Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone 200421 : JTWC Advisories |
Season 2003-2004 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
---> Tropical Cyclone 200421 Track Map and Data |
WTXS33 PGTW 20040323 21:00z RTD MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNING NR 001 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z4 --- NEAR 8.5S3 56.0E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 8.5S3 56.0E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z2 --- 8.6S4 56.1E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z5 --- 8.9S7 55.9E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z3 --- 9.5S4 55.4E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z6 --- 10.1S2 54.9E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 232100Z8 POSITION NEAR 8.5S3 56.0E1. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S, IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 825 NM NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, AND HAS BEEN QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 231730Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS AND QUIKSCAT WINDS DEPICTING 35 TO 40 KNOTS NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 21S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND THEN BEGIN TO TRACK POLEWARD LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A LOW TO MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL STEERING RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THEN INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AFTER 12 TO 24 HOURS AS TWO OF THE THREE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS PREDICT VERY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW CONDITIONS TO OCCUR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, WBAR, AND EGRR ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. NOGAPS INITIALIZES ON TC 21S AS A VERY WEAK SYSTEM AND DOES NOT EXPECT IT TO DEVELOP MUCH DUE TO A FORECASTED ENVIRONMENT OF LINEAR FLOW ALOFT AND MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF EGRR, WBAI AND GFS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON NOGAPS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z4 IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z5 AND 242100Z9. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (FAY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS33 PGTW 20040324 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNING NR 002 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240600Z2 --- NEAR 8.6S4 56.1E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 8.6S4 56.1E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z5 --- 8.8S6 55.9E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z3 --- 9.1S0 55.6E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z6 --- 9.6S5 55.5E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z4 --- 10.1S2 55.3E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 240900Z5 POSITION NEAR 8.6S4 56.1E2. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S, IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 835 NM NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, AND HAS BEEN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 240530Z4 MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS AND QUIKSCAT WINDS DEPICTING 35 TO 40 KNOTS NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE LLCC IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE, THUS THE SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE INTENSIFIED IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 21S SHOULD REMAIN QUASI- STATIONARY IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE FIRST 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER, IT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD AS THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WEAKENS, AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST PROVIDES THE DOMINANT STEERING FLOW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS TC 21S IS LOCATED UNDERNEATH UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLIES FROM A RIDGE TO THE WEST, WHICH IS INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT. SINCE 21S IS SO DISORGANIZED AT THIS POINT, AND CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER, IT SHOULD INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE UNDER IMPROVING OUTFLOW CONDITIONS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, WBAR, AND EGRR ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z2 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z9 AND 250900Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (FAY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (OSCAR) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS33 PGTW 20040324 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNING NR 003 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 241200Z9 --- NEAR 8.7S5 56.1E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 8.7S5 56.1E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z7 --- 9.0S9 55.8E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 241500Z2 POSITION NEAR 8.8S6 56.0E1. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S, IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 835 NM NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, AND HAS BEEN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 241130Z1 MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT A SINGLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) CONTINUES TO BE VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE, WHICH IS CONCLUSIVE EVIDENCE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS YET TO BEGIN TO DEVELOP. UPPER LEVEL AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS DISSIPATED DUE TO HIGH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTIAL WIND SHEAR AND LACK OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z9 IS 12FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT SO THE REMNANTS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (FAY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (OSCAR) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE- HOURLY UPDATES.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
Document: tropical_cyclone_200421_jtwc_advisories.htm
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