Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone JACOB : JTWC Advisories |
Season 2006-2007 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
---> Tropical Cyclone JACOB Track Map and Data |
WTXS32 PGTW 20070307 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/070151MAR2007// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (JACOB) WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 070000Z --- NEAR 12.4S 107.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S 107.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 11.9S 106.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 11.6S 106.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 11.3S 105.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 10.9S 105.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 070300Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 107.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (JACOB), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM SOUTH OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT DVORAK SATELLITE INTEN- SITY ESTIMATES AND A 062316Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH. TC 18S IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTWARD EXTENSION OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA. THIS RIDGE EXTENSION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY OBSERVED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE STEERING RIDGE WEAKENS, STRONG LOW TO MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM WILL EXERT A COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCE, AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW IN THIS COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE. HOWEVER, A REORIENTATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND THE APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL ALLOW POLEWARD OUTFLOW TO IMPROVE. THEREFORE, THE FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z AND 080300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (GEORGE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20070307 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/070152MAR2007// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (JACOB) WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 070600Z --- NEAR 12.5S 107.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 107.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 12.2S 106.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 11.9S 106.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 11.5S 105.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 11.1S 106.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 070900Z POSITION NEAR 12.4S 107.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (JACOB), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM SOUTH OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 18S IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTWARD EXTENSION OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH- WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THIS RIDGE EXTENSION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH- WEST OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE STEERING RIDGE WEAKENS, STRONG LOW TO MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM WILL EXERT A COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCE. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW AND BEGIN TO TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW EXERTS MORE OF A STEERING INFLUENCE AND AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WEAKLY WITH TC 17S. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THIS IS EXPECTED DECREASE ONLY SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL INCREASE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND ALLOW TC 18S TO INTEN- SIFY AT NEARLY A CLIMATALOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 36. AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY BETWEEN TAUS 36 AND 48, UPWELLING WILL CAUSE A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. THE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT AND THE MODEL FIELDS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR THIS SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z AND 080900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (GEORGE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20070307 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/071351MAR2007// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (JACOB) WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 071800Z --- NEAR 13.0S 106.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S 106.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 13.1S 105.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 13.1S 104.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 13.1S 104.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 13.3S 103.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 072100Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 106.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (JACOB), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM SOUTH OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 18S CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A GRADUAL SLOWING OF FORWARD TRACK SPEED IN RESPONSE TO COMPETING WESTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGING. THE TRACK FORECAST RE- PRESENTS A DEPARTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR A STRONGER SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THE SEPARATION BETWEEN TC 17S AND TC 18S TO THE SOUTH- EAST IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE, SO DIRECT INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONES IS NOT ANTICIPATED. TC 17S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH MIDLATITUDE TROUGHING TO THE SOUTH AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z AND 082100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (GEORGE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20070308 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/080751MAR2007// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (JACOB) WARNING NR 004 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 080600Z --- NEAR 12.8S 105.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S 105.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 12.9S 105.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 13.0S 106.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 13.3S 106.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 13.8S 107.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 080900Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 105.8E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 20 FEET. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (JACOB), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405 NM SOUTH OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA, HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO ITS NORTH ANCHORED OVER THE JAVA SEA, AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO ITS SOUTH ANCHORED OVER SOUTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA. THIS STEERING PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AS THE NER STRENGTHENS AND THE STR IS RE- INFORCED FROM THE WEST AFTER A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH EXITS THE AREA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED, DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OVER THE SYSTEM. TC 18S WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS VWS IS REDUCED BY A BUILDING 200 MB ANTICYCLONE ALOFT. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z AND 090900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (GEORGE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20070308 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/081951MAR2007// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (JACOB) WARNING NR 005 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 081800Z --- NEAR 13.4S 106.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S 106.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 14.1S 107.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 14.8S 108.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 15.7S 110.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 16.9S 111.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 082100Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 106.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (JACOB), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 690 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY INTENSIFIED AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS. TC 18S IS DEPARTING A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND BEGINNING TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TC. TC 18S WILL INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE UNDER COMPETING INFLUENCES OF FAVORABLE POLE- WARD OUTFLOW AND WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, WHICH ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z AND 092100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (GEORGE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20070309 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/090151MAR2007// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (JACOB) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 090000Z --- NEAR 13.9S 107.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S 107.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 14.8S 109.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 16.0S 111.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 17.3S 112.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 18.7S 114.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 090300Z POSITION NEAR 14.1S 108.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (JACOB), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 615 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 090034Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW THE SYSTEM HAS ACCELERATED SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTENSIFIED AT A LESS THAN CLIMATO- LOGICAL RATE OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS. TC 18S WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE TC. TC 18S WILL INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATO- LOGICAL RATE UNDER COMPETING INFLUENCES OF FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, WHICH ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z AND 100300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (GEORGE) WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW 090300) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM. ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20070309 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/080751MAR2007// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (JACOB) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 090600Z --- NEAR 14.7S 108.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 108.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 15.7S 109.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 17.0S 111.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 18.5S 113.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 20.4S 115.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 23.3S 117.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 090900Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 108.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (JACOB), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) AN- CHORED OVER INDONESIA CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE ON TC 18S. AFTER TAU 24, THE NER WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER THE TIMOR SEA, CAUSING AN INCREASE IN TRACK SPEED PRIOR TO LANDFALL, WHICH WILL OCCUR AFTER TAU 48. THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS, AND WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS AN IMPROVING POLWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HELPS THE SYSTEM OVERCOME THE EFFECTS OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (GEORGE) FINAL WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW)// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20070309 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/080751MAR2007// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (JACOB) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 091200Z --- NEAR 15.3S 109.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 109.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 16.5S 111.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 17.9S 112.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 19.6S 114.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 21.4S 116.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 24.6S 119.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 091500Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 109.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (JACOB), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS, AS A 090847Z TRMM PASS INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) ANCHORED OVER INDONESIA CON- TINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE ON TC 18S. AFTER TAU 24, THE NER WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER THE TIMOR SEA, CAUSING AN INCREASE IN TRACK SPEED PRIOR TO LANDFALL, WHICH WILL OCCUR JUST BEFORE TAU 48. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS AN IMPROVING POLE- WARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HELPS THE SYSTEM OVERCOME THE EFFECTS OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (GEORGE) FINAL WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW).// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20070309 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (JACOB) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 091800Z --- NEAR 15.7S 109.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 109.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 16.8S 111.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 18.0S 113.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 19.4S 114.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 20.9S 116.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 23.2S 119.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 092100Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 110.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (JACOB), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 18S CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH- EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL (NER) RIDGE ANCHORED OVER INDONESIA. THE NER IS FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER THE TIMOR SEA TO THE EAST OF TC 18S, ALLOWING THE STORM TO CONTINUE ALONG A GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO INTENSIFY MORE RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 12 DUE TO INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE, INCREASING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO THE WEST OF THE STORM, AND DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20070310 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (JACOB) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 100000Z --- NEAR 16.2S 110.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 110.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 17.5S 111.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 18.8S 113.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 20.1S 115.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 21.5S 116.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 24.1S 118.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 100300Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 110.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (JACOB), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEAST- WARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 18S IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) ANCHORED NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EX- TEND SOUTHWARD OVER THE TIMOR SEA TO THE EAST OF TC 18S, ALLOWING THE STORM TO CONTINUE PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD. TC 18S IS FORE- CAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL AFTER TAU 36. HOWEVER, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT INTENSIFICATION TO A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE, PARTICULARLY EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20070310 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (JACOB) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 100600Z --- NEAR 16.9S 111.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 111.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 18.3S 113.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 19.6S 114.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 20.7S 116.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 22.1S 118.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 24.6S 120.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 100900Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 111.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (JACOB), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 18S IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) ANCHORED NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NER UNTIL LANDFALL, WHICH WILL OCCUR JUST AFTER TAU 36. THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS DUE TO A DECREASE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 12 AND THEN INTENSIFY SLOWLY UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL, DUE TO INCREASED SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE AUSTRALIAN COASTLINE. THE DYNAMIC AIDS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z AND 110900Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20070310 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (JACOB) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101200Z --- NEAR 18.1S 112.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 112.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 19.5S 114.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 20.7S 116.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 21.8S 117.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 23.3S 119.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 101500Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 112.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (JACOB), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEAST- WARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 18S CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) ANCHORED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL AFTER TAU 24. THE STORM HAS ACCELERATED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, BUT IS FORECAST TO SLOW THROUGH TAU 24 AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM EXERTS A SLIGHT COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCE. TC 18S HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO THE CONTINUED SUPPRESSION OF POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH TAU 12 AND THEN INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT TRAVERSES INCREASED SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHORTLY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. THE DYNAMIC AIDS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z AND 110300Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20070310 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (JACOB) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101800Z --- NEAR 19.8S 113.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 18 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S 113.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 21.9S 114.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 23.3S 116.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 24.4S 118.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 102100Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 113.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (JACOB), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTH- EASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 18S CONTINUES TO TRACK RAPIDLY TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER INDONESIA. THIS GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH SOME SLOWING IN FORWARD TRACK SPEED AFTER LANDFALL AROUND TAU 12. THE SYSTEM HAS REORGANIZED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, EXHIBITING A MORE SYMMETRICAL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE INDICATIVE OF SOME INTENSIFICATION, RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE STORM HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. HOWEVER, SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TAU 12 AS THE SYSTEM PASSES OVER VERY WARM WATER OFFSHORE. THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY WEAKEN AFTER MAKING LANDFALL AND IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE A SLOWER FORWARD TRACK SPEED AND A LARGER EASTWARD COMPONENT TO STORM TRACK THROUGH TAU 12. THIS FORECAST IS WEIGHTED TOWARD PERSISTENCE IN THE TAU 00 TO TAU 12 PERIOD, DEPICTING A FASTER FORWARD TRACK SPEED AND A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK THAN THE NUMERICAL MODELS SUGGEST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z, AND 112100Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20070311 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (JACOB) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 110000Z --- NEAR 19.3S 114.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S 114.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 20.5S 115.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 21.4S 117.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 22.2S 118.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 110300Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 114.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (JACOB), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 18S CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH- EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER INDONESIA. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONT- INUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY, INCLUDING A 11/0035Z SSMIS PASS, REVEALS THAT THE SYS- TEM IS BEGINNING TO ENTRAIN DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ADDITIONALLY, MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STORM. HOWEVER, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLY WARM AND THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY IN THIS ENVIRONMENT OF COMPETING INFLUENCES. TC 18S WILL DISSIPATE STEADILY AFTER LANDFALL BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z AND 120300Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20070311 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (JACOB) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 110600Z --- NEAR 19.4S 114.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S 114.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 20.1S 116.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 21.0S 117.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 22.5S 118.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 110900Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 114.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (JACOB), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 18S HAS BEEN TRACKING EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A 500 MB NEAR- EQUATORIAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER INDONESIA. TC 18S HAS SLOWED AS IT IS BEGINNING TO BE STEERED AT THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS SLOWER FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LANDFALL WHICH WILL SHORTLY AFTER TAU 12. TC 18S WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE 700 MB ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. AN 11/0235Z AMSU-B IMAGE REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS CONTINUING TO ENTRAIN DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THAT MUCH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS THAT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED. THESE NEGATIVE FACTORS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z AND 120900Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20070311 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (JACOB) WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111200Z --- NEAR 19.6S 115.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S 115.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 20.3S 117.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 21.3S 119.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 22.8S 120.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 111500Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 115.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (JACOB), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 18S IS TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 700 MB ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS TRACK AND FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL NEAR TAU 12. THE STORM CONTINUES TO DISPLAY FLARING CONVECTION AND A LACK OF SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AS OUTFLOW REMAINS WEAK AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS LIGHT TO MODERATE. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND DISSIPATE OVER LAND PRIOR TO TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z AND 121500Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20070311 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (JACOB) WARNING NR 017 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111800Z --- NEAR 19.8S 116.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S 116.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 20.6S 118.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 21.4S 119.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 112100Z POSITION NEAR 20.0S 117.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (JACOB), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 18S CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARD THE NORTH- WEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR- EQUATORIAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER INDONESIA. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THIS RIDGE, MAKING LANDFALL JUST PRIOR TO TAU 12. RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A WEAKENING AND BROADENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING SLOWLY UNTIL LANDFALL. THEREAFTER, TC 18S WILL STEADILY DISSIPATE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20070312 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (JACOB) WARNING NR 018 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 120600Z --- NEAR 20.8S 119.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND REPEAT POSIT: 20.8S 119.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 22.2S 121.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 120900Z POSITION NEAR 21.2S 120.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (JACOB), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 18S IS OVER LAND AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK RAPIDLY TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS FURTHER INLAND. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (INDLADA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
Document: tropical_cyclone_jacob_jtwc_advisories.htm
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