WTPS31 PGTW 20040321 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA 
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (GRACE) WARNING NR 001 
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   211800Z2 --- NEAR 19.7S7 155.0E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF 
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S7 155.0E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z0 --- 22.0S4 157.3E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z3 --- 24.1S7 159.7E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z1 --- 25.5S2 161.8E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM 
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z4 --- 26.0S8 163.9E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM 
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
    ---
REMARKS:
212100Z6 POSITION NEAR 20.3S5 155.6E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (GRACE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
500 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 211730Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25, 30 AND 45 KNOTS
AND SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS OF 35 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER ON THE NORTH SIDE OF CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTION.
TC 19P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORE-
CAST PERIOD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-MID
LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED NORTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 19P IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT BELOW A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF GOOD DIFFLUENCE BUT MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS FORECAST IS BASED
ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR) AND NCEP GFS MODELS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z2 IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z3 AND 222100Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20040322 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (GRACE) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220600Z0 --- NEAR 20.3S5 155.9E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S5 155.9E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z3 --- 21.5S8 157.6E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z1 --- 22.9S3 159.5E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z4 --- 24.0S6 161.3E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z2 --- 25.1S8 163.7E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
220900Z3 POSITION NEAR 20.6S8 156.3E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (GRACE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
600 NM WEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 220530Z2 MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND ANIMATED MULTIPSECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. TC 19P IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-MID
LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED NORTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 19P
IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT BELOW A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN
AN ENVIRONMENT OF GOOD DIFFLUENCE BUT MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS FORECAST IS BASED
ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), TCLAPS AND TLAPS MODELS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z0 IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z7 AND 230900Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20040322 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (GRACE) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   221800Z3 --- NEAR 21.6S9 158.1E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.6S9 158.1E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z1 --- 22.9S3 159.9E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
222100Z7 POSITION NEAR 21.9S2 158.5E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (GRACE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470 NM
WEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 221730Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS.
A 221530Z3 AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DISPLACED 1 DEGREE NORTH OF RAPIDLY
DECREASING DEEP CONVECTION. TC 19P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-
EASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED NORTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
TC 19P IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), TCLAPS, AVN, WBAI AND
TLAPS MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z3 IS 18
FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_grace_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]