Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone ELITA : JTWC Advisories |
Season 2003-2004 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
---> Tropical Cyclone ELITA Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20040126 13:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 261251Z JAN 04// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 095 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.8S5 42.8E4 TO 21.5S8 44.6E4 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 261200Z1 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.3S2 43.4E1. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: LATEST ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 200MB ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BUT MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTMATED TO BE 1002 MB. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 271300Z3.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20040126 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/261251Z JAN 04// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 261800Z7 --- NEAR 18.4S3 43.2E9 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S3 43.2E9 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z5 --- 18.5S4 43.4E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z8 --- 18.5S4 43.7E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z6 --- 18.8S7 43.9E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z9 --- 19.2S2 43.9E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 262100Z1 POSITION NEAR 18.4S3 43.3E0. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (ELITA), HAS DEVELOPED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANAVARO, MADAGASCAR AND HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 261730Z9 INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. A 261818Z6 SSM/I PASS REVEALS THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS WRAPPING INTO THE WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 09S IS CURRENTLY IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE MODELS INDICATE THAT OUTFLOW WILL IMPROVE. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP AVIATION, AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO; NOGAPS DOES NOT INITIALIZE ON THE SYSTEM VERY WELL. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z7 IS 12 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 261251Z JAN 04 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 261300) NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z8 AND 272100Z2.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20040127 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 270600Z5 --- NEAR 18.9S8 43.6E3 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S8 43.6E3 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z8 --- 19.1S1 43.8E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z6 --- 19.6S6 44.0E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z9 --- 20.3S5 44.2E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z7 --- 21.3S6 44.5E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 270900Z8 POSITION NEAR 19.0S0 43.7E4. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (ELITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 270530Z7 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. A 270429Z4 SSM/I PASS REVEALS THAT DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 09S IS CURRENTLY IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 24. BY TAU 36, TC 09S WILL BEGIN TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR MORONDAVA, MADAGASCAR. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR AND MODERATE OUTFLOW. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NCEP AVIATION AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO WHILE NOGAPS DOES NOT INITIALIZE ON THE SYSTEM VERY WELL. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON NOGAPS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z2 AND 280900Z9.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20040127 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNING NR 003 RELOCATED 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 271200Z2 --- NEAR 17.0S8 43.5E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S8 43.5E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z0 --- 16.6S3 43.7E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z3 --- 16.3S0 44.0E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z1 --- 16.1S8 44.5E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z4 --- 16.1S8 45.3E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 271500Z5 POSITION NEAR 16.9S6 43.6E3. RECENT SSMI MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (ELITA) IS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED. BASED ON THIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY, WE RELOCATED THE POSITION ABOUT 120 NM NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS WARNING POSITION. TC 09S (ELITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 271130Z4 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. A 271126Z9 SSM/I PASS REVEALS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. TC 09S IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE WEST. BY TAU 24, TC 09S WILL TRAVEL EASTWARD AS A RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL BUILD IN AND TAKE OVER THE STEERING PATTERN. THE RELOCATION HAS SHIFTED THE OVERALL FORECAST TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 24. BY TAU 36, TC 09S WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH LAND CAUSING A LOSS IN INTENSIFICATION. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP AVIATION, GFDN, AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. NCEP AVIATION IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WHILE THE OTHER THREE MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON NCEP AVIATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z2 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z3 AND 281500Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WARNING 004 NOT AVAILABLE ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20040128 15:00Z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNING NR 005 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 281200Z3 --- NEAR 15.5S1 45.7E6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S1 45.7E6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z1 --- 16.4S1 46.6E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z4 --- 17.9S7 47.4E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z3 --- 19.4S4 48.2E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 281500Z6 POSITION NEAR 15.7S3 45.9E8. TC 09S (ELITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 281130Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. TC 09S IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. TC 09S IS NOW MAKING LANDFALL JUST WEST OF MAHAJANGA, MADAGASCAR. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD AND REMAIN OVER LAND FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. TC 09S IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY 36 HOURS AS IT INTERACTS WITH LAND. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP AVIATION, GFDN, WBAI, AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z9 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z4 AND 291500Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WARNING 006 NOT AVAILABLE ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20040131 21:00z REGENERATED MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNING NR 007 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 311800Z3 --- NEAR 20.6S8 44.4E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S8 44.4E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z7 --- 20.0S2 42.8E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z0 --- 19.6S6 42.5E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z8 --- 19.2S2 42.4E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z1 --- 18.8S7 42.4E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 312100Z7 POSITION NEAR 20.4S6 44.0E8. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (ELITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR , HAS MOVED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 311730Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. TC 09S IS JUST INLAND OF THE WESTERN MADAGASCAR SHORELINE AND IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER INTENSIFY ONCE IT MOVES OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS INCREASING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD OUTFLOW IN BOTH THE EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD DIRECTIONS. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD AND THEN BECOME QUASISTATIONARY AS IT TRANSITIONS TO A DIFFERENT STEERING ENVIRONMENT. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OR HIGHER AS THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS PREDICT GOOD OUTFLOW FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, AND UKMET EGRR, ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z3 IS 08 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z0 AND 012100Z4. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) AND 11S (LINDA) WARNINGS (WTXS32/WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20040201 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNING NR 008 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010600Z7 --- NEAR 19.2S2 43.2E9 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S2 43.2E9 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z0 --- 19.0S0 42.7E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z8 --- 18.7S6 42.7E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z1 --- 19.0S0 43.0E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z9 --- 19.5S5 43.9E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 010900Z0 POSITION NEAR 19.1S1 43.1E8. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (ELITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS MOVED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 010530Z9 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THEN TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD MADAGASCAR. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT REMAINS IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW. THE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, AND UKMET EGRR, ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z4 AND 020900Z1. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LINDA) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20040201 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNING NR 009 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 011800Z0 --- NEAR 18.9S8 42.6E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S8 42.6E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z8 --- 19.1S1 42.6E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z1 --- 19.5S5 42.9E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z9 --- 20.0S2 43.5E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z2 --- 20.6S8 44.4E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 012100Z4 POSITION NEAR 19.0S0 42.6E2. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (ELITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS MOVED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 011730Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS FAVORABLE VENTILATION IN THE EQUATORWARD DIRECTION. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY QUASISTATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING ENVIRONMENT FOR THIS SYSTEM MID-WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD CAUSING TC 09S TO TRACK BACK TOWARDS THE COASTLINE OF MADAGASCAR AFTER 24 TO 36 HOURS. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT REMAINS IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW. THE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, WBAR AND UKMET EGRR, ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z0 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z1 AND 022100Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LINDA) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20040202 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNING NR 010 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 020600Z8 --- NEAR 19.3S3 42.6E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S3 42.6E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z1 --- 19.9S9 43.2E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z9 --- 20.4S6 43.8E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z2 --- 21.0S3 44.4E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z0 --- 21.9S2 45.3E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 020900Z1 POSITION NEAR 19.5S5 42.8E4. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (ELITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS MOVED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 020530Z0 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD VENTILATION. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH 24 HOURS AS IT REMAINS IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW. AS A MID-LEVEL EQUATORIAL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING ENVIRONMENT FOR THIS SYSTEM, TC 09S WILL TRACK BACK TOWARDS THE COASTLINE OF MADAGASCAR. THE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, GFS, AND UKMET EGRR, ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. BEYOND 24 HOURS, INTERACTION WITH LAND WILL RAPIDLY DECAY THE STORM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z8 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z5 AND 030900Z2. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LINDA) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20040202 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNING NR 011 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 021800Z1 --- NEAR 19.4S4 43.3E0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S4 43.3E0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z9 --- 19.8S8 43.9E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z2 --- 20.5S7 44.6E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z0 --- 21.5S8 45.6E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z3 --- 22.5S9 46.7E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 022100Z5 POSITION NEAR 19.5S5 43.5E2. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (ELITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS MOVED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 021730Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS MODERATE EQUATORWARD VENTILATION. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH 12 HOURS AS IT REMAINS IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE OUTFLOW. AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING ENVIRONMENT FOR THIS SYSTEM, TC 09S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK BACK TOWARDS THE COASTLINE OF MADAGASCAR. THE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, GFS, AND UKMET EGRR, ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. BEYOND 24 HOURS, INTERACTION WITH LAND WILL RAPIDLY DECAY THE STORM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z1 IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z2 AND 032100Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20040203 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNING NR 012 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 030600Z9 --- NEAR 20.8S0 45.1E0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND REPEAT POSIT: 20.8S0 45.1E0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z2 --- 21.3S6 45.8E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z0 --- 22.5S9 47.4E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z3 --- 23.5S0 48.7E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z1 --- 24.8S4 50.2E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM --- REMARKS: 030900Z2 POSITION NEAR 20.9S1 45.3E2. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (ELITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS MOVED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 030530Z1 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH 24 HOURS AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MADAGASCAR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND REINTENSIFY ON THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR BY TAU 36. TC 09S IS STEERING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, GFS, AND UKMET EGRR, ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH REINTENSIFICATION OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR. THE MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AFTER TAU 24 WITH EGRR KEEPING THE SYSTEM QUASISTATIONARY WHILE NCEP GFS LINKS THE SYSTEM WITH A PASSING TROUGH AND INITIATES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z6 AND 040900Z3. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20040203 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNING NR 013 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 031800Z2 --- NEAR 21.7S0 47.1E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S0 47.1E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z0 --- 22.7S1 48.3E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z3 --- 24.0S6 49.6E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z1 --- 25.3S0 50.6E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z4 --- 26.6S4 51.5E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM --- REMARKS: 032100Z6 POSITION NEAR 22.0S4 047.4E5. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (ELITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM SOUTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS MOVED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 031730Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. TC 09S IS STEERING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY AS IT ENTERS A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR BY TAU 12. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSITY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, GFS, AND UKMET EGRR, ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z2 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z3 AND 042100Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= =========================================================================
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
Document: tropical_cyclone_elita_jtwc_advisories.htm
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