Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone HETA : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2003-2004 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone HETA Track Map and Data |
WTPS21 PGTW 20031231 19:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 311851Z DEC 03//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301851Z DEC 03//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
2. AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
3. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 120 NM RADIUS OF 13.4S8 176.9W3 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 311730Z5 INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.1S5 177.1W6. THE SYSTEM IS
DRIFTING SOUTHWARD AT 01 KNOTS.
4. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.1S5
176.7W1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.1S5 177.1W6, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
WEST OF APIA, WESTERN SAMOA. RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS THAT DEEP CYCLING CONVECTION IS DISPLACED NORTHEAST OF
A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS AN
ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
5. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 011900Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20030101 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/311851ZDEC2003//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z1 --- NEAR 10.9S0 175.6W9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S0 175.6W9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 10.6S7 174.7W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 10.9S0 174.1W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 11.9S1 173.7W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 13.2S6 173.5W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 15.9S5 172.4W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
010300Z4 POSITION NEAR 10.8S9 175.4W7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
240 NM NORTHWEST OF APIA, WESTERN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 312330Z2 MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25
AND 35 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS NO LONGER EXPOSED
AND THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. TC 07P IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
EASTWARD WITH THE EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES THROUGH 24 HOURS.
AFTER TAU 24, TC 07P IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED
TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
SLOWLY IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND
OF NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z1 IS 15 FEET.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 311900).
NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z0, 011500Z7, 012100Z4 AND 020300Z5.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20040101 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z7 --- NEAR 9.5S4 175.4W7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.5S4 175.4W7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 8.9S7 174.4W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 9.3S2 173.2W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 10.4S5 172.7W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 12.6S9 172.6W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 15.1S7 172.8W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
010900Z0 POSITION NEAR 09.3S2 175.1W4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
300 NM NORTHWEST OF WESTERN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 010530Z9
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. TC 07P HAS BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). TC 07P IS EXPECTED TO INITIALLY TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD, EMBEDDED IN THE EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES OVER THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AFTER TAU 24, TC 07P IS FORECAST TO TRACK
POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL
RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY SLOWLY IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND
OF NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z7 IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z7, 012100Z4, 020300Z5 AND 020900Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20040101 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z4 --- NEAR 8.7S5 175.0W3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.7S5 175.0W3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 8.5S3 174.4W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 8.9S7 173.7W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 10.4S5 173.5W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 12.5S8 173.3W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 15.0S6 173.3W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
011500Z7 POSITION NEAR 8.7S5 174.8W0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
320 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF WESTERN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 011130Z6
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. TC 07P CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT
CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). TC 07P IS EXPECTED TO INITIALLY TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD AND RECURVE TO A MORE POLEWARD TRACK.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY IN A
MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
NCEP GFS, UKMET (EGRR) AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS
ARE SEPARATED INTO TWO DISTINCT CLUSTERS. THE DYNAMIC
AIDS DEPICT A SHARP RECURVE SCENARIO WITH THE TC RECURVING
BACK UPON ITSELF AND CROSSING OVER ITS HISTORICAL TRACK.
THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS DEPICT A MORE GRADUAL RECURVE
SITUATION. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS,
UKMET (EGRR), AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z4 IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 012100Z4, 020300Z5, 020900Z1 AND 021500Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20040101 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z0 --- NEAR 8.5S3 174.8W0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.5S3 174.8W0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 8.7S5 174.1W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 9.7S6 174.0W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 11.3S5 174.6W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 12.6S9 174.9W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 15.1S7 173.5W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
012100Z4 POSITION NEAR 8.5S3 174.6W8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
375 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF APIA, WESTERN SAMOA, HAS
TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 011730Z2
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. TC 07P CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT
CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). TC 07P IS EXPECTED TO INITIALLY TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD AND RECURVE TO A MORE POLEWARD TRACK.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY IN A
MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
NCEP GFS, UKMET (EGRR) AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS
ARE SEPARATED INTO TWO DISTINCT CLUSTERS. THE DYNAMIC
AIDS DEPICT A SHARP RECURVE SCENARIO WITH THE TC RECURVING
BACK UPON ITSELF AND CROSSING OVER THE HISTORICAL TRACK.
THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS DEPICT A MORE GRADUAL RECURVE
SITUATION. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS,
UKMET (EGRR), AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z0 IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z1 AND 022100Z5.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20040102 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z2 --- NEAR 8.0S8 174.1W3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 8.0S8 174.1W3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 8.4S2 173.3W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 9.8S7 173.7W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 11.2S4 174.4W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 13.0S4 174.9W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 15.8S4 173.7W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM
---
REMARKS:
020300Z5 POSITION NEAR 8.1S9 173.9W0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
385 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF APIA, WESTERN SAMOA, HAS
TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 012330Z9
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY
REVEALS THAT DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS FAIRLY ORGANIZED
OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 07P IS
EXPECTED TO INITIALLY TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN
RECURVE TO A MORE POLEWARD TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, UKMET (EGRR) AND THE BETA
ADVECTION MODELS ARE SEPARATED INTO TWO DISTINCT CLUSTERS.
THE DYNAMIC AIDS DEPICT A SHARP RECURVE SCENARIO WITH THE
TC RECURVING BACK UPON ITSELF AND CROSSING OVER THE
HISTORICAL TRACK. THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS DEPICT A MORE
GRADUAL RECURVE SITUATION. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A
BLEND OF NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z2 IS 17 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z1, 021500Z8, 022100Z5 AND 030300Z6.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20040102 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (HETA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z8 --- NEAR 7.9S6 174.1W3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 7.9S6 174.1W3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 8.6S4 173.6W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 9.4S3 174.0W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 10.4S5 174.5W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 12.0S3 174.8W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 14.9S4 173.9W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM
---
REMARKS:
020900Z1 POSITION NEAR 8.1S9 174.0W2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
340 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF APIA, WESTERN SAMOA, HAS
TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 020530Z0
INFARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35, 45 AND 55
KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS THE DEEP CONVECTION
IS NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 07P
IS EXPECTED TO INITIALLY TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND THEN
CONTINUE RECURVING TO A MORE POLEWARD TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, UKMET (EGRR) AND THE BETA
ADVECTION MODELS ARE SEPARATED INTO TWO DISTINCT CLUSTERS.
THE DYNAMIC AIDS DEPICT A SHARP RECURVE SCENARIO WITH THE
TC RECURVING BACK UPON ITSELF AND CROSSING OVER THE HISTORICAL
TRACK. THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A MORE
GRADUAL RECURVE SITUATION. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND
OF NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z8 IS 17 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z8, 022100Z5, 030300Z6 AND 030900Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20040102 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (HETA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z5 --- NEAR 7.9S6 173.8W9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 7.9S6 173.8W9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 8.4S2 173.6W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 9.3S2 174.0W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 10.2S3 174.4W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 11.6S8 174.3W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 14.7S2 172.9W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
021500Z8 POSITION NEAR 8.0S8 173.8W9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (HETA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
350 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF APIA, WESTERN SAMOA, HAS
TRACKED EASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 021130Z7 ENHANCED INFARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY
REVEALS THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). TC 07P IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND
THEN CONTINUE RECURVING TO A MORE POLEWARD TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING
OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, UKMET (EGRR) AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS
ARE SEPARATED INTO TWO DISTINCT CLUSTERS. THE DYNAMIC AIDS DEPICT
A SHARP RECURVE SCENARIO WITH THE TC RECURVING BACK UPON ITSELF
AND CROSSING OVER THE HISTORICAL TRACK. THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT A MORE GRADUAL RECURVE SITUATION. THE FORECAST
IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), AND THE BETA ADVECTION
MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z5, 030300Z6, 030900Z2 AND 031500Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20040102 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (HETA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z1 --- NEAR 8.3S1 173.5W6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.3S1 173.5W6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 9.1S0 173.5W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 10.3S4 173.7W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 11.8S0 173.8W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 13.3S7 173.2W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 17.0S8 170.1W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM
---
REMARKS:
022100Z5 POSITION NEAR 8.5S3 173.5W6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (HETA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF APIA, WESTERN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 021730Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45
AND 55 KNOTS. RECENT ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD
OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS SUPPORTING CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION WITH
STEADY INTENSIFICATION. STRONG EQUATORWARD WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH
OF TC 07P ARE ALSO AIDING IN DEVELOPMENT. TC 07P IS BEGINNING TO
TRANSISITION TO A MORE POLEWARD TRACK AS A HIGH BUILDS TO THE EAST.
TC 07P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD TOWARDS AMERICA
SAMOA AND INTENSIFY TO TYPHOON STRENGTH IN A CONTINUED FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
UKMET (EGRR), GFDN, WBAR, NCEP GFS AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS
HAVE MERGED INTO A CONSISTENT SOLUTION. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z1 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z6,
030900Z2, 031500Z9 AND 032100Z6.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20040103 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (HETA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z3 --- NEAR 9.4S3 173.9W0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.4S3 173.9W0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 10.7S8 173.9W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 12.0S3 173.8W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 13.3S7 173.5W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 14.8S3 172.6W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 19.2S2 169.0W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM
---
REMARKS:
030300Z6 POSITION NEAR 9.7S6 173.9W0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (HETA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF APIA, WESTERN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
022330Z0 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS.
RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION
CYCLING OVER A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH THE
STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS RESIDING IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANTS ENHANCED
BY THE EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO SHOW GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT IN ALL DIRECTIONS. TC 07P HAS NOW
TRANSITIONED TO A POLEWARD STEERING FLOW ENVIRONMENT AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A
BUILDING MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 07P WILL REACH
MAXIMUM INTENSITY IN 48 TO 60 HOURS AND THEN ACCELERATE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS IT LINKS UP WITH A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), GFDN, WBAR, AND NCEP
GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED
ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z3 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
031500Z9 AND 040300Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20040103 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (HETA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z9 --- NEAR 10.0S1 174.0W2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.0S1 174.0W2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 11.2S4 174.1W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 12.5S8 174.1W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 14.0S5 173.7W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 15.7S3 172.6W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 20.5S7 168.4W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM
---
REMARKS:
030900Z2 POSITION NEAR 10.3S4 174.0W2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (HETA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF APIA, WESTERN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 030530Z1 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65
KNOTS. A 030554Z7 SSM/I PASS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTS A LARGE SYSTEM WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC 07P IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE
OF A BUILDING MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 07P IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH 36 HOURS,
AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT BEGINS TO TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET
(EGRR), GFDN, WBAR, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z9 IS 29
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z9, 032100Z6, 040300Z7 AND 040900Z3.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20040103 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (HETA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z6 --- NEAR 10.7S8 174.2W4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.7S8 174.2W4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 12.0S3 174.5W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 13.1S5 174.5W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 14.4S9 173.9W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 16.0S7 172.7W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 20.1S3 168.5W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM
---
REMARKS:
031500Z9 POSITION NEAR 11.0S2 174.3W5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (HETA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
NORTHWEST OF APIA, WESTERN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 031130Z8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND AN INCREASE IN
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 07P IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A BUILDING MID-
LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST THROUGH 36 TO 48 HOURS AND THEN
ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST AS A PASSING TROUGH WEAKENS THE STEERING
RIDGE. TC 07P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
THROUGH 36 HOURS, AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT BEGINS TO TRANSITION INTO
AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), GFDN, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z6 IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z6, 040300Z7, 040900Z3 AND 041500Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20040103 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (HETA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z2 --- NEAR 10.7S8 174.8W0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.7S8 174.8W0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 11.8S0 175.2W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 13.0S4 174.9W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 14.7S2 173.9W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 16.8S5 171.9W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 21.1S4 166.8W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
032100Z6 POSITION NEAR 11.0S2 174.9W1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (HETA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM
NORTHWEST OF APIA, WESTERN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 031730Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. TC 07P CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW EVIDENT ON
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TC 07P IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A BUILDING MID-LEVEL STEERING
RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 07P WILL REACH MAXIMUM INTENSITY IN 36 TO
48 HOURS AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL
SHEAR. TC 07P WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW
IN 60 TO 72 HOURS AND ACCELERATE RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AS IT
BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), GFDN, AND NCEP
GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z2 IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 040300Z7, 040900Z3, 041500Z0 AND 042100Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20040104 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (HETA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z4 --- NEAR 11.0S2 175.1W4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.0S2 175.1W4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 12.1S4 175.2W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 13.6S0 174.8W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 15.3S9 173.7W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 17.1S9 172.0W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 22.2S6 165.8W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040300Z7 POSITION NEAR 11.3S5 175.1W4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (HETA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
NORTHWEST OF APIA, WESTERN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 032330Z0 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS.
RECENT QUIKSCAT DATA SHOWS THAT THE STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE
TO RESIDE IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANTS OF THIS SYSTEM. TC 07P IS
FORECASTED TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 07P WILL REACH MAXIMUM INTENSITY IN
30 TO 42 HOURS AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR. TC 07P WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL
LOW LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT LINKS UP WITH A PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCELERATES RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AS IT
BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), GFDN, AND NCEP
GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z4 IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 040900Z3, 041500Z0, 042100Z7 AND 050300Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20040104 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (HETA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z0 --- NEAR 11.4S6 174.6W8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.4S6 174.6W8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 12.6S9 174.4W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 14.2S7 173.4W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 16.2S9 172.0W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 18.2S1 170.0W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 23.2S7 164.1W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040900Z3 POSITION NEAR 11.7S9 174.5W7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (HETA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
NORTHWEST OF APIA, WESTERN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 040530Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. A 040508Z7 QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICTS
A VERY LARGE SYSTEM. TC 07P IS FORECASTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST
AND ACCELERATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT BEGINS
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. TC 07P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
THROUGH 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING
OF NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), GFDN, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF
PERSISTENCE AND THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z0 IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z0,
042100Z7, 050300Z8 AND 050900Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20040104 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (HETA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z7 --- NEAR 12.3S6 174.3W5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S6 174.3W5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 13.8S2 173.6W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 15.7S3 172.4W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 17.9S7 170.6W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 20.1S3 169.0W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 25.7S4 161.8W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
041500Z0 POSITION NEAR 12.7S0 174.1W3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (HETA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF APIA, WESTERN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 041130Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 102 KNOTS. A 040842Z8 QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICTS
A 15 NM EYE. TC 07P IS FORECASTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST AND
ACCELERATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT BEGINS
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. TC 07P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH
24 TO 36 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
UKMET (EGRR), GFDN, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
041200Z7 IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z7, 050300Z8,
050900Z4, AND 051500Z1.//
=========================================================================
TPS31 PGTW 20040104 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (HETA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z3 --- NEAR 13.2S6 174.1W3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S6 174.1W3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 15.0S6 173.1W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 17.0S8 171.7W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 19.5S5 169.8W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 22.1S5 167.4W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 26.9S7 161.4W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
042100Z7 POSITION NEAR 13.7S1 173.8W9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (HETA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF APIA, WESTERN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 041730Z5 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 127
KNOTS. A RECENT TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) PASS
REVEALS A SYMMETRICAL 10 NM DIAMETER EYE. TC 07P IS FORECASTED TO
TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE
TO THE EAST AND THEN ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT TRANSITIONS TO
AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. ANALYSIS OF THE FORECASTED UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT OF BOTH THE UKMET AND NCEP GFS MODELS SHOWS THAT TC 07P
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO INTENSIFY FOR ANOTHER 12 TO 18 HOURS IN A
FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT. TC 07P WILL THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AFTER
24 HOURS AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), GFDN, AND NCEP GFS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z3 IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
050300Z8, 050900Z4, 051500Z1 AND 052100Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20040105 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (HETA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z5 --- NEAR 13.8S2 174.2W4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S2 174.2W4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 15.3S9 173.5W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 17.1S9 172.3W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 19.5S5 170.1W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 22.4S8 167.4W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 27.9S8 160.0W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
050300Z8 POSITION NEAR 14.2S7 174.0W2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (HETA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 042330Z2 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 140 KNOTS. A
RECENT MULTISPECTRAL PASS REVEALS A SYMMETRICAL 15 NM DIAMETER EYE.
ANALYSIS OF ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS CONTINUED
DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS. BOTH THE UKMET (EGGR) AND NCEP GFS MODELS
FORECAST THE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER
6 TO 12 HOURS. THEREFORE, TC 07P STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO INTENSIFY
FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER ONE HALF ON THE DVORAK SCALE. TC 07P WILL REACH
PEAK INTENSITY IN 6 TO 12 HOURS AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 07P
IS FORECASTED TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THEN ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT
TRANSITIONS TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN 48 HOURS. TC 07P SHOULD COMPLETE
TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN 72 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), GFDN, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF
PERSISTENCE AND THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 050000Z5 IS 39 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z4, 051500Z1,
052100Z8 AND 060300Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20040105 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (HETA) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z1 --- NEAR 14.5S0 173.6W7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S0 173.6W7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 16.4S1 172.6W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 18.6S5 170.8W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 21.5S8 168.5W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 24.1S7 165.8W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 29.7S8 160.2W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
050900Z4 POSITION NEAR 15.0S6 173.3W4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (HETA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 050530Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 140 KNOTS. TC 07P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD ALONG A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 07P IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THEN WEAKEN
AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND TRANSITIONS INTO
AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), GFDN, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z1 IS 45 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 051500Z1, 052100Z8, 060300Z9 AND 060900Z5.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20040105 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (HETA) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z8 --- NEAR 15.5S1 172.9W9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S1 172.9W9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 17.4S2 171.6W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 20.1S3 169.4W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 23.0S5 167.2W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 26.0S8 164.6W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 31.8S2 158.8W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
051500Z1 POSITION NEAR 16.0S7 172.6W6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (HETA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 051130Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 140 KNOTS. TC 07P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC
07P HAS PEAKED AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND TRANSITIONS INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), GFDN,
AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 051200Z8 IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z8, 060300Z9,
060900Z5, AND 061500Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20040105 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (HETA) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z4 --- NEAR 16.8S5 172.1W1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S5 172.1W1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 19.1S1 170.3W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 21.5S8 168.5W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 23.9S4 166.3W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 26.3S1 163.8W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 30.8S1 158.2W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
052100Z8 POSITION NEAR 17.4S2 171.6W5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (HETA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM
SOUTH OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 051730Z6 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 130 AND 140 KNOTS.
TC 07P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG A
MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 07P HAS PEAKED AND IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND TRANSITIONS
INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), GFDN, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST
IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z4 IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z5,
061500Z2 AND 062100Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20040106 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (HETA) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z6 --- NEAR 18.1S0 171.0W9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S0 171.0W9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 20.4S6 169.2W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 22.7S1 167.2W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 25.1S8 164.8W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 27.1S0 162.0W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 30.9S2 156.7W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
060300Z9 POSITION NEAR 18.7S6 170.5W3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (HETA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 052330Z3 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 140 KNOTS. TC 07P
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG A MID-LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 07P HAS PEAKED AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND TRANSITIONS INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
UKMET (EGRR), GFDN, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z6 IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z5,
061500Z2, 062100Z9 AND 070300Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20040106 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (HETA) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z2 --- NEAR 19.7S7 169.8W4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S7 169.8W4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 22.5S9 167.4W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 25.1S8 164.9W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 27.6S5 162.4W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 30.3S6 159.6W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060900Z5 POSITION NEAR 20.4S6 169.2W8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (HETA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 060530Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 KNOTS. A RECENT
MICROWAVE PASS DEPICTS A 10 NM EYE FEATURE. THE SYSTEM HAS ACCELERATED
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE
TO THE EAST. TC 07P SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH MID-LATITUDE NORTHWESTERLIES
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH TO THE WEST. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON ITS WAY TO BECOMING AN
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET
(EGRR), GFDN, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z2 IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
062100Z9 AND 070900Z6.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20040106 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (HETA) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z5 --- NEAR 22.3S7 167.0W4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.3S7 167.0W4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 25.1S8 164.5W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 27.8S7 162.0W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 30.3S6 159.4W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 33.1S7 156.6W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
062100Z9 POSITION NEAR 23.0S5 166.4W7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (HETA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 061730Z7 ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90, 102 AND
115 KNOTS. TC 07P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH MID-LATITUDE NORTHWESTERLIES
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH TO THE WEST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND TRANSITION TO AN
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET
(EGRR), GFDN, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z5 IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
070900Z6 AND 072100Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20040107 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (HETA) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z3 --- NEAR 26.2S0 163.7W7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 26 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.2S0 163.7W7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 29.3S4 160.7W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 32.0S5 158.0W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 34.7S4 155.2W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
070900Z6 POSITION NEAR 27.0S9 162.9W8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (HETA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 860 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 26 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 070530Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65, 77, AND 90 KNOTS.
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS COOLER, DRIER AIR BEING ENTRAINED FROM
THE WEST WHICH IS CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN. ADDITIONALY, A RECENT
MICROWAVE PASS INDICATED THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS DECOUPLED TO
THE WEST OF THE MID-LEVELS. TC 07P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT INTERACTS WITH MID-LATITUDE
NORTHWESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH TO THE WEST. THE SPEED OF ADVANCE
SHOULD DECREASE AS THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW
LEVELS AND BECOMES WEAKER THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
TRANSITIONS TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), AND GFDN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z3 IS 13
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z0 AND 080900Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20040107 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (HETA) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z6 --- NEAR 28.8S8 160.6W3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.8S8 160.6W3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 31.6S0 158.0W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 34.1S8 155.8W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 36.4S3 154.2W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
072100Z0 POSITION NEAR 29.5S6 159.9W4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (HETA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM
SOUTH OF RAROTONGA, COOK ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 071730Z8 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS.
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS COOLER, DRIER AIR BEING
ENTRAINED FROM THE WEST WHICH IS CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY
WEAKEN. A RECENT MICROWAVE PASS INDICATES A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 07P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT INTERACTS WITH
MID-LATITUDE NORTHWESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH TO THE WEST.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND TRANSITIONS TO AN EXTRATROPICAL
SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR),
AND GFDN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z6 IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
080900Z7 AND 082100Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20040108 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (HETA) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z4 --- NEAR 31.7S1 158.7W1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 31.7S1 158.7W1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 33.9S5 157.4W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
080900Z7 POSITION NEAR 32.3S8 158.4W8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (HETA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 615 NM
SOUTH OF RAROTONGA, COOK ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
080530Z6 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 45 KNOTS.
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS THAT TC 07P HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY TRANSITIONED INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THE LOW LEVEL REMAINS EXPOSED WITH COLD, DRY AIR
ENTRAINING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND COMPLETE ABSENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), NCEP GFS AND GFDN ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF
PERSISTENCE AND THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 080600Z4 IS 20 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_heta_jtwc_advisories.htm
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