WTPS21 PGTW 20040407 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 071451ZAPR2004//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.7S2 173.6E7 TO
17.5S3 178.7E3 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA
DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS
AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35
KNOTS. MET SAT IMAGERY AT 071130Z2 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.9S4 174.1E3. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
EAST-SOUTH EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY NEAR 14.6S1 173.5E6, IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 14.9S4 174.1E3, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM NORTHWEST OF
SUVA, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
DEEP CYCLING CONVECTION INCREASING OVER A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE
ZONE. A RECENT 070818Z4 QUIKSCAT REVEALS AN ORGANIZED CIRCULATION
WITH 30 KNOT WINDS. A RECENT 071001Z9 MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS
CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC WITH SPIRAL BANDS BEGINNING TO FORM. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSES DEPICT A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK TO MODERATE
VERTICAL SHEAR WITH SOME OUTFLOW IN THE POLEWARD DIRECTION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 081500Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20040407 21:00z COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/071451ZAPR2004//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P WARNING NR 001A CORRECTED
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071800Z6 --- NEAR 16.1S8 175.9E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S8 175.9E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z4 --- 17.2S0 178.1E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z7 --- 18.5S4 179.7W4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z5 --- 19.9S9 177.9W4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z8 --- 21.3S6 176.3W7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
072100Z0 POSITION NEAR 16.4S1  176.5E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P, IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN AND HAS BEEN
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 12 KNOTS OVER OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 071730Z8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 30 KNOTS AND QUIKSCAT WINDS DEPICTING 35 TO 40 KNOTS NEAR THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST IN A STRONG STEERING ENVIRONMENT. TC 22P IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY BRIEFLY BEFORE IT GETS ABSORBED BY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 09 FEET. DYNAMIC AIDS WERE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 071451Z APR 04 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 071500 ) NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z7 AND 082100Z1.
JUSTIFICATION FOR COR: CORRECTED SUBJECT LINE, REF, AND AMPN LINE.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20040408 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   080000Z8 --- NEAR 16.8S5 176.8E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S5 176.8E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z1 --- 18.6S5 178.3E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z9 --- 20.5S7 179.7W4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z2 --- 22.6S0 177.1W6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z1 --- 24.5S1 174.3W5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
080300Z1 POSITION NEAR 17.3S1 177.2E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P, IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM
NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN AND HAS BEEN
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 11 KNOTS OVER OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 072330Z5 MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST
IN A STRONG STEERING ENVIRONMENT. TC 22P IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
BRIEFLY BEFORE AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEGINS LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z4 AND 090300Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20040408 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   080600Z4 --- NEAR 18.1S0 178.7E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S0 178.7E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z7 --- 20.6S8 179.0W7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z5 --- 23.5S0 177.2W7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z8 --- 25.9S6 174.3W5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 23 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z7 --- 28.8S8 170.2W0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
080900Z7 POSITION NEAR 18.7S6 179.3E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P, IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 15 NM
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF SUVA, FIJI IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN AND HAS
BEEN MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 080530Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. LATEST 200 MB ANALYSIS DEPICT WEAK TO MODERATE WIND
SHEAR AND WEAK OUTFLOW. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST
AND START TO INTERRACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES BY TAU 36. BY
TAU 48, TC 22P WILL COMPLETE ITS TRANSITION TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z1 AND 090900Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20040408 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   081800Z7 --- NEAR 19.6S6 179.3W0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S6 179.3W0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z5 --- 21.5S8 177.4W9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z8 --- 24.3S9 174.6W8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 20 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z7 --- 26.9S7 171.3W2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 25 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z0 --- 29.2S3 166.2W5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
082100Z1 POSITION NEAR 20.1S3 178.8W4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P, IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF SUVA, FIJI IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN AND HAS
BEEN MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 081730Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. A 081807Z4 MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION COMPLETELY DECOUPLED FROM CONVECTION. TC 22P IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST UNDER STRONG UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
STEERING AND WILL BECOME AN EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 48.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVEHEIGHT AT 081800Z7 IS 11 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z8 AND 092100Z2.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20040409 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   090600Z5 --- NEAR 21.5S8 177.5W0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S8 177.5W0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z8 --- 24.3S9 174.6W8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
090900Z8 POSITION NEAR 22.2S6 176.8W2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P, IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTHEAST
OF SUVA, FIJI IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN AND HAS BEEN MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 090530Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. A RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION COMPLETELY DECOUPLED FROM CONVECTION. TC 22P IS CURRENTLY
UNDERGOING TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. TC 22P WILL
COMPLETE THIS TRANSITION BY TAU 12. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 090600Z5 IS 10 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_200422_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]