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Tropical Cyclone JACK Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTXS21 PGTW 20140418 14:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.9S 92.2E TO 15.6S 90.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 181200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.4S 91.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.7S
93.3E IS LOCATED NEAR 12.4S 91.9E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM WEST OF
COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A BUILDING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
FEATURE. A 181032Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS IMPROVED TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING
OVER THE LLCC WHILE THE SYSTEM HAS OVERALL BECOME BETTER DEFINED.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH VIGOROUS
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 28 TO 30
DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
191400Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20140418 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (TWENTYFOUR) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/181351ZAPR2014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (TWENTYFOUR) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 12.5S 91.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 91.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 13.0S 90.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 13.6S 90.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 14.1S 90.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 15.0S 91.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 17.3S 93.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 20.5S 95.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 24.3S 98.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 12.6S 91.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (TWENTYFOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 313 NM
WEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) AND ASSOCIATED TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING (TCB) OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. A MOSAIC OF RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY FURTHER SUPPORTS
THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH A 181229Z SSMIS 91
GHZ IMAGE REVEALING A WELL DEFINED INNER STRUCTURE WITH TCB WRAPPING
IN ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
EIR AND THE PGTW FIX WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK FINAL INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35
KNOTS FROM ALL FIXING AGENCIES AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE OVERALL
STRUCTURE OBSERVED IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TC 24S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT NEARLY UNDERNEATH THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS, WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW SEEN IN
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, AND CIMSS UPPER-LEVEL WIND ANALYSIS
INDICATING GOOD POLEWARD DIFLUENCE AND DEVELOPMENT OF A POINT
SOURCE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS LOW (10-15 KNOTS) AND MAY
DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS. ADDITIONALLY,
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE 28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC
24S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD A WEAKNESS
IN THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE. THIS WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNTIL AN APPROACHING DEEP LAYER
TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND INTERACT WITH TC 24S.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK OF 80 KNOTS AT TAU 48 GIVEN
THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND ENHANCED OUTFLOW RESULTING FROM THE
TROUGH INTERACTION. SEVERAL MODELS, INCLUDING THE HWRF AND COAMPS-TC
SHOWS SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION OFTEN SEEN DURING RAPID
INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 48, VWS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY AND BEGIN
TO WEAKEN TC 24S. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
OVER THE LLCC IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE SSTS IN
THE EXTENDED TAUS WILL RESULT IN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT)
BEGINNING AROUND TAU 72. THE SYSTEM MAY REMAIN AN INTENSE EXTRA-
TROPICAL SYSTEM AFTER COMPLETING ETT PRIOR TO TAU 120. THERE IS
A LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE WITH HWRF THE
EXTREME EASTWARD OUTLIER AND COTC AT THE WESTWARD EXTREME. BASED ON
THIS SPREAD, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK,
WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE MEAN OF AVAILABLE CONSENSUS MODELS WITH THESE
TWO OUTLIERS REMOVED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS
12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z AND 192100Z. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI
181351Z APR 14 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 181400).
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20140419 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JACK) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JACK) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 13.4S 91.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S 91.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 14.3S 90.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 15.1S 91.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 15.8S 91.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 16.6S 92.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 18.4S 92.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 19.8S 93.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 20.7S 94.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 91.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JACK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 343 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WHERE AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE HAS BECOME
APPARENT. THE SAME ANIMATION ALSO SHOWS A VERY STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT VENTILATION OVER THE SYSTEM. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE 190530Z DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS UNDERNEATH A RIDGE
AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA AT 28-29 CELSIUS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TC 24S IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 24, A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH DIGGING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL WEAKEN THE STR AND CAUSE
THE SYSTEM TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER ESCALATE AS THE CYCLONE
APPROACHES THE STRONG WESTERLIES RESULTING IN POSSIBLE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 100 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 36, AS THE CYCLONE
TRACKS FURTHER SOUTHWARD, THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL
TRANSLATE TO STRONG VWS. THIS, IN ADDITION TO COOLING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN A RAPID EROSION OF THE SYSTEM, WITH
TOTAL DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY END OF FORECAST. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48; AFTERWHICH, THE MODELS
SPREAD OUT SIGNIFICANTLY - AN INDICATION OF WEAKENING WHEREBY THE
TRACKERS BEGIN TO LOSE THE VORTEX. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST ONLY UP TO TAU 48. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
192100Z AND 200900Z. //
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20140419 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JACK) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JACK) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 14.5S 90.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 90.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 15.2S 91.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 15.8S 91.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 16.4S 91.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 17.1S 92.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 18.7S 93.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 19.2S 94.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 90.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (JACK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(EIR) SHOWS TC 24S HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE ITS ORGANIZATION, WITH
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPED TIGHTLY INTO A COMPACT LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. A 191406Z TRMM 37 GHZ IMAGE REVEALED THE SOLID
INNER CORE STRUCTURE WITH A MICROWAVE EYE, WITH THE DEEPEST
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. THE
INITIAL POSIION IS BASED ON THE EIR AND AGENCY FIXES AS WELL AS AN
EXTRAPOLATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TRMM IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING BETWEEN 77 TO 90 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TC 24S IS UNDERNEATH A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANMIATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
TC 24S IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 12, A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH DIGGING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL WEAKEN THE STR AND CAUSE
THE SYSTEM TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT, AND TC
24S IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS AT TAU 24.
AFTER THAT TIME, A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN VWS BROUGHT ABOUT BY THE
DEEP TROUGH AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN
RAPID WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AND MAY ALSO START THE EXTRA-TROPICAL
PROCESS AT THE SAME TIME. DYNAMICAL MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A POOR
HANDLE ON THE ANALYSIS OF THIS INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE, AND AS A
RESULT, THERE IS GROWING SPREAD IN THE SOLUTIONS. THE GFS MODEL
APPEARS TO HAVE THE MOST REALISITC INITIAL REPRESENTATION AND AGREES
WITH THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. BASED ON THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD, THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH FAVORS THE GFS
AND JGSM SOLUTIONS. THE FORECAST TRACK SPEEDS IN THE LATER TAUS HAVE
ALSO BEEN REDUCED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE LLCC MAY
BECOME UNCOUPLED FROM THE CONVECTION AND TRACK MORE CLOSELY WITH THE
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z
IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z AND 202100Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20140420 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JACK) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JACK) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 15.2S 91.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 91.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 15.8S 91.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 16.4S 91.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 17.1S 92.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 18.1S 92.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 19.6S 93.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 20.1S 94.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 91.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JACK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM REMAINS TIGHTLY
WRAPPED; HOWEVER, THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO ELONGATE
POLEWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND
EXTRAPOLATED FROM AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE ON A 200458Z TRMM MICROWAVE
PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE
200530Z DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE CYCLONE IS NOW 05 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN
AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) HAVE ALSO DIPPED
TO 27 CELSIUS. HOWEVER, A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL CONTINUES
TO PROVIDE STRONG VENTILATION TO THE SYSTEM. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
DIGGING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST HAS INFLICTED SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
WESTERN FLANK OF TC 24S. ADDITIONALLY, IT HAS WEAKENED THE STEERING
RIDGE TO THE EAST CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO TRACK ON A MORE SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY. IT APPEARS TC JACK HAS PEAKED INTENSITY
AND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN FROM HERE ON MOSTLY DUE TO INCREASING VWS
AND COOLING SSTS. IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER BY TAU 96. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC
GUIDANCE ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48 WHEN THE MEMBERS SPREAD
OUT SIGNIFICANTLY - AN INDICATION OF A WEAK VORTEX. IN VIEW OF THIS,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST - LAID OVER THE MODEL
CONSENSUS - UP TO TAU 48 ONLY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
200600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z AND 210900Z. //
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20140420 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JACK) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JACK) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 15.3S 91.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 91.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 15.9S 91.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 16.7S 92.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 17.5S 92.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 18.5S 93.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 19.4S 94.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 91.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JACK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE CONVECTION AROUND TC 24S IS BECOMING MORE
RAGGED AS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH BRINGS SUBSIDENCE ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT, AND ELONGATES CONVECTION IN THE POLEWARD
DIRECTION. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY HAS REVEALED A VERTICAL TILT OF
THE VORTEX IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. HOWEVER, CORE CONVECTION HAS REMAINED
LARGELY INTACT, AND TC 24S HAS REMAINED NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY FOR
THE TIME BEING THANKS TO ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A RAGGED EYE-LIKE FEATURE IN THE BD-CURVE AND
TAKING INTO ACCOUNT A 201538Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
CURRENT POSITION INDICATES TC 24S HAS SLOWED AND MOVED ERRATICALLY
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS THE APPROACHING TROUGH DISRUPTS THE DEEP-
LAYER MEAN FLOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS BASED
ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 77 TO 90 KNOTS,
AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE DEGRADED ORGANIZATION. TC 24S IS
TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A STEERING RIDGE. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING
INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE AS THE ENHANCED CONVECTION BEGINS TO TAPER
OFF AND VWS IS INCREASING. ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS) HAVE ALSO DIPPED TO 27 CELSIUS. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH
INCREASING VWS BRINGING ABOUT A RAPID DISSIPATION. AFTER TAU 48, THE
WEAKEND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER MAY DRIFT EASTWARD PRIOR TO
DISSIPATION OVER WATER. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION THROUGH TAU 36, AFTER WHICH TIME MODELS
DIVERGE IN DIRECTION AND SPEED, RELATING TO THE STRENGTH OF THE
VORTEX REPRESENTATION WITHIN EACH MODEL. THE JTWC FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO THE PRIOR FORECAST AND SLIGHLTY SLOWER THAN THE MEAN OF ALL
CONSENSUS MODELS BETWEEN TAUS 36-72. BASED ON THE SIGNIFICANT MODEL
SPREAD, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK ONLY THROUGH
TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210900Z AND 212100Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20140421 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JACK) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JACK) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 16.3S 92.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 92.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 17.0S 93.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 18.2S 94.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 19.3S 94.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 19.7S 94.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 19.8S 95.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 92.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JACK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 346 NM SOUTHWEST
OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED DEEP CONVECTION EVEN AS THE
OVERALL STRUCTURE HAS SHEARED AND ELONGATED SOUTHEASTWARD. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE ON A
210402Z TRMM MICROWAVE PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND
APRF AND REFLECTS THE SLOW WEAKENING TREND OF THE CYCLONE. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED FURTHER AWAY AND IS
NOW 10 DEGREES FROM THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG
(20-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, A STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL CONTINUES TO PROVIDE AMPLE VENTILATION. DUE TO
INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, TC 24S IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THEN EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 72.
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SOUTHEASTWARD
MOTION THROUGH TAU 36, AFTER WHICH MODELS DIVERGE IN DIRECTION AND
SPEED, COMMENSURATE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE VORTEX IN EACH MODEL.
BASED ON THE SIGNIFICANT MODEL SPREAD, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST TRACK ONLY THROUGH TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z AND 220900Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20140421 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JACK) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JACK) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 16.7S 93.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 93.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 18.0S 93.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 19.2S 94.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 19.8S 94.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 19.9S 94.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 93.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (JACK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (IR) SHOWS A FLARING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE
THAT IS CURRENTLY OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
HOWEVER, A 1517Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION
HAS STARTED TO SHEAR AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST FROM THE TIGHTLY WRAPPED
LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE LLCC BEING OBSCURED
IN THE IR ANIMATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 65
KNOTS DUE TO THE WEAKENING STRUCTURE SEEN IN THE AMSU IMAGE ALONG
WITH FALLING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS, ALONG WITH ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, SHOWS
A LARGE TROUGH HAS STARTED TO PRESS IN ON THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST,
WHICH HAS STARTED TO PROVIDE A DEGRADING ENVIRONMENT AS VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS NOW ASSESSED AT STRONG (30 TO 40 KNOTS) LEVELS
AND IS OFFSETTING STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC JACK IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD AND QUICKLY WEAKEN AS THE VWS DISSIPATES
THE SYSTEM BELOW 35 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NUMERIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE POLEWARD TRAJECTORY BUT
VARIES WIDELY AFTER TAU 36 DUE TO THE WEAKENED STATE OF THE VORTEX.
DUE TO THE AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 220900Z AND 222100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20140422 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JACK) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JACK) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 17.8S 95.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 95.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 19.0S 96.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 95.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (JACK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) REVEALS A FULLY-EXPOSED, ELONGATED AND RAPIDLY-WEAKENED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). MSI ALSO INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS
INTERACTING WITH AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS TO THE SOUTH AND, AS SHOWN
IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATION, IS LIKELY INFUSING DRY
AIR. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDES SOLID EVIDENCE OF THE RAPID
WEAKENING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. SPECIFICALLY, A 220309Z ASCAT
IMAGE SHOWS ONLY 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE
WHILE A 212324Z WINDSAT IMAGE SHOWED 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT WITH WEAKER WINDS ELSEWHERE. ADDITIONALLY, UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS EMBEDDED IN THE LEADING
EDGE OF A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD AND SLOW AS A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH BUT
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK DUE TO UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS. THIS IS
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 15
FEET.//
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_jack.htm | Updated: 23 April 2014 |