Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone KARA : JTWC Advisories |
Season 2006-2007 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
---> Tropical Cyclone KARA Track Map and Data |
WTXS31 PGTW 20070325 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/250221Z MAR 07// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (KARA) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 250600Z --- NEAR 16.6S 116.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 116.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 16.8S 115.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 17.1S 115.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 17.7S 115.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 18.6S 116.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 250900Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 116.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (KARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT TC 20S HAS FORMED IN THE INDIAN OCEAN NORTHWEST OF THE WESTERN AUSTRALIAN COAST. THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM IS WEAKENING THE STEERING RIDGE. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND TURN POLEWARD IN RESPONSE TO THIS DEVELOPING WEAKNESS AND ACCELERATE AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A REORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 20S WILL INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE TROUGH TAU 24 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUT- FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. AFTER TAU 24, THE STORM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 250221Z MAR 07 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20070325 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (KARA) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 251800Z --- NEAR 17.0S 115.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 115.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 17.4S 115.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 17.8S 115.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 18.2S 115.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 18.7S 116.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 252100Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 115.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (KARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 20S CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND ITS FORWARD MOTION IS BEGINNING TO DECREASE. THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED MOSTLY WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, BUT HAS STARTED TO TRACK MORE SOUTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING AND DEEPENING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO CREATE A WEAK- NESS IN THE STEERING RIDGE. THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW AND TURN POLEWARD TOWARD THIS WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER ROUNDING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE REORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST BY TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 20S WILL INTENSIFY AT NEARLY A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 24 DUE TO LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH. AFTER TAU 24, TC 20S WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z AND 262100Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20070326 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (KARA) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 260600Z --- NEAR 18.0S 115.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 115.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 18.7S 115.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 19.5S 115.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 20.1S 116.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 20.9S 116.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT --- REMARKS: 260900Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 115.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (KARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM NORTH- WEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 20S HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH A VISIBLE EYE FEATURE DEVELOPING. THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO MAKE A POLEWARD TURN TO THE SOUTH DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SOUTHWEST BREAKING DOWN THE SUB- TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) STEERING TC 20S. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED A RECURVATURE SCENARIO FOR TC 20S, BUT SHOW A MUCH SHARPER RECURVATURE TO THE EAST THAN CURRENT SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE. THE SYSTEM SPEED HAS REMAINED FAIRLY CONSTANT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND HAS NOT SLOWED AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS FORECAST BRINGS THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE PRE- VIOUS FORECAST. THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE STR, EVENTUALLY CAUSING A MORE EASTWARD COMPONENT TO THE TRACK. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 20S WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERT- ICAL WIND SHEAR. IN ADDITION THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK OVER FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES UNTIL LANDFALL. AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MAKE LANDFALL, TC 20S WILL BEGIN TO SEE INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COASTAL EFFECTS THAT WEAKEN IT BEYOND TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z AND 270900Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20070326 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (KARA) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 261800Z --- NEAR 18.4S 115.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 115.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 18.7S 116.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 18.9S 116.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 19.1S 117.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 19.4S 117.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 262100Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 116.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (KARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM NORTH- WEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. CURRENT POSITIONING AND STORM MOTION ARE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE DAMPIER RADAR. TC 20S HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS OCCURRED NEAR 26/06Z WHEN SYSTEM HAD A PINPOINT EYE AND HAS DECREASED SINCE THAT TIME. TC 20S IS LOCATED WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH RIDGING EAST AND WEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE RECENT 500MB ANALYSIS INDICATED A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH POSITIONED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS ENHANCING THE WEAKNESS AND DRIVING A SLIGHTLY FASTER EASTWARD TRACK AS WELL AS CREATING A HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT JUST SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 20S IS FORECAST TO DECREASE ITS SPEED OF MOTION AS THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT FURTHER WEAKENS DUE TO THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH SHIFTING EAST AFTER TAU 12. THE CURRENT DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT AND INDICATES A SLOW, NEAR-QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT AFTER TAU 12. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND THE WEAK EASTWARD TO SOUTHWARD LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS INTO AN UNFAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z AND 272100Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20070327 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (KARA) WARNING NR 005 RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (KARA) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 270600Z --- NEAR 18.8S 117.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S 117.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 19.2S 119.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 19.7S 120.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 20.3S 120.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 20.7S 120.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 270900Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 118.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (KARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 20S IS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS A STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) GRAD- IENT ENHANCED BY A DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYS- TEM. TC 20S IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY MID LEVEL RIDGING EXTEND- ING FROM NORTHERN AUSTRALIA INTO INDONESIA. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SLOW DUE TO HIGH VWS PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL JUST AFTER TAU 24, WITH A DECOUPLING OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BEING A LIKELY SCENARIO. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN POOR AGREE- MENT AFTER TAU 12, SO THE FORECAST IS BASED PRIMARLY ON PERSISTENCE AND ANALYSIS OF THE SYNOPTIC STEERING FLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z AND 280900Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20070327 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (KARA) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 271800Z --- NEAR 19.8S 120.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S 120.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 20.4S 121.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 272100Z POSITION NEAR 20.0S 120.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (KARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND, BASED ON RECENT RADAR IMAGERY, HAS MOVED OVER LAND NEAR WALLAL DOWNS. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 AND RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS VERY WEAK BANDING AND A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CENTER. TC 20S IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND TO REMAIN OVER LAND WITHIN A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS THROUGH TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
Document: tropical_cyclone_kara_jtwc_advisories.htm
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