Updated: 17 June 2020
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WTXS22 PGTW 20020303 02:30z
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.8S3 121.5E9 TO 17.8S6
119.7E8 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 022330Z0 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 15.2S8 121.4E8. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT
04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.7S1 121.5E9 IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 15.2S8 121.4E8, ABOUT 345 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST PORT
HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED
DEEP CONVECTION AND IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. A
022144Z3 QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES INCREASED CONSOLIDATION AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CONVECTION IS IN A REGION OF WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH STRONG DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENHANCING THE OUTFLOW. THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
040230Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20020203 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (CHRIS) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z9 --- NEAR 15.7S3 121.3E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S3 121.3E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 16.8S5 120.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 17.6S4 120.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 18.5S4 119.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 19.5S5 118.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030900Z2 POSITION NEAR 16.0S7 121.2E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (CHRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. TC 13S HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 030530Z1 VISIBLE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE AND INTENSIFY. TC 13S IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK SOUTHWEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES
UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSIST
OF THE UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR), NOGAPS, AVIATION (AVN), AND BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY TCLAPS AND TLAPS MODELS. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF DYNAMIC MODELS AND BAROTROPIC ADVECTION
MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z9 IS 15 FEET. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 030221Z FEB 02
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 030230). NEXT WARNINGS
AT 032100Z6 AND 040900Z3. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20020203 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (CHRIS) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z2 --- NEAR 16.3S0 120.8E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S0 120.8E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 17.0S8 120.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 17.6S4 120.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 18.5S4 119.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 19.6S6 118.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
032100Z6 POSITION NEAR 16.5S2 120.7E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (CHRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM
NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
031730Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION AND IMPROVED
BANDING FEATURES. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE DIVERGENCE
ALOFT AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM RESIDES NEAR THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. TC 12S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD GUIDED BY THE PERIPHERY
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 13S SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
INTENSIFY, BUT LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR
SHOULD ARREST FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
CONSISTING OF THE UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR), NOGAPS, GFDN, AVIATION
(AVN), AND BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TCLAPS AND TLAPS MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL
THE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z2 IS
14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z3 AND 042100Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20020204 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (CHRIS) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z0 --- NEAR 17.1S9 121.0E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S9 121.0E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 17.8S6 120.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 18.7S6 120.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 19.7S7 120.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 20.4S6 120.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
040900Z3 POSITION NEAR 17.3S1 121.0E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (CHRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM NORTHWEST
OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 040530Z2 VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES SMALL RAGGED EYE AND BANDING FEATURE FORMING IN
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS. TC 13S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD GUIDED BY THE PERIPHERAL
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 13S SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
INTENSIFY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
CONSISTING OF THE UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR), NOGAPS, GFDN, AND AVIATION
(AVN) ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE
AND A BLEND OF ALL THE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 040600Z0 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z7 AND
050900Z4. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20020204 21:00z COR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (CHRIS) WARNING NR 004A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z3 --- NEAR 18.2S1 120.4E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S1 120.4E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 19.3S3 120.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 20.6S8 119.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 21.7S0 119.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 23.2S7 119.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
042100Z7 POSITION NEAR 18.5S4 120.3E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (CHRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM NORTHEAST
OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
041730Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE BROOME RADAR DEPICT A 17 NM
IRREGULAR EYE AND A DEVELOPING SYSTEM. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICT GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT UNDER THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
TC 13S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD GUIDED BY THE PERIPHERAL MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
EAST. TC 13S SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF THE UK MET GLOBAL
(EGRR), NOGAPS, GFDN, AND AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL THE DYNAMIC
MODELS. THIS WARNING HAS BEEN CORRECTED TO CORRECT A TYPOGRAPHICAL
ERROR ON THE PRESENT POSITION WITHIN THE REMARKS SECTION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z3 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
050900Z4 AND 052100Z8. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20020205 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (CHRIS) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z1 --- NEAR 18.7S6 120.1E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S6 120.1E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 19.4S4 119.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 20.2S4 119.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 21.2S5 118.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 22.2S6 118.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
050900Z4 POSITION NEAR 18.9S8 120.0E3
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (CHRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 050530Z3 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND THE BROOME RADAR DEPICT A 22 NM IRREGULAR EYE FEATURE. A RECENT
SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGE (SSM/I) PASS DEPICTED CONVECTIVE
BANDING EXTENDING WELL SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE 200 MB
ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS
UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC
13S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE PERIPHERAL MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC
13S SHOULD MAINTAIN INTENSITY EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS CONDITIONS
REMAIN FAVORABLE, BUT SHOULD WEAKEN LATER AS IT INTERACTS WITH LAND.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF THE UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR),
NOGAPS, GFDN, TCLAPS, AND TLAPS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL THE DYNAMIC
MODELS TO ACCOUNT FOR COMPENSATING ERRORS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 050600Z1 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z8 AND
060900Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20020205 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (CHRIS) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z4 --- NEAR 19.8S8 120.1E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S8 120.1E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 20.7S9 119.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 21.5S8 119.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 22.3S7 118.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 23.1S6 117.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
052100Z8 POSITION NEAR 20.0S2 120.1E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (CHRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
051730Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT SHOWS A SMALL IRREGULAR
EYE. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 127 KNOTS. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC 13S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 13S SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT INTERACTS WITH
THE GREAT SANDY DESERT IN NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS CONSISTING OF THE UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR), NOGAPS, AND TLAPS ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TRACK OVER LAND. GFDN
REMAINS THE SOLE OUTLIER INDICATING A STRONGER SYSTEM OVER LAND
THAN ANTICIPATED. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND
OF ALL THE DYNAMIC MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z4 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
060900Z5 AND 062100Z9. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20020206 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (CHRIS) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z2 --- NEAR 21.2S5 119.7E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2S5 119.7E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 22.1S5 119.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 22.8S2 117.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 23.6S1 116.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 24.3S9 115.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
060900Z5 POSITION NEAR 21.4S7 119.5E6
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (CHRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 08 NM
SOUTHWEST OF MARBLE BAR, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 060530Z4 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT
RANGE FROM 80 TO 115 KNOTS. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC 13S SHOULD CONTINUE WEAKENING
AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE GREAT SANDY DESERT IN NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT BECOMES A MORE
SHALLOW STORM AND THE LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
CONSISTING OF THE UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR), NOGAPS, TCLAPS, AND TLAPS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A SOUTHWEST TRACK OVER LAND. GFDN REMAINS
THE SOLE OUTLIER INDICATING A STRONGER SYSTEM OVER LAND THAN
ANTICIPATED. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE
DYNAMIC MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 060600Z2 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z9 AND
070900Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20020206 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (CHRIS) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z5 --- NEAR 23.4S9 119.4E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4S9 119.4E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 24.9S5 118.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 25.9S6 117.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
062100Z9 POSITION NEAR 23.8S3 119.2E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (CHRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 10 NM
SOUTH OF NEWMAN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 061730Z7
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. THE 200 MB
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING MODERATE VERTICAL
SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS. TC 13S WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN OVER THE GREAT SANDY DESERT IN NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD GUIDED BY THE
LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY
WEAKENS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSIST OF THE UK MET GLOBAL
(EGRR), GFDN, NOGAPS, TCLAPS, AND TLAPS MODELS. ALL AGREE WITH A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TRACK OVER LAND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN, THE SOLE
OUTLIER INDICATING A FORECASTED STRONGER SYSTEM. OUR FORECAST IS
BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL THE DYNAMIC MODELS. THIS IS
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_chris_jtwc_advisories.htm
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