Updated: 17 June 2020
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WTXS21 PGTW 20020406 11:00z
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.9S0 101.3E5 TO 13.5S9 95.7E1
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 060830Z7 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 11.1S3 101.1E3. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.5S6 100.9E0 IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 11.1S3 101.1E3, APPROXIMATELY 255 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
THE COCOS ISLANDS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH A DEVELOPING BAND IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. THE
060000Z6 200 MB ANAL REVEALED THAT THE AREA IS UNDERNEATH THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS AN
APPROACHING MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD
ENHANCE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. A RECENT QUIKSCAT
PASS INDICATED 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1005 MB. BECAUSE OF THE INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
071100Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020407 03:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061051Z APR 02//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z7 --- NEAR 12.4S7 98.2E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S7 98.2E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 13.1S5 96.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 13.9S3 94.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 14.8S3 92.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 15.9S5 89.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070300Z0 POSITION NEAR 12.6S9 97.7E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN ABOUT
76 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND. TC 21S HAS TRACED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 062330Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS.
SATELLITE ANIMATION AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OFF OF THE
WEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE THE TRACK THROUGH
THE PERIOD. AVAILABLE NWP (NOGAPS, UKMET SPECTRAL, AND AVN) WERE
USED AS THE BASIS OF OUR FORECAST. TC 21S SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS BENEATH A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z7
IS 12 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVPACMETOCCEN 061051Z APR 02 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTXS21 PGTW 061100) NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z3 AND 080300Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020407 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z0 --- NEAR 13.2S6 95.8E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S6 95.8E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 14.1S6 93.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 15.1S7 91.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 16.1S8 89.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 17.4S2 87.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
071500Z3 POSITION NEAR 13.4S8 95.2E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (DIANNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 071130Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 55 KNOTS. SATELLITE ANIMATION DEPICTS SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
RECENT TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASUREMENT MISSION (TRMM) PASS REVEALS A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL BANDING EYE FEATURE. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OFF OF THE WEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA IS
EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE THE TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD. AVAILABLE NWP
(GFDN, NOGAPS, UKMET SPECTRAL, AND AVN) WERE USED AS THE BASIS OF
OUR FORECAST. TC 21S SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS BENEATH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z0 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
080300Z1 AND 081500Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020408 03:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z8 --- NEAR 14.5S0 93.2E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S0 93.2E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 15.7S3 90.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 16.9S6 88.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 18.3S2 87.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 19.8S8 86.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080300Z1 POSITION NEAR 14.8S3 92.6E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (DIANNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS
TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 072330Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 072300Z2 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) PASS. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. SATELLITE ANIMATION DEPICTS CONTINUED
ORGANIZATION OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE 0723000Z2 TRMM PASS REVEALED TIGHTLY CURVED BANDS
WITH A DEVELOPING BANDING EYE FEATURE. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BEING
STEERED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 21S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE TURING MORE TO THE
SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE
FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF FOUR AVAILABLE NWP MODELS
(NOGAPS, UKMET SPECTRAL, NCEP AVN, AND GFDN). TC 21S SHOULD CONTINUE
TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS BENEATH A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z8
IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z4 AND 090300Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020408 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z1 --- NEAR 15.4S0 90.9E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S0 90.9E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 16.7S4 88.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 18.1S0 86.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 19.8S8 85.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 21.7S0 85.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
081500Z4 POSITION NEAR 15.7S3 90.3E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (DIANNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS
TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 081130Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. EARLIER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALED A DEVELOPING CLOUD FILLED BANDING EYE FEATURE. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN IMPROVED SINGLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL ENHANCED BY THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC IS FORECAST TO
TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE TURNING
MORE TO THE SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF SIX AVAILABLE NWP
MODELS (NOGAPS, UKMET SPECTRAL, NCEP AVN, TCLAPS, TLAPS, AND GFDN).
TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO REACH ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY IN 24 TO 36 HOURS
AS IT TRACKS BENEATH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THEREAFTER, IT SHOULD
BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z1 IS 17 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z2 AND 091500Z5.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020409 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z9 --- NEAR 16.5S2 89.6E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S2 89.6E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 17.7S5 88.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 19.1S1 87.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 20.7S9 86.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 22.7S1 86.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090300Z2 POSITION NEAR 16.8S5 89.3E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (DIANNE-JERY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500
NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS
TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 082330Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A 15 NM EYE HAS DEVELOPED. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTS ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL DUE TO AN APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. TC 21S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE TURNING SOUTH AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WEAKENS. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF SIX AVAILABLE NWP
MODELS, INCLUDING NOGAPS, UKMET SPECTRAL, NCEP AVN, TCLAPS, TLAPS,
AND GFDN. TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO REACH ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY IN 24
HOURS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS
SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z9 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
091500Z5 AND 100300Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020409 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (DIANNE-JERY) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z2 --- NEAR 17.8S6 88.0E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S6 88.0E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 19.5S5 87.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 21.5S8 86.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 23.2S7 86.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 25.1S8 87.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
091500Z5 POSITION NEAR 18.2S1 87.7E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (DIANNE-JERY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 615
NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS
TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 091130Z4 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 105 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS HAD STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS THAT HAS HELPED INTENSIFY THE
SYSTEM. TC 21S IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG
15.0S6 AND IS TRACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
EASTWARD PERIPHERY MID-LEVEL RIDGE. A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND ENHANCE THE PERIPHERY
EASTERN RIDGE, RESULTING IN A CONTINUED TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THEREAFTER, TC 21 IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD
INTO THE WEAKNESS DEVELOPED BY THE PASSING MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF FIVE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS
INCLUDING NOGAPS, UKMET SPECTRAL, NCEP AVN, TCLAPS, AND GFDN.
TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO REACH ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY IN 12 HOURS AND
THEN WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD UNDER INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z2 IS 24 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z4 AND 101500Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020410 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z1 --- NEAR 19.0S0 88.0E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S0 88.0E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 20.9S1 87.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 22.9S3 87.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 25.0S7 88.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 27.2S1 90.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
100300Z4 POSITION NEAR 19.5S5 88.0E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (DIANNE-JERY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650
NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS
TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 092330Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 90 AND 102 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS BEING SHEARED IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT. A 092246Z3 TRMM PASS SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS BEING SHEARED BY UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES. TC 21S
REMAINS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 15.0S6. THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES. TC 21S HAS BEGUN TO TRANSITION TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL
SYSTEM AND IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE TRANSITION BY 48 HOURS. THE
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF FOUR AVAILABLE NWP MODELS
INCLUDING NOGAPS, UKMET SPECTRAL, NCEP AVN, AND GFDN. TC 21S IS
EXPECTED WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z1 IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z7 AND 110300Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
22S WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020410 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z4 --- NEAR 20.4S6 88.3E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S6 88.3E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 21.9S2 88.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 24.2S8 88.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 27.2S1 90.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
101500Z7 POSITION NEAR 20.8S0 88.3E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (DIANNE-JERY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 690
NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS
TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 101130Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THERE IS NO LONGER DEEP CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE
AND NOW OPEN CELL CUMULUS CAN BE SEEN WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER.
ADDITIONALLY, THE CIRRUS SHIELD NOW EXTENDS TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST.
THESE FACTORS SUGGEST THAT EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS WELL UNDER
WAY. A RECENT TRMM PASS FURTHER SUPPORTS TRANSITION BY SHOWING
THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 21S IS
SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 15.5S AND UNDER MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
GUIDED BY THE PERIPHERY RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THEN TURN
SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE SYSTEM FINISHES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
TC 21S WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD AND ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF SIX AVAILABLE NWP MODELS INCLUDING NOGAPS, UKMET
SPECTRAL, NCEP AVN, TCLAPS, TLAPS, AND GFDN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z4 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z5 AND
111500Z8. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (BONNIE) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020411 03:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (DIANNE-JERY) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z2 --- NEAR 21.2S5 88.6E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2S5 88.6E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 23.3S8 90.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 26.4S2 92.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
110300Z5 POSITION NEAR 21.7S0 89.0E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (DIANNE-JERY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 720
NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS
TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 102330Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 110000Z2 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSMI) PASS. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65
AND 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH DEEP
CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE 110000Z2 SSMI PASS ALSO INDICATES A
COMPLETELY EXPOSED LLCC. THE SSMI PASS ALSO SHOWS A LARGE BAND OF
DRY AIR TO THE NORTH BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE LLCC. THESE FACTORS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS WELL UNDER WAY.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD AND IS
EXPECTED TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 24 HOURS. TC 21S
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD AND ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF SEVEN AVAILABLE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS INCLUDING
NOGAPS, UK-MET OFFICE, NCEP AVN, TCLAPS, TLAPS, AFWA MM5 AND GFDN.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z2 IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNING AT 111500Z8. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (BONNIE)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020411 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (DIANNE-JERY) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z5 --- NEAR 22.7S1 89.0E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7S1 89.0E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 24.6S2 89.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
111500Z8 POSITION NEAR 23.2S7 89.1E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (DIANNE-JERY) IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN,
HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 111130Z7 MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A RECENT TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASUREMENT MISSION (TRMM)
PASS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A COMPLETELY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL WITH THE REMAINING DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TC 21S WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS
IT TRACKS POLEWARD AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF SEVEN AVAILABLE NUMERICAL
WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS INCLUDING NOGAPS, UK-MET OFFICE, NCEP AVN,
TCLAPS, TLAPS, AFWA MM5 AND GFDN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
111200Z5 IS 15 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 22S (BONNIE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR THEE FINAL
WARNING.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_dianne-jery_jtwc_advisories.htm
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