Updated: 17 June 2020
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WTXS21 PGTW 20011127 03:00z
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260321Z NOV 27//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 260321)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.7S4 94.8E1 TO 11.1S3 90.3E2
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 270000Z9 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 8.1S9 94.1E4. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE DISTURBANCE PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.4S2 95.5E9 IS NOW LOCATED
NEAR 8.1S9 94.1E4, APPROXIMATELY 295 NM NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS
ISLANDS. ANIMATED INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION IN THE AREA. A RECENT TROPICAL RAINFALL
MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) PASS DEPICTS THE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED
SOUTHWEST OF A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE 200 MB
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE REGION IS EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN A
REGION OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS GOOD. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
280330Z3.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20011127 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z5 --- NEAR 8.2S0 93.4E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.2S0 93.4E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 8.8S6 92.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 9.7S6 91.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 10.8S9 91.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 12.0S3 90.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
270900Z8 POSITION NEAR 8.4S2 93.2E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S HAS DEVELOPED 320 NM NORTHWEST OF COCOS
ISLAND, OVER THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. TC 05S HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
270530Z7 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. A MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN EAST OF THE
SYSTEM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WHICH WILL TRACK TC 05S TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THE AVAILABLE AIDS OF NOGAPS, THE UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR),
BETA ADVECTION MODELS, AND CLIMATOLOGY ARE ALL IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. CLIMATOLOGY MODELS HAVE A WESTWARD
BIAS, WHILE EGRR DEPICTS THE MOST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN
AVERAGE SIZE SYSTEM AND A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z5 IS 12 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 270321Z NOV 01 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 270300) NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z2
AND 280900Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20011127 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BESSI) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z8 --- NEAR 8.3S1 93.0E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.3S1 93.0E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 9.1S0 92.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 10.1S2 91.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 10.9S0 90.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 11.6S8 90.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
272100Z2 POSITION NEAR 8.5S3 92.8E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BESSI) IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 8.3S1
93.0E2, OVER THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM NORTHWEST
OF COCOS ISLANDS, AND HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 5 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 271730Z0 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. A MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
SYSTEM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WHICH WILL TRACK TC 05S WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD. THE AVAILABLE AIDS OF NOGAPS, THE UKMET GLOBAL
(EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND RADII ARE BASED ON
CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZE SYSTEM AND A RECENT INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGE ANALYSIS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
271800Z8 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z9 AND 282100Z3.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20011128 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BESSI) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z6 --- NEAR 9.4S3 91.6E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.4S3 91.6E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 10.4S5 90.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 11.3S5 90.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 12.3S6 88.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z9 --- 13.3S7 87.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280900Z9 POSITION NEAR 9.7S6 91.4E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BESSI) IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS
ISLANDS, AND HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS DURING THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 280530Z8 INFRARED AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. A MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
SYSTEM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WHICH WILL TRACK TC 05S WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD. THE AVAILABLE AIDS OF NOGAPS, THE UKMET GLOBAL
(EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND RADII ARE BASED ON
CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZE SYSTEM AND A RECENT INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGE ANALYSIS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
280600Z6 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z3 AND 290900Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20011128 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BESSI) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z9 --- NEAR 10.8S9 91.4E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.8S9 91.4E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 12.0S3 90.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 12.7S0 90.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z9 --- 13.5S9 88.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z2 --- 14.0S5 87.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
282100Z3 POSITION NEAR 11.1S3 91.3E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BESSI) IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS
ISLANDS, AND HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 281730Z1 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55
KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM AND SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL SHEAR OF CONVECTION. TC 05S HAS
TRACKED SOUTHWARD DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS IN A WEAKNESS CREATED BY
THE PASSAGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND TRACK TC 05S SOUTHWESTWARD. THE AVAILABLE AIDS OF NOGAPS,
THE UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. BASED ON CURRENT TRACK
FORECAST, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARDS A REGION OF WEAKER
SHEAR IN 12 TO 24 HOURS MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER,
BASED ON THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPS
ALONG THE TRACK, A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST. WIND RADII ARE
BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z9 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
290900Z0 AND 292100Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20011129 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BESSI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z7 --- NEAR 11.7S9 92.0E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.7S9 92.0E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 13.3S7 91.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z9 --- 14.7S2 90.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z2 --- 15.5S1 89.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 16.2S9 87.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
290900Z0 POSITION NEAR 12.1S4 91.9E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BESSI) IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, APPROXIMATELY 285 NM WEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, AND
HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 290530Z9 INFRARED AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED EQUATORWARD FROM THE
VORTEX CENTER. TC 05S HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE
PAST 12 HOURS IN A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LATITUDE RIDGE. A MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM LATER
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD CAUSING TC 05S TO TURN GRADUALLY
SOUTHWESTWARD. THE AVAILABLE AIDS OF NOGAPS, THE UKMET GLOBAL
(EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) AGREE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SCENARIO. TC 05S WILL BEGIN TO ENTER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ALONG ITS TRACK, RESULTING IN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. WIND RADII ARE
BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z7 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
292100Z4 AND 300900Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20011129 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BESSI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z0 --- NEAR 13.7S1 91.3E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S1 91.3E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z9 --- 14.6S1 91.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z2 --- 15.2S8 90.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 15.9S5 89.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 16.4S1 87.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
292100Z4 POSITION NEAR 13.9S3 91.2E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BESSI) IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, APPROXIMATELY 340 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF COCOS
ISLANDS, AND HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 291730Z2 INFRARED
IMAGERY AND A 291527Z6 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE SENSOR IMAGER PASS.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES
THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED WEST OF THE VORTEX CENTER.
TC 05S CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO A SMALL WEAKNESS
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO BUILD IN SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM BY THE FORECAST MID-PERIOD CAUSING
TC 05S TO TURN INCREASINGLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THE AVAILABLE AIDS
OF NOGAPS, THE UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SOLUTION. TC 05S WILL BEGIN TO ENTER COOLER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG ITS TRACK, RESULTING IN A SLOW
WEAKENING TREND. WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE
SIZED SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z0 IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z2 AND 302100Z6.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20011130 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BESSI) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z9 --- NEAR 14.4S9 88.4E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S9 88.4E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z2 --- 14.9S4 87.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 15.3S9 85.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 15.3S9 84.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 15.3S9 83.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300900Z2 POSITION NEAR 14.5S0 88.0E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BESSI-BAKO) IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, APPROXIMATELY 510 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF COCOS
ISLANDS, AND HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 300530Z1 INFRARED AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND SYNOPTIC REPORTS OF 45
KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THE CONVECTION HAS CYCLED
AND HAS INCREASED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS NOW UNDER
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. TC 05S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS AND WILL GUIDE THE SYSTEM TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE AIDS OF
NOGAPS, THE UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SOLUTION. TC 05S WILL REMAIN IN MARGINALLY WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS IT CONTINUES ITS TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z9 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
302100Z6 AND 010900Z0.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20011130 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BESSI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z2 --- NEAR 14.7S2 86.8E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S2 86.8E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 15.0S6 85.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 15.3S9 83.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 15.6S2 82.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 15.9S5 82.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
302100Z6 POSITION NEAR 14.8S3 86.4E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BESSI-BAKO) IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, APPROXIMATELY 610 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF COCOS
ISLANDS, AND HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 301730Z4 SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND
ORGANIZATION OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS NOW UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
TC 05S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS AND WILL GUIDE THE SYSTEM TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST. THE AVAILABLE AIDS OF NOGAPS, THE UKMET GLOBAL
(EGRR), GEOPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMICS NAVY (GFDN), AND NCEP AVIATION
(AVN) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SOLUTION. TC 05S WILL REMAIN
IN MARGINALLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS IT CONTINUES ITS
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z2 IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z0 AND 012100Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20011201 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BESSI-BAKO) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z7 --- NEAR 14.8S3 85.9E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S3 85.9E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 14.9S4 85.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 15.2S8 84.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 15.6S2 84.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 16.3S0 83.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010900Z0 POSITION NEAR 14.8S3 85.8E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BESSI-BAKO) IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, APPROXIMATELY 760 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF COCOS
ISLANDS, AND HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 010530Z9 SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. A RECENT SPECIAL SENSOR
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN ESTIMATED 40 NM RAGGED EYE FEATURE.
THE SYSTEM IS NOW UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF
WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 05S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS AND WILL GUIDE THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE AVAILABLE
AIDS OF NOGAPS, THE UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), GEOPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMICS
NAVY (GFDN), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SOLUTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z4 AND 020900Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20011201 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BESSI-BAKO) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z0 --- NEAR 15.4S0 85.5E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S0 85.5E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 15.8S4 85.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 16.4S1 84.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 16.8S5 84.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 17.3S1 83.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
012100Z4 POSITION NEAR 15.5S1 85.5E8
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BESSI-BAKO) IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, APPROXIMATELY 760 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF COCOS
ISLANDS, AND HAS BEEN DRIFTING SOUTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS DURING THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 011730Z2 SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. A RECENT SPECIAL SENSOR
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A BANDING EYE FEATURE. THE SYSTEM IS NOW
UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF FAVORABLE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. TC 05S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS AND WILL GUIDE THE
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE AVAILABLE AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
THE UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SOLUTION. GEOPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMICS NAVY (GFDN)
MODEL IS AN OUTLIER TRACKING THE SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
MODELS AND THE MEDIUM BETA ADVECTION MODEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 011800Z0 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z1 AND
022100Z5.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20011202 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BESSI-BAKO) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z8 --- NEAR 16.1S8 85.2E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S8 85.2E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 17.0S8 85.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 17.9S7 84.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 18.8S7 84.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 19.7S7 85.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020900Z1 POSITION NEAR 16.3S0 85.2E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BESSI-BAKO) IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, APPROXIMATELY 770 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF COCOS
ISLANDS, AND HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 020530Z0 SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A 40 NM BANDING EYE FEATURE. THE SYSTEM IS NOW UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 05S WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE AVAILABLE
AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, THE UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AND NCEP
AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT. EGRR TRACKS THE SYSTEM TO THE
WEST WHILE AVN TRACKS THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST. OUR FORECAST
TRACK IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NGPS, THE MEDIUM BETA ADVECTION MODEL,
CLIPPER, AND EARLIER GFDN MODEL RUNS, WHICH TRACK TC 05S INTO A MID
LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z8 IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z5 AND 030900Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20011202 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BESSI-BAKO) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z1 --- NEAR 17.2S0 85.9E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S0 85.9E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 18.2S1 86.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 18.9S8 87.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 19.6S6 87.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 20.4S6 88.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
022100Z5 POSITION NEAR 17.5S3 86.0E4
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BESSI-BAKO) IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, APPROXIMATELY 700 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF COCOS
ISLANDS, AND HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 021730Z3 SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RAGGED EYE FEATURE WITH APPROXIMATELY 20 NM DIAMETER. THE
SYSTEM IS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH A FAVORABLE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TC 05S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE
AVAILABLE AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS (NGPS), THE UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR),
GEOPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMICS NAVY (GFDN) AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN)
MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT. NGPS AND AVN TRACK THE SYSTEM TO THE
WEST THEN SOUTH. JTWC ATTRIBUTES THIS TO EXCESSIVE INTERACTION WITH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. EGRR AND GFDN
TRACK THE SYSTEM GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUR
FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON A BLEND OF GFDN, EGRR, PERSISTENCE, AND
BETA ADVECTION MODELS. TC 05S SHOULD WEAKEN SLOWLY DURING THE PERIOD
AS IT TRACKS UNDERNEATH UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES AND UNFAVORABLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z1 IS
15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z2 AND 032100Z6.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20011203 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BESSI-BAKO) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z9 --- NEAR 17.7S5 86.0E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S5 86.0E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 18.3S2 86.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 19.0S0 87.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 19.8S8 87.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 20.6S8 88.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030900Z2 POSITION NEAR 17.8S6 86.1E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BESSI-BAKO) IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, APPROXIMATELY 700 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF COCOS
ISLANDS, AND HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 030530Z1 SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH A FAVORABLE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TC 05S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A MID- LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. THE AVAILABLE AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS (NGPS), THE
UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), GEOPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMICS NAVY (GFDN) AND NCEP
AVIATION (AVN) MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT. NGPS, AVN, AND EGRR
TRACK THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST THEN SOUTH. JTWC ATTRIBUTES THIS TO
EXCESSIVE INTERACTION WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST OF
THE SYSTEM. GFDN TRACKS THE SYSTEM GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. OUR FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON A BLEND OF GFDN,
PERSISTENCE, AND FIELD ANALYSIS. TC 05S SHOULD WEAKEN SLOWLY DURING
THE PERIOD AS IT TRACKS UNDERNEATH UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES AND
UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
030600Z9 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z6 AND 040900Z3.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20011203 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BESSI) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z2 --- NEAR 18.6S5 86.5E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S5 86.5E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 19.4S4 86.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 20.4S6 86.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 21.6S9 85.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 22.7S1 85.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
032100Z6 POSITION NEAR 18.8S7 86.5E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BESSI-BAKO) IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, APPROXIMATELY 710 NM SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS,
AND HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 031730Z4 SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 55 TO 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICT A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS POLEWARD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND NOW
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 05S WILL
TRACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND THEN MORE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE AVAILABLE AIDS CONSISTING
OF NOGAPS (NGPS), THE UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), GEOPHYSICAL FLUID
DYNAMICS NAVY (GFDN), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) FALL INTO TWO
CLUSTERS. NGPS AND AVN TRACK THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST THEN SOUTH DUE
TO EXCESSIVE SHEARING. GFDN AND EGRR DO NOT INDICATE THE SAME DEGREE
OF SHEARING AND AS A RESULT TRACK THE SYSTEM MORE SOUTHWARD. OUR
FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON A BLEND OF MODELS, THE BETA ADVECTION
MODELS, AND PERSISTENCE. TC 05S SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS
IT TRACKS UNDERNEATH UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES AND UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z2 IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z3 AND 042100Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20011204 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BESSI) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z0 --- NEAR 18.1S0 86.6E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S0 86.6E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 18.7S6 86.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 19.7S7 85.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 20.9S1 85.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
040900Z3 POSITION NEAR 18.3S2 86.5E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BESSI-BAKO) IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, APPROXIMATELY 700 NM SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS,
AND HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY DURING THE PAST TWELVE HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 040530Z2 SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 TO
55 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A
FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND THE EFFECTS OF STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 05S IS
BENEATH UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. TC 05S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS (NGPS), THE UKMET OFFICE
GLOBAL (EGRR), GEOPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMICS NAVY (GFDN), AND NCEP
AVIATION (AVN) MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR
FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON A BLEND OF MODELS, THE SHALLOW BETA
ADVECTION MODEL, AND PERSISTENCE. TC 05S SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AS IT TRACKS INTO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA
SURFACE CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z0 IS
18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z7 AND 050900Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20011204 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BESSI) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z3 --- NEAR 18.1S0 86.2E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S0 86.2E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 18.5S4 85.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 18.9S8 85.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
042100Z7 POSITION NEAR 18.2S1 86.1E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BESSI-BAKO) IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, APPROXIMATELY 720 NM SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS,
AND HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY DURING THE PAST TWELVE HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 041730Z5 SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 TO
35 KNOTS. TC 05S SHOULD DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE BY 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z3
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20011205 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BESSI) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z1 --- NEAR 18.2S1 86.0E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S1 86.0E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 18.5S4 85.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
050900Z4 POSITION NEAR 18.3S2 86.0E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BESSI-BAKO), LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH
INDIAN OCEAN APPROXIMATELY 750 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS
ISLANDS, HAS DRIFTED SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST TWELVE
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 050530Z3 VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. TC 05S SHOULD
DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE SOUTH. TC 05S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE OVER WATER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z1
IS 12 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_bessi-bako_jtwc_advisories.htm
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