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Tropical Cyclone LUSI
Southern Hemisphere Summary
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Tropical Cyclone LUSI Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTPS21 PGTW 20140309 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.0S 169.0E TO 13.2S 163.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 090600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.4S 167.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.4S
169.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 167.7E, APPROXIMATELY 420NM NORTH
OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE BUILDING OVER THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHILE CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS
STARTED TO FORM IN THE PERIPHERIES. A 090634Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS IMPROVING STRUCTURE AS TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS
BECOME APPARENT IN THE CDO FEATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN
IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (15
TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
REGION ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
AGGRESSIVELY DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM AS IT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO
THE IMPROVING STRUCTURE AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS NOW HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
100900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20140309 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/090851ZMAR2014//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 14.0S 167.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 167.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 14.8S 167.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 15.5S 169.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 16.5S 171.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 20.0S 174.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 25.2S 176.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 30.5S 176.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 33.9S 177.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 167.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 490 NM
NORTH OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED AS
FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE LOOPED CLOCKWISE AND
IS NOW POISED TO DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON THE EIR ANIMATION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TC 18P IS JUST NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD EQUATORWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A LOW LAYER REFLECTION OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH. AFTER TAU 48, A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE SOUTHEAST WILL ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD.
FINALLY, NEAR TAU 96, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE STR AND CAUSE TC 18P TO RECURVE
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. IN THE NEAR- TO
MID-TERM, AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE STR AXIS, VWS WILL RELAX AND
PROMOTE A STEADY INTENSIFICATION - PEAKING AT 70 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN
OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TRACK PHILOSOPHY;
HOWEVER, IN VIEW OF THE DEVELOPING STAGE OF THE CYCLONE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z AND
102100Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A (WTPS21 PGTW
090900). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. //
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20140310 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (LUSI) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (LUSI) WARNING NR 002
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 14.9S 166.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 166.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 15.2S 167.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 15.5S 168.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 16.4S 170.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 17.8S 172.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 22.2S 175.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 27.8S 176.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 33.1S 175.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 166.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (LUSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 433 NM
NORTH OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AS DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE AND
TIGHTLY WRAP INTO THE LLCC. A 100531Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO
SHOWS A DEVELOPING SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY WRAPPED DEEP CONVECTION
ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE AFOREMENTIONED
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45
KNOTS IS BASED UPON THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM SEEN IN THE
MICROWAVE IMAGE ALONG WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF THE SAME
VALUE FROM PGTW AND ABRF. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WHILE SOME POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP. TC 18P IS CURRENTLY LOCATED WITHIN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A BREAK OF TWO NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGES (NER) TO
THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST. TC LUSI IS EXPECTED TO STAY IN THIS
POOR STEERING ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE THE NER
LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST MOVES TO THE WEST AND BEGINS TO ACCELERATE
THE SYSTEM TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND DRIVE TC
17P POLEWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. STEADY
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 72 AS THE FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES PERSIST. AFTER
TAU 72, INCREASING VWS FROM AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND
DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL START A WEAKENING TREND. THESE
FACTORS WILL ALSO INDUCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AT TAU 96 WITH
COMPLETION EXPECTED BY TAU 120. AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
VARIED IN THE TIMING OF THE NER ASSUMING STEERING IN THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND THEREFORE FURTHER SPREAD LATER IN THE
FORECAST, ALTHOUGH, MOST AGREE WITH THE OVERALL PHILOSOPHY. DUE TO
THIS SPREAD, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULT-
MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 100600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z AND 110900Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (HADI) WARNINGS
(WTPS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20140310 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (LUSI) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (LUSI) WARNING NR 003
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 15.3S 166.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 166.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 15.4S 166.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 15.7S 168.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 16.6S 170.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 18.2S 172.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 23.3S 175.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 29.3S 175.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 35.5S 174.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 166.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (LUSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 408 NM
NORTH OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AS DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WRAP
INTO THE LLCC. A 101651Z NOAA-18 MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO REVEALS A
DEVELOPING SYSTEM WITH THE BULK OF DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT TIGHTLY WRAPPED INTO THE CENTER. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45
KNOTS IS BASED ON THE CONGRUENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 18P IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A BREAK OF TWO NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGES (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST. TC LUSI IS
EXPECTED TO STAY IN THIS POOR STEERING ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS BEFORE THE NER LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST MOVES TO THE WEST AND
BEGINS TO ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER
TAU 48, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY TO THE EAST OF
THE SYSTEM AND DRIVE TC 18P POLEWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 72 AS THE
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
PERSIST. AFTER TAU 72, INCREASING VWS FROM AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH AND DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL START A
WEAKENING TREND. THESE FACTORS WILL ALSO INDUCE EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION AT TAU 96 WITH COMPLETION EXPECTED BY TAU 120. AVAILABLE
NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS VARIED IN THE TIMING OF THE NER ASSUMING
STEERING IN THE EARLY TAUS AND FURTHER SPREAD LATER IN THE FORECAST.
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE MOVEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM AND THE
SPREAD AMONG MODEL TRACKS, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS POSITIONED
CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110900Z AND 112100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN)
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 19P (HADI) WARNINGS (WTPS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20140311 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (LUSI) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (LUSI) WARNING NR 004
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 16.4S 168.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 168.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 17.1S 169.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 18.0S 171.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 19.4S 173.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 21.6S 174.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 26.8S 175.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 32.7S 175.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 168.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (LUSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 362 NM
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS INCREASED CURVED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS
MOVING ACROSS THE ISLANDS OF VANUATU. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON THE MSI AND SUPPORTED BY AN 110436Z TRMM 85-GHZ IMAGE, WHICH
SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT IS
CLEARING THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50
KTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM
PGTW AND KNES, AS WELL AS A 102232Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING 50 KNOT WINDS
AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC
18P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG A RIDGE AXIS WITH GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGING TO THE NORTH. RIDGING IS
EXPECTED RE-ORIENT AND BUILD IN TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM BETWEEN
TAUS 36-48 CAUSING A POLEWARD DEFLECTION AND ACCELERATION. AT THE
SAME TIME, VWS IS EXPECTED TO SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE AND BEGIN TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. AS TC 18P TRACKS POLEWARD, IT IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 72 AS IT INTERACTS WITH MID-
LATITUDE BAROCLINICITY, COUPLED WITH DECREASING SSTS. DYNAMICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK PHILOSOPHY, WITH
SOME VARIATION IN SPEED OF MOTION. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE PRIOR JTWC FORECAST AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z AND
120900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (HADI)
WARNINGS (WTPS33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20140311 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (LUSI) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (LUSI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 17.0S 169.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 169.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 18.0S 171.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 19.4S 173.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 21.6S 174.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 24.1S 174.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 30.4S 173.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 170.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (LUSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 491 NM
WEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH SPIRAL
BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). AN 111640Z NOAA-18 MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO REVEALS TIGHTLY-
CURVED BANDING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO THE
LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION AND ABOVE
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55
KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ADDITIONALLY, THE
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND IMPROVED EQUATORWARD CHANNEL, AS EVIDENT
IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, ALLOWS TC 18P TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT
36 HOURS, LEADING TO A PEAK OF 75 KNOTS BY TAU 36. TC 18P IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGING TO THE NORTH. RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
REORIENT AND BUILD IN TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM BETWEEN TAUS 24 TO
36 CAUSING A POLEWARD DEFLECTION AND ACCELERATION. BY TAU 48, TC 18P
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT INTERACTS
WITH MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE, COUPLED WITH DECREASING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VWS. TC 18P IS EXPECTED TO
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SOME VARIATION IN SPEED OF MOTION, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z AND 122100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20140312 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (LUSI) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (LUSI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 18.8S 171.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S 171.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 20.9S 172.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 23.3S 173.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 25.8S 173.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 28.6S 173.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 171.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (LUSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM WEST
OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
RAGGED EYE. THIS IMPROVED STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT IN A 120341Z TRMM
IMAGE, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON A KNES DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF 65 KNOTS, AND IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 18P IS TURNING
POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
STEERING RIDGE AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC
18P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS BY TAU
12 BUT SHOULD THEN WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND COOLER SST. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 24 AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE, AND IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOMES EMBEDDED IN STRONG WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 122100Z AND 130900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20140312 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (LUSI) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (LUSI) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 20.6S 173.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S 173.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 23.2S 173.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 25.8S 173.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 28.5S 173.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 31.5S 172.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 173.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (LUSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 418 NM EAST
OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A 15-NM EYE AS CONVECTIVE BANDS
FURTHER DEEPENED AND WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE EYE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AGENCY DVORAK FIXES OF 65
KNOTS TO THE REFLECT THE IMPROVED STATE OF THE TC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDERNEATH A POINT SOURCE, AN AREA
OF GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) VALUES,
CURRENTLY AT 20-25 KNOTS, ARE BEGINNING TO RISE AS THE CYCLONE MOVES
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE RIDGE AXIS. TC 18P IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) EXTENSION TO THE
EAST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AND DRIVE
THE SYSTEM ON A MORE SOUTHWARD DIRECTION. EVEN AS THE VWS IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE, THE ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW - WHICH IS A RESULT OF THE
INCREASED UPPER LEVEL WINDS - WILL SUSTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY FOR
AT LEAST 12 HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. TC LUSI WILL COMMENCE
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 12 AS IT DRIFTS INTO THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE, BECOMING A COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 48. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z AND 132100Z. //
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20140313 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (LUSI) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (LUSI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 23.4S 173.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4S 173.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 26.5S 173.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 29.4S 173.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 32.3S 172.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 24.2S 173.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (LUSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 406 NM
SOUTHWESTWARD OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 17 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS THAT TC 18P HAS STARTED TO WEAKEN AS THE DEEP CONVECTION
HAS BECOME DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH WHILE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) HAS REMAINED TIGHTLY WRAPPED AND FAIRLY WELL DEFINED.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED UPON THE WEAKENING
STRUCTURE SEEN IN THE MSI ALONG WITH FALLING DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS
AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AS STRONG (30 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS STARTING TO COMPLETELY OFFSET THE VIGOROUS POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, WHICH CAN BE SEEN IN THE ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP. TC 18P
HAS STARTED TO ACCELERATE POLEWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. TC LUSI IS
EXPECTED TO FURTHER TRACK SOUTH ALONG THE STR THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE UNFAVORABLE AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ADDITIONALLY
BECOME UNFAVORABLE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD LEADING TO FURTHER
WEAKENING. TC 17P IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION IN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE VWS FURTHER INCREASES FROM THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES, WITH COMPLETION EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. NUMERIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT LEADING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
130600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z AND 140900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20140313 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (LUSI) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (LUSI) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 26.7S 173.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.7S 173.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 29.5S 172.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 27.4S 173.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (LUSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 476 NM
SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS GROSSLY ELONGATED AS THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) BECAME EXPOSED AND THE CONVECTION
SIGNIFICANTLY SHEARED SOUTHWARD OF THE LLCC. COLD DRY AIR INTRUSION
IS ALSO EVIDENT ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK - AN INDICATION OF IMMERSION
INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE
ANIMATION AND ON RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE PASSES WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK
ESTIMATE FROM PGTW TO REFLECT THE DELAYED WEAKENING TYPICAL OF
EXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 18P IS NOW
EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES IN AN AREA OF HIGH (40-50
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DATA, INCLUDING A 131000Z
AMSU-B RADIAL/HEIGHT CROSS SECTION FROM CIRA, INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS
NOW A BONA FIDE COLD-CORE LOW. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. //
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_lusi.htm | Updated: 18 March 2014 |