Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone 200204 : JTWC Advisories |
Season 2001-2002 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
---> Tropical Cyclone 200204 Track Map and Data |
WTXS22 PGTW 20011121 03:00z REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210021Z NOV 01// AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 210030)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.2S3 81.9E8 TO 13.5S9 86.4E8 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 210130Z7 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.3S5 83.1E2. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.0S3 82.2E2, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.3S5 83.1E2, APPROXIMATELY 675 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 200MB AND UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND IS IN A REGION OF FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 220300Z7. 4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT LOCATED NEAR 6.7S3 130.3E7// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20011121 09:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 210600Z9 --- NEAR 12.1S4 83.1E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S4 83.1E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z2 --- 12.9S2 82.9E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z0 --- 13.5S9 82.1E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z3 --- 14.1S6 81.1E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z1 --- 14.9S4 79.8E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 210900Z2 POSITION NEAR 12.3S6 83.1E2. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S HAS DEVELOPED SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA OVER THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 210530Z1 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK IN BEHIND AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH BY MID PERIOD WHICH SHOULD TURN TC 04S TO THE WEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AVAILABLE NWP (NOGAPS, AVN, AND THE UKMET GLOBAL) ALL AGREE WITH A CUT-OFF DEVELOPING AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD PREVENT TC 04S FROM EMBEDDING IN THE NORTHEASTERLIES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND TRACKING SOUTHEAST. THE CUT-OFF SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE TC 04S AND FILL. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z9 IS 10 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 210251Z NOV 01 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 210300). NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z6 AND 220900Z3. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (NO NAME) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20011121 21:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 211800Z2 --- NEAR 13.2S6 83.3E4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S6 83.3E4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z0 --- 13.7S1 83.1E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z3 --- 14.3S8 81.3E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z1 --- 15.0S6 79.3E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z4 --- 15.5S1 77.0E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 212100Z6 POSITION NEAR 13.3S7 83.2E3. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S, LOCATED 727 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 211730Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK IN BEHIND AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH BY MID PERIOD WHICH SHOULD TURN TC 04S TO THE WEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS (NOGAPS, AVN, AND THE UKMET GLOBAL) ALL AGREE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD AND PREVENTING TC 04S FROM EMBEDDING IN THE NORTHEASTERLIES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND TRACKING SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE LOW LEVEL TRACKS WEST, SHEARED FROM THE UPPER LEVEL CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z2 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z3 AND 222100Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE- HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20011122 09:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220600Z0 --- NEAR 12.0S3 83.3E4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S3 83.3E4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z3 --- 12.8S1 82.2E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z1 --- 13.7S1 81.0E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z4 --- 14.4S9 79.1E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z2 --- 15.1S7 77.2E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z3 --- 15.6S2 73.4E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 220900Z3 POSITION NEAR 12.2S5 83.0E1. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S, LOCATED 700 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SLOWLY SOUTH-SOTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 220530Z2 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND A RECENT SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS, AND A 35-KNOT WIND REPORT ON THE 220058Z7 QUIKSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. TC 04S HAS BEGUN TO SLOWLY TURN WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS (NOGAPS, AVN, UKMET GLOBAL, AND GFDN) ALL AGREE WITH A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, BUT COULD INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY DUE TO DECREASING SHEAR AFTER 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z0 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z7 AND 230900Z4.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20011122 21:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 221800Z3 --- NEAR 12.5S8 81.9E8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S8 81.9E8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z1 --- 12.8S1 80.5E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z4 --- 13.2S6 79.1E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z2 --- 13.3S7 77.8E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z5 --- 13.4S8 76.4E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: 222100Z7 POSITION NEAR 12.6S9 81.5E4. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S, LOCATED 630 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 221730Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. TC 04S IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS (NOGAPS, AVN, AND UKMET GLOBAL) ALL AGREE WITH A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z3 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z4 AND 232100Z8.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20011123 09:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230600Z1 --- NEAR 12.8S1 80.1E9 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S1 80.1E9 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z4 --- 13.0S4 78.2E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z2 --- 13.3S7 76.1E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z5 --- 13.5S9 73.9E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z3 --- 13.9S3 71.6E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 230900Z4 POSITION NEAR 12.8S1 79.6E2. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S, LOCATED 560 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 230530Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. TC 04S IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS (NOGAPS, AVN, AND UKMET GLOBAL) ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A PREDOMINANT WEST TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH THE 24 HOUR FORECAST THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z1 IS 12 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
Document: tropical_cyclone_200204_jtwc_advisories.htm
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