WTPS21 PGTW 20020304 21:30z
RMKS/
1. AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
2. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
3. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
175 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.5S4 156.8E0 TO 22.0S4
160.4E1 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
METSAT IMAGERY AT 041730Z5 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 19.5S5 157.8E1. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS.
4. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.0S0
157.5E8 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.5S5 157.8E1, APPROXIMATELY 550 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED OVER THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DURING
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS
LOCATED POLEWARD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS UNDER A REGION OF
MODERATE DIVERGENCE AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
5. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
052130Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20020305 09:00z
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/042121Z MAR 02//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   050600Z1 --- NEAR 19.1S1 159.1E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S1 159.1E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z4 --- 20.5S7 160.4E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z2 --- 22.1S5 161.6E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z5 --- 24.0S6 162.9E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z3 --- 25.8S5 164.9E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
050900Z4 POSITION NEAR 19.4S4 159.4E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM NORTHEAST OF
BRISBANE HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 7 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 050530Z3 MULTI-SPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 200MB
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS UNDERNEATH FAVORABLE OUTFLOW
ALOFT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY SLOWLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR MIDWAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TC 17P IS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE
EAST OF THE SYSTEM, AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS (AVN AND EGRR) AGREE WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE,
MEDIUM LAYER BETA ADVECTION MODEL, AND THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z1 IS 10 FEET. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 042121Z MAR 02 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 042130) NEXT WARNINGS AT
052100Z8 AND 060900Z5.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20020305 21:00z    
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA 
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (DES) WARNING NR 002    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   051800Z4 --- NEAR 19.5S5 160.7E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S5 160.7E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z2 --- 21.1S4 161.6E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z5 --- 22.7S1 162.2E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z3 --- 24.0S6 163.6E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z6 --- 25.4S1 165.1E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
    ---
REMARKS:
052100Z8 POSITION NEAR 19.9S9 160.9E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 6 
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 
051730Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED 
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING AROUND 
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 200 MB 
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS UNDERNEATH FAVORABLE OUTFLOW 
ALOFT. INTENSIFICATION FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOWER THAN 
CLIMATOLOGY AS IT ENCOUNTERS SHEAR TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. 
TC 17P IS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE 
EAST OF THE SYSTEM, AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING 
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE RIDGE REMAINS IN 
PLACE. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS (AVN, NOGAPS AND EGRR) AGREE WITH 
THIS SCENARIO. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE 
AND THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 
051800Z4 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z5 AND 062100Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20020306 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (DES) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   060600Z2 --- NEAR 21.0S3 162.7E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S3 162.7E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z5 --- 22.7S1 164.2E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z3 --- 24.5S1 166.2E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z6 --- 26.1S9 169.1E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 22 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z4 --- 27.9S8 173.6E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
060900Z5 POSITION NEAR 21.4S7 163.1E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (DES), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 060530Z4 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS SHEARED EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). 200 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS POLEWARD OF THE
RIDGE AXIS, UNDERNEATH MARGINAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC 17P WILL CONTINUE
TO ENCOUNTER INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THEREFORE A WEAKENING
TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TC 17P IS UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM, AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
(GFDN, AVN, NOGAPS AND EGRR) AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE FORECAST
TRACK IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z2 IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 062100Z9 AND 070900Z6.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20020306 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (DES) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   061800Z5 --- NEAR 22.5S9 164.4E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY EXTRAPOLATION
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.5S9 164.4E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z3 --- 23.8S3 166.0E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z6 --- 25.3S0 168.0E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
062100Z9 POSITION NEAR 22.8S2 164.8E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (DES), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM WEST
OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
EXTRAPOLATION. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE DEEP CONVECTION IS SHEARED SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 200 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS
POLEWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF STRONG VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. TC 17P WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE UNDER STRONG VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR THOUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 17P IS UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM, AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF GFDN, AVN, NOGAPS
AND EGRR AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON A
BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z5 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNING IS AT
070900Z6.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20020307 09:00z COR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (DES) WARNING NR 005A CORRECTED
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   070600Z3 --- NEAR 24.1S7 168.1E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 24.1S7 168.1E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z6 --- 24.3S9 170.2E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
070900Z6 POSITION NEAR 24.1S7 168.6E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (DES), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM
SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
16 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
070642Z9 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSMI) 37 GHZ IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 25 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS SHEARED SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). TC 17P IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE UNDER STRONG VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION:
CORRECT POSITION FIX IMAGERY PLATFORM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 070600Z3 IS 12 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_des_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]