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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone DORA : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2006-2007 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone DORA Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20070128 11:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 281051Z JAN 07//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.0S 66.8E TO 10.7S 64.7E WITH-
IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS-
SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
280600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.2S
66.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 8.2S 66.6E, APPROXIMATELY
260 NM WEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CON-
VECTION FLARING OVER A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
AND CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF
THE DISTURBANCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT AND
GOOD WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. BASED ON IMPROVING LOW LEVEL
ORGANIZATION AND THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 291100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070128 21:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/281051Z JAN 07//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 9.7S 67.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.7S 67.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 11.0S 67.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 12.3S 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 13.5S 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 14.7S 67.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 10.0S 67.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10s, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. WHILE THE SYSTEM IS STILL CONSOLIDATING,
A 281326Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED AN OBSERVATION OF OVER 40 KNOTS AND
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES JUSTIFIED THE ISSUANCE OF A WARNING.
MODEL GUIDANCE ON THIS SYSTEM WAS SPARSE BUT CONFIDENCE IN A GEN-
ERAL SOUTHWARD TRACK IS HIGH. SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY AT A STEADY
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. THIS WARNING SUPER-
SEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 281051Z JAN 07 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 281100). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z AN
292100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070129 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 11.8S 66.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S 66.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 13.2S 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 14.5S 66.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 15.5S 66.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 16.4S 65.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 12.1S 66.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10s, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM SOUTHWEST
OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 10S IS TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL STEERING RIDGE TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH IS
INDUCING A BREAK IN SUBTROPICAL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INDIAN
OCEAN, BUT THIS RIDGING WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF THE STORM AS
THE TROUGH TRANSITS EASTWARD AND WILL PROVIDE A COMPETING WESTWARD
STEERING INFLUENCE AFTER TAU 24. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
AT A GREATER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 24 UNDER THE IN-
FLUENCE OF EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND A DEVELOPING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL ENHANCED BY THE FOREMENTIONED MIDLATITUDE TROUGH.
THE STORM WILL INTENSIFY MORE SLOWLY BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 48 DUE
TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 290600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z AND 300900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070129 21:00z
PASS TO OFFICE CODES:
PSBR BCST//SID 80//
DIRNSA FT GEORGE G MEADE MD//DDI-LIZ/P313/Q332/WWEA//
NAVOCEANO STENNIS SPACE CENTER MS//N16//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DORA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 12.7S 64.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S 64.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 13.5S 63.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 14.4S 62.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 14.8S 61.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 15.2S 61.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 64.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S DORA, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 740 NM NORTHEAST OF
LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. TC 10S HAS INTENSIFIED AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE
PAST TWELVE HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS A MORE WESTWARD TRACK
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TC 10S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PER-
IPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM. RECENT SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT
THE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED FASTER THAN EXPECTED AND
IS CENTERED NEAR 15S 61E. TC 10S WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWEST-
WARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT OUTFLOW IS SLIGHTLY
HINDERED ON THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT, HOWEVER, OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD
OVERALL. TC 10S WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, AN
APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE
AND PRODUCE A MORE POLEWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 291800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z AND 302100Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070130 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DORA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 12.7S 65.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S 65.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 13.0S 65.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 13.5S 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 14.1S 64.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 14.8S 62.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 65.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 750 NM
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS, TC 10S HAS INTENSIFIED
AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. THROUGH TAU 24, TC 10S WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND ANOTHER STR TO
THE SOUTHWEST. BEYOND TAU 24, THE STR SOUTHWEST OF TC 10S WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD AND BEGIN STEERING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS
SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, WHICH ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. THROUGH TAU 36, TC 10S WILL INTENSIFY AT A CLIMA-
TOLOGICAL RATE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. BEYOND TAU 36, RESTRICTED POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL DECREASE
THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND
OF PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 26 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z AND 310900Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070130 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DORA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 13.2S 65.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S 65.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 13.5S 65.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 14.0S 65.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 14.6S 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 15.2S 64.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 13.3S 65.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 750 NM
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, TC 10S HAS INTENSIFIED
AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. THE 30/12Z 500MB ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTHEAST AND ANOTHER RIDGE POSITIONED SOUTH.
TC 10S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE, WHICH WAS CREATED BY A NEGATIVELY-TILTED MIDLATITUDE SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY TRACK SOUTH SOUTHEAST-
WARD TO SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 24, BUT WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTH
SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE. THE
DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT INDICATE
FASTER TRACK SPEEDS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC REASONING. TC 10S WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH 24 HOURS
BUT IS EXPECTED TO ONLY INTENSIFY SLOWLY AFTER TAU 24 DUE TO
DECREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
301800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310900Z AND 312100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070131 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DORA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z --- NEAR 13.8S 65.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S 65.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 14.3S 66.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 14.9S 66.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 15.7S 66.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 16.4S 66.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
310900Z POSITION NEAR 13.9S 65.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 740 NM
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THROUGH TAU 48, TC 10S WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
EAST OF THE TC AND A SECOND STR TO SOUTH OF THE TC. AFTER TAU 48,
AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL WILL CAUSE THE SOUTHERN STR TO SHIFT AND BECOME
THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, WHICH HAVE RECENTLY COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT. BEYOND TAU 48, AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE WHERE
THE PASSING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH COULD DEEPEN THE WEAKNESS IN THE
STR AND CAUSE THE TC TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD. TC 10S
IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
THROUGH TAU 48 DUE TO REDUCED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND DECREASING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AFTER TAU 36. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A
BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z AND 010900Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070131 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DORA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 14.2S 66.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 66.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 14.8S 66.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 15.5S 67.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 16.3S 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.2S 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
312100Z POSITION NEAR 14.4S 66.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 735 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY INDUCING ITS SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD
TRACK. ADDITIONALLY, AN EXTENTION OF THIS LOW HAS BEEN IMPINGING
ON CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF 10S AND INHIBITING
INTENSIFICATION DESPITE GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT FORECAST
CALLS FOR A CONTINUED SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE OUT TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE PRESENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO INHIBITING AN ANTICYCLONE EAST OF
MADAGASCAR FROM BUILDING SOUTH OF THE STORM, WHICH WOULD INDUCE A
SOUTHWESTWARD TURN IN THE TRACK. THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AIDS PRESENT
TWO FORECAST SOLUTIONS. THE GFS, NOGAPS, GFDN, AND WBAR ARE ALL
DEPICTING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW QUICKLY MOVING EASTWARD AND THE
ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT, INDUCING A TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST
AT 48 HOURS. IN CONTRAST, UKMO KEEPS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM AND THE ANTICYCLONE TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM, THUS
MAINTAINING SLOW MOVEMENT AND A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK IN THE EXTENDED
TAUS. TC 10S WILL INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH
24 HOURS DUE TO CONTINUED IMPINGEMENT BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MIGRATES SLOWLY EASTWARD, POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL BE
FURTHER ENHANCED, CAUSING SLIGHTLY MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 010900Z AND 012100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070201 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DORA) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DORA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 14.9S 67.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 67.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 15.4S 68.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 16.1S 68.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 16.8S 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 17.6S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 67.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 760 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 10S IS TRACKING GENERALLY
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUA-
TORIAL RIDGE ANCHORED EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND PARALLEL TO THE
AXIS OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
SYSTEM. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORE-
CAST PERIOD WITH FORWARD TRACK SPEED DECREASING SLIGHTLY AS
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER MADAGASCAR BUILDS EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM AND PROVIDES A SLIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWESTWARD PUSH.
THE FOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS INTRODUCING STABLER AIR
TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER GOOD EASTWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW ARE EXPECTED TO OFFSET THE NEGATIVE INFLUENCE OF FUTURE
STABLE AIR ENTRAINMENT AND ALLOW FOR SLOW INTENSIFICATION. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO,
ALTHOUGH MOST DEPICT SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD TRACK SPEEDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 012100Z AND 020900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070201 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/010151JAN2007//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DORA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 16.1S 68.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 68.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 17.4S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 18.8S 69.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 20.1S 69.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 21.5S 70.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 16.4S 68.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 775 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 10S HAS INCREASED TRACK SPEED OVER THE PAST 18
HOURS AND REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN AN EXTENSION OF THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TC 10S. THIS FORECAST
DEVIATES FROM THE GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING, KEEPING
THE SYSTEM TRACKING ON A MORE SOUTHWESTERN TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERN
TRACK THROUGH TAU 48. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SERIES OF
TROUGHS TRANSITING IN THE MID-LATITUDES WILL KEEP THE RIDGE EXTENSION
FROM FORMING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE EQUATORIAL
OUTFLOW FOR THE SYSTEM HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TC 10S WILL HELP TO
ENHANCE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THESE COMPETING INFLUENCES WILL HELP TO
MAINTAIN THE LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OF INCREASE THROUGH TAU
36. BEYOND TAU 36 INCREASED SHEAR AND REDUCED OUTFLOW WILL BEGIN TO
HAMPER DEVELOPMENT.THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW A SOUTHWEST-
WARD RECURVATURE SCENARIO IN THE 24 TO 48 HOUR TIMEFRAME. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
020900Z AND 022100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070202 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DORA) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DORA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 17.6S 68.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 68.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 18.7S 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 19.9S 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 21.2S 67.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 22.6S 67.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 17.9S 68.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 740 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 10S CONTINUES TO MEANDER SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH-
EAST. THE SYSTEM HAS TURNED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST
TWELVE HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A COMPETING, SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER MADAGASCAR AND EXTENDING EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH
OF THE STORM. THIS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INFLU-
ENCING STORM MOTION EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, AN
APPROACHING SERIES OF MIDLATITUDE TROUGHS WILL WEAKEN THE EASTWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS RIDGE AND ALLOW THE STORM TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHWARD AFTER TAU 24. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS
ENTRAINMENT OF STABLER AIR, INTRODUCED BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TO
THE WEST OF THE STORM, AND DIMISHING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW TAKE EFFECT.
BRIEF ENHANCEMENTS OF POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CURRENTLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND PASSAGE OF MIDLATITUDE TROUGHS TO
THE SOUTH ARE POSSIBLE, AND SHOULD PREVENT THE STORM FROM WEAKENING
RAPIDLY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 022100Z AND 030900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070202 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/010151JAN2007//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DORA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 18.1S 67.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 67.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 18.9S 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 19.7S 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 20.3S 66.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 20.9S 66.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 67.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 720 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 10S HAS SLOWLY TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST-
WARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A FINGER OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE (NER) LOCATED EAST OF THE TC. OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS, TC
10S HAS SLOWED DUE TO COMPETING INFLUENCES OF THE NER AND A SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED OVER MADAGASCAR AND EXTENDING EASTWARD
TO THE SOUTH OF THE TC. THE COMPETING INFLUENCES OF THE NER AND THE
STR WILL PERSIST THROUGH TAU 48, STEERING TC 10S SLOWLY AND SLIGHTLY
WEST OF SOUTH. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, TC 10S HAS INTENSIFIED AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. THE TC IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH
TAU 12 AND THEN WEAKEN AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGIAL RATE DUE TO
DECREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, WHICH ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF EGRR, WHICH TRACKS THE TC WEST DUE TO A STRONGER STR.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND ALL AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 40 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z AND 032100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070203 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/010151JAN2007//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DORA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 18.6S 67.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S 67.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 18.8S 66.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 19.4S 66.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 20.4S 65.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 22.0S 65.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 18.6S 67.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 685 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 10S REMAINS UNDER THE COMPETING STEERING
INFLUENCES OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST AND THE SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BRANCH TO ITS SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM HAS INTENS-
IFIED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, AS IT HAS TAKEN ON SOME CHAR-
ACTERISTICS OF AN ANNULAR TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A DONUT SHAPED AP-
PEARANCE AND APPARENT REDUCTION IN OUTFLOW CHANNELS. TC 10S IS FORE-
CAST TO CONTINUE ON A SLOW, SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT THROUGH THE FIRST 24
HOURS, DUE TO THE COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES. AFTER TAU 24, A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR WILL HELP BREAK
DOWN THE STR BRANCH ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THE
RESULTING STR WEAKNESS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK. THE
GFDN, NOGAPS, AND GFS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK AFTER TAU 24. IN CONTRAST, THE UKMO MODEL INDICATES A STRONGER
STR THAT BUILDS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, INDUCING A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK. LESS EMPHASIS IS PLACED ON THIS SCENARIO, SINCE THE UKMO SEEMS
TO BE UNDERESTIMATING THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH SOUTHEAST OF MAD-
AGASCAR IN COMPARISON TO WATER VAPOR. TC 10S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AT
A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE DUE TO ITS DIMINISHED POLEWARD OUT-
FLOW CHANNEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 43 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z AND 040900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070203 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/030151FEB2007//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DORA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 18.7S 67.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 67.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 19.0S 66.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 19.6S 66.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 20.3S 65.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 21.1S 64.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 67.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 665 NM EAST
OF LA REUNION, HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. THROUGH TAU 12, TC 10S WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY
UNDER THE COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
TO ITS EAST AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO ITS SOUTHWEST. AFTER
THAT, TC 10S WILL SLOWLY TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF THE TC.
TC 10S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE DUE
TO A DIMINISHED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THROUGH TAU 48. THIS
SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, WHICH ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH EGRR BEING THE WESTERNMOST OUTLIER AND GFDN THE
EASTERNMOST. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND A
CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 43 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z AND 042100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070204 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/030151FEB2007//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DORA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 18.8S 66.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S 66.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 19.0S 65.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 19.2S 64.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.9S 63.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 20.9S 63.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 66.3E.
0123456789012345678901234567890123456789012345678901234567890123456789
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 635 NM EAST
OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 040604Z AMSU MICROWAVE
PASS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS, AS CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS ERODED. SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
A BUILDING MIDLATITUDE ANTICYCLONE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM NEAR 40S
HAS LED TO THE INFLOW OF COOLER, DRIER AIR INTO THE CENTER OF TC 10S.
TC 10S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD, STEERED BY A NARROW MIDLATITUDE
EXTENTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. A GENERALLY WESTWARD
TRACK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 24, WITH THE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO
WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO CONTINUED COOLER INFLOW AND INCREASING VERTICAL
SHEAR. AFTER TAU 24, TC 10S WILL TAKE A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TURN, AS
A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN THE STEERING RIDGE SOUTH OF 10S. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, WITH EGRR CONTINUING
TO DEPICT LESS OF A SOUTHWARD TURN THEN THE REMAINING AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 41 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
042100Z AND 050900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070204 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/040151FEB2007//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DORA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 19.0S 66.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 66.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 19.1S 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.4S 65.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 19.9S 64.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 20.7S 63.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 66.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM EAST
OF LA REUNION, HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE PAST TWELVE
HOURS. THROUGH TAU 12, TC 10S WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY BETWEEN
TWO COMPETING STEERING RIDGES LOCATED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
TC 10S WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU
12 DUE TO REDUCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR. FROM
TAU 12 TO TAU 48, TC 10S WILL SLOWLY TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE TC. THE RATE OF WEAKENING WILL SLOW BETWEEN TAU 12 AND
TAU 48 AS A PASSING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL TEMPORARILY IMPROVE THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, WHICH ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH EGRR BEING THE
WESTERNMOST TRACK. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE
AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z AND
052100Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070205 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/040151FEB2007//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DORA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 19.1S 66.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 66.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.4S 65.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 20.0S 64.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 20.9S 62.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 21.9S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 65.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM EAST
OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. THE STORM HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A
050349Z TRMM PASS INDICATE CONVECTION IS BEING SHEARED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 10S IS ON THE PERIPHERY OF A INCREASING SHEAR
GRADIENT NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET. TC 10S IS CURRENTLY BEING
STEERED ON THE NORTHERN FLANK ON OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH.
A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER MADAGASCAR WILL CAUSE A REORIENT-
ATION OF THE STEERING RIDGE, INDUCING A SLIGHTLY MORE POLEWARD TRACK
FOR 10S AFTER TAU 12. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ITS GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND AS IT TRACKS INTO AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT, AND DIS-
SIPATION AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN BY TAU 48. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST SCENARIO. MAX-
IMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
052100Z AND 060900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070205 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DORA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 19.4S 65.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S 65.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 20.0S 64.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 20.7S 62.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 21.4S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 22.1S 60.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 64.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM EAST
OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. TC 10S HAS WEAKENED AT A SLOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER HAS INCREASED IN
AREAL EXTENT OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS BUT HAS REMAINED CYCLIC. THE
051531Z SSMI 37 GHZ AND 85 GHZ IMAGES SUPPORT THE LATEST SYSTEM
POSITION AND ALSO SHOWS THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED WEST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING, WHICH IS PRIMARILY SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A GENERALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, ESPECIALLY POLEWARD. HOWEVER,
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD TRACK FEATURE
WINDS SHOW THAT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS HAMPERED DUE TO CONVERGENT
FLOW ALOFT. TC 10S IS SITUATED WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT
WITH A FINGER OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM AND A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. TC 10S WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS INTO AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIR-
ONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ASSOCIATED WITH
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES/TROUGHING, SOUTH OF 20S. TC 10S IS FORECAST
TO DISSIPATE NEAR TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
051800Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z AND 062100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070206 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DORA) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 20.2S 64.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 64.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 20.9S 64.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 21.5S 63.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 22.1S 63.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 22.8S 62.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 20.4S 64.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525 NM EAST
OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS REDUCED
PARTIALLY EXPOSING THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 10S
REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE OUTFLOW REGION BUT HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO A
REGION OF HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AT A SLOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. TC 10S REMAINS IN A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT, CONTINUING TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL FINGER OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. TC 10S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN DISSI-
PATING NEAR TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS
30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z AND 070900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070207 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DORA) WARNING NR 019
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DORA) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 21.3S 64.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S 64.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 22.1S 63.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 22.9S 62.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 23.5S 62.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 21.5S 64.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM EAST
OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
WEAK BANDING WITH ISOLATED, CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION. A 061438Z SSMI
IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION IS BEING
SHEARED SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER, THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER REMAINS TIGHTLY WRAPPED WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE
TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDLATITUDE SHORT-
WAVE LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 10S WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
ERRATICALLY SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS FORECAST. TC 10S WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SLOWLY WITHIN
AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 36.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 070900Z AND 072100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070207 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
RMKS//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DORA) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 21.7S 63.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S 63.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 22.4S 62.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 23.2S 62.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 21.9S 63.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM EAST
OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED FROM THE
DEEPEST AREAS OF CONVECTION LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM TO THE EAST.
THE LLCC REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED AND CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE THE CONVECTION IS BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTH.
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS A REGION OF
HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 10S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ERRATICALLY
TO THE SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK RIDGING TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 10S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AND
DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070207 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DORA) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 22.9S 63.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.9S 63.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 23.8S 63.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 24.6S 63.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 25.2S 62.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 25.8S 61.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 23.1S 63.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 455 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED AT A LESS THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS. TC 10S IS TRACKING
GENERALLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE CAUSED BY A PASSING LOW TO MID-LEVEL TROUGH. BY TAU
24, THE RIDGE WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED SOUTH OF THE TC AND STEER
TC 10S MORE WESTWARD. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, WHICH ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. TC 10S WILL INTENSIFY AT
A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 12 DUE TO IMPROVED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
FROM TAU 24, TC 10S WILL WEAKEN AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z AND 082100Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070208 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DORA) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 24.7S 63.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.7S 63.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 25.7S 62.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 26.3S 61.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 25.0S 63.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 465 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED AFTER A BRIEF FLARE OF CON-
VECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE LLCC IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED WITH
THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION LOCATED TO ITS SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT 10S IS IN A REGION OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
AS IT IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET. THE SYSTEM WILL
TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A 700 MB RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
THE STORM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 24 DUE
TO THE CONTINUED EFFECTS OF HIGH VWS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 080600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070208 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DORA) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 25.0S 62.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0S 62.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 25.4S 61.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 25.9S 60.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 25.1S 62.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 455 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED AT A LESS
THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS. RECENT
MICROWAVE-DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCTS INDICATE DRIER AIR
IS WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN QUADRANTS INTO THE TC, PRODUCING
AN ASYMMETRIC APPEARANCE. TC 10S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE TC. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. TC 10S WILL
WEAKEN AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE DUE TO COMPETING
INFLUENCES OF STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 10S WILL DISSIPATE
AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070209 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/090752ZFEB2006//
AMPN/ REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DORA) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 26.0S 62.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 26.0S 62.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 27.0S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 26.3S 62.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM
SOUTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A
090337Z SSMIS PASS INDICATE 10S STILL HAS A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), BUT HAS LOST ALL DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. SOME WEAK CONVECTION PERSISTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LLCC,
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BAND. THE TC 10S WILL
CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN, AND WILL HAVE COMPLETELY DISSIPATED AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM
BY
TAU 12. BEYOND TAU 12, THE WEAK LOW LEVEL WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
SOUTHWEST-
WARD, ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED NEAR 38S.
MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO
INHIBIT ANY REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. THIS IS THE FINAL WARN-
ING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 12 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELEVE
HOURLY UPDATES.////
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_dora_jtwc_advisories.htm
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