Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone FRANK : JTWC Advisories |
Season 2003-2004 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
---> Tropical Cyclone FRANK Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20040127 01:30z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 270121ZJAN2004// RMKS/ 1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.4S6 63.8E7 TO 15.4S0 64.3E3 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 262330Z6 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.0S3 64.1E1. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 01 KNOT. 3. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.9S1 64.1E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0S3 64.1E1, APPROXIMATELY 565 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. LATEST ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES SUSTAINED CONVECTION OVER A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH SPIRAL BANDING BECOMING EVIDENT. 200 MB ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 280100Z1.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20040127 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270121ZJAN2004// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 271200Z2 --- NEAR 11.4S6 64.5E5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 11.4S6 64.5E5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z0 --- 11.7S9 64.6E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z3 --- 12.2S5 64.7E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z1 --- 12.7S0 64.4E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z4 --- 13.0S4 63.8E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM --- REMARKS: 271500Z5 POSITION NEAR 11.5S7 64.5E5. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 520 NM WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 271130Z4 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 35 KNOTS. ENHANCED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. TC 10S IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE DUE TO MODERATE OUTFLOW AND WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP AVIATION, AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z2 IS 08 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 270121Z JAN 04 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 270130) NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z3 AND 281500Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WARNING 002 NOT AVAILABLE ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20040128 21:00z UNCLAS //N03145// PASS TO OFFICE CODES: PSBR BCST//SID 80// DIRNSA FT GEORGE G MEADE MD//DDI-LIZ/P313/Q332/WWEA// MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 281800Z9 --- NEAR 14.9S4 64.0E0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S4 64.0E0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z7 --- 15.9S5 63.7E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z0 --- 16.6S3 63.3E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z9 --- 17.0S8 62.6E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z2 --- 17.7S5 61.5E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM --- REMARKS: 282100Z3 POSITION NEAR 15.2S8 63.9E8. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (FRANK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 485 NM NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 281730Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55, 65, AND 77 KNOTS. TC 10S IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS AND THEN WESTWARD AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK TO THE WEST. TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT A SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH 36 HOURS WHILE IN A GOOD ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP AVIATION, AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. NOGAPS AND GFDN ARE STEERING THE SYSTEM AT A SHALLOWER LEVEL AND KEEP THE MOVEMENT NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH 36 HOURS. UKMET AND AVIATION ARE STEERING AT A MORE APPROPRIATE LEVEL AND ARE TRACKING THE SYSTEM POLEWARD SOONER. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON THE UKMET AND NCEP SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z9 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z0 AND 292100Z4. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WARNING 004 NOT AVAILABLE ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20040129 21:00z UNCLAS //N03145// PASS TO OFFICE CODES: PSBR BCST//SID 80// DIRNSA FT GEORGE G MEADE MD//DDI-LIZ/P313/Q332/WWEA// MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) WARNING NR 005 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 291800Z0 --- NEAR 16.5S2 63.1E0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S2 63.1E0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z9 --- 17.0S8 62.6E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z2 --- 17.5S3 61.9E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z0 --- 18.1S0 61.3E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z3 --- 19.0S0 60.9E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM --- REMARKS: 292100Z4 POSITION NEAR 16.6S3 63.0E9. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (FRANK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 291730Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. TC 10S IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED AND SLOWED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE. AFTERWARDS, AS THE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARD AND INCREASE ITS SPEED. TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS BEING BIASED WITH INTERACTION WITH THE REMINANTS OF TC 09S. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS MINUS GFS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z9 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z2 AND 302100Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20040330 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) WARNING NR 006 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 300600Z9 --- NEAR 16.3S0 62.1E9 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S0 62.1E9 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z2 --- 16.4S1 61.3E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z0 --- 17.0S8 60.5E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z3 --- 17.8S6 60.0E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z7 --- 18.6S5 59.6E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM --- REMARKS: 300900Z2 POSITION NEAR 16.3S0 61.9E6. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (FRANK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 300530Z1 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 102 KNOTS. TC 10S IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A COL AREA NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM AS THE STEERING RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD. OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS THE STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD. TC 10S IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARD AND INCREASE SPEED ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE. TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z6 AND 310900Z3. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20040130 21:00z SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 301800Z2 --- NEAR 15.5S1 61.7E4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S1 61.7E4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z0 --- 15.3S9 61.3E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z3 --- 15.7S3 60.9E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z7 --- 16.8S5 61.0E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z0 --- 18.0S9 61.8E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM --- REMARKS: 302100Z6 POSITION NEAR 15.5S1 61.6E3. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (FRANK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 301730Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 AND 115 KNOTS. TC 10S IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TRANSITIONING TC 10S TO A NEW STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND SENDING TC 10S ON A MORE EASTWARD TRACK. TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO INITIALLY TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD AND THEN RECURVE EASTWARD UNDER THIS SCENARIO. TC 10S SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS MOST OF THE MODELS DEPICT A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, WBAR AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z2 IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310900Z3 AND 312100Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LINDA) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WARNING 008 NOT AVAILABLE ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20040131 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) WARNING NR 009 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 311800Z3 --- NEAR 15.7S3 62.1E9 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S3 62.1E9 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z7 --- 16.5S2 62.8E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z0 --- 17.3S1 63.8E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z8 --- 18.1S0 65.5E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z1 --- 19.1S1 67.7E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 312100Z7 POSITION NEAR 15.9S5 62.3E1. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (FRANK), LOCATED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS MOVED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 311730Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 AND 115 KNOTS. THE LATEST ANALYSIS OF ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE 15 NM DIAMETER IRREGULAR EYE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT AND HAS WARMED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN SPEED AND BEGIN TRACKING POLEWARD AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE EAST. TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE OUTFLOW REMAINS FAVORABLE. TC 10S WILL THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE OUTFLOW WEAKENS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, WBAI, NCEP GFS, AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z3 IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z0 AND 012100Z4. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LINDA) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20040201 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) WARNING NR 010 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010600Z7 --- NEAR 16.0S7 62.9E7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S7 62.9E7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z0 --- 16.7S4 64.2E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z8 --- 17.3S1 66.1E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z1 --- 18.2S1 68.0E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z9 --- 19.3S3 70.0E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM --- REMARKS: 010900Z0 POSITION NEAR 16.2S9 63.2E1. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (FRANK), LOCATED 760 NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 010530Z9 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 AND 115 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASED OUTFLOW OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS ALONG A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WHILE OUTFLOW REMAINS FAVORABLE. TC 10S WILL THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE OUTFLOW WEAKENS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, WBAI, NCEP GFS, AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z7 IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z4 AND 020900Z1. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LINDA) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20040201 21:00z UNCLAS //N03145// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) WARNING NR 011 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 011800Z0 --- NEAR 16.6S3 65.0E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S3 65.0E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z8 --- 17.2S0 66.9E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z1 --- 18.2S1 68.9E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z9 --- 19.4S4 70.6E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z2 --- 21.1S4 71.6E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 012100Z4 POSITION NEAR 16.8S5 65.5E6. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (FRANK), LOCATED 685 NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 011730Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 AND 115 KNOTS. A RECENT 011646Z8 SSMI MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS THAT TC 10S HAS MAINTAINED A SMALL, SYMMETRICAL 10 NM DIAMETER EYE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 10S CONTINUES TO CYCLE WITH OUTFLOW ALOFT REMAINING FAVORABLE TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 24 TO 36 HOURS ALONG A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THEN MORE POLEWARD LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WHILE OUTFLOW REMAINS FAVORABLE. TC 10S WILL THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AFTER 12 HOURS AS THE OUTFLOW BEGINS TO LESSEN. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, WBAI, NCEP GFS, AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z0 IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z1 AND 022100Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LINDA) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20040202 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) WARNING NR 012 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 020600Z8 --- NEAR 17.2S0 67.1E4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S0 67.1E4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z1 --- 18.1S0 69.0E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z9 --- 19.0S0 70.2E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z2 --- 20.2S4 70.9E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z0 --- 21.8S1 71.6E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 020900Z1 POSITION NEAR 17.4S2 67.6E9. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (FRANK), LOCATED 645 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 020530Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102, 115, AND 127 KNOTS. A 020700Z9 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS A SMALL, SYMMETRICAL 10 NM DIAMETER EYE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT AND IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN. TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-SOUTH- EASTWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS ALONG A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THEN MORE POLEWARD AS A RIDGE BUILDS TO THE EAST. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z8 IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z5 AND 030900Z2. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LINDA) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20040202 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) WARNING NR 013 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 021800Z1 --- NEAR 17.2S0 69.1E6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S0 69.1E6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z9 --- 18.1S0 70.3E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z2 --- 19.3S3 71.2E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z0 --- 20.7S9 71.6E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z3 --- 22.4S8 72.0E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 022100Z5 POSITION NEAR 17.4S2 69.4E9. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (FRANK), LOCATED 600 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 021730Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 127 KNOTS. TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. FROM TAU 24 THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, TC 10S WILL TRACK MORE POLEWARD AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z1 IS 44 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z2 AND 032100Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20040203 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) WARNING NR 014 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 030600Z9 --- NEAR 17.5S3 70.6E3 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S3 70.6E3 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z2 --- 18.1S0 71.2E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z0 --- 19.2S2 71.1E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z3 --- 20.6S8 71.1E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z1 --- 22.4S8 71.7E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 030900Z2 POSITION NEAR 17.7S5 70.7E4. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (FRANK), LOCATED 600 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 030530Z1 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE ORIENTED NORTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z9 IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z6 AND 040900Z3. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20040203 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) WARNING NR 015 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 031800Z2 --- NEAR 18.2S1 70.9E6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S1 70.9E6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z0 --- 18.9S8 71.0E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z3 --- 20.1S3 71.0E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z1 --- 21.3S6 71.2E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z4 --- 22.4S8 71.5E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM --- REMARKS: 032100Z6 POSITION NEAR 18.4S3 70.9E6. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (FRANK), LOCATED 640 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 031730Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS. TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO REDUCED UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. ADDITIONALLY, RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS DRY AIR ON THE EQUATORWARD SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE TC WHICH MAY BEGIN TO ENTRAIN INTO THE SYSTEM. TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z2 IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z3 AND 042100Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20040204 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) WARNING NR 016 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 040600Z0 --- NEAR 18.5S4 70.4E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S4 70.4E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z3 --- 19.1S1 70.2E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z1 --- 20.0S2 70.4E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z4 --- 20.9S1 70.8E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z2 --- 21.9S2 71.5E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM --- REMARKS: 040900Z3 POSITION NEAR 18.7S6 70.3E0. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (FRANK), LOCATED 735 NM EAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 040530Z2 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 AND 115 KNOTS. TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 10S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MODERATELY FAVORABLE. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z0 IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z7 AND 050900Z4. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20040204 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) WARNING NR 017 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 041800Z3 --- NEAR 19.2S2 69.9E4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S2 69.9E4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z1 --- 19.8S8 70.0E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z4 --- 20.7S9 70.5E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z2 --- 21.9S2 71.3E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z5 --- 23.3S8 72.7E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM --- REMARKS: 042100Z7 POSITION NEAR 19.3S3 69.9E4. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (FRANK), LOCATED 710 NM EAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 041730Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 AND 115 KNOTS. TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 10S IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STEADY OR WEAKEN IN INTENSITY SLOWLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARDS COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WEAKENS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z3 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z4 AND 052100Z8. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20040205 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) WARNING NR 018 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 050600Z1 --- NEAR 19.9S9 69.9E4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.9S9 69.9E4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z4 --- 20.7S9 70.2E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z2 --- 21.7S0 70.9E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z5 --- 22.7S1 72.0E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z3 --- 23.9S4 73.1E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM --- REMARKS: 050900Z4 POSITION NEAR 20.1S3 70.0E7. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (FRANK), LOCATED 700 NM EAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 050530Z3 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 102 KNOTS. TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 10S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARDS COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW DECREASES. TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. GFS FIELDS INDICATE FASTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, RESULTING IN A FASTER TRACK. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z1 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z8 AND 060900Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR FINAL WARNING.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20040206 21:00z UNCLAS //N03145// DIRNSA FT GEORGE G MEADE MD//DDI-LIZ/P313/Q332/WWEA// MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) WARNING NR 021 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 061800Z5 --- NEAR 23.8S3 75.9E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 17 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT EXTRATROPICAL REPEAT POSIT: 23.8S3 75.9E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z3 --- 25.8S5 78.1E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z6 --- 26.9S7 78.9E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z4 --- 27.7S6 79.6E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 062100Z9 POSITION NEAR 24.3S9 076.4E7. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (FRANK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1040 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 061730Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 45 KNOTS. DEEP CONVECTION OVER TC 10S HAS DISSIPATED DUE TO HIGH EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 10S HAS TRANSITIONED INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM ALONG A WEAK BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY. TC 10S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARDS COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUES TO ENCOUNTER UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z5 IS 24 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
Document: tropical_cyclone_frank_jtwc_advisories.htm
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