Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone NICKY-HELMA : JTWC Advisories |
Season 2003-2004 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
---> Tropical Cyclone NICKY-HELMA Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20040308 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 080251Z MAR 04// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.2S5 90.8E7 TO 16.5S2 86.3E7 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 080200Z0 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.4S8 90.7E6. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 13.4N8 090.7E6, APPROXIMATELY 370 NM WEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. RECENT QUIKSCAT IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION CO-LOCATED WITH THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS GOOD DIFFLUENCE BUT MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 090300Z2.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20040308 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080251Z MAR 04// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 081200Z1 --- NEAR 13.0S4 90.9E8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S4 90.9E8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z9 --- 12.9S2 90.5E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z2 --- 13.3S7 90.2E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z1 --- 14.4S9 89.6E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z4 --- 15.9S5 88.6E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM --- REMARKS: 081500Z4 POSITION NEAR 13.0S4 90.8E7. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S, IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM WEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS AND HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTH EASTWARD AT 3 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 081130Z3 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS AND AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATING POSSIBLE 35 KNOT WINDS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED CONVECTION OVER THE WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 17S IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EQUATORWARD IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT THROUGH 12 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAKENING LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 17S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR AND NCEP GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z1 IS 10 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,(WTXS21 PGTW 080300). NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z2 AND 091500Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GAFILO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20040309 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 090000Z9 --- NEAR 12.8S1 90.5E4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S1 90.5E4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z2 --- 13.3S7 89.8E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z1 --- 14.0S5 89.0E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z4 --- 15.1S7 87.9E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z2 --- 16.4S1 86.6E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM --- REMARKS: 090300Z2 POSITION NEAR 12.9S2 90.3E2. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM WEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 082330Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. TC 17S IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EQUATORWARD IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT THROUGH 24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAKENING LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 17S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. BETTER DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL INCREASE INTENSITY RATES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR AND NCEP GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 09000Z9 IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z5 AND 100300Z4. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GAFILO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20040309 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NICKY) WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 091200Z2 --- NEAR 13.6S0 91.0E0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S0 91.0E0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z1 --- 14.2S7 90.5E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z4 --- 15.3S9 89.5E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z2 --- 16.6S3 88.3E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z5 --- 17.9S7 87.1E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 091500Z5 POSITION NEAR 13.7S1 90.9E8. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (NICKY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 091130Z4 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON RECENT QUIKSCAT DATA ESTIMATES OF 50 KNOTS AND SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. TC 17S IS NOW BEGINING TO MAKE ITS POLEWARD TURN AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. ANALYSIS OF THE UPPER LEVELS SHOW WEAK OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS ALLOWING TC 17S TO INTENSIFY. THE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MIDWAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, TC 17S SHOULD REACH MAXIMUM INTENSITY AND LEVEL OFF OR EVEN WEAKEN IN INTENSITY. MOST MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT AT THIS TIME, THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AS THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES CAUSING INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR AND LINEAR OR EVEN CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, WBAR, EGRR, AFWA, GFDN, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z2 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z4 AND 101500Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GAFILO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20040310 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NICKY) WARNING NR 004 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 100000Z1 --- NEAR 14.6S1 90.3E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S1 90.3E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z4 --- 15.7S3 89.3E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z2 --- 17.1S9 87.7E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z5 --- 18.6S5 86.4E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z3 --- 20.2S4 84.7E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 100300Z4 POSITION NEAR 14.9S4 90.0E9. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (NICKY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 092330Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. TC 17S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SLOW INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AFTER 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAKEN. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, WBAR, EGRR, AFWA, GFDN, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z1 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z7 AND 110300Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GAFILO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20040310 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NICKY) WARNING NR 005 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101200Z4 --- NEAR 15.3S9 90.3E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S9 90.3E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z2 --- 16.9S6 89.5E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z5 --- 18.1S0 87.9E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z3 --- 19.2S2 86.1E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z6 --- 20.3S5 84.9E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 101500Z7 POSITION NEAR 15.7S3 90.1E0. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (NICKY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 101730Z2 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. TC 17S IS FORECASTED TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THEN MORE SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 17S IS FORECASTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE UNFAVORABLE DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR AND LINEAR OR EVEN CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, WBAR, TLAPS, TCLAPS, EGRR, GFDN, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z4 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z5 AND 111500Z8. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GAFILO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20040311 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NICKY-HELMA) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 110000Z2 --- NEAR 17.3S1 89.0E7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S1 89.0E7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z5 --- 18.8S7 87.7E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z3 --- 20.4S6 86.4E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z6 --- 22.0S4 85.2E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z4 --- 24.0S6 84.6E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM --- REMARKS: 110300Z5 POSITION NEAR 17.7S5 88.7E3. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (NICKY-HELMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWEST AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 102330Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. TC 17S IS FORECASTED TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 17S IS FORECASTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE UNFAVORABLE DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL VENTILATION. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, WBAR, TLAPS, TCLAPS, EGRR, GFDN, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SCENARIO BUT THEIR TRACKS SHOW SIGNIFICANT SPREAD. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z2 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z8 AND 120300Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GAFILO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20040311 15:00z SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NICKY-HELMA) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111200Z5 --- NEAR 18.5S4 87.5E0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S4 87.5E0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z3 --- 20.2S4 85.9E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z6 --- 22.0S4 84.6E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z4 --- 24.4S0 84.2E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z7 --- 27.0S9 84.5E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 111500Z8 POSITION NEAR 18.9S8 87.1E6. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (NICKY-HELMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 660 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWEST AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 111130Z7 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. TC 17S IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 17S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BEGINS TRANSITION INTO A EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, WBAR, TLAPS, TCLAPS, EGRR, GFDN, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z5 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z6 AND 121500Z9. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GAFILO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20040312 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NICKY-HELMA) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 120000Z3 --- NEAR 19.6S6 87.0E5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S6 87.0E5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z6 --- 21.0S3 86.4E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z4 --- 22.8S2 85.6E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z7 --- 24.8S4 85.0E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z5 --- 27.6S5 85.2E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 120300Z6 POSITION NEAR 19.9S9 86.9E3. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (NICKY-HELMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 680 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 112330Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65, 77 AND 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. TC 17S IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 17S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BEGINS TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, WBAR, EGRR, GFDN, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z3 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z9 AND 130300Z7.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20040312 15:00z SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NICKY-HELMA) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 121200Z6 --- NEAR 19.8S8 85.6E9 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S8 85.6E9 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z4 --- 21.0S3 84.7E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z7 --- 22.7S1 84.1E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z5 --- 24.4S0 83.8E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z8 --- 26.0S8 83.1E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 121500Z9 POSITION NEAR 20.1S3 85.4E7. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (NICKY-HELMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 800 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 121130Z8 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55, 65 AND 77 KNOTS. EARLIER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALED THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EXPOSED ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 17S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 48 AS INCREASED WESTERLY SHEAR KEEPS THE LLCC FROM RE- COUPLING WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, WBAR, EGRR, GFDN, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z6 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z7 AND 131500Z0.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20040313 03:00z AMD MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NICKY-HELMA) WARNING NR 010A AMENDED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130000Z4 --- NEAR 21.1S4 83.8E9 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S4 83.8E9 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z7 --- 22.8S2 82.4E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z5 --- 24.2S8 81.6E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z8 --- 25.7S4 81.0E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 130300Z7 POSITION NEAR 21.5S8 83.4E5. THIS WARNING HAS BEEN AMENDED TO REMOVE THE 48 HOUR FORECAST POSITION. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY 36 HOURS. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (NICKY-HELMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 900 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 122330Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30, 35 AND 45 KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FULLY EXPOSED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 17S HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND THE SYSTEM IS WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, WBAR, EGRR, GFDN, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z4 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z0 AND 140300Z8.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20040313 15:00z COR MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CORRECTED// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NICKY-HELM) WARNING NR 011A 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 131200Z7 --- NEAR 23.1S6 84.2E4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 23.1S6 84.2E4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z5 --- 24.2S8 85.4E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 131500Z0 POSITION NEAR 23.4S9 84.5E7. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (NICKY-HELMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 975NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 131130Z9 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS FULLY EXPOSED. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 17S HAS BEEN DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH BY INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD AND DISSIPATE IN A CONTINUED UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, WBAR, EGRR, GFDN, AFWA MM5 AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 12 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: ADJUSTED WARNING INTENSITY TO 30 KNOTS VICE 25 KNOTS.// =========================================================================
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
Document: tropical_cyclone_nicky-helma_jtwc_advisories.htm
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