WTPS22 PGTW 20070122 17:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/221651ZJAN2007//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.5S 159.2W TO 21.7S 152.3W
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 221500Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.5S 159.1W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.1S
161.9W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5S 159.1W, APPROXIMATELY 605 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PAPEETE, TAHITI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 06 TO 12 HOURS
WITH DEVELOPING BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 221204Z
AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANAL-
YSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ENHANCED BY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO IMPROVED ORGAN-
IZATION AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFCANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 231700Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20070122 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221651ZJAN2007//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   221800Z --- NEAR 14.0S 157.1W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 157.1W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 15.5S 155.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 18.2S 153.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 22 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 22.3S 151.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 29 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 27.7S 149.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 14.4S 156.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 505 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF TAHITI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 17 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 08P HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS AT A GREATER-THAN-CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 221828Z
SSMI IMAGE REVEALS A DEVELOPING EYE IN THE 85 GHZ CHANNEL WITH A
BANDING FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH WHICH IS POSITIONED SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS SIGNIFI-
CANTLY ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE PAST 06 TO 12 HOURS.
TC 08P WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 08P IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE
AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 48. THE LIMITED
DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 221651Z
JAN 2007 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS22 PGTW 221700)
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 230900Z AND 232100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20070123 09:00z 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (ZITA) WARNING NR 002    
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (ZITA) WARNING NR 002    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   230600Z --- NEAR 16.0S 154.5W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 154.5W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 19.3S 151.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 26 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 24.3S 150.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 153.8W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (ZITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF TAHITI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THE SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF LOW TO MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. GOOD POLEWARD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAVE ALLOWED
THE SYSTEM TO FURTHER INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. HOWEVER,
THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY DURING THE UPCOMING 12
HOURS AS INCREASED NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ENTRAIN-
MENT OF DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH BEGIN TO
HAVE AN EFFECT. THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THIS
TROUGH DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, BECOMING FULLY EXTRATROPICAL
BY TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNING AT 232100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20070123 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (ZITA) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   231800Z --- NEAR 19.8S 152.0W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S 152.0W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 24.2S 150.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 26 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 29.4S 150.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 20.9S 151.7W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (ZITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
SOUTHWEST OF TAHITI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 231635Z TRMM IMAGE DEPICT A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED APPROXIMATELY
20 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THAT
THE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY UNDER MODERATE TO HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 08P WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE, TRACK
RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD AND UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL BY TAU 24. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20070124 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (ZITA) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   240600Z --- NEAR 23.4S 151.3W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.4S 151.3W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 27.9S 150.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 24.5S 151.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (ZITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TAHITI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE STORM IS COMPLETING THE
FINAL STAGES OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL
BY TAU 12. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOW THAT ALL DEEP CONVECTION HAS SHEARED TO THE SOUTH-
EAST OF AN ELONGATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 240559Z
SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS DRY AIR TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE STORM WRAPPING
AROUND THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
THEREFORE, THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 12 FEET.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

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