Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone NELSON : JTWC Advisories |
Season 2006-2007 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
---> Tropical Cyclone NELSON Track Map and Data |
WTPS31 PGTW 20070206 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051952ZFEB2007// AMPN/REF A,TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (NELSON) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 060000Z --- NEAR 16.0S 139.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 139.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 16.1S 140.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 16.3S 141.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 16.5S 142.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 16.6S 143.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 060300Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 139.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (NELSON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM WEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS. TC 11P IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF THE TC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A DEEPENING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED UPSTREAM, WHICH WILL FURTHER ACT TO STEER THE TC SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 48. TC 11P WILL INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 48 DUE TO COMPETING INFLUENCES OF FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 051952Z FEB 07 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 052000 ) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z AND 070300Z.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20070206 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING RMKS// 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (NELSON) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 061200Z --- NEAR 16.6S 140.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 140.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 16.7S 141.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 16.7S 142.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 16.8S 143.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 17.1S 144.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 061500Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 140.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (NELSON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM WEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS THE OVERALL STRUC- TURE OF THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 12P IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 12P HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMA- TOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND IS FORECAST TO REACH MAX- IMUM INTENSITY BY TAU 12, JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. BEYOND TAU 12 THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DECREASING INTENSITY DUE TO LAND INTER- ACTION. TC 12P REMAINS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A NEAR- EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE TC. WEAKENING OF THE NEAR- EQUATORIAL RIDGE FROM A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENING UPSTREAM OF THE TC WILL CAUSE A MORE EASTWARD TRACK BEYOND TAU 12. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z AND 071500Z.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20070207 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (NELSON) WARNING NR 003 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (NELSON) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 070000Z --- NEAR 16.9S 142.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 142.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 17.6S 144.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 070300Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 142.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (NELSON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM WEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND MICROWAVE SAT- ELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS DISSIPATED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS ASHORE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DISSIPATING OVER LAND TO BELOW TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, STRONG SURFACE TROUGHING, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ARE EVIDENT AHEAD OF THE STORM CENTER TRACK OVER THE CORAL SEA, AND SOME REGENER- ATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AFTER THE CIRCULATION CENTER CROSSES THE QUEENSLAND COAST AND REEMERGES OVER WATER. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN).THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
Document: tropical_cyclone_nelson_jtwc_advisories.htm
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