Topic: NSW/SE QLD Storms 10-11 Sep 2007: First severe storms of spring?

[Steven]

Small cell near Grafton although as fast as it formed has now almost dissipated and quickly moved out to sea as Jimmy suggested would happen, but it now concerns me there has been no development so far, but lets keep playing the waiting game.

[Michael Bath]

Quite a decent cell off the Clarence Coast now.

Today has reminded me of 10th October 2003 where cells struggled for moisture but were visually quite impressive - but low topped - isolated cells.

Some congestus locally to my west that has a very moisture starved appearance.

[Steven]

Well I'm going to write it off for now, it won't be until late until something might happen, but until then, its fine weather.
The obvious lack of moisture is the reason nothing is happening.

[Steven]

Ok now, things are beginning to kick off, the Warrego radar is showing some development to the north east, however a bit early to tell yet considering things have just started, but its a sign of the storms approaching close along with the trough. Since the lack of moisture, we could end up with a storm like the 29 November, 2006 one, high topped, dry and very lightning active.

[Steven]

Anyway, our chances are looking bleaker by the minute, nothing has happened and the upper trough has almost moved through, but I won't rule out any development out to sea though, might even see some lightning, but in general we might as well forget about it. How disappointing.


Update: In the last 20 minutes, Brisbane south suburbs are experiencing from small yet some intense thunderstorms, that are popping up very quickly, with large rain and small hail, no lightning sighted however, but with the trough closing in, we have to determine how fast these storms develop, IMO things are likely to stay this way.

[Datazoid]

http://sinkcat.data-zoid.com/virga_1200.jpg

Panorama from my roof. Not the best panorama ever, it was hand-held and I can't be bothered fixing it up properly.

[mitch]

Coming home from school today in southern Sydney, I saw a few cells off the coast way to the north east. One looked quite impressive with a highly pronounced back sheared anvil. When I got home I looked at the newcastle radar and there was hardly anything.

[Jimmy Deguara]

Mitch,

There was a cell that was reasonable but I think you will find high based. This means the top part is very impressive looking but precipitation cannot seem to last long enough. So your observations were pretty accurate.

All this talk about supercells on the other forum - I never did buy that. The wind profile even off the coast and mismatch of the trough axis made the storms even off the coast relatively disappointing.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

[Steven]

Well now who has their heart broken, nah just kidding. This is the unfortunate price you pay for having high hopes about things. But anyway I'd now beleive you more than I ever did before, but since stuff on the "other" forum (which shall remain unnamed) theres quite a bit of wishful thinking going on.

Not having very advanced skill and knowledge of thunderstorms, their formation and such, it always pays to listen to someone who knows what they are talking about, otherwise you'll get "theres still a chance" business, which is really confusing, and frustrating in the end, ah well better luck next time.

 

[Michael Bath]

The cells (showers in many cases) that passed over the greater Brisbane area during the evening were quite small and had very little lightning. I did not spot a single lightning flash despite a clear view in that direction from here. Lightning tracker showed none apart from one small brief storm east of Warwick.

There was quite a bit of lightning east of here from 10 to 11pm but it was not close to the coast.

The two storms that moved east off the coast from the Grafton area were the highlight from this system in this region.

--->  Grafton radar loop



MB

[Jimmy Deguara]

Steven,

Without deviating from topic, if you are not willing to accept the inevitable and only wishful thinking, then that is what will come out of the forecast. I am not saying anyone was wrong just people hoping things will happen will eventually fall down the mindful thoughts of it happening. We need not comment any further on this.

Back on track, being so cold aloft I would not be surprised that perhaps pea sized hail occurred? Is this what you heard of?

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

[Steven]

Jimmy, Michael,

All I want is a good DECENT summer storm! I bet everybody does.

I am not pointing the blame at anybody, but yes there were a few willing to hold on, when there was no point, it was a terrible disappointment, and we were all wrong, not that theres anything wrong with that of course. But if you notice I am always cautious of these events, not trying to maintain such a high hope, always works the opposite, but last night I really did, but oh well.

Last night, a few small but intense cells developed in isolated places, a couple south of Brisbane, they were brief, short and sharp with their characteristics, both storms in Brisbane contained small hail and large drops of rain, but these dissipated in about 10 minutes, no lightning was observed in these storms. Although a storm last night around the hinterland did have some lightning, I didn't get a sighting.

With the extremely cold air above, quickly developing storms would have produced hail in no time, any that did fall melted quickly in the warm atmosphere.