[Index]
Tropical Cyclone ITA
Southern Hemisphere Summary
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone ITA Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTPS21 PGTW 20140403 03:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 170 NM RADIUS OF 11.1S 158.7E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 030300Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.1S 158.7E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.7S
159.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1S 158.7E, APPROXIMATELY 695 NM EAST
OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AS A LARGE CDO FEATURE IS
OBSCURING THE IDENTIFICATION OF THE PRECISE SYSTEM CENTER. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB.
DUE TO THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION AND IMPROVING DEEP CONVECTIVE
FEATURES, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
040330Z.//
NNNN
=========================================================================
WTPS21 PGTW 20140404 03:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030321ZAPR2014//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 190 NM RADIUS OF 11.7S 157.6E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 040300Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.7S 157.6E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.1S
158.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7S 157.6E, APPROXIMATELY 630 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING. A
032234Z ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES A DEFINED LLCC WITH 30-40 KNOT WINDS
WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS, WHILE THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT REMAINS WEAK AT 10-20 KNOTS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. DYNAMIC MODELS SHOW CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS AWAY FROM THE SOLOMON ISLANDS. DUE TO THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
050330Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20140404 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (TWENTYTHREE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (TWENTYTHREE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 11.3S 156.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.3S 156.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 11.8S 154.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 12.3S 153.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 12.7S 153.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 12.9S 152.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 12.9S 150.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 12.4S 148.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 12.3S 145.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 11.4S 155.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (TWENTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 687 NM
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON A RECENT SATELLITE FIX FROM PGTW AND A 041757Z
SSMIS PASS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE FIX
ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW. TC 23P HAS INTENSIFIED TO THE
WARNING THRESHOLD INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS IN
RESPONSE TO PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF ITS CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE LLCC REMAINS EXPOSED DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW
AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT INDUCED BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST.
TC 23P IS TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE SYSTEM.
GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE STEERING RIDGE PERSISTS, ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM
SHOULD DIP POLEWARD IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH PASSING TO THE SOUTH WEAKENS THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY. SLOW
INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR IN THE NEAR TERM AS THE FAVORABLE
INFLUENCES OF PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ARE
OFFSET BY CONTINUED EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALOFT. STEADIER
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SHEAR
RELAXES A BIT. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST SCENARIO, ALTHOUGH TRACK SPEEDS
VARY, WITH GFS SHOWING A SLOWER TRACK IN THE NEAR TERM IN RESPONSE
TO ANTICIPATED WEAKENING OF THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE
RIDGE WEAKENING IN GFS IS INCONSISTENT WITH CURRENT EXPECTATIONS FOR
EVOLUTION OF THE STEERING PATTERN. THUS, THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK
FAVORS A SCENARIO DEPICTED BY NAVGEM, THE UKMET MODEL, AND ECMWF,
WHICH SHOW A STEADY WESTWARD TRACK DRIVEN BY A CONTINUOUS, UNBROKEN
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z AND 052100Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES
AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 040321Z APR
14 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 040330).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20140405 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (TWENTYTHREE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (TWENTYTHREE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 11.8S 155.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S 155.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 12.2S 155.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 12.6S 154.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 12.9S 154.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 13.0S 153.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 12.5S 152.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 12.3S 150.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 13.2S 147.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 11.9S 155.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (TWENTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 652 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION WITH SPIRAL BANDING
WRAPPED INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
EXCELLENT OUTFLOW. TC 23P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DIP POLEWARD
IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING TO THE
SOUTH WEAKENS THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO
FURTHER INTENSIFY. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT;
HOWEVER, TRACK SPEEDS VARY AMONG AVAILABLE MODEL TRACKERS. DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY OF WEAKENING OF THE STEERING RIDGE IN THE NEAR TERM,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 050600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z AND 060900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20140405 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ITA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ITA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 12.2S 154.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S 154.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 12.5S 154.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 12.8S 154.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 12.8S 153.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 12.6S 153.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 12.4S 152.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 12.7S 151.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 13.7S 149.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 154.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 599 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A
RECENT PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND A 051614Z SSMI PASS. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM KNES
AND PGTW. DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED ALONG THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS IN THE PRESENCE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 23P IS TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG A
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE SOUTH. THIS MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF TC 23P IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A BREAK
IN THE STEERING RIDGE AFTER TAU 12. AS A RESULT, THE CYCLONE WILL
ENTER A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND LIKELY REMAIN NEARLY
QUASISTATIONARY BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 48. AS THE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD, SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN ITS
WAKE AND IS EXPECTED TO STEER TC 23P BACK TOWARD A WESTWARD TRACK
AFTER TAU 48. THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY SLOWLY IN THE NEAR TERM, AS
FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS OFFSET BY CONTINUING, THOUGH
DECREASING, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND POTENTIAL OCEAN COOLING DURING
THE ANTICIPATED PERIOD OF QUASISTATIONARY MOTION. AFTER TAU 48,
HOWEVER, GENERALLY STEADIER INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK,
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
QUASISTATIONARY MOTION IN THE MEDIUM TERM, FOLLOWED BY THE
RESUMPTION OF A WESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE CURRENT
FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER, BASED ON
DIVERGING NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS
16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z AND 062100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20140406 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ITA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ITA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 12.3S 153.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 153.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 12.4S 153.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 12.4S 152.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 12.3S 152.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 12.2S 151.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 12.7S 149.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 14.2S 147.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 16.1S 145.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 153.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A
RECENT PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND A 061638Z TRMM IMAGE. THE INTENSITY OF
45 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND ABRF. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO STORM
STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH DEEP CONVECTION STILL
PRIMARILY CONCENTRATED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 23P HAS ENTERED A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A
BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN
THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE THE
BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED AND CARRIES THE
SYSTEM ON A WESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TC 23P IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
SOUTHEAST, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THESE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM, ALTHOUGH
OCEAN COOLING DUE TO SLOW TRACK SPEEDS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE
INTENSIFICATION TREND SLOW THROUGH TAU 24. STEADIER INTENSIFICATION
IS EXPECTED AFTER TAU 24 AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES WESTWARD AND
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS REMAIN IN PLACE. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK,
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS CONTINUE TO PROJECT A PERIOD
OF QUASISTATIONARY MOTION IN THE NEAR TERM, FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD
TO SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK LIES WITHIN THE
PRIMARY GROUPING OF MODELS, WHICH INCLUDES THE GFS, NAVGEM, UKMET,
HWRF, AND COAMPS-TC. HOWEVER, BASED ON SPREAD IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 070900Z AND 072100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20140407 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ITA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ITA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 12.1S 153.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S 153.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 12.1S 153.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 12.0S 152.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 12.0S 151.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 12.1S 150.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 13.0S 147.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 14.7S 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 16.6S 143.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 12.1S 153.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (ITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 532 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WITH
SPIRAL BANDING TIGHTLY-WRAPPED INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 070403Z NOAA-19 MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO
REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE WELL-
DEFINED LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND ABOVE
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 45
KNOTS IS BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. HOWEVER, TC 23P IS UNDER INFLUENCE OF A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A
BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, CAUSING SLOW TRACK SPEEDS
AND POSSIBLY QUASISTATIONARY MOVEMENT THROUGH TAU 24. BY TAU 36, THE
BUILDING STR WILL DOMINATE THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND DRIVE TC 23P
ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AS WELL AS WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST, ALLOWING TC 23P TO
STEADILY INTENSIFY WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS BY TAU 96. TC
23P IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS IT PASSES OVER LAND BY TAU
120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EXACT
TRACK, ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
QUASISTATIONARY MOTION IN THE NEAR TERM, FOLLOWED BY THE RESUMPTION
OF A WESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. BASED ON DIVERGING NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE UNCERTAINTY OF MOVEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z AND
080900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20140407 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ITA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ITA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 11.7S 153.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.7S 153.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 11.6S 152.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 11.7S 151.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 11.9S 150.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 12.2S 148.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 13.5S 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 16.4S 144.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 19.0S 146.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 11.7S 153.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (ITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 531 NM
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CICRULATION CENTER (LLCC)
OBSCURED BY A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. A 071543Z TRMM IMAGE
INDICATES TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LLCC,
WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY
STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
60 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 TO
65 KNOTS. TC 23P HAS TURNED WESTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND IS
FORECAST TO ACCELERATE WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDS OVER THE CORAL SEA. THE BULK OF
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48,
THEREFORE, THE FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AFTER TAU 48 DUE TO AN
APPROACHING MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH, CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER
WESTERN AUSTRALIA, WHICH WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN THE WESTERN EXTENT OF
THE STR AND PROVIDE A POLEWARD STEERING PATTERN. THE JTWC FORECAST
FAVORS THE NAVGEM AND GFS SOLUTIONS AS THE ECMWF AND UKMO SOLUTIONS
APPEAR UNLIKELY AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF
CARPENTARIA INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. TC 23P IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU 72 DUE TO
FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST (28 TO 29 CELSIUS). AFTER
TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION BUT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO WATER AS IT
RE-CURVES SOUTHWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS
22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z AND 082100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20140408 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ITA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ITA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 11.5S 152.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.5S 152.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 11.5S 151.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 11.9S 150.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 12.5S 148.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 13.2S 146.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 14.9S 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 17.5S 146.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 20.4S 149.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 11.5S 152.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 507 NM
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CICRULATION CENTER (LLCC)
OBSCURED BY A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. DEEP CENTRAL
CONVECTION IS BUILDING OVER THE LLCC AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE
AWAY FROM SUDEST ISLAND. A 080515Z PARTIAL AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS
THE LLCC SURROUNDED BY TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING ALONG THE EASTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE, AND SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION. MSI SHOWS EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS, ENHANCED BY STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES, WITH THE ABRF AND
SATCON ESTIMATES AT 77 KNOTS AND 55 KNOTS, RESPECTIVELY. TC 23P IS
FORECAST TO ACCELERATE WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDS OVER THE CORAL SEA. THE BULK OF
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
MOVEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 AS THE SYSTEM NEARS THE AUSTRALIAN
COASTLINE. THEREFORE, THE FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AFTER TAU 48 DUE TO AN
APPROACHING MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH, CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER
WESTERN AUSTRALIA, WHICH WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN THE WESTERN EXTENT OF
THE STR AND CAUSE A SHARP RECURVATURE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE GUIDANCE
VARIES GREATLY IN THE TIMING AND SPEED OF RECURVATURE, LEADING TO
POOR FORECAST CONFIDENCE AFTER TAU 48. THE ECMWF AND UKMO SOLUTIONS
ARE SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS, CONTINUING TO DRIVE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD
OVER THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. TC 23P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A
PEAK INTENSITY OF AROUND 110 KNOTS AFTER TAU 48 DUE TO FAVORABLE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS (28 TO 29 CELSIUS). BY TAU 72, THE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASED LAND INTERACTION BUT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO WATER AS IT
RE-CURVES SOUTHWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS
23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z AND 090900Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20140408 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ITA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ITA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 11.4S 152.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.4S 152.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 11.4S 150.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 12.0S 148.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 12.7S 147.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 13.5S 146.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 16.1S 145.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 19.0S 148.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 21.6S 151.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 11.4S 151.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (ITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 489 NM
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. A 081707Z SSMI IMAGE DEPICTS
TIGHTLY-CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THERE
IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES RANGING FROM 65
TO 77 KNOTS. TC 23P HAS TRACKED WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER
THE CORAL SEA. THE BULK OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THE FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS ARE ECMWF AND JGSM
SOLUTIONS, WHICH INDICATE AN UNLIKELY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA. THERE IS
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AFTER TAU 48 DUE TO AN APPROACHING MAJOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGH, CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA, WHICH
WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR AND PROVIDE A
POLEWARD STEERING PATTERN. THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS THE NAVGEM AND
GFS SOLUTIONS. TC 23P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY
OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU 48 DUE TO FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM
SST (28 TO 29 CELSIUS). BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN DUE TO
LAND INTERACTION AS IT SKIRTS THE EAST COAST OF AUSTRALIA. TC 23P IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 120. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
090900Z AND 092100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20140409 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ITA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ITA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 11.5S 150.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.5S 150.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 12.0S 148.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 12.8S 147.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 13.6S 146.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 14.8S 145.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 17.5S 146.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 20.3S 149.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 23.0S 153.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 11.6S 149.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 413 NM
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. A 090537Z TRMM 37GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-
FORMED MICROWAVE EYE. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS FROM
PGTW AND KNES AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE IMPROVING STRUCTURE. TC
23P HAS TRACKED WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER THE CORAL SEA. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 23P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW (05 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ROBUST OUTFLOW, IN ADDITION
TO WARM SSTS. THE BULK OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THE FORECAST IS POSITIONED
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS ARE THE
ECMWF AND JGSM SOLUTIONS, WHICH INDICATE AN UNLIKELY WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA.
THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY CALLS FOR AN APPROACHING MAJOR SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO WEAKEN THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR AND PROVIDE A
SOUTHWARD RECURVATURE INTO A POLEWARD STEERING PATTERN. THE JTWC
FORECAST FAVORS THE NAVGEM, GFS, AND HWRF SOLUTIONS. TC 23P IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105-110 KNOTS BY TAU 36
DUE TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, AFTER WHICH INCREASING
LAND INTERACTION ALONG THE EASTERN AUSTRALIAN COAST WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. TC 23P IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION NEAR TAU 120.MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z
IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z AND 100900Z. //
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20140409 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ITA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ITA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 11.7S 148.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.7S 148.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 12.3S 147.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 13.3S 146.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 14.4S 145.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 15.5S 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 18.0S 146.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 20.7S 150.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 23.0S 155.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 11.9S 148.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE
WITH TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 091833Z SSMIS IMAGE REVEALS A WELL-
DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE WITH MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO
THE SYSTEM CENTER. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND ABRF. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
TC 23P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND STRONG EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 23P HAS
TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER THE CORAL SEA. THE BULK OF
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO TIGHTER AGREEMENT
AND THE FORECAST REMAINS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE JGSM SOLUTION, WHICH INDICATES
AN UNLIKELY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE CAPE
YORK PENINSULA. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY CALLS FOR AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO WEAKEN THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR, ALLOWING
FOR A RECURVE SCENARIO INTO THE MID-LATITUDE STEERING PATTERN. THE
JTWC FORECAST FAVORS THE NAVGEM, GFS, AND HWRF SOLUTIONS. TC 23P IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU 24 DUE
TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. AFTER WHICH INCREASING LAND
INTERACTION ALONG THE EASTERN AUSTRALIAN COAST WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM. TC 23P IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
NEAR TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z AND 102100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20140410 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ITA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ITA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 12.5S 147.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 147.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 13.4S 146.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 14.6S 145.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 15.7S 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 16.8S 145.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 19.4S 148.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 22.2S 153.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 24.9S 160.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 146.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (ITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE WRAPPED TIGHTER
INTO A 10-NM PINHOLE EYE AS THE SYSTEM - CHARACTERIZED BY SHARP
CURVED OUTLINES - HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE MSI LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 23P IS IN A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW (05 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE
CYCLONE IS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED OVER THE CORAL SEA. AFTER TAU 12,
TC 23P WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE STR AXIS IN ANTICIPATION FOR A
SOUTHEASTWARD RECURVATURE AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STR. AFTER TAU 48, THE
CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD THEN BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96. TC ITA WILL PEAK AT 135 KNOTS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS PERSIST.
AFTERWARDS, INTERACTION WITH THE AUSTRALIAN COAST AS IT MAKES
LANDFALL NORTH OF CAIRNS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT BACK INTO THE CORAL SEA BEFORE TAU 72
BUT WITH INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, A
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN A TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
102100Z AND 110900Z. //
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20140410 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ITA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ITA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 13.3S 146.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 146.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 14.4S 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 15.4S 144.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 16.7S 145.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 18.1S 146.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 20.3S 150.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 22.7S 155.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 23.8S 161.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 145.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 216 NM
NORTHWARD OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MULTIPLE TIGHTLY CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDS WRAPPED INTO A 16 NM EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE EYE IN THE EIR LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 135 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM 127 TO 140 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 23P IS IN A
HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED OVER
THE CORAL SEA. TC 23P IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ROUNDING THE STR AXIS
LEADING TO A SOUTHEASTWARD RECURVATURE AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STR. AFTER
TAU 36, THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD THEN
BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 72. TC ITA IS BELIEVED TO HAVE
REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY. A QUICK WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED
FOLLOWING TAU 12 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SLIGHTLY INLAND OVER THE
EASTERN AUSTRALIAN COAST. INTERACTION WITH THE COASTLINE AS IT MAKES
LANDFALL NORTH OF CAIRNS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT BACK INTO THE CORAL SEA NEAR TAU 48 BUT
WITH INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, A GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN A TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
JTWC FORECAST WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 110900Z AND 112100Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20140411 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ITA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ITA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 14.5S 145.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 145.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 15.7S 145.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 16.8S 145.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 18.2S 146.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 19.6S 148.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 22.1S 153.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 24.6S 160.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 145.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (ITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 146 NM NORTH
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS A VERY INTENSE AND GEOMETRIC CYCLONE THAT IS FAST
APPROACHING THE EASTERN COAST OF YORK PENINSULA. THE FEEDER BAND TO
THE SOUTH HAS BEGUN TO FRAGMENT AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE AUSTRALIAN
LANDMASS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE 08-NM EYE FEATURE IN
THE MSI LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TC 23P IS IN A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) ANCHORED OVER THE CORAL SEA. TC ITA HAS BEGUN TO ROUND THE STR
AXIS, PRELUDE TO A SOUTHEASTWARD RECURVATURE AS A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STR.
AFTER TAU 24, THE CYCLONE WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD THEN BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 48. A RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
AFTER THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS JUST NORTH
OF CAIRNS. HOWEVER, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT BACK INTO THE
CORAL SEA NEAR TAU 48 BUT WITH INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, THE WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS
THE CYCLONE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. TC 23P WILL
BECOME A COLD CORE EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW BY TAU 96. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN A TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 30
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z AND 120900Z. //
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20140411 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ITA) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ITA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 15.5S 145.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 145.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 16.8S 145.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 18.4S 146.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 20.0S 148.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 21.8S 151.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 24.9S 157.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 145.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (ITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 96 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 23P MADE LANDFALL NEAR CAPE
FLATTERY AROUND 11/12Z AND HAS CONTINUED INLAND OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT CAPE FLATTERY INDICATED MAXIMUM 10-
MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 61 KNOTS GUSTING TO 86 KNOTS AND A MINIMUM
SLP OF 962 MB. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CAIRNS RADAR
IMAGERY SHOW A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
DISPLACED PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO INCREASING
NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS STRUCTURE IS ALSO EVIDENT IN AN
111734Z NOAA-18 IMAGE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS. TC 23P IS
FORECAST TO RE-CURVE SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 24 ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SHOULD BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 36 AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING WESTERLIES
AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 23P IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT
NEAR TAU 72 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND ACCELERATES INTO
THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 120900Z AND 122100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20140412 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ITA) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ITA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 16.7S 145.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 145.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 18.1S 146.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 19.6S 147.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 21.0S 150.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 22.5S 152.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 25.6S 159.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 145.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (ITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 31 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS THAT, DESPITE REMAINING OVERLAND FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE DAY, THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED WELL
DEFINED AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS REMAINED
TIGHTLY WRAPPED. RADAR IMAGERY FROM CAIRNS SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO RECEIVE
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE CORAL SEA WHILE THE CONVECTION ALONG THE
WESTERN FLANK HAS SLIGHTLY SHALLOWED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
UPON THE RADAR ANIMATION ALONG WITH THE MSI LOOP WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE FAIRLY DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
50 KNOTS IS BASED UPON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA WITH 46 KNOT
SUSTAINED 10-MINUTE WINDS RECORDED AT LOW ISLES LIGHTHOUSE. TC 23P
HAS STARTED TO TRACK SOUTHEAST AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND SHOULD BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 36 AS IT
BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER THE WESTERLIES AND THE ASSOCIATED STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHILE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL START TO
BECOME MARGINAL. TC ITA WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72 AND BECOME A
GALE FORCE, COLD CORE LOW. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT; THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED SLIGHTLY
FASTER AND INSIDE THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET A KNOWN
HISTORICAL BIAS DURING THE RECURVE SCENARIO WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z AND 130900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20140412 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ITA) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ITA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 17.8S 146.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 146.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 19.4S 147.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 20.8S 150.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 22.4S 152.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 24.2S 155.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 28.0S 162.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 146.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (ITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 55 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND BOWEN RADAR IMAGERY DEPICT A BROAD, BUT WELL-DEFINED CENTER WITH
TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING. A 121602Z AMSU-B IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING CONFINED MAINLY TO THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. OVERALL, THERE
IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MORE DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN, HOWEVER, IT IS
ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AS WELL AS
OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 40
TO 50 KNOTS. TC 23P IS FORECAST TO RE-CURVE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SHOULD BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 36 AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
WESTERLIES AND STRONGER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 23P IS FORECAST TO
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND
ACCELERATES INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 10
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z AND 132100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20140413 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ITA) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ITA) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 20.1S 148.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S 148.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 21.8S 151.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 23.4S 154.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 24.5S 156.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 25.9S 159.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 149.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (ITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 519 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) AND THE BOWEN RADAR LOOP SHOW TC 23P HAS MADE
LANDFALL, AGAIN, WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING REMAINS ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
SYSTEM AS THE CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM HAS
BEEN STYMIED DUE TO THE LAND INTERACTION. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE WELL DEFINED LLCC SEEN IN THE
RADAR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED
ON THE DEFINED STRUCTURE SEEN IN THE MSI ANIMATION AND RADAR LOOP AS
WELL AS OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SUSTAINED 10 MINUTE WINDS OF 20 TO 30
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS. TC 23P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND SHOULD BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND START TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN NEAR TAU 24 AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING WESTERLIES AND
STRONGER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 23P IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY
TAU 48 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND ACCELERATES INTO THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 132100Z AND 140900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20140413 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ITA) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ITA) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 22.2S 151.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.2S 151.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 24.1S 155.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 25.4S 158.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 26.7S 161.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 22.7S 152.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (ITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 332 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND GLADSTONE RADAR IMAGERY DEPICT RAPIDLY WEAKENING CORE CONVECTION
DUE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH THE BULK
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. A 131713Z NOAA-18 IMAGE SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER POSITIONED ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS
FROM KNES AS WELL AS ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CREAL REEF
INDICATING SUSTAINED 10-MINUTE WINDS OF 35 TO 37 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 46 KNOTS. TC 23P IS RE-CURVING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SHOULD BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 12 AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
WESTERLIES AND STRONGER VWS. TC 23P IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY
TAU 36 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND ACCELERATES INTO THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140900Z AND 142100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20140414 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ITA) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ITA) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 23.7S 155.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.7S 155.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 25.0S 158.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 24.0S 155.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (ITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS TC 23P HAS STARTED TO RAPIDLY UNDERGO EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT BECOMES FURTHER EMBEDDED IN THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS STARTED TO
ELONGATE WHILE THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME SHEARED TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO TAKE ON FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS. THE LATEST AMSU CROSS SECTION ADDITIONALLY SHOWS A
DEVELOPING WARM CORE ANOMALY IN THE LOWER LEVELS, INDICATIVE OF A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT, WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL WARM CORE ANOMALY HAS
DISSIPATED. AS TC ITA CONTINUES SOUTHEAST, THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
FROM THE WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO FURTHER ACCELERATE THE ETT
PROCESS, TRANSITIONING THE SYSTEM INTO A GALE FORCE LOW WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z
IS 12 FEET.//
| [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy] | |
| Document: tropical_cyclone_ita.htm | Updated: 15 April 2014 |