Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone CELA : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2003-2004 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone CELA Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20031204 23:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 042251ZDEC2003//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.8S9 64.9E9 TO 14.1S6 61.3E0
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 042130Z0 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.2S4 64.6E6. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.8S9 64.9E9 IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.4S6 63.8E7, APPROXIMATELY 580 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED AND RECENT
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS, IS NO LONGER
CYCLIC AND IS MORE ORGANIZED, WITH IMPROVING OUTFLOW IN THE
POLEWARD DIRECTION. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE TO GOOD
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE REGION.
MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON
CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS NOW UPGRADED TO GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 052300Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031205 21:00z COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/042251ZDEC2003//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S WARNING NR 001A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z4 --- NEAR 11.6S8 61.4E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6S8 61.4E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 12.1S4 59.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 12.9S2 57.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 13.3S7 55.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 13.5S9 54.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM
---
REMARKS:
052100Z8 POSITION NEAR 11.7S9 60.9E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 690 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 051730Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
30 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE APPROACH OF A MAJOR SHORTWAVE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST IS BEGINNING TO ENHANCE THE P0LEWARD OUTFLOW ALLOWING
TC 03S TO INTENSIFY TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. TC 03S IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE LOW TO MID
LEVEL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN TRANSITION
TO A MORE WESTERLY TRACK LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SHORTWAVE
IS REPLACED BY A TRANSITORY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. SLOW BUT STEADY
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO
THE ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW EARLY AND THE EXPECTATION THAT TC 03S
WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF UKMET
(EGRR), NCEP GFS, AND WBAI ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO;
THE NOGAPS MODEL WAS NOT AVAILABLE FOR THIS CONSENSUS. THIS FORECAST
IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z4 IS 8 FEET. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 042251Z DEC 2003 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 042300). NEXT WARNINGS AT
060900Z5 AND 062100Z9. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: ADDED IMMEDIATE
DELIVERY TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031206 09:00z
UNCLAS //N03145//
PASS TO OFFICE CODES:
PSBR BCST //SID 80//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z2 --- NEAR 11.9S1 60.3E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S1 60.3E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 12.2S5 59.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 12.7S0 57.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 13.0S4 56.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 13.2S6 54.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM
---
REMARKS:
060900Z5 POSITION NEAR 12.0S3 60.0E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 520 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 060530Z4 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
25, 30 AND 35 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE APPROACH OF
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY ENHANCE POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
THEREBY DEEPENING THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY. TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE LOW TO MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 03S WILL THEN TRANSITION TO A MORE
WESTERLY TRACK LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SHORTWAVE IS
REPLACED BY A TRANSITORY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE ENHANCED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 03S WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF UKMET (EGRR), NCEP GFS, NOGAPS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND
A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 060600Z2 IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z9 AND 070900Z6.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031206 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z5 --- NEAR 12.5S8 59.1E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S8 59.1E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 13.2S6 57.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 13.6S0 56.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 13.7S1 54.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 13.6S0 52.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM
---
REMARKS:
062100Z9 POSITION NEAR 12.7S0 58.7E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 061730Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR AND ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT DEEP CYCLING CONVECTION IS
INCREASING SLIGHTLY IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OVER A WELL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. SLOW BUT STEADY
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD
DUE TO THE EXPECTATION THAT TC 03S WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF UKMET (EGRR), NCEP GFS, GFDN, AND WBAI
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED
ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z5 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
070900Z6 AND 072100Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031207 09:00z
UNCLAS //N03145//
PASS TO OFFICE CODES:
PSBR BCST //SID 80//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z3 --- NEAR 13.1S5 57.9E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S5 57.9E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 13.5S9 56.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 13.6S0 54.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 13.6S0 53.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 13.6S0 51.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070900Z6 POSITION NEAR 13.2S6 57.5E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM NORTH OF
MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 070530Z5 VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. A 070458Z4 SSM/I DEPICTS THE DEEP
CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 03S IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS AND SLOWLY
INTENSIFY WHILE IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), NCEP GFS, GFDN, AND WBAI
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 070600Z3 IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z0 AND 080900Z7. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031207 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z6 --- NEAR 13.5S9 56.8E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S9 56.8E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 13.5S9 55.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 13.4S8 54.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 13.3S7 52.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 13.2S6 50.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
072100Z0 POSITION NEAR 13.5S9 56.5E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM NORTH OF
MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 071730Z8 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS AND A RECENT QUIKSCAT REPORT OF AN
UNFLAGGED 35 KNOT WIND. A 071733Z1 SSM/I DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION
OVERHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS AND SLOWLY INTENSIFY WHILE IN A
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. TC 03S SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS
REDUCED IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT BY INTERACTION WITH THE MADAGASCAR
COASTLINE. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET
(EGRR), NCEP GFS, GFDN, AND WBAI ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z6 IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z7 AND 082100Z1. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
04S (JANA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031208 09:00z
UNCLAS //N03145//
PASS TO OFFICE CODES:
PSBR BCST //SID 80//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CELA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z4 --- NEAR 13.5S9 54.9E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S9 54.9E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 13.4S8 53.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 13.3S7 51.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 13.4S8 50.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 13.6S0 49.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
080900Z7 POSITION NEAR 13.5S9 54.5E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CELA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM EAST
OF THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 080530Z6
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, BUT WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD
TOWARD MADAGASCAR AND MAKE LANDFALL IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH 24 HOURS WHILE IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH LAND. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), NCEP GFS,
GFDN, AND WBAI ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z4 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
082100Z1 AND 090900Z8. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (JANA) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031208 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CELA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z7 --- NEAR 13.5S9 53.1E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S9 53.1E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 13.4S8 51.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 13.4S8 49.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 13.7S1 47.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 14.1S6 46.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM
---
REMARKS:
082100Z1 POSITION NEAR 13.5S9 052.6E3. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 081800Z7 IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z8 AND 092100Z2.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (JANA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031209 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CELA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z5 --- NEAR 13.1S5 51.3E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S5 51.3E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 13.1S5 49.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 13.4S8 48.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 13.6S0 47.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 13.9S3 45.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
090900Z8 POSITION NEAR 13.1S5 51.0E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CELA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM EAST
OF THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 090530Z7
MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
CYCLE. A 090422Z7 MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS THAT THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS WEST OF THE CONVECTION. TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD TOWARD MADAGASCAR AND MAKE LANDFALL IN
06 TO 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY UNTIL
LANDFALL AND THEN SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH LAND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), GFDN, NCEP GFS, AND WBAR ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 090600Z5 IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z2 AND 100900Z0.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (JANA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031209 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CELA) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z8 --- NEAR 13.3S7 50.0E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S7 50.0E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 13.5S9 48.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 13.8S2 47.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 14.4S9 45.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 15.3S9 44.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
---
REMARKS:
092100Z2 POSITION NEAR 13.3S7 049.6E9. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 091800Z8 IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z0 AND 102100Z4.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (JANA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031210 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CELA) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z7 --- NEAR 14.1S6 47.2E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S6 47.2E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 14.7S2 46.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
100900Z0 POSITION NEAR 14.2S7 46.9E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CELA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50 NM WEST OF
NORTHERN MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 100530Z9 MULTI-SPECTRAL,
MICROWAVE, AND QUIKSCAT SATELLITE IMAGERY. AFTER TRACKING OVER MADAGASCAR,
TC 03S LOST ITS CENTRAL CONVECTION AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NO LONGER EVIDENT IN SURFACE ANALYSIS AND QUIKSCAT. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. TC 03S IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z7 IS
8 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS
OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (JANA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031210 21:00z RTD
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING REGENERATED//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CELA) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z0 --- NEAR 15.2S8 45.0E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S8 45.0E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 16.0S7 44.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 16.9S6 43.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 17.6S4 43.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 18.5S4 42.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM
---
REMARKS:
102100Z4 POSITION NEAR 15.4S0 44.8E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CELA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
101730Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS.
RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION
BEGINNING TO REGENERATE OVER THE OLD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF
TC 03S. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH GOOD
DIFFLUENCE AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR. TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW LEVEL STEERING
RIDGE TO THE EAST. AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS FOR TC 03S TO LINK UP WITH
THE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST, MAKE LANDFALL IN WESTERN
MADAGASCAR AND CEASE TO EXIST AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
LIMITED AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS AND NCEP GFS ARE
IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. NEITHER MODEL FORECASTS THE
SYSTEM TO REMAIN AT WARNING LEVEL STRENGTH. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z0 IS 08 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110900Z1 AND 112100Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (JANA) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031211 09:00z
UNCLAS //N03145//
PASS TO OFFICE CODES:
PSBR BCST //SID 80//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CELA) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z8 --- NEAR 15.8S4 43.6E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S4 43.6E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 16.4S1 42.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 16.9S6 42.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 17.5S3 42.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 18.1S0 41.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
---
REMARKS:
110900Z1 POSITION NEAR 15.9S5 43.4E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CELA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 55 NM WEST OF
MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 110530Z0 VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC
03S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A LOW LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH 36 HOURS WHILE OVER WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF UKMET (EGRR), NOGAPS AND
NCEP GFS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. EGRR TAKES THE SYSTEM
WESTWARD AND WEAKENS IT THROUGH THE PERIOD. NOGAPS AND GFS TRACK THE
SYSTEM POLEWARD, WEAKENING IT RAPIDLY. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z8 IS 08 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z5
AND 120900Z2. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (JANA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031211 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CELA) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z1 --- NEAR 15.7S3 43.9E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S3 43.9E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 15.8S4 43.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 16.1S8 43.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 16.4S1 43.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 17.1S9 42.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM
---
REMARKS:
112100Z5 POSITION NEAR 15.7S3 43.8E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CELA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM NORTHWEST
OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 111730Z3 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 45 KNOTS. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO INCREASE WITH BOTH
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW EVIDENT. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS FAVORABLE UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE
AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR. TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY
POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE
EAST. TC 03S SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
AND WARM WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGGR, GFDN, WBAI AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z1
IS 08 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z2 AND 122100Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 04S (JANA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031212 09:00z
UNCLAS //N03145//
PASS TO OFFICE CODES:
PSBR BCST //SID 80//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CELA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z9 --- NEAR 15.9S5 43.9E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S5 43.9E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 16.0S7 43.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 16.3S0 43.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 16.8S5 43.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 17.4S2 43.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
120900Z2 POSITION NEAR 15.9S5 43.9E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CELA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM NORTHWEST
OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 120530Z1 VISIBLE AND
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TC 03S IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW
LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY
WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND IN
THE WARM WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR, GFDN, AND WBAR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z9 IS 08 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 122100Z6 AND 130900Z3.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031212 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CELA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z2 --- NEAR 16.2S9 43.9E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S9 43.9E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 16.6S3 43.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 17.3S1 43.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 18.0S9 43.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 19.0S0 43.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM
---
REMARKS:
122100Z6 POSITION NEAR 16.3S0 043.9E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CELA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM NORTHWEST
OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS BEEN QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 121730Z4 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30, 35 AND 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLING CONVECTION AND DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS
IN THE SYSTEM. TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY POLEWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST.
TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS EQUATORWARD
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND IN THE WARM WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR, GFDN, AND
WBAR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z2 IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z3
AND 132100Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031213 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CELA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z0 --- NEAR 16.4S1 43.7E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S1 43.7E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 16.7S4 43.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 17.4S2 43.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 18.3S2 43.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 19.5S5 43.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
---
REMARKS:
130900Z3 POSITION NEAR 16.5S2 43.7E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CELA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM
NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS BEEN QUASISTATIONARY
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 130530Z2
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLING DIURNAL CONVECTION. TC 03S IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A LOW LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 03S IS EXPECTED
TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS EQUATORWARD OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND IN THE WARM WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR, GFDN, AND WBAR ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE
AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 130600Z0 IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z7 AND 140900Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031213 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CELA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z3 --- NEAR 16.3S0 42.7E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S0 42.7E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 16.6S3 42.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 17.0S8 42.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 17.7S5 42.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 18.6S5 42.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
---
REMARKS:
132100Z7 POSITION NEAR 16.4S1 042.7E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CELA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS BEEN MAINLY QUASISTATIONARY
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 131730Z5
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30, 35 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLING DIURNAL CONVECTION. TC 03S IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A LOW LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 36 THE
STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD WITH THE APPROACH OF
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE WEST ALLOWING TC 03S TO INCREASE SPEED
POLEWARD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR, NCEP
GFS, AND WBAR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST
IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z3 IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 140900Z4 AND 142100Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031214 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CELA) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z1 --- NEAR 17.1S9 41.7E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S9 41.7E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 18.0S9 41.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 19.1S1 41.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 19.9S9 41.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 20.4S6 42.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
---
REMARKS:
140900Z4 POSITION NEAR 17.3S1 41.7E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CELA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM EAST OF
MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 140530Z3 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
30 AND 35 KNOTS. A 140307Z5 SSM/I PASS DEPICTS THE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 03S IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, EGRR, NCEP GFS, AND WBAR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z1 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 142100Z8 AND 150900Z5.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031214 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CELA) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z4 --- NEAR 18.3S2 41.4E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S2 41.4E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 19.2S2 41.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 19.9S9 41.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 20.5S7 41.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 21.1S4 41.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
---
REMARKS:
142100Z8 POSITION NEAR 18.5S4 041.3E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CELA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
140 NM SOUTHEAST OF MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 141730Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
25, 35 AND 45 KNOTS. TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW LEVEL STEERING
RIDGE TO THE EAST. A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN THE POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE AND CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING
THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING
OF NOGAPS, EGRR, NCEP GFS, GFDN AND WBAR ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
DURING THE INITIAL 24 HOURS AND THEN TRACKS DIVERGE RAPIDLY DUE
TO THE WEAK INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM FORECAST BY AVAILABLE AIDS.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z4 IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z5 AND 152100Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031215 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CELA) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z2 --- NEAR 19.6S6 40.9E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S6 40.9E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 20.3S5 40.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 21.0S3 40.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 21.7S0 40.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 22.4S8 41.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
150900Z5 POSITION NEAR 19.8S8 40.8E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CELA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
142330Z3 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25, 30, AND
45 KNOTS. TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST.
BY TAU 18, A TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND WEAKEN THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING THE INTENSITY OF
THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
EGRR, NCEP GFS, GFDN, AND WBAR ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT DURING THE
INITIAL 12 HOURS AND THEN TRACKS DIVERGE RAPIDLY DUE TO THE WEAK
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM FORECAST BY AVAILABLE AIDS. THIS FORECAST
IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z2 IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 152100Z9 AND 160900Z6.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031215 21:00z
UNCLAS //N03145//
PASS TO OFFICE CODES:
PSBR BCST //SID 80//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CELA) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z5 --- NEAR 20.7S9 41.4E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7S9 41.4E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 20.9S1 41.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 20.9S1 40.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 21.0S3 40.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 21.1S4 39.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
152100Z9 POSITION NEAR 20.7S9 41.3E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CELA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
WEST OF MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
151730Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 151711Z6 MICROWAVE
PASS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. THE MICROWAVE PASS INDICATES A MID-LEVEL
EYE FEATURE, WITH A BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTH. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS THAT A TRANSIENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ABOUT
TO MOVE OUT AND A RIDGE IS BUILDING TO THE SOUTH BEHIND IT. TC 03S
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT
TRACKS IN THE WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND RIDGE. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING FLOW. AS
A RESULT, A WESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED THROUGH 48 HOURS. POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS
BEING ENHANCED BY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN IN THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS AS THAT TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THEREFORE,
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE PERIOD, AND THEN THE SYSTEM
SHOULD SLIGHTLY WEAKEN. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR,
NCEP GFS, GFDN AND WBAR ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. EGRR AND NGPS
KEEP THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH STRONG AND TRACK THE SYSTEM DUE WEST, WHILE GFS AND
GFDN WEAKEN THE RIDGE LATE IN THE PERIOD, RESULTING IN A MORE POLEWARD
TRACK. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z5 IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z6 AND 162100Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031216 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CELA) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z3 --- NEAR 20.6S8 41.6E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S8 41.6E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 20.8S0 41.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 21.2S5 41.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 21.6S9 40.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 22.3S7 40.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM
---
REMARKS:
160900Z6 POSITION NEAR 20.6S8 41.6E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CELA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS BEEN ALMOST QUASISTATIONARY
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS WITH A SLIGHT DRIFT TO THE EAST AT 2 KNOTS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 160530Z5 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. A RECENT 060239Z0 SSMI IN THE 37 GHZ FREQUENCY
REVEALS THAT TC 03S HAS INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY TO TYPHOON STRENGTH WITH
THE EMERGENCE OF AN 18 NM IRREGULAR EYE. ENHANCED INFRARED WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY A
PASSING MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOUTH OF TC 03S. THIS TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE
WILL SOON BE REPLACED BY ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONING THE
DOMINANT STEERING FLOW FROM A POLEWARD PATTERN TO A MORE WESTWARD
PATTERN. THE ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL SOON SUBSIDE ALLOWING FOR A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY OF TC 03S THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGGR, WBAR AND NCEP GFS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH WBAR BEING THE SIGNIFICANT
OUTLIER. WBAR FORECASTS TC 03S TO REMAIN IN A STRICT POLEWARD PATTERN
WHICH DIFFERS FROM THE OTHER MODELS. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE
AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON WBAR.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z3 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
162100Z0 AND 170900Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031216 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CELA) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z6 --- NEAR 21.2S5 41.8E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2S5 41.8E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 22.0S4 41.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 22.7S1 41.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 23.7S2 41.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 25.4S1 41.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM
---
REMARKS:
162100Z0 POSITION NEAR 21.4S7 41.7E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CELA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS BEEN QUASISTATIONARY OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 161730Z8 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM MAINTAINS A 12 NM
IRREGULAR EYE. A PASSING LOW-LEVEL RIDGE POLEWARD OF THE SYSTEM HAS KEPT
THE MOVEMENT OF TC 03S QUASISTATIONARY. AS THE RIDGE PASSES EASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS, TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BEGIN TRACKING POLEWARD
INTO THE WEAKNESS BEHIND. THIS LOW-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
STEERING MECHANISM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, GUIDING TC 03S POLEWARD.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR, AND GFS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A
BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
161800Z6 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z7 AND 172100Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031217 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CELA) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z4 --- NEAR 21.5S8 40.9E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S8 40.9E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 22.4S8 40.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 23.8S3 40.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 24.7S3 40.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 25.4S1 42.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM
---
REMARKS:
170900Z7 POSITION NEAR 21.7S0 40.7E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CELA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 4 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 170530Z6 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 170332Z6 AMSU PASS REVEALS THAT THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF TC 03S HAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED WITH
DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING ONLY IN THE SOUTHERN
QUADRANTS. TC 03S IS INITIALLY EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. TC 03S WILL THEN TRANSITION TO A MORE
POLEWARD TRACK MIDWAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD AND THE CYCLONE MOVES TOWARDS THE
WEAKNESS BEHIND. TC 03S HAS CURRENTLY LOST MUCH OF ITS POLEWARD
OUTFLOW SO IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY. A MAJOR
SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, ENHANCING THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
ALLOWING TC 03S TO BEGIN TO REINTENSIFY. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR, WBAR AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE
AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z4 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z1 AND
180900Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031217 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CELA) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z7 --- NEAR 23.1S6 39.9E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.1S6 39.9E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 23.9S4 39.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 24.7S3 39.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 25.3S0 40.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 25.9S6 41.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM
---
REMARKS:
172100Z1 POSITION NEAR 23.3S8 39.8E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CELA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 171730Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-
WESTWARD AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE OUTFLOW
AND TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THEREAFTER, INCREASING SHEAR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR, WBAR AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A
BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 171800Z7 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z8 AND
182100Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031218 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CELA) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z5 --- NEAR 24.0S6 39.0E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.0S6 39.0E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 24.5S1 38.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 25.0S7 39.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 25.8S5 40.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 27.0S9 41.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180900Z8 POSITION NEAR 24.1S7 38.9E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CELA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 172330Z6 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45, 55, AND
77 KNOTS. TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND A WEAK
LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST. BY TAU 12, THE LOW TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTHEAST OF TC 03S PROVIDING A
STRONGER STEERING FLOW. AFTER TAU 12, TC 03S WILL TRACK ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE GIVING TC 03S A SOUTHEAST
TRACK. BY TAU 48, TC 03S WILL PICK UP SPEED AND START TO INTERACT WITH
THE BARACLINIC ZONE. TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY THROUGH
THE FIRST SIX TO TWELVE HOURS. BY TAU 12, TC 03S WILL SLIGHTLY DECREASE
AS IT PASSES THE RIDGE AXIS AND ENCOUNTERS A DECREASE IN OUTFLOW ALOFT.
BY TAU 36, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A FURTHER DECREASE IN OUTFLOW
ALOFT WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
GFDN, EGRR, AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. EGRR AND GFS
DIFFER SLIGHTLY AFTER TAU 24. THOSE TWO MODELS HAVE A FASTER TRACK TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST DUE TO A STRONGER RIDGE TO THE EAST. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z5 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z2 AND 190900Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031218 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CELA) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z8 --- NEAR 24.6S2 39.7E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.6S2 39.7E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 24.9S5 40.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 25.3S0 40.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 26.5S3 41.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 28.5S5 41.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
182100Z2 POSITION NEAR 24.7S3 39.8E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CELA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 181730Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED AND RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE FOR THE FIRST
12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER, TC 03S SHOULD BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTHEAST OF TC 03S
WILL BUILD AND PROVIDE A STRONGER STEERING FLOW. BY TAU 48, TC
03S WILL PICK UP SPEED AS IT BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. TC
03S IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS IT REMAINS IN A MARGINAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, EGRR, AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A
BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 181800Z8 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z9 AND
192100Z3.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031219 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CELA) WARNING NR 028
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z6 --- NEAR 25.0S7 41.3E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0S7 41.3E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 25.6S3 42.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 27.1S0 42.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 29.7S8 43.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 32.5S0 45.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190900Z9 POSITION NEAR 25.2S9 41.6E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CELA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 190530Z8 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS.
TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS. THEREAFTER, TC 03S WILL BEGIN TO TRACK
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTHEAST OF TC 03S
WILL BUILD AND PROVIDE A STRONGER STEERING FLOW. BY TAU 36, TC 03S
WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP SPEED AS IT STARTS TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE. TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 12. AFTER
TAU 12, TC 03S WILL SLOWLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT ENTERS A HIGHER
SHEAR AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, EGRR, AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z6 IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z3 AND 200900Z1. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P
(DEBBIE) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031219 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CELA) WARNING NR 029
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z9 --- NEAR 26.2S0 42.8E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.2S0 42.8E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 28.0S0 42.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 29.7S8 42.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 32.5S0 44.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 35.2S0 48.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
192100Z3 POSITION NEAR 26.6S4 42.8E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CELA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 191730Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS GUIDED BY THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN TC 03S AFTER 12 HOURS.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS TO BEGINS TO INTERACT
WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE EXTRATROPICAL IN 48 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, EGRR, AND GFS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE
AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z9 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z1 AND
202100Z5.REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (DEBBIE) WARNINGS
(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031220 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CELA) WARNING NR 030
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z8 --- NEAR 27.9S8 42.2E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.9S8 42.2E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 30.4S7 42.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 33.3S9 44.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 36.2S1 50.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
200900Z1 POSITION NEAR 28.5S5 42.3E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CELA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 200530Z0 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE
TO THE EAST. TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOON IN RESPONSE TO
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR. TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN INTERACTING WITH
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO AN EXTRATROPICAL
LOW IN 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE FULLY
EXTRATROPICAL IN 36 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING
OF NOGAPS, EGRR, WBAR AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND
OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 200600Z8 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z5 AND 210900Z2.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (DEBBIE) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031220 21:00z
UNCLAS //N03145//
PASS TO OFFICE CODES:
PSBR BCST //SID 80//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CELA) WARNING NR 031
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z1 --- NEAR 31.0S4 41.8E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.0S4 41.8E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 34.0S7 44.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 36.6S5 49.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
202100Z5 POSITION NEAR 31.8S2 42.5E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CELA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 740 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 201730Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE
TO THE EAST. TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOON IN RESPONSE TO
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR. TC 03S HAS BEGUN INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND IS NOW TRANSITIONING TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL IN 24 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR, WBAR AND NCEP GFS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z1 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
210900Z2. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (DEBBIE) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031221 09:00z AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CELA) WARNING NR 032A AMENDED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z9 --- NEAR 34.3S0 43.8E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.3S0 43.8E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 37.8S8 50.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
210900Z2 POSITION NEAR 35.2S0 45.5E4.
THIS WARNING HAS BEEN AMENDED BASED ON A QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWING
THE INTENSITY TO BE HIGHER. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CELA),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 915 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO,
MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 210530Z1 MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS AND A 210324Z2 QUIKSCAT
PASS OF 50 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS THAT TC 03S IS TRANSITIONING TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND TO BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL IN 12 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A
BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 210600Z9 IS 18 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P
(DEBBIE) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_cela_jtwc_advisories.htm
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