Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone GUILLAUME : JTWC Advisories |
Season 2001-2002 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
---> Tropical Cyclone GUILLAUME Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20020215 01:00z RMKS/ 1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A 160 NM RADIUS OF 17.8S6 52.2E9 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 142330Z3 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.1S0 50.5E0. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. 3. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.2S1 .7E0 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.1S0 50.5E0, JUST OFF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING ORGANIZATION OF A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CONVECTION IS IN A REGION OF WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW GOOD. 4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 160100Z8. ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20020215 21:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 151800Z5 --- NEAR 15.8S4 51.9E5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S4 51.9E5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z3 --- 15.0S6 52.5E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z6 --- 14.2S7 53.4E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z4 --- 13.8S2 54.3E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z7 --- 14.1S6 55.3E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 152100Z9 POSITION NEAR 15.6S2 52.0E7. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR, CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. TC 15S HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 151730Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BANDING FEATURE FORMING IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 15S IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE OVER MADAGASCAR FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND THEN IN AN EASTWARD DIRECTION BASED ON THE STEERING FLOW OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF THE UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR), NOGAPS, AND AVIATION (AVN) MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL THE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z5 IS 11 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 150051Z FEB 02 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 150100). NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z6 AND 162100Z0.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20020216 09:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 160600Z3 --- NEAR 15.0S6 52.9E6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S6 52.9E6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z6 --- 14.4S9 54.1E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z4 --- 14.2S7 55.3E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z7 --- 14.6S1 56.5E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z5 --- 15.4S0 57.6E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 160900Z6 POSITION NEAR 14.8S3 53.2E0. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR, CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. TC 15S HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 160530Z5 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW DEPICTS THE BANDING FEATURE NOW EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 15S IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE OVER MADAGASCAR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD, TC 15S SHOULD TRACK TOWARDS THE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD DIRECTION AS THE STEERING FLOW BECOMES GOVERNED BY A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. TC 15S IS TRACKING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF THE UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR), NOGAPS, AND AVIATION (AVN) MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL THE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z5 IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z0 AND 170900Z7.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20020216 21:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUILLAUME) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 161800Z6 --- NEAR 14.3S8 54.2E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S8 54.2E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z4 --- 14.3S8 55.7E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z7 --- 15.0S6 56.8E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z5 --- 15.9S5 57.6E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z8 --- 16.7S4 58.2E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 162100Z0 POSITION NEAR 14.3S8 54.6E5. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GUILLAUME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM NORTH OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 161730Z8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTING EYEWALL DEVELOPMENT. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BANDING EYE AND A PRIMARY BAND IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. TC 15S IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE THEN SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE PERIPHERAL RIDGE DEVELOPS. TC 15S IS TRACKING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ON BOTH SIDES. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD BEFORE RESUMING CLIMATOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT BY THE 24 HOUR POINT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDE THE UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR), NOGAPS, GFDN, AND AVIATION (AVN) MODELS. THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND ARE SUPPORTED BY THE BAROTROPIC ADVECTION MODELS. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z6 IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z7 AND 172100Z1.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20020217 09:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUILLAUME) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 170600Z4 --- NEAR 14.5S0 56.3E4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S0 56.3E4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z7 --- 15.1S7 57.8E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z5 --- 16.5S2 59.0E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z8 --- 18.6S5 59.7E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 15 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z6 --- 21.6S9 59.8E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 170900Z7 POSITION NEAR 14.7S2 56.7E8. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GUILLAUME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM NORTH OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 170515Z9 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 102 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TC 15S HAS DEVELOPED A 09 NM EYE AND HAS A WELL DEVELOPED BANDING FEATURE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. TC 15S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE PERIPHERAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 15S IS TRACKING UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS AND HAS DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT TRACKS UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS. AFTERWARDS, AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH SHOULD INCREASE THE VERTICAL SHEAR AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING THE UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR), NOGAPS, GFDN, AND AVIATION (AVN) MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z4 IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z1 AND 180900Z8.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20020217 21:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUILLAUME) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 171800Z7 --- NEAR 15.5S1 58.1E4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S1 58.1E4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z5 --- 16.8S5 59.2E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z8 --- 18.3S2 59.8E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z6 --- 19.7S7 59.6E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z9 --- 21.1S4 59.4E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 172100Z1 POSITION NEAR 15.8S4 58.4E7. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GUILLAUME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM NORTH OF PORT LOUIS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 171730Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 102 KNOTS. TC 15S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THEN SOUTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 15S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SLOWLY WEAKEN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDE THE UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR), NOGAPS, GFDN, AND AVIATION (AVN) MODELS. THE MODELS ARE IN TWO CLUSTERS, WITH AVN AND EGRR SHOWING A SLOWER TRACK AND NOGAPS AND GFDN TRACKING TC 15S MORE RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE PRINCIPLE DIFFERENCE APPEARS TO BE THE STRENGTH OF INTERACTION WITH AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z7 IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z8 AND 182100Z2.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20020218 09:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUILLAUME) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 180600Z5 --- NEAR 16.7S4 59.2E6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S4 59.2E6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z8 --- 18.1S0 59.9E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z6 --- 19.7S7 60.2E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z9 --- 21.3S6 60.3E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z8 --- 23.2S7 60.5E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 180900Z8 POSITION NEAR 17.0S8 59.4E8. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GUILLAUME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM NORTH OF PORT LOUIS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 180515Z0 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 102 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A 10 NM ELONGATED EYE SURROUNDED BY 55 NM OF DEEP CONVECTION. TC 15S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THEN SOUTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 15S REMAINS NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS AND WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES AFTER 24 HOURS. THEREFORE TC 15S SHOULD BE AT ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDE THE UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR), NOGAPS, GFDN, AND AVIATION (AVN) MODELS. THE MODELS ARE IN TWO CLUSTERS, WITH AVN AND EGRR SHOWING A SLOWER TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND NOGAPS AND GFDN TRACKING TC 15S MORE RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE DIFFERENTIATING FACTOR IN THE MODELS IS THE DEGREE OF INTERACTION WITH THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z5 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z2 AND 190900Z9.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20020218 21:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUILLAUME) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 181800Z8 --- NEAR 18.2S1 59.6E0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S1 59.6E0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z6 --- 19.5S5 59.6E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z9 --- 20.8S0 59.6E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z8 --- 22.1S5 59.6E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z1 --- 23.6S1 59.4E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 182100Z2 POSITION NEAR 18.5S4 59.6E0. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GUILLAUME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 166 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 181751Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 127 KNOTS. A 181650Z1 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGE (SSMI) PASS INDICATES THAT TC 15S HAS A 12 NM IRREGULAR EYE WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS UNDERNEATH DIFLUENT FLOW AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BUT WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. THEREFORE, TC 15S IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT ITS INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS, AND WEAKEN THEREAFTER. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING THE UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR), NGPS, GFDN, AND AVIATION (AVN) MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON TRACK AND SPEED. GFDN INDICATES A STRONGER SYSTEM TRACKING TC 15S MORE RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC TROUGH. ALL THE OTHER MODELS REFLECT A WEAKER SYSTEM, TRACKING IT TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS, HEDGING TOWARDS THE SECOND SCENARIO AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS LATE IN THE PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z8 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z9 AND 192100Z3.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20020219 03:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUILLAUME) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 190000Z0 --- NEAR 19.0S0 59.4E8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S0 59.4E8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z3 --- 20.2S4 59.3E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z2 --- 21.6S9 59.1E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z5 --- 23.1S6 59.1E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z3 --- 24.7S3 59.3E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 190300Z3 POSITION NEAR 19.3S3 59.4E8. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GUILLAUME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 182330Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 127 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 15S HAS A 13 NM IRREGULAR EYE WITH DECREASING DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS UNDERNEATH DIFLUENT FLOW AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BUT WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. THEREFORE, TC 15S IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT ITS INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS, AND WEAKEN THEREAFTER. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING THE UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR), NGPS, GFDN, AND AVIATION (AVN) MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON FORECAST TRACK AND SPEED. GFDN INDICATES A STRONG SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, TRACKING TC 15S MORE RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC TROUGH. ALL THE OTHER MODELS REFLECT A WEAKENING SYSTEM, TRACKING IT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z0 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z9, 191500Z6, 192100Z3 AND 200300Z5.// ========================================================================= WARNING 009 NOT AVAILABLE ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20020219 15:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUILLAUME) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191200Z3 --- NEAR 20.1S3 59.0E4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S3 59.0E4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z2 --- 21.5S8 58.7E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z5 --- 22.9S3 58.6E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z3 --- 24.6S2 59.2E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z6 --- 26.1S9 60.2E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 191500Z6 POSITION NEAR 20.4S6 58.9E2. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GUILLAUME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 191130Z5 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 15S MAINTAINS A 10 NM IRREGULAR EYE WITH DECREASING CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS UNDERNEATH DIFLUENT FLOW AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BUT WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. THEREFORE, TC 15S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING THE UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR), NGPS, GFDN, AND AVIATION (AVN) MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON FORECAST TRACK AND SPEED. GFDN INDICATES A STRONG SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, TRACKING TC 15S MORE RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC TROUGH. ALL THE OTHER MODELS REFLECT A WEAKENING SYSTEM, TRACKING IT SOUTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z3 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z3, 200300Z5, 200900Z1 AND 201500Z8.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20020219 21:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUILLAUME) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191800Z9 --- NEAR 20.6S8 58.9E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S8 58.9E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z8 --- 21.6S9 58.8E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z1 --- 22.7S1 58.6E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z9 --- 24.3S9 58.9E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z2 --- 25.8S5 59.6E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 192100Z3 POSITION NEAR 20.9S1 58.9E2. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GUILLAUME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 191730Z1 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 15S HAS A 15 NM IRREGULAR EYE. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE, TC 15S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN INTENSITY BEGINNING IN THE MID-PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING THE UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR), NGPS, GFDN, AND AVIATION (AVN) MODELS ARE GROUPED INTO SLOW AND FAST CLUSTERS, WITH GFDN HAVING THE GREATEST TRANSLATION SPEED INTO THE MIDLATITUDE FLOW. ALL THE OTHER MODELS REFLECT A WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD BIAS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z9 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z1 AND 202100Z5.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20020220 09:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUILLAUME) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200600Z8 --- NEAR 21.0S3 58.8E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S3 58.8E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z1 --- 22.0S4 58.8E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z9 --- 23.0S5 58.9E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z2 --- 24.3S9 59.2E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z0 --- 25.7S4 59.8E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 200900Z1 POSITION NEAR 21.3S6 58.8E1. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GUILLAUME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 200530Z0 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 TO 127 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 15S HAS A 24 NM EYE. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE, TC 15S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN INTENSITY BEGINNING IN THE MID-PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING THE UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR), NGPS, AND GFDN MODELS ARE GROUPED INTO SLOW AND FAST CLUSTERS, WITH GFDN HAVING THE GREATEST TRANSLATION SPEED INTO THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW. ALL THE OTHER MODELS REFLECT A WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD BIAS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z8 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z8, 202100Z5, 210300Z6 AND 210900Z2.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20020220 21:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUILLAUME) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 201800Z1 --- NEAR 22.4S8 59.9E3 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.4S8 59.9E3 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z9 --- 24.1S7 61.1E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z2 --- 25.6S3 62.5E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z0 --- 27.6S5 65.1E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 15 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z3 --- 29.3S4 67.8E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 202100Z5 POSITION NEAR 22.8S2 60.2E8. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GUILLAUME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 201730Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 TO 115 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 15S WEAKENED DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS AS MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES ENCROACHED ON THE UPPER LEVELS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS TOWARD INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPS. TC 15S IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 15S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND APPROACHING MID-LAT TROUGH. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDE THE UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR), NGPS, GFDN, AND AVIATION (AVN) MODELS. THE MODELS ARE SLOWLY CONVERGING ON THE SOLUTION DISCUSSED ABOVE. FIELD ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT GFDN MAY BE EXCESSIVELY INTERACTING WITH THE MID-LAT TROUGH AND THE UKMET OFFICE MODEL IS UNDER-FORECASTING THE INTERACTION. BASED ON THE HIGH PROBABILITY OF COMPENSATING ERROR MECHANISMS, OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z1 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z2 AND 212100Z6.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20020221 09:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUILLAUME) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 210600Z9 --- NEAR 24.1S7 60.5E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.1S7 60.5E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z2 --- 26.3S1 62.3E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z0 --- 28.8S8 64.6E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z3 --- 30.4S7 67.8E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 17 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z1 --- 32.1S6 71.2E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 210900Z2 POSITION NEAR 24.6S2 60.9E5. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GUILLAUME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 210530Z1 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 75, 90, AND 102 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 15S HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS AS MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES ARE IMPINGING VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE SYSTEM. TC 15S IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 15S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS AND THEN TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE RIDGE. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDE THE UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR), NGPS, GFDN, AND AVIATION (AVN) MODELS. THE AIDS AGREE IN DIRECTION OF MOTION BUT DIFFER IN TERMS OF SPEED. THE PRINCIPLE DIFFERENCE IN THE AIDS IS THE STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING LOW-LEVEL MID-LATITUDE RIDGE. AVN AND EGRR INDICATE THE RIDGE IS STRONG AND WILL ACT TO IMPEDE TC 15S FROM PROGRESSING TO THE SOUTHEAST. GFDN AND NGPS SUGGEST THAT RIDGE IS WEAK AND AS A RESULT HAVE TC 15S TRACKING FASTER DOWNSTREAM. TC 15S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS BENEATH MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INTO COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPS. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z9 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z6 AND 220900Z3.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20020221 21:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUILLAUME) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 211800Z2 --- NEAR 26.2S0 62.1E9 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 26.2S0 62.1E9 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z0 --- 27.9S8 64.1E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z3 --- 29.5S6 66.5E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z1 --- 31.2S6 69.8E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 18 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z4 --- 32.8S3 73.6E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 212100Z6 POSITION NEAR 26.6S4 62.6E4. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GUILLAUME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 211730Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 15S HAS WEAKENED DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC 15S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE MID-PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION HAS BEGUN AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO HAVE COMPLETED EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDE THE UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR), NGPS, GFDN, AND AVIATION (AVN) MODELS. THE MODELS FORECAST THE SAME TRACK DIRECTION FOR TC 15S, BUT DIVERGE IN THEIR FORECAST SPEEDS WITH GFDN REMAINING THE FASTEST. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE NGPS AND EGRR MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z2 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z3 AND 222100Z7.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20020222 09:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUILLAUME) WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220600Z0 --- NEAR 26.1S9 62.3E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 26.1S9 62.3E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z3 --- 26.6S4 63.6E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z1 --- 27.1S0 65.0E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 220900Z3 POSITION NEAR 26.2S0 62.6E4. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GUILLAUME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED EAST SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 220530Z2 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 15S HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM IS SHEARED BY THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC 15S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDE THE UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR), NGPS, GFDN, AND AVIATION (AVN) MODELS. THE MODELS AGREE IN TRACK DIRECTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR TC 15S, BUT DIFFER IN FORECAST SPEED, WITH GFDN REMAINING THE FASTEST. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS MINUS GFDN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNING IS AT 222100Z7.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20020222 21:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUILLAUME) WARNING NR 017 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 221800Z3 --- NEAR 26.4S2 64.0E0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 26.4S2 64.0E0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z1 --- 26.8S6 65.7E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 222100Z7 POSITION NEAR 26.5S3 64.4E4. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GUILLAUME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 520 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 221730Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 15S HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED BY THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC 15S IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO A WEAKNESS OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z3 IS 15 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
Document: tropical_cyclone_guillaume_jtwc_advisories.htm
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