WTPS21 PGTW 20020211 04:30z
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.0S0 156.0E2 TO 23.8S3
156.9E1 WITHIN THE NEXT 03 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
METSAT IMAGERY AT 110230Z7 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 19.3S3 156.1E3. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT
08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED,
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE LLCC. A 102126Z2 SPECIAL SENSOR
MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS DEPICTED A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND SOUTHWEST TO
WEST OF THE LLCC, AS WELL AS WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING DEVELOPING EAST
TO SOUTH. A 101958Z4 QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICTED A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH
25-30 KNOT WINDS. THE UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS SHOWS LIGHT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD OUTFLOW OVER
THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
120430Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20020211 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z8 --- NEAR 20.8S0 156.5E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8S0 156.5E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 22.0S4 156.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 23.1S6 157.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 24.1S7 157.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 25.6S3 158.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110900Z1 POSITION NEAR 21.1S4 156.6E8
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (CLAUDIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS DEVELOPED QUICKLY OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 14P HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
110530Z0 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35
AND 45 KNOTS (BRISBANE). ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SYSTEM WITH GOOD OUTFLOW OVER ALL QUADRANTS. A
110020Z4 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION DEPICTED CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS SHOWS
LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  TC 14P IS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE TROUGH TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THEREFORE, TC 14P IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH TO
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. TC 14P IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE UNDER A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WERE LIMITED WITH NOGAPS INDICATING A
SOUTHWARD TRACK THROUGH 30 HOURS, THEN ERRONEOUSLY NORTHEASTWARD
AFTERWARDS. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE, NOGAPS THROUGH 24
HOURS, THE MEDIUM BETA ADVECTION MODEL, AND THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z8 IS 10 FEET. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 110421Z9 FEB 02 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 110430) NEXT WARNINGS AT
112100Z5 AND 120900Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20020211 15:00z
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z5 --- NEAR 22.0S4 156.9E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.0S4 156.9E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 23.7S2 157.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 25.3S0 158.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 26.3S1 159.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 27.3S2 161.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 29.4S5 165.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
111500Z8 POSITION NEAR 22.4S8 157.1E4
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (CLAUDIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 14P HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
111130Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF
65 KNOTS WITH A CLEARLY DEFINED EYE IN INFRARED AND MICROWAVE
IMAGERY. HOWEVER, LATEST CI ESTIMATES RANGE FROM AS LOW AS 35 KNOTS
TO 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
DEVELOPING MIDGET SYSTEM (ABOUT 2 DEGREE DIAMETER) WITH A 8-NM EYE.
A 110958Z4 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS DEPICTS A DEVELOPING
EYE WITH A WEAK BANDING FEATURE SOUTH. THE UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS SHOWS
LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 14P IS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. THEREFORE, TC 14P IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD TO EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. TC 14P IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE UNDER A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, TC 14P IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS WERE LIMITED WITH NOGAPS INDICATING A SOUTHWARD TRACK,
THEN ERRONEOUSLY NORTHEASTWARD AFTERWARDS. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE, NOGAPS THROUGH 24 HOURS, THE MEDIUM BETA ADVECTION
MODEL, AND THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 111200Z5 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z5, 120300Z6,
120900Z2 AND 121500Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20020211 21:00z
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z1 --- NEAR 22.4S8 157.5E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.4S8 157.5E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 23.2S7 158.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 24.2S8 161.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 25.4S1 163.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 26.5S3 166.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 28.3S3 170.7E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
112100Z5 POSITION NEAR 22.6S0 157.8E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (CLAUDIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
WEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 111730Z3
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. THE 200 MB
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SOUTHWEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WITH GOOD OUTFLOW INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC 14P IS UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND
THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. TC 14P IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. TC 14P IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE UNDER A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSIST OF NOGAPS, AVIATION, AND THE UKMET
OFFICE GLOBAL MODELS. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A
CONSENSUS OF DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
111800Z1 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z6, 120900Z2, 121500Z9
AND 122100Z6.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20020212 03:00z
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z3 --- NEAR 23.2S7 158.3E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.2S7 158.3E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 24.3S9 160.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 25.5S2 163.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 26.4S2 165.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 27.3S2 168.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 28.9S9 174.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
120300Z6 POSITION NEAR 23.5S0 158.8E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (CLAUDIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
WEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 112330Z0
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS.
THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SOUTHWEST OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WITH GOOD OUTFLOW INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC
14P IS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF
THE SYSTEM AND THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. THE
STEERING FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY ZONAL AND TC 14P IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. TC 14P IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE EARLY IN THE FORECAST THEN SLOWLY
WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING
OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AVIATION, AND THE UKMET OFFICE GLOBAL MODELS FALL
INTO TWO CLUSTERS BASED ON SPEED. THE POTENTIAL FOR COMPENSATING
ERRORS IS HIGH, THEREFORE, OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A
CONSENSUS OF DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
120000Z3 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z2, 121500Z9, 122100Z6
AND 130300Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20020212 09:00z
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z9 --- NEAR 24.0S6 159.8E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.0S6 159.8E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 24.8S4 162.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 25.6S3 164.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 26.1S9 166.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 26.4S2 168.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 27.1S0 171.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120900Z2 POSITION NEAR 24.2S8 160.4E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (CLAUDIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 120530Z1 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN A REGION
OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE OUTFLOW AIDED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH. TC 14P CURRENTLY
IS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EAST-
NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. AS
THE TROUGH PASSES, THE STEERING WILL BE PROVIDED BY THE RIDGE TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO GUIDE TC 14P TO THE SOUTHEAST.
TC 14P IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSIST OF
NOGAPS, GFDN, AVIATION, UKMET OFFICE GLOBAL MODEL, AND THE BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY TCLAPS AND TLAPS MODELS. ALL THE AIDS AGREE IN A
SOUTHEAST TRACK BUT THE GFDN MODEL DIFFERS FROM THE OTHER AIDS WITH
REGARD TO SPEED. GFDN FORECASTS THE SYSTEM TO EMBED INTO THE
WESTERLY FLOW OF THE PASSING TROUGH AND AS A RESULT, TAKES TC 14P
RAPIDLY DOWNSTREAM. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A
CONSENSUS OF DYNAMIC AIDS MINUS GFDN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 120600Z9 IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z9, 122100Z6,
130300Z7, AND 130900Z3.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20020212 15:00z
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z6 --- NEAR 25.0S7 161.8E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0S7 161.8E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 26.1S9 164.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 26.7S5 167.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 27.4S3 170.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 27.9S8 172.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 29.1S2 178.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
121500Z9 POSITION NEAR 25.3S0 162.6E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (CLAUDIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM
SOUTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
21 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
121130Z8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. THE 200
MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IN A REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE OUTFLOW
AIDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING TO THE SOUTH. TC 14P IS UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM AND THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. AS THE TROUGH
PASSES, THE STEERING WILL BE PROVIDED BY THE RIDGE TO THE EAST-
NORTHEAST WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO GUIDE TC 14P TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC
14P IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSIST OF NOGAPS,
GFDN, AVIATION, AND UKMET OFFICE GLOBAL (EGRR) MODELS. THE AIDS
AGREE IN A SOUTHEAST TRACK, BUT TWO AIDS DIFFER WITH REGARD TO
SYSTEM SPEED. GFDN FORECASTS THE SYSTEM TO EMBED INTO THE WESTERLY
FLOW OF THE PASSING TROUGH AND AS A RESULT, TAKES TC 14P RAPIDLY
DOWNSTREAM. EGRR ON THE OTHER HAND, WEAKENS THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY
TRACKS THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE
AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 121200Z6 IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z6, 130300Z7,
130900Z3, AND 131500Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20020212 21:00z
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z2 --- NEAR 25.8S5 163.5E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.8S5 163.5E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 26.9S7 166.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 27.8S7 169.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 28.5S5 172.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 28.9S9 175.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
122100Z6 POSITION NEAR 26.1S9 164.3E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (CLAUDIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
SOUTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED AST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 17 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
121730Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. THE 200
MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN
A REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. TC 14P IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING FLOW OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 14P
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSIST OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AND UKMET OFFICE
GLOBAL (EGRR) MODELS. THE AIDS AGREE IN DIRECTION BUT DIFFER IN
SPEED. GFDN CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTEST MODEL, INDICATING RAPID
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A
CONSENSUS OF ALL THE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
121800Z2 IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z3 AND 132100Z7.//
=========================================================================
WARNING 008 NOT AVAILABLE
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20020213 21:00z    
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA 
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 009    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   131800Z3 --- NEAR 27.2S1 170.8E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 085 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
   REPEAT POSIT: 27.2S1 170.8E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z1 --- 27.4S3 174.3E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
132100Z7 POSITION NEAR 27.2S1  171.7E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (CLAUDIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS 
DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 131730Z5 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON 
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES THE 
SYSTEM HAS BEEN RAPIDLY SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST IN A HIGH VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM HAS UNDERGONE EXTRATROPICAL 
TRANSITION. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS WELL SOUTH 
OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. TC 14P IS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF 
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM THAT WILL GUIDE THE 
SYSTEM TO THE EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 14P IS EXPECTED 
TO CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND COOLER 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF 
NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE GLOBAL (EGRR), AND BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY 
TCLAPS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON 
PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL THE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT 
WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z3 IS 13 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON 
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN).  
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_claudia_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]