Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone CLOVIS : JTWC Advisories |
Season 2006-2007 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
---> Tropical Cyclone CLOVIS Track Map and Data |
WTXS31 PGTW 20061231 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301351Z DEC 06// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 310600Z --- NEAR 13.9S 55.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S 55.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 14.4S 54.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 15.0S 53.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 15.7S 53.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 16.5S 52.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 310900Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 54.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM NORTH OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 05S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 310228 SSMI IMAGE DEPICT DEEP CON- VECTION WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE BASED ON PER- SISTENCE AND AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 301351Z DEC 06 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 301400) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z AND 010900Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20061231 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CLOVIS) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 311800Z --- NEAR 15.5S 54.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 54.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 16.9S 53.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 18.0S 53.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 18.6S 51.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 19.1S 50.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 312100Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 54.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (CLOVIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 06S IS TRACKING TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AXIS CAUSED BY A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. STORM MOTION WILL CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL, ALLOWING FOR THE RIDGE TO BUILD FROM THE EAST, SLOW THE STORM SLIGHTLY AND STEER IT MORE TO THE WEST. THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSFIED IN THE LAST 12 HOURS DUE TO GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE NEAR TERM. PAST TAU 24, THE BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD ELIMINATE THIS OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND SLOW THE RATE OF STRENGTHENING. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z AND 012100Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 200701 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CLOVIS) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010600Z --- NEAR 17.5S 52.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 52.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 18.4S 51.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 19.1S 50.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 19.5S 49.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 20.0S 48.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT --- REMARKS: 010900Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 52.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (CLOVIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 06S HAS INTENSIFIED AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THROUGH TAU 24, TC 06S WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) NEAR SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR. AFTER TAU 24, A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH CAUSING THE STR TO RE-ORIENT AND STEER TC 06S WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. FROM THAT POINT, TC 06S WILL WEAKEN DUE TO RESTRICTED OUTFLOW AND INTERACTION WITH THE TERRAIN OF MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z AND 020900Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20070101 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CLOVIS) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 011800Z --- NEAR 18.7S 51.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 51.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 19.7S 50.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 20.4S 49.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 21.1S 48.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 21.7S 47.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 012100Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 51.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (CLOVIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM EAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 06S HAS MAINTAINED ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, HOWEVER THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRC- ULATION CENTER (LLCC). OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY AS GOOD UPPER LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW MAINTAINS. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED AROUND TAU 36 WHICH WILL LEAD TO A DECREASE IN INTENSITY AT A GREATER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. THE STEERING INFLU- ENCE FOR THE SYSTEM IS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD AS A MID- LATITUDE TROUGH SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR TRACKS EASTWARD ALLOWING A MORE ZONAL PATTERN TO ESTABLISH. THIS WILL ALLOW THE TRACK TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z AND 022100Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20070102 09:00z COR MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CLOVIS) WARNING NR 005A CORRECTED 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 020600Z --- NEAR 19.8S 51.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S 51.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 20.6S 50.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 21.4S 49.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 22.3S 48.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 23.2S 47.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 020900Z POSITION NEAR 20.0S 50.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (CLOVIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST- WARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 06S HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TOWARD A COL REGION LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR CREATED BY A TRANSITORY MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE STORM, CREATING A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 36. BEYOND TAU 36, A SECOND MIDLATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL INDUCE A POLEWARD TURN FOR 06S, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO SKIRT THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. PAST TAU 24, INTERACTION WITH THE COAST AND HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL CON- TRIBUTE TO WEAKENING. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z AND 030900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ISOBEL) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED SPELLING IN REMARKS AND ADDED REFERENCE TO 07S.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20070102 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/021352JUN2007// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CLOVIS) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 021800Z --- NEAR 20.1S 49.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S 49.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 20.3S 48.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 21.0S 47.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 21.8S 47.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 022100Z POSITION NEAR 20.1S 49.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (CLOVIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE HAS BUILT IN POLEWARD OF TC 06S CAUSING A WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 06 TO 12 HOURS AND LANDFALL IS EXPECT SOUTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO BY TAU 12. AFTER LAND- FALL, THE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTH IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRON- MENT AND DISSIPATE OVERLAND BY TAU 36. AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH BEYOND TAU 36 WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH THE REMNANTS OF TC 06S. IF THIS TROUGH WERE TO CAPTURE THE REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR REGENERATION OVER WATER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z AND 032100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ISOBEL) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE- HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20070103 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/021352JUN2007// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CLOVIS) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 030600Z --- NEAR 20.5S 48.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 48.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 20.7S 48.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 21.2S 47.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 030900Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 48.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (CLOVIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM SOUTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING ANCHORED SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL PRIOR TO TAU 06 AND STEADILY DISSIPATE DUE TO INTERACTION WITH HIGH TERRAIN AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO STEER THE REMNANTS OF TC 06S OVER WATER AND ALLOW FOR REGENERATION OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR AFTER TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT 032100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ISOBEL) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20070103 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/031352JUN2007// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CLOVIS) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 031800Z --- NEAR 20.9S 48.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT REPEAT POSIT: 20.9S 48.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 21.2S 48.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 21.5S 48.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 032100Z POSITION NEAR 21.0S 48.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (CLOVIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING ANCHORED SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. THE STORM HAS WEAKENED AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER LAND AND INTERACT WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MADAGASCAR. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED AND THE CONVECTION IS DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 06S IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO LAND INFLUENCES AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE LLCC IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND MORE THAN 20 NM BEFORE DISSIPATING. THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL EXISTS THAT TC06S MAY TRACK BACK OVER WATER ALLOWING REGENERATION OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR AFTER TAU 24. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ISOBEL) WARNING (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20070104 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/031352JUN2007// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CLOVIS) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 040600Z --- NEAR 20.7S 48.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND REPEAT POSIT: 20.7S 48.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 21.0S 48.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 040900Z POSITION NEAR 20.8S 48.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (CLOVIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM SOUTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED AND INFRARED MULTI- SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT TC 06S HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DEEP CONVECTION HAS WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY, BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED, AND HAS SHEARED NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 06S WILL TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD AND WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
Document: tropical_cyclone_clovis_jtwc_advisories.htm
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