY,
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW THAT IS
FURTHER ENHANCING THE DEVELOPMENT. TC 15S IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, LEADING TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS BY TAU 24. TC GUITO IS TRACKING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE EAST. BY
TAU 36, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND CAUSE TC 15S TO TURN SOUTHEASTWARD.
AFTER TAU 36, TC 15S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER COOL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VWS AREA, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN.
TC 15S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU
48 AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 20 FEET. TC 15S WARNING CYCLE HAS BEEN SHIFTED
TO AN EARLY CYCLE AND THE NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z AND 202100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20140220 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUITO) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUITO) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 24.6S 38.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.6S 38.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 27.4S 38.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 29.9S 39.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 32.2S 40.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 34.4S 43.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 39.0S 51.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 25.3S 38.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUITO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 575 NM SOUTHWEST
OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE STRUCTURAL ORGANIZATION FOR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) REMAINS WELL DEFINED. THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LLCC HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS THE EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW HAS WEAKENED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS THAT IS NOW LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF TC 15S.
THE WEAKENING OF THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS MITIGATED THE
STRONGER INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS TC
15S CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH, AN INCREASE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO INTENSIFICATION
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEYOND TAU 24 THE DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL HAMPER FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT AND LEAD TO A WEAKENING TREND. BY TAU 36 INTERACTION
WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL START THE EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION PROCESS; COMPLETING THE TRANSITION BY TAU 72. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 20
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z AND 210900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20140220 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUITO) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUITO) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 27.4S 38.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.4S 38.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 29.4S 38.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 31.6S 39.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 33.9S 41.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 35.6S 44.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 39.9S 54.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 27.9S 38.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GUITO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 695 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION, WITH PERSISTENT
SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPED INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
A 201808Z MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE TIGHTLY WRAPPED
INTO A WELL-DEFINED LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE WELL ORGANIZATION AND DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND FMEE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH
IS EVIDENT IN THE ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HOWEVER, UPPER-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTERACTION BETWEEN AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE WEST AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ANCHORED TO THE EAST IS CAUSING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE, HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT. BY TAU 24, THE DECREASING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VWS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TC
15S. BY TAU 36, INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL
START THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) PROCESS AND IS EXPECTED TO
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 60. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
210900Z AND 212100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20140221 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUITO) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUITO) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 29.9S 38.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.9S 38.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 31.8S 39.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 33.3S 41.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 35.2S 43.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 37.2S 46.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 30.4S 39.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GUITO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 795 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A TIGHTLY-WRAPPED, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE PRIMARY DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND
DISPLACED OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS. A 210527Z SSMIS
37 GHZ IMAGE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A WELL-ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH
TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE,
THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS, SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS, BASED ON THE
EXCELLENT CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND RECENT OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 65 TO 70 KNOTS. TC 15S IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST
TO RE-CURVE SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) BY TAU 24. TC GUITO IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT NEAR TAU 48 AS
IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND GAINS
FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. DUE TO THE TIGHT AGREEMENT IN DYNAMIC MODEL
SOLUTIONS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 212100Z AND 220900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20140221 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUITO) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUITO) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 31.8S 40.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.8S 40.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 33.5S 41.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 35.4S 44.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 37.4S 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 32.2S 40.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUITO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 850 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN ELONGATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A
211555Z TRMM 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A TIGHTLY-
WRAPPED SYSTEM WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT
WHILE DRY AIR IS BEGINNING TO WRAP IN FROM THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY.
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45
KNOTS BASED ON THE CURRENT STRUCTURE AND CONGRUENT DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. TC 15S IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST AND IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE
SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TC GUITO IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 36 AS
IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND GAINS
FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM MAY
WEAKEN BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD (35 KNOTS) BEFORE COMPLETING ETT. DUE
TO THE TIGHT AGREEMENT IN DYNAMIC MODEL SOLUTIONS, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z AND 222100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20140222 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUITO) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUITO) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 32.9S 41.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 32.9S 41.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 34.7S 44.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 33.3S 42.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GUITO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1055 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ST. DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME RAGGED, ENLARGED,
AND FULLY EXPOSED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE
ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES TO CAPTURE THE DELAYED WEAKENING
OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS LOST ITS
WARM CORE AS IT RAPIDLY BECOMES EXTRA-TROPICAL. THIS IS CORROBORATED
BY THE LATEST AMSU-B RADIAL/HEIGHT CROSS SECTION PRODUCT FROM CIRA.
TC 15S IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A COLD-CORE LOW BY TAU 12. CONCURRENTLY,
THE CYCLONE WILL ALSO WEAKEN TO BELOW THE JTWC WARNING THRESHOLD OF
35 KNOTS. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z
IS 15 FEET. //
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_guito.htm | Updated: 24 February 2014 |