Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone DEBBIE : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2003-2004 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone DEBBIE Track Map and Data |
WTPS21 PGTW 20031218 09:00z RTD
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 180851ZDEC2003//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 125 NM RADIUS OF 9.9S8 135.3E2 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 180930Z1 INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.9S8 135.3E2. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
9.7S6 135.9E8 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.9S8 135.3E2, APPROXIMATELY 310
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER
VAPOR AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION
AROUND A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). LATEST 200 MB
ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BASED ON IMPROVED ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 190900Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20031218 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MY/180851Z DEC 03//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (DEBBIE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z8 --- NEAR 9.7S6 135.3E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 01 KT
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.7S6 135.3E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 9.8S7 135.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 10.1S2 135.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 10.5S6 135.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 10.9S0 135.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
182100Z2 POSITION NEAR 9.7S6 135.3E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (DEBBIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA HAS BEEN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 181641Z1 AMSU
AND 181730Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
35 KNOTS. TC 05P IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS ENHANCED EQUATORIAL WESTERLY WINDS BALANCE
THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM SHOULD START TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AS
THE EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES WEAKEN AND A RIDGE BUILDS TO THE EAST. TC 05P
IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR, HIGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AND MARGINAL OUTFLOW. THEREFORE, INTENSIFICATION AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS, CONSISTING OF UKMET (EGRR), NCEP GFS, NOGAPS, AND WBAR ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A
BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
181800Z8 IS 08 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN
180851Z DEC 03 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 180900). NEXT
WARNINGS AT 190900Z9 AND 192100Z3.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20031219 09:00z COR
UNCLAS //N03145//
PASS TO OFFICE CODES:
PSBR BCST //SID 80//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (DEBBIE) WARNING NR 002A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z6 --- NEAR 9.9S8 134.7E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.9S8 134.7E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 10.3S4 134.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 10.8S9 134.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 11.3S5 133.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 11.5S7 132.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190900Z9 POSITION NEAR 10.0S1 134.6E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (DEBBIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 190530Z8 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35, 45, AND
65 KNOTS. FOR THE INITIAL 12 HOURS, TC 05P IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE WEST-NORTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF A WEAK LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU
24, TC 05P WILL START TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A STRONG RIDGE LOCATED OVER AUSTRALIA. TC 05P IS IN
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR, HIGH
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC 05P IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24,
TC 05P WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY. AFTER TAU 36, TC 05P WILL BEGIN TO
INTERACT WITH LAND CAUSING INTENSITY TO DECREASE. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF UKMET (EGRR), NCEP GFS, NOGAPS, AND
WBAR ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z6 IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 192100Z3 AND 200900Z1. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S
(CELA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
JUSTIFICATION FOR COR: CORRECTED SPEED AND DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT IN REMARKS.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20031219 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (DEBBIE) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z9 --- NEAR 10.4S5 134.2E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SYNOPTIC DATA AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.4S5 134.2E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 11.0S2 133.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 11.6S8 133.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 12.0S3 132.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 12.4S7 131.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
192100Z3 POSITION NEAR 10.6S7 134.1E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (DEBBIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM
NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON SYNOPTIC DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SYNOPTIC AND
ESTIMATED SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. TC
05P IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
WEST-NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A WEAK LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE
TO THE EAST. AFTER 24 HOURS TC 05P WILL START TO TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. TC 05P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK TO
MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR, HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD
OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC 05P IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE THROUGH 24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS TC 05P WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT
WITH THE NORTHERN TERRITORY COAST CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF UKMET (EGRR), NCEP GFS,
NOGAPS, TCLAPS, TLAPS, AND WBAR MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WBAR HAS BEEN EXTREMELY POOR OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS
WITH CONTINUED EASTWARD FORECAST TRACKS. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS MINUS WBAR.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z9 IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 200900Z1 AND 202100Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S
(CELA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20031220 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (DEBBIE) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z8 --- NEAR 11.3S5 133.8E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.3S5 133.8E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 11.9S1 133.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 12.4S7 132.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 12.7S0 131.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z0 --- 13.0S4 131.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
200900Z1 POSITION NEAR 11.4S6 133.7E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (DEBBIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
200530Z0 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SYNOPTIC AND ESTIMATED SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. TC 05P IS ABOUT
TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR GOULBURN ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. TC 05P IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA AND WEAKEN
RAPIDLY OVER LAND. TC 05P HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO SURVIVE OVER
LAND AND RETURN OVER THE OPEN TROPICAL WATERS OF THE TIMOR SEA
WHERE IT WOULD REINTENSIFY. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING
OF UKMET (EGRR), NCEP GFS, NOGAPS, TCLAPS, TLAPS, AND WBAR MODELS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED
ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z8 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
202100Z5 AND 210900Z2. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CELA)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20031220 21:00z
UNCLAS //N03145//
PASS TO OFFICE CODES:
PSBR BCST //SID 80//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (DEBBIE) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z1 --- NEAR 12.4S7 133.3E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S7 133.3E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 13.2S6 132.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 13.9S3 132.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z0 --- 14.6S1 130.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z3 --- 15.2S8 128.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
202100Z5 POSITION NEAR 12.6S9 133.1E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (DEBBIE), CROSSED THE AUSTRALIAN COAST
NEAR TURNER POINT JUST AFTER 201200Z5. THE SYSTEM IS NOW LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 150 NM EAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, AND HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 201730Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SYNOPTIC
AND ESTIMATED SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS.
TC 05P IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA
AND WEAKEN RAPIDLY OVER LAND. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING
OF UKMET (EGRR), NCEP GFS, NOGAPS, TCLAPS, TLAPS, AND WBAR MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED
ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210900Z2 AND 212100Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
03S (CELA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20031221 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (DEBBIE) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z9 --- NEAR 13.8S2 133.3E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S2 133.3E0
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 14.4S9 132.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
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REMARKS:
210900Z2 POSITION NEAR 13.9S3 133.2E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (DEBBIE), CROSSED THE AUSTRALIAN COAST
NEAR TURNER POINT JUST AFTER 201200Z5 AND MOVED INLAND. THE SYSTEM
IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA,
AND HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 210530Z1 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON ESTIMATED SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CELA)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_debbie_jtwc_advisories.htm
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