Tropical Cyclones [Index]

Tropical Cyclone HADI Southern Hemisphere Summary

WTPS21 PGTW 20140307 02:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 240 NM RADIUS OF 14.3S 150.6E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 070130Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 150.6E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.6S
153.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 150.6E, APPROXIMATELY 125 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A
062353Z METOP-B IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING PERSISTING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FLANK OF THE BROAD LLCC. A 062353Z ASCAT
IMAGE SHOWS THE BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER BUT PROVIDES EVIDENCE THAT
THE SYSTEM IS SLOWLY STRENGTHENING WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING
INTO THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM WILLIS
ISLAND INDICATE 25 TO 30 KNOT SUSTAINED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 20 KNOTS) AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW,
ESPECIALLY POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WHICH IS ENHANCED BY STRONG WESTERLIES
OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. DYNAMIC MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK THE SYSTEM
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH A SLOW INTENSIFICATION TREND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION AND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
080200Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS21 PGTW 20140308 02:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.9S 150.0E TO 18.2S 147.3E WITHIN THE
NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA AT
080130Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.7S
149.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
   THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 150.6E IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 15.7S 149.5E, APPROXIMATELY 45 NM NORTHWEST OF WILLIS
ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH WEAK FORMATIVE BANDING
SHEARED SOUTHWESTWARD. A 072333Z AMSU-B OUTLINES THE FORMATIVE BAND
IN A LINEAR ORIENTATION SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE CYCLONE HAS DRIFTED INTO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, THE OUTFLOW - ESPECIALLY ON THE POLEWARD SIDE -
REMAINS SOLID AND CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.
DYNAMIC MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD AND
INTENSIFIES IT TO AT LEAST 35 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS, SUPPORTED OBSERVATIONS FROM WILLIS ISLAND,
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 070200).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
090200Z.   //
=========================================================================
WTPS21 PGTW 20140310 02:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 170 NM RADIUS OF 18.9S 151.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 100130Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.9S 150.8E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
  THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.4S 150.5E, IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 18.9S 150.8E, APPROXIMATELY 130 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS PARTLY EXPOSED
AS THE DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE
LLCC. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT ON A SERIES OF MICROWAVE SATELLITE PASSES
INCLUDING A 092253Z AMSU-B PASS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM REMAINS IN A POOR ENVIRONMENT AS MODERATE TO STRONG (25 TO 30
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) CONTINUES TO DISPLACE THE CONVECTION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS, SUPPORTED BY A 092254Z SCATTEROMETRY
PASS, ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. NUMERIC MODELS ARE PREDICTING THE
CYCLONE TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD IN THE NEAR TERM. THIS WILL BRING
THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOWER VWS. IN VIEW
OF THIS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
110200Z.  //
=========================================================================
WTPS33 PGTW 20140310 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (HADI) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100151ZMAR2014//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (HADI) WARNING NR 001
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   100600Z --- NEAR 18.9S 151.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 151.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 18.6S 151.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z --- 17.8S 152.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z --- 17.2S 152.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z --- 15.8S 155.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z --- 13.4S 160.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z --- 12.7S 165.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z --- 13.1S 169.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 151.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (HADI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE ILL-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS MOVED CLOSER TO THE DEEP
CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. A 100510Z SSMI
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS AN INCREASE IN CONSOLIDATION AS THE LLCC
MOVED CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
UPON THIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AS THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF AMBIGUITY IN THE EXACT POSITION OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED UPON THE INCREASE IN CONSOLIDATION AS
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AS VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW
IS OFFSETTING STRONG TO MODERATE (20 TO 30 KNOTS) NORTHERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC HADI IS SLOWLY TRACKING ALONG A WEAK PERIPHERY
OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS
NER IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND ACCELERATE
THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY RELAX, ALTHOUGH REMAIN AT
MODERATE LEVELS, AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITS TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A SLOW INTENSIFICATION REACHING 55 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS LARGELY SPREAD
WITH A 500NM SPREAD BY TAU 48. DUE TO THIS, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 102100Z AND 110900Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 100200Z MAR
14 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 100200). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (LUSI) WARNINGS
(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS33 PGTW 20140310 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (HADI) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (HADI) WARNING NR 002
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   101800Z --- NEAR 19.1S 151.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 151.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z --- 18.7S 152.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z --- 17.4S 153.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z --- 16.0S 154.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 14.6S 155.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 12.3S 160.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 12.4S 166.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 13.9S 171.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 152.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (HADI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 514 NM
NORTH OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
A 101622Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS INCREASED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE EIR AND ABOVE MICROWAVE IMAGE
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED
UPON THE INCREASE IN CONSOLIDATION AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS NOW
LOCATED IN AN IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT WITH FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC HADI IS SLOWLY TRACKING ALONG
A WEAK PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM. UNDER INFLUENCE OF A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, TC 19P
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY, POSSIBLY QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY TAU 24, THIS NER IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AND
ACCELERATE TC 19P TO THE NORTHEAST. IN THE LATER TAUS, ANOTHER NER
WILL BUILD TO THE NORTHEAST, DOMINATING THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND
TURNING TC 19P EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. TC 19P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, LEADING TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU
120. AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS IMPROVED; HOWEVER, THERE
IS STILL A 250 NM SPREAD AT TAU 48. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF
MOVEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM AND A LARGE SPREAD AMONG MODEL TRACKERS,
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS
12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z AND 112100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (LUSI) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS33 PGTW 20140311 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (HADI) WARNING NR 003A RELOCATED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (HADI) WARNING NR 003 RELOCATED
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   110600Z --- NEAR 17.5S 151.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 151.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z --- 16.4S 151.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 151.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (HADI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 306 NM
EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC) BECAME FULLY
EXPOSED AND MOVED NORTHWARD, AWAY FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION, OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WEAK LOW LEVEL CAN BE SEEN IN A 110653Z SSMIS-
91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, AND THE NORTHWARD MOTION IS FURTHER
SUBSTANTIATED BY A LOOP OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. THIS WAS
SUFFICIENT EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT THE RELOCATION OF THE LLCC. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE
INSTENSITY WAS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON THE STRUCTURE OF THE
EXPOSED LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT TC 19P SUFFERED
FROM INCREASED SHEAR AS MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING MOVED THROUGH.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL STEERING FLOW, AND THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THE LLCC MAY RE-
ORGANIZE OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS AS UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS
IMPROVE.  THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z
IS 12 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P
(LUSI) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.