[Index]
Tropical Cyclone KOFI
Southern Hemisphere Summary
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Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone KOFI Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTPS21 PGTW 20140227 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.1S 177.7E TO 19.0S 178.3W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 271800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.1S 178.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.1S
178.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 178.7E, APPROXIMATELY 120 NM EAST
OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A POORLY DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 271718Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A
DEFINED SYSTEM DESPITE THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM
REMAINING FAIRLY BROKEN. THE RADAR LOOP FROM LABASA, FIJI, IS
SHOWING THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM IS ILL DEFINED AS THE
ISLANDS SEEM TO BE DISRUPTING THE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN
AREA OF LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT (30 DEGREES CELSIUS). NUMERICAL MODELS
INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES POLEWARD FROM THE ISLANDS OF FIJI. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
282100Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PHNC 20140228 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 16.1S 179.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 179.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 17.9S 178.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 19.9S 177.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 21.5S 176.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 23.2S 175.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 26.5S 172.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 30.2S 168.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 37.4S 160.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 179.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED AS FORMATIVE
BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT HAS
BECOME BETTER-DEFINED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGHER
END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, NFFN, AND ABRF. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. A MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST HAS
ASSUMED STEERING AND IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT DRIVER OF THE
CYCLONE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. TC 16P WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY,
PEAKING AT 60 KNOTS FROM TAU 72-96 BEFORE ACCELERATING TOWARDS
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND HIGHER VWS. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 10
FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 282100Z AND 010900Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 272100). //
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PHNC 20140228 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 17.6S 178.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 178.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 19.3S 178.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 21.0S 177.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 22.7S 176.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 24.6S 175.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 29.5S 171.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 36.1S 164.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 178.7W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 157 NM
EAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING BROADLY INTO THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 281802Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS A
DEFINED BUT ELONGATED LLCC. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA ALSO REVEALS A
BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS WHILE SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW SLP NEAR 997MB, WHICH CORRESPONDS TO 30 T0 35 KNOT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS
ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM ALL
AGENCIES. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS
IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. TC 16P IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AFTER TAU 36 AS IT BEGINS TO TRACK INTO AN AREA
OF ENHANCED POLEWARD FLOW SITUATED BETWEEN THE STR AND AN
APPROACHING DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. BY TAU 48, TC 16P SHOULD BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE TROUGH AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SST, WHICH WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM RAPIDLY. TC 16P IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96 AS IT
BECOMES FULLY-EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND GAINS FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE
TIGHT GROUPING OF DYNAMIC GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 281800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z AND 012100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20140301 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (KOFI) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (KOFI) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 20.2S 176.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 176.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 21.9S 175.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 23.7S 174.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 25.5S 172.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 27.9S 170.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 33.9S 164.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 176.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (KOFI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 010222Z NOAA-19 MICROWAVE
IMAGE ALSO REVEALS THE BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
EASTERN PERIPHERIES WRAPPED INTO A DEFINED LLCC. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND ABOVE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND NFFN. TC 16P IS TRACKING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED TO THE
EAST. TC KOFI IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AFTER TAU 36 AS IT
BEGINS TO TRACK INTO AN AREA OF ENHANCED POLEWARD FLOW SITUATED
BETWEEN THE STR AND AN APPROACHING DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. BY TAU
48, TC 16P SHOULD BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, WHICH WILL START TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY. TC 16P
IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72 AS IT BECOMES FULLY-EMBEDDED
IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z AND 020900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20140301 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (KOFI) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (KOFI) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 22.3S 175.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.3S 175.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 24.4S 173.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 26.4S 171.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 28.4S 169.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 30.8S 165.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 22.8S 174.9W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (KOFI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS
CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING BROADLY INTO THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 011653Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS A PARTIALLY-
EXPOSED LLCC ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING.
RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM NFTF (21.2S 175.1W), APPROXIMATELY
70 NM NORTH OF THE CENTER, INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED NORTHERLY
WINDS AT 28 KNOTS GUSTING TO 48 KNOTS WITH A MINIMUM SLP NEAR 993
MB. THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM ALL AGENCIES. THE CURRENT POSITION
IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. TC
16P IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) AND IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AFTER TAU 24 AS IT
BEGINS TO TRACK INTO AN AREA OF ENHANCED POLEWARD FLOW SITUATED
BETWEEN THE STR AND AN APPROACHING DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. BY TAU
24, TC 16P SHOULD BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE TROUGH AND BAROCLINIC ZONE. AFTER TAU 36, THE
SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SST,
WHICH WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY. TC 16P IS FORECAST TO
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48 AS IT BECOMES FULLY-EMBEDDED IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE TIGHT GROUPING OF DYNAMIC
GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 020900Z AND 022100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20140302 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (KOFI) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (KOFI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 23.6S 174.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.6S 174.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 24.9S 173.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 27.2S 170.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 29.9S 167.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 33.8S 162.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 23.9S 174.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (KOFI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 517 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION, HOWEVER CONVECTIVE
BANDING IS STILL WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 020210Z NOAA-19 MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO REVEALS A PARTIALLY-
EXPOSED LLCC ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. TC
16P IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE EAST. BY TAU 24, TC 16P SHOULD BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE TROUGH AND BAROCLINIC
ZONE. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WHICH WILL SERVE TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY. TC 16P IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU
48 AS IT BECOMES FULLY-EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND GAINS
FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z AND 030900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20140302 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (KOFI) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (KOFI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 25.4S 172.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.4S 172.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 27.5S 169.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 30.1S 166.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 33.1S 163.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 25.9S 172.0W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (KOFI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 661 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS
A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE WITH A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND OVER
THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
A 021738Z SSMIS 37V IMAGE REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH TIGHTLY-
CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER, THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS, SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS, BASED ON A 020949Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING 45 TO
50 KNOT WINDS. TC 16P IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AS IT BEGINS TO TRACK INTO AN AREA OF ENHANCED POLEWARD
FLOW SITUATED BETWEEN THE STR AND A DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. BY TAU
12, TC 16P SHOULD BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE TROUGH AND BAROCLINIC ZONE. AFTER TAU 24, THE
SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SST,
WHICH WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY. TC 16P IS FORECAST TO
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 36 AS IT BECOMES FULLY-EMBEDDED IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE TIGHT GROUPING OF DYNAMIC
GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 030900Z AND 032100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20140303 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (KOFI) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (KOFI) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 27.6S 169.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.6S 169.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 31.2S 165.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 36.0S 161.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 28.5S 168.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (KOFI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 803 NM
SOUTH OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY DEPICTS CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPED INTO THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 030158Z NOAA-19 MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO
REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPED INTO
THE CENTER; THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC 16P IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE AS IT
BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). BY TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL
ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, WHICH WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY. TC 16P
IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 24 AS IT BECOMES FULLY-EMBEDDED
IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE TIGHT GROUPING OF DYNAMIC
GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PHNC 20140303 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (KOFI) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (KOFI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 30.5S 164.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 28 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.5S 164.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 35.7S 160.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 31.8S 163.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (KOFI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1034 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS ACCELERATED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
28 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS GROSSLY ELONGATED AS THE
CONVECTION BECAME DISPLACED SOUTHEASTWARD, PARTIALLY EXPOSING THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI
ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DEDUCED FROM
A 030843Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC KOFI
HAS DRIFTED WELL SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS INTO AN AREA OF STRONG
(GREATER THAN 30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. FURTHERMORE, A SATELLITE
CROSS-SECTION PRODUCT FROM CIRA INDICATES THE WARM CORE HAS BEEN
REDUCED TO 01 CELSIUS DEGREE. NEAR THE SURFACE, COLD-AIR ADVECTION IS
EVIDENT ON THE MSI LOOP. AT THE SURFACE, ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS. ALL DATA
INDICATE TC 16P IS FAST BECOMING EXTRA-TROPICAL AND WILL BE A COLD
CORE LOW BY TAU 12. CONCURRENTLY, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
TO BELOW JTWC WARNING THRESHOLD. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 18 FEET. //
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_kofi.htm | Updated: 5 March 2014 |