Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone KESINY : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2001-2002 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone KESINY Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20020503 06:30z
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020951Z MAY 02//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 021000)//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
185 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.8S4 64.9E9 TO 13.7S1 66.3E5
WITHIN THE NEXT 03 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
030600Z9 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.7S5
65.3E4. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS: THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 7.4S1 62.2E0 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7S5 65.3E4,
APPROXIMATELY 440 NM WEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR
ANIMATION DEPICTS CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION AND INCREASED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM
HAS CONSOLIDATED IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND TRACKED FURTHER EASTWARD THAN ANTICIPATED UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF STRONG EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES. THE 200 MB
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS UNDER A REGION OF STRONG DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
040630Z3.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020503 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z9 --- NEAR 8.8S6 65.3E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.8S6 65.3E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 9.6S5 66.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 10.8S9 65.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 11.4S6 64.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 12.0S3 63.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030900Z2 POSITION NEAR 9.0S9 65.5E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM WEST OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 030530Z1 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICT IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND INCREASED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE 200 MB
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 23S REMAINS EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS UNDER A REGION OF STRONG DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z9 IS 12 FEET. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 030621Z2 MAY 02
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 030630) NEXT WARNINGS
AT 032100Z6 AND 040900Z3.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020503 21:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z2 --- NEAR 9.8S7 65.9E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.8S7 65.9E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 10.7S8 65.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 11.5S7 64.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 12.2S5 63.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 13.0S4 62.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
032100Z6 POSITION NEAR 10.0S1 65.8E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S, LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS
TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
031730Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATING 35 KNOTS. ENHANCED INFRARED ANIMATION
AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEGUN
BUILDING OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
SITUATED SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA IS FORECAST TO BUILD THROUGH THE
PERIOD CREATING A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD STEERING MOTION FOR TC 23S.
AVAILABLE NWP AGREE WITH A TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS MORNINGS 200
MB ANAL REVEALED WEAK CYCLONIC OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM. TC 23S
SHOULD INTENSIFY AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS BENEATH THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z2 IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z3 AND 042100Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020504 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KESINY) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z0 --- NEAR 10.1S2 66.4E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.1S2 66.4E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 10.8S9 66.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 11.5S7 65.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 12.0S3 63.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 12.3S6 62.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040900Z3 POSITION NEAR 10.3S4 66.3E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KESINY), LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO
GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 040530Z2 MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS
INDICATING 40 KNOTS. VISIBLE SATELLITE ANIMATION AND RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
REMAINS DECOUPLED EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
SITUATED SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA IS FORECAST TO BUILD THROUGH THE
PERIOD CREATING A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD STEERING MOTION FOR TC 23S.
AVAILABLE NWP AGREE WITH A TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS EVENINGS 200
MB ANAL REVEALED A NARROW RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SYSTEM. TC 23S SHOULD
SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS BENEATH THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z0 IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 042100Z7 AND 050900Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020504 21:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KESINY) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z3 --- NEAR 10.1S2 65.8E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.1S2 65.8E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 10.5S6 64.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 10.9S0 63.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 11.2S4 62.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 11.4S6 60.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
042100Z7 POSITION NEAR 10.2S3 65.5E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KESINY), LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO
GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 041730Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY AND A 041730Z5 SSM/I PASS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS. USE OF THE
37 GHZ CHANNEL ON THE SSM/I PASS HELPED TO PINPOINT THE VORTEX. THE
MAJORITY OF THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS DECOUPLED TO THE
WEST. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND A MID-LAT LOW MOVING
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA SHOULD INFLUENCE THE TRACK
OF TC 23S THROUGH THE PERIOD. A BLEND OF AVAILABLE NWP (NOGAPS,
UKMET SPECTRAL, GFDN, AVN, AFWA MESOSCALE MM5) WAS USED AS A BASIS
FOR OUR FORECAST. TC 23S SHOULD SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS BENEATH A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z3 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z4 AND
052100Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020505 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KESINY) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z1 --- NEAR 10.1S2 64.3E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.1S2 64.3E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 10.3S4 63.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 10.7S8 61.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 11.1S3 60.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 11.4S6 59.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050900Z4 POSITION NEAR 10.1S2 64.0E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KESINY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 860 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF NORTHERN MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
050530Z3 MULTI-SPECTRAL AND RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 45 KNOTS. VISIBLE SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS THAT THE MAJORITY OF
THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS DECOUPLED TO THE WEST. A MID-
LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN A WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD. A BLEND OF AVAILABLE NWP
(NOGAPS, UKMET SPECTRAL, GFDN, AVN, AFWA MESOSCALE MM5) WAS USED AS
A BASIS FOR OUR FORECAST. TC 23S SHOULD TRACK UNDERNEATH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, BUT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY DUE TO
INHIBITED OUTFLOW AND LACK OF ORGANIZATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 050600Z1 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z8 AND
060900Z5.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020505 21:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KESINY) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z4 --- NEAR 10.4S5 62.3E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.4S5 62.3E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 10.9S0 60.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 11.3S5 59.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 11.3S5 57.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 11.3S5 55.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
052100Z8 POSITION NEAR 10.5S6 61.9E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KESINY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 745 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 051730Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. ENHANCED INFRARED ANIMATION AND
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT THAT THE VORTEX HAS TUCKED FURTHER
BENEATH THE DEEP CONVECTION. THAT, AND IMPROVED VENTILATION OVER THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM, HAS HELPED THE INTENSIFICATION
TREND. A BUILDING MID-LEVEL HIGH POSITIONED SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR
SHOULD INFLUENCE A GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A BLEND OF AVAILABLE NWP (NOGAPS, UKMET SPECTRAL, GFDN, AVN,
AFWA MESOSCALE MM5) WAS USED AS A BASIS FOR OUR FORECAST. AN
IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN OR SLIGHTLY
INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z4 IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z5 AND 062100Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020506 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KESINY) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z2 --- NEAR 10.6S7 61.0E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.6S7 61.0E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 10.7S8 59.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 10.5S6 57.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 10.4S5 56.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 10.6S7 54.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060900Z5 POSITION NEAR 10.6S7 60.6E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KESINY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 680 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 7 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 060530Z4 MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 TO 65 KNOTS,
AND A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATING 65 TO 70 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHERN
SECTOR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED VENTILATION
NORTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. AN EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALED A POSSIBLE BANDING EYE FEATURE AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER HAS TUCKED IN NEAR THE DEEP CONVECTION. A BUILDING MID-LEVEL
HIGH POSITIONED SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR SHOULD INFLUENCE A GENERALLY
WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD. A BLEND OF AVAILABLE NWP (NOGAPS,
UKMET SPECTRAL, GFDN, AVN, AFWA MESOSCALE MM5) WAS USED AS A BASIS
FOR OUR FORECAST. A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SHOULD HELP TO
MAINTAIN OR SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z2 IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z9 AND 070900Z6.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020506 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KESINY) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z5 --- NEAR 10.9S0 60.1E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S0 60.1E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 11.1S3 59.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 11.1S3 57.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 11.2S4 55.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 11.3S5 53.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
062100Z9 POSITION NEAR 11.0S2 59.8E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KESINY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM
EAST OF THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 061730Z7 INFRARED IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 TO
65 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND A WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. A BLEND OF AVAILABLE NWP
(NOGAPS, UKMET SPECTRAL, GFDN, AVN) WAS USED AS A BASIS FOR OUR
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z5 IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z6 AND 072100Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020507 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KESINY) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z3 --- NEAR 10.9S0 59.2E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S0 59.2E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 10.9S0 57.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 11.1S3 55.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 11.2S4 53.7E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 11.5S7 51.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070900Z6 POSITION NEAR 10.9S0 58.8E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KESINY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 590 NM
EAST OF THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
070530Z5 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45
AND 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS WEAKENING OUTFLOW
CONDITIONS IN BOTH EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD CHANNELS. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS GUIDED BY THE LOW TO MID
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOWLY
INTENSIFY AS AN APPROACHING TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPROVE THE OUTFLOW
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE AIDS CONSISTING
OF THE NOGAPS, UKMET SPECTRAL, GFDN, AND AVIATION MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z
IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z0 AND 080900Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020507 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KESINY) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z6 --- NEAR 11.5S7 57.9E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.5S7 57.9E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 11.9S1 56.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 12.4S7 54.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 12.6S9 52.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 12.9S2 51.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
072100Z0 POSITION NEAR 11.6S8 57.5E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KESINY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
EAST OF THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 071730Z8 ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45
KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS WEAKENING CONVECTION IN
ALL QUADRANTS AND POOR OUTFLOW CONDITIONS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS GUIDED BY THE LOW TO MID
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE AIDS
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET SPECTRAL, GFDN, AND AVIATION MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z6
IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z7 AND 082100Z1.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020508 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KESINY) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z4 --- NEAR 11.8S0 55.5E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S0 55.5E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 12.3S6 53.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 12.7S0 52.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 13.0S4 50.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 13.2S6 48.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
---
REMARKS:
080900Z7 POSITION NEAR 11.9S1 55.1E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KESINY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM
EAST OF THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
081730Z9 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35
AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A RESURGENCE OF CONVECTION
IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SUGGESTS ZONAL WESTWARD OUTFLOW HAS AIDED THE RECENT BURST OF
CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
GUIDED BY A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET SPECTRAL,
GFDN, AND AVIATION MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE FORECAST IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
082100Z1 AND 090900Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020508 21:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KESINY) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z7 --- NEAR 12.0S3 53.1E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S3 53.1E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 12.2S5 51.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 12.5S8 49.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 12.8S1 48.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 13.0S4 46.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
082100Z1 POSITION NEAR 12.0S3 52.7E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KESINY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
EAST OF THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
081730Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT INCREASED OUTFLOW FROM THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE HAS AIDED THE RECENT BURST OF CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD GUIDED BY A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS RECENT SHORT TERM TREND OF
INTENSIFICATION WILL GIVE WAY IN THE MID PERIOD TO A SLOW WEAKENING
OF THE SYSTEM AS IT PASSES THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR,
INTERACTING WITH LAND. THE AVAILABLE AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
UKMET SPECTRAL, GFDN, AND AVIATION MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z7 IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090900Z8 AND 092100Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020509 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KESINY) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z5 --- NEAR 12.4S7 51.2E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S7 51.2E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 12.5S8 .6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 12.6S9 48.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 12.5S8 46.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 12.2S5 45.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090900Z8 POSITION NEAR 12.4S7 50.8E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KESINY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM
EAST OF THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
090530Z7 MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 TO 65 KNOTS.
RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS A DEVELOPING BANDING EYE FEATURE.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT AN
AREA OF POINT DIFFLUENCE OVER THE SYSTEM HAS AIDED INTENSIFICATION
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD
GUIDED BY A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM. THIS RECENT SHORT TERM TREND OF INTENSIFICATION WILL GIVE
WAY IN THE MID PERIOD TO A SLOW WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AS IT PASSES
THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR, INTERACTING WITH LAND. THE AVAILABLE
AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET SPECTRAL, GFDN, AND AVIATION MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z
IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z2 AND 100900Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020509 21:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KESINY) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z8 --- NEAR 12.8S1 49.0E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S1 49.0E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 13.0S4 47.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 13.1S5 46.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 13.1S5 45.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 12.8S1 44.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
092100Z2 POSITION NEAR 12.8S1 48.7E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KESINY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY ON THE
WEST COAST OF THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 091730Z0 ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 TO
55 KNOTS. RECENT INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE
BANDING EYE FEATURE HAS DISSIPATED. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND IMAGERY
INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF POINT DIFFLUENCE OVER THE SYSTEM HAS AIDED
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK WESTWARD GUIDED BY A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY IN THE
SHORT TERM AS IT LEAVES THE MADAGASCAR COAST AND TRAVELS WESTWARD
OVER WATER IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THIS WILL GIVE WAY IN THE MID
PERIOD TO A SLOW WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AS UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
DIMINISHES AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. THE
AVAILABLE AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET SPECTRAL, GFDN, AND
AVIATION MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A
BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 091800Z8 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z0 AND
102100Z4. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (ERROL) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR 12 HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020510 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KESINY) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z7 --- NEAR 13.6S0 47.1E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S0 47.1E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 13.8S2 46.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 14.0S5 45.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 14.1S6 44.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 14.0S5 43.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
100900Z0 POSITION NEAR 13.6S0 46.9E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KESINY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM
WEST OF MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 100530Z9
MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD GUIDED BY A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY IN
THE SHORT TERM AS IT LEAVES THE MADAGASCAR COAST AND TRAVELS
WESTWARD OVER WATER IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THIS WILL GIVE WAY
NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD TO A SLOW WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AS
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW DIMINISHES. THE AVAILABLE AIDS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN, WHICH INDICATES A SOUTHWARD
TRACK. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS EXCLUDING GFDN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z7 IS
15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z4 AND 110900Z1. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 24S (ERROL) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020510 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KESINY) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z0 --- NEAR 15.2S8 46.9E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S8 46.9E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 16.0S7 46.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 16.5S2 45.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 16.9S6 44.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 17.2S0 43.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
102100Z4 POSITION NEAR 15.4S0 46.7E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KESINY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50 NM
NORTHEAST OF MAHAJANGA, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 101730Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD GUIDED BY A LOW-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT TRAVELS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF
MADAGASCAR. THE AVAILABLE AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF GFDN, WHICH CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SOUTHWARD TRACK.
OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
AND THE SHALLOW BAROTROPIC ADVECTION MODEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 101800Z0 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z1 AND
112100Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (ERROL) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020511 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KESINY) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z8 --- NEAR 15.8S4 46.9E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S4 46.9E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 16.1S8 46.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 16.3S0 46.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 16.4S1 45.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 16.5S2 45.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
110900Z1 POSITION NEAR 15.9S5 46.8E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KESINY) MADE LANDFALL AT (APPROX)
101830Z3, JUST 40 NM NORTHEAST OF MAHAJANGA, MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS.
TC 23S HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 110530Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD, GUIDED BY A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
110600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z5 AND 120900Z2. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (ERROL) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020511 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KESINY) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z1 --- NEAR 15.9S5 46.9E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S5 46.9E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 16.2S9 46.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
112100Z5 POSITION NEAR 6.2S8 95.0E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KESINY) REMAINS INLAND TO THE NORTHEAST
OF MAHAJANGA, MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT
25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
111730Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS AND ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. TC 23S IS
FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD AND DISSIPATE OVER LAND. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z1 IS 10 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (ERROL) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_kesiny_jtwc_advisories.htm
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