Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone DINA : JTWC Advisories |
Season 2001-2002 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
---> Tropical Cyclone DINA Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20020117 06:30z RMKS/ 1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA 2. AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 3. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 090 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.1S0 75.3E5 TO 12.2S5 71.8E6 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 170530Z6 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.2S1 75.2E4. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS. 4. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.0S7 75.8E0 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.2S1 75.2E4, ABOUT 200 NM ESE OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING ORGANIZATION OF A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT 170309Z0 SSMI PASS ALONG WITH 170328Z1 PARTIAL TRMM PASS BOTH INDICATE INCREASING CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC WITH DEVELOPING BANDING IN THE NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES CONVECTION CURRENTLY IN A REGION OF WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MOVING INTO AN AREA OF STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW GOOD. 5. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 180630Z8.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20020117 21:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DINA) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 171800Z7 --- NEAR 11.5S7 72.4E3 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.5S7 72.4E3 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z5 --- 12.6S9 71.0E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z8 --- 13.7S1 69.7E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z6 --- 14.8S3 68.3E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z9 --- 15.9S5 66.9E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 172100Z1 POSITION NEAR 11.8S0 72.0E9. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 171730Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 TO 55 KNOTS. RECENT SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGERY (SSM/I) INDICATES A DEVELOPING EYEWALL. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE MID- LATITUDE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM THAT SHOULD CAUSE THE TRACK TO TURN MORE POLEWARD AFTER 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z7 IS 14 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 170621Z JAN 02 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 170630) NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z8 AND 182100Z2.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20020118 09:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DINA) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 180600Z5 --- NEAR 13.6S0 69.9E4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 18 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S0 69.9E4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z8 --- 15.3S9 67.8E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z6 --- 16.1S8 66.2E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z9 --- 16.7S4 64.6E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z8 --- 17.2S0 63.2E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 180530Z7 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. RECENT SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGERY (SSM/I) INDICATED A DEVELOPING EYEWALL WITH 180716Z3 METSAT-5 VISIBLE IMAGERY NOW SHOWING A VERY WELL DEFINED 17 NM DIAMETER EYE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LATITUDE RIDGE AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO SLOW DOWN AS STEERING FLOW TO THE SOUTH WEAKENS BY 48 HOURS. 180900Z8 POSITION NEAR 14.0S5 69.4E9. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z5 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z2 AND 190900Z9.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20020118 21:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DINA) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 181800Z8 --- NEAR 15.4S0 67.9E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S0 67.9E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z6 --- 16.6S3 66.5E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z9 --- 17.2S0 64.8E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z8 --- 17.4S2 63.4E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z1 --- 17.5S3 62.0E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 182100Z2 POSITION NEAR 15.7S3 67.5E8. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 181730Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 TO 90 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TC 10S IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOW AND TRACK WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS THE STEERING FLOW POLEWARD OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z8 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z9 AND 192100Z3.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20020119 09:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DINA) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 190600Z6 --- NEAR 16.5S2 66.9E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S2 66.9E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z9 --- 17.4S2 65.7E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z8 --- 18.1S0 63.7E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z1 --- 18.5S4 62.0E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z9 --- 18.8S7 60.5E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 190900Z9 POSITION NEAR 16.7S4 66.6E8. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM NORTHEAST OF RODRIGUES ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 190530Z8 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS. AN EARLIER 190134Z8 TRMM (37 GHZ) PASS DEPICTED A PARTIAL EYEWALL FEATURE AND A STRONG CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE NORTH QUADRANT. MID-LEVEL HIGH HEIGHT CENTER SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR IS FORECAST TO BUILD GRADUALLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CREATING A MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IN THE SYSTEM. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF AVAILABLE NWP (NOGAPS, AVN, GFDN, UKMET SPECTRAL) AND THE DEEP BETA ADVECTION MODEL BASED OFF OF THE 190000Z0 NOGAPS RUN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z6 IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z3 AND 200900Z1.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20020119 21:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DINA) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191800Z9 --- NEAR 17.2S0 65.7E8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S0 65.7E8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z8 --- 17.7S5 64.3E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z1 --- 18.2S1 62.3E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z9 --- 18.5S4 60.5E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z2 --- 18.7S6 58.7E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 192100Z3 POSITION NEAR 17.3S1 65.4E5. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTHEAST OF RODRIGUES ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 191730Z1 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 AND 115 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND A RAGGED EYE FORMING AT THIS TIME. A MID-LEVEL HIGH HEIGHT CENTER SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR IS FORECAST TO BUILD GRADUALLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CREATING A MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IN THE SYSTEM. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF AVAILABLE NWP (NOGAPS, AVN, GFDN, UKMET SPECTRAL). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z9 IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z1 AND 202100Z5.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20020120 09:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DINA) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200600Z8 --- NEAR 18.0S9 64.2E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S9 64.2E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z1 --- 18.5S4 62.5E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z9 --- 19.0S0 60.4E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z2 --- 19.2S2 58.4E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z0 --- 19.6S6 56.3E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 200900Z1 POSITION NEAR 18.1S0 63.8E7. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF RODRIGUES ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 200530Z0 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 TO 140 KNOTS. IMAGERY ANALYSIS INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND OF THE TOPS OF THE CONVECTIVE RING, AS WELL AS THE EMERGENCE OF A DISTINCT (APPROX) 19 NM EYE. THEREFORE, WE BUMPED UP THE INTENSITY TO 130 KNOTS. A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR TO (APPROX) 30.0S3 60.0E6 SHOULD INFLUENCE A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF AVAILABLE NWP (NOGAPS, AVN, GFDN, UKMET SPECTRAL) AND THE DEEP LAYER BETA ADVECTION MODEL BASED ON THE 200000Z2 NOGAPS RUN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z8 IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z5 AND 210900Z2.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20020120 21:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DINA) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 201800Z1 --- NEAR 18.6S5 62.6E4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S5 62.6E4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z9 --- 18.9S8 61.3E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z2 --- 18.9S8 59.7E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z0 --- 19.1S1 57.9E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z3 --- 19.2S2 55.9E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 202100Z5 POSITION NEAR 18.7S6 62.3E1. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 201730Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 TO 140 KNOTS. IMAGERY ANALYSIS INDICATES A WARMING TREND OF CLOUD TOPS DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR SHOULD INFLUENCE A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE PASSAGE OF A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATE IN THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND TURN THE SYSTEM MORE POLEWARD AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF AVAILABLE NWP (NOGAPS, AVN, GFDN, UKMET SPECTRAL) AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z1 IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z2 AND 212100Z6.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20020121 09:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DINA) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 210600Z9 --- NEAR 18.9S8 60.5E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S8 60.5E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z2 --- 19.1S1 58.5E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z0 --- 19.4S4 56.5E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z3 --- 19.7S7 54.9E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z1 --- 20.1S3 53.5E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 210900Z2 POSITION NEAR 19.0S0 60.0E6. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 210530Z1 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 127 KNOTS. A 210505Z3 SSM/I PASS DEPICTED AN OUTER CONVECTIVE RING DEVELOPING AROUND THE EXISTING INNER EYEWALL. CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS EXPANSION OF THE EYE FEATURE. A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL EVENT MAY BE IN THE MAKING, WHICH WOULD CAUSE A TEMPORARY INTENSIFICATION PERIOD. THE SUBTROPICAL MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR SHOULD INFLUENCE A GENERALLY WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF AVAILABLE NWP (NOGAPS, AVN, GFDN, UKMET SPECTRAL) AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z9 IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z6 AND 220900Z3.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20020121 21:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DINA) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 211800Z2 --- NEAR 19.3S3 58.5E8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S3 58.5E8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z0 --- 19.6S6 56.5E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z3 --- 19.8S8 55.0E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z1 --- 20.3S5 53.9E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z4 --- 21.2S5 53.0E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 212100Z6 POSITION NEAR 19.4S4 58.0E3. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 211730Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 127 KNOTS. A 211738Z2 SSM/I PASS IS NO LONGER INDICATING CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS WITH 26 NM EYE DIAMETER NOTED IN LATEST INFRARED IMAGERY. THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD INFLUENCE A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THIS RIDGE BY 36 HOURS AND ALLOW FOR TC 10S (DINA) TO BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND AVAILABLE NWP (NOGAPS, AVN, GFDN, UKMET) WHICH ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SOUTHWEST MOTION LATE IN THE FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z2 IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z3 AND 222100Z7.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20020122 09:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DINA) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220600Z0 --- NEAR 19.5S5 56.8E9 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S5 56.8E9 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z3 --- 19.9S9 55.3E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z1 --- 20.5S7 54.0E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z4 --- 21.4S7 53.2E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z2 --- 22.5S9 52.7E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 220900Z3 POSITION NEAR 19.6S6 56.4E5. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 220530Z2 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 127 KNOTS. A 42 NM EYE DIAMETER IS NOTED IN THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD INFLUENCE A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AN UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THIS RIDGE BY 24 HOURS AND ALLOW FOR TC 10S (DINA) TO BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND AVAILABLE NWP (NOGAPS, AVN, GFDN, UKMET) AND CLIPPER WHICH ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z0 IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z7 AND 230900Z4.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20020122 21:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DINA) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 221800Z3 --- NEAR 20.3S5 54.9E8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S5 54.9E8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z1 --- 21.1S4 53.8E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z4 --- 22.1S5 52.9E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z2 --- 23.3S8 52.4E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z5 --- 24.5S1 52.1E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 222100Z7 POSITION NEAR 20.5S7 54.6E5 TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 45 NM NORTHWEST OF REUNION ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 221730Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 127 KNOTS. A 38 NM EYE DIAMETER, SLIGHTLY ELONGATED, IS NOTED IN THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. TC 10S (DINA) WILL BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHWEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. AN APPROACHING TROUGH, LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, WILL STEER THE SYSTEM POLEWARD. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS (NOGAPS, AVN, GFDN, UKMET) WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED TRACK SOUTHWEST AND THEN SOUTHWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z3 IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z4 AND 232100Z8.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20020123 09:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DINA) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230600Z1 --- NEAR 21.1S4 53.8E6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S4 53.8E6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z4 --- 22.2S6 52.7E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z2 --- 23.4S9 52.4E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z5 --- 24.5S1 52.3E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z3 --- 25.6S3 52.4E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 230900Z4 POSITION NEAR 21.4S7 53.5E3. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM WEST OF REUNION ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 230530Z5 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS. A 36 NM EYE DIAMETER IS NOTED IN THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. TC 10S (DINA) WILL BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL STEER THE SYSTEM POLEWARD. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS (NOGAPS, AVN, GFDN, UKMET) WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED SOUTHWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z1 IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z8 AND 240900Z5.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20020123 21:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DINA) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z4 --- NEAR 22.8S2 53.1E9 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S2 53.1E9 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z2 --- 23.7S2 52.8E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z5 --- 24.5S1 52.4E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z3 --- 25.9S6 52.2E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z6 --- 27.4S3 52.3E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 232100Z8 POSITION NEAR 23.0S5 53.0E8. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM SOUTHWEST OF REUNION ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 231730Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 231501Z2 SSM/I PASS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 102 KNOTS. TC 10S (DINA) SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING MID-LAT TROUGH. MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THE ONSEET OF EYEWALL EROSION DURING THE PAST 12 HOU ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20020124 09:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DINA) WARNING NR 014 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240600Z2 --- NEAR 25.3S0 52.7E4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.3S0 52.7E4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z5 --- 27.6S5 52.8E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z3 --- 28.6S6 53.4E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z6 --- 29.6S7 54.6E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z4 --- 30.6S9 57.3E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 240900Z5 POSITION NEAR 25.9S6 52.7E4. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DINA), LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 14 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 240530Z4 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 TO 90 KNOTS. ANIMATION DEPICTS THAT TC 10S (DINA) HAS BEGUN EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION. TC 10S IS FORECAST TO TURN INCREASINGLY SOUTHEASTWARD BY MID PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A MID- LATITUDE BAROCLINIC SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z2 IS 26 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (NO NAME) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z9 AND 250900Z6.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20020124 21:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DINA) WARNING NR 015 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 241800Z5 --- NEAR 27.8S7 52.4E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 27.8S7 52.4E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z3 --- 30.1S4 54.4E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 242100Z9 POSITION NEAR 28.4S4 52.9E6. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DINA), LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 241730Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. ANIMATION DEPICTS THAT TC 10S (DINA) NEARING THE FINAL STAGES OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. TC 10S IS FORECAST TO TURN INCREASINGLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE AS IT INTERACTS WITH A MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z5 IS 26 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (EDDY) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
Document: tropical_cyclone_dina_jtwc_advisories.htm
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