Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone ABAIMBA : JTWC Advisories |
Season 2003-2004 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
---> Tropical Cyclone ABAIMBA Track Map and Data |
WTXS31 PGTW 20030929 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/290921ZSEP2003// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 291800Z0 --- NEAR 4.5S9 64.2E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 01 KT POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 4.5S9 64.2E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z9 --- 4.7S1 64.3E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z2 --- 4.9S3 64.3E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z7 --- 5.1S6 64.1E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z0 --- 5.3S8 63.7E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: 292100Z4 POSITION NEAR 4.5S9 64.2E2. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 505 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS BEEN NEAR QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 291806Z6 AMSU SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CYCLING CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN SIDE WHILE THE QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) JUST EAST OF THE CONVECTION. TC 01S IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR QUASI- STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS DUE TO LACK OF STEERING FLOW. TC 01S IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A SLOW RATE DUE TO WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT. MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AREAS ARE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF TC 01S. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z4 IS 08 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 290921Z3 SEP 03 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 290930). NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z2 AND 302100Z6.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20030930 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 300600Z9 --- NEAR 4.6S0 65.0E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 4.6S0 65.0E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z2 --- 5.0S5 65.1E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z7 --- 5.2S7 64.7E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z0 --- 5.3S8 64.2E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z8 --- 5.4S9 63.7E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM --- REMARKS: 300900Z2 POSITION NEAR 4.7S1 65.0E1. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 300606Z5 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. TC 01S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDER WEAK STEERING FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THEN SLOWLY TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AS THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. TC 01S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A SLOW RATE DUE TO WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z9 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z6 AND 010900Z0.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20030930 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 301800Z2 --- NEAR 4.6S0 65.9E0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 4.6S0 65.9E0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z7 --- 4.9S3 66.2E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z0 --- 5.2S7 66.0E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z8 --- 5.5S0 65.3E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z1 --- 6.0S6 63.7E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM --- REMARKS: 302100Z6 POSITION NEAR 4.7S1 66.0E2. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON ENHANCED INFRARED AND A 301510Z0 SSMI SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 35 KNOTS. EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALED A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. TC 01S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDER WEAK STEERING FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THEN SHIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AS THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. TC 01S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A SLOW RATE THROUGH 24 HOURS DUE TO WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. EXPECT A MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AFTER 24 HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS IMPROVE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z2 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z0 AND 012100Z4.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20031001 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ABAIMBA) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010600Z7 --- NEAR 4.4S8 65.9E0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 4.4S8 65.9E0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z0 --- 4.7S1 65.7E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z8 --- 5.0S5 65.4E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z1 --- 5.4S9 64.6E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z9 --- 6.1S7 62.9E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 010900Z0 POSITION NEAR 4.5S9 65.8E9. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ABAIMBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWEST AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 010530Z9 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS AND A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS NO LONGER EXPOSED. TC 01S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST UNDER WEAK STEERING FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, TC 01S WILL BEGIN TO STEADILY INCREASE IN TRACK SPEED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE AS IT BEGINS TO BUILD IN. TC 01S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A MODERATE RATE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z7 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z4 AND 020900Z1.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20031001 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ABAIMBA) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 011800Z0 --- NEAR 5.1S6 66.0E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 5.1S6 66.0E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z8 --- 5.8S3 65.3E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z1 --- 6.4S0 64.1E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z9 --- 6.8S4 62.5E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z2 --- 7.3S0 60.5E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 012100Z4 POSITION NEAR 5.3S8 65.8E9. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ABAIMBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWEST AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 011730Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR AND LATEST CIMSS U/L CHART REVEALS WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH CONTINUED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. LATEST ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SLIGHT INFILTRATION OF COOLER AIR INTO THE WESTERN SIDE OF TC 01S. TC 01S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST UNDER THE WEAK STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TRACK SPEED THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE STEERING RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGHTHEN. TC 01S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE COOLER AIR COUNTERACTS WITH THE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z0 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z1 AND 022100Z5.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20031002 15:00z AMD MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ABAIMBA) WARNING NR 006A AMENDED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 021200Z5 --- NEAR 5.7S2 67.7E0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 5.7S2 67.7E0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z3 --- 6.0S6 68.8E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z6 --- 6.8S4 69.2E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z4 --- 7.3S0 68.3E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z7 --- 7.5S2 67.0E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 021500Z8 POSITION NEAR 5.8S3 68.0E4. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ABAIMBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 021130Z7 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 01S REMAINS PARTIALLY EXPOSED, HOWEVER, DEEP CYCLING CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO BUILD BACK OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 01S REMAINS WEAK AND CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW. WHILE THE FOUR AVAILABLE MODELS OF EGGR, NOGAPS, GFDN, AND NCEP GFS VARY IN INTENSITY SOLUTION, THEY ALL AGREE THAT TC 01S WILL TRANSITION SOON TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING LOW TO MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 01S IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO THIS STEERING ENVIRONMENT IN 12 TO 24 HOURS AND BEGIN TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEW STEERING RIDGE. TC 01C WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK BUT THEN SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD AND ENCOUNTERS A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. JUSTIFICATION FOR AMENDMENT: ADJUSTED FORECASTED TRACK AND INTENSITIES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z5 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z6 AND 031500Z9.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20031002 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ABAIMBA) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 021800Z1 --- NEAR 5.7S2 67.7E0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 5.7S2 67.7E0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z9 --- 6.1S7 68.5E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z2 --- 6.8S4 68.7E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z0 --- 7.4S1 67.8E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z3 --- 7.7S4 66.0E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 022100Z5 POSITION NEAR 5.8S3 67.9E2. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ABAIMBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 021730Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR AND RECENT AMSU SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 01S CONTINUES TO REMAIN WEAK AND DISORGANIZED. LACK OF UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND COOL AIR ADVECTION INTO THE WESTERN SIDE OF TC 01S ARE THE MAIN CAUSES FOR THE DISORGANIZATION OF TC 01S. TC 01S CONTINUES TO TRACK VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW. TC 01S IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK WITHIN 24 HOURS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE BUILDING OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. ALL AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS DO NOT HANDLE THE CURRENT STEERING ENVIRONMENT WELL. THEREFORE, OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS, AND THEN A BLEND OF THE MODELS THROUGH 48 HOURS. TC 01C WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK BUT THEN SLOWLY INTENSIFY, AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE, AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD AND ENCOUNTERS A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z1 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z2 AND 032100Z6.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20031003 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ABAIMBA) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 030600Z9 --- NEAR 6.2S8 67.0E3 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 6.2S8 67.0E3 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z2 --- 6.4S0 66.6E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z0 --- 6.5S1 66.0E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z3 --- 6.5S1 65.2E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z1 --- 6.7S3 63.7E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 030900Z2 POSITION NEAR 6.3S9 66.9E1. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ABAIMBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 030530Z1 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 01S IS BEGINNING TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND APPEARS TO HAVE TRANSITIONED TO A MORE POLEWARD TRACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 01S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS NEW STEERING RIDGE. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS OF GFDN, NOGAPS, EGRR, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. WITH EGRR BEING A SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER. EGRR BARELY INITIALIZES ON THE SYSTEM AND PROJECTS AN UNREALISTIC TRACK BACK TOWARDS THE EQUATOR. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE DYNAMIC MODELS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON EGRR. TC 01S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT MOVES TOWARDS AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASED OUTFLOW ALOFT AND DECREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z9 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z6 AND 040900Z3.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20031003 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ABAIMBA) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 031800Z2 --- NEAR 6.8S4 66.6E8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 6.8S4 66.6E8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z0 --- 6.9S5 65.6E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z3 --- 7.0S7 64.2E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z1 --- 7.1S8 62.9E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z4 --- 7.3S0 61.5E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 032100Z6 POSITION NEAR 6.8S4 66.3E5. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ABAIMBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM WEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 031715Z7 SSMI AND 031730Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR AND A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS THAT TC 01S CONTINUES TO REMAIN WEAK AND DISORGANIZED. TC 01S IS TRANSITIONING TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 01S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS NEW STEERING RIDGE. THE AVAIL- ABLE NUMERICAL MODELS OF NOGAPS, EGRR, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. EGRR IS NOW INITIALIZING BETTER ON THE MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL THE DYNAMIC MODELS. TC 01S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGHOUT THE FORE- CAST PERIOD DUE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z2 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z3 AND 042100Z7.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20031004 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ABAIMBA) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 040600Z0 --- NEAR 7.4S1 65.5E6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 7.4S1 65.5E6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z3 --- 7.6S3 64.1E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z1 --- 7.6S3 62.7E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z4 --- 7.5S2 61.3E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z2 --- 7.4S1 60.0E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 040900Z3 POSITION NEAR 7.4S1 65.1E2. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ABAIMBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM WEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 040530Z2 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR REVEALS AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 01S HAS TRANSITIONED TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 01S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE EQUATORWARD PERIPHERY OF THIS STEERING RIDGE. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL THE DYNAMIC MODELS. TC 01S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z0 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z7 AND 050900Z4.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20031004 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ABAIMBA) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 041800Z3 --- NEAR 6.6S2 64.4E4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 6.6S2 64.4E4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z1 --- 6.5S1 63.3E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 042100Z7 POSITION NEAR 6.6S2 64.1E1. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ABAIMBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM WEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 041730Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEAL THAT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. THE REMNANTS OF TC 01S ARE FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE EQUATORWARD PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z3 IS 16 FEET. CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO REFORM OVER THIS SYSTEM. THEREFORE, THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.// =========================================================================
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
Document: tropical_cyclone_abaimba_jtwc_advisories.htm
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