Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone 200824 : JTWC Advisories |
Season 2007-2008 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
---> Tropical Cyclone 200824 Track Map and Data |
WTPS21 PGTW 20080320 12:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.6S 163.4E TO 21.0S 164.9E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM- AGERY AT 201100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.0S 163.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.9S 164.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.0S 163.4E, APPROXIMATELY 305 NM NORTH- WEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED, CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 200935Z SSMIS IMAGE INDICATED A CONVECTIVE BAND NORTH WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTH- EAST QUADRANT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD POLE- WARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH SOUTHEAST OF NEW CALEDONIA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 211200Z.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20080320 21:00z COR MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR/201151ZMAR2008// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P WARNING NR 001A CORRECTED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 201800Z --- NEAR 18.9S 163.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 163.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 19.8S 164.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 20.5S 164.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 20.8S 164.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 20.8S 164.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 202100Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 163.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND CONSOLIDATION OF DEEP CONVECTION. A 201429Z AQUA MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS TIGHT CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE BULK OF DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS. INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON DVORAK ANALYSIS FROM PGTW AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM NEW CALEDONIA. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ENHANCED EASTWARD OUTFLOW ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE STORM IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE IS PROVIDING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AS WELL. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG A NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INTERACT WITH NEW CALEDONIA BETWEEN TAU 12 AND 24. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL WANE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A RESULT OF MIDLATITUDE AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL DECREASE DRAMATICALLY IN THE LATER FORECAST TAUS AND WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE MODEL AIDS, WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO INTENSITY AND TRACK. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 201151Z MAR 08 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 201200) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z AND 212100Z. JUSTIF- ICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED SPELLING IN REMARKS SECTION.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20080321 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 210600Z --- NEAR 21.0S 164.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S 164.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 21.9S 164.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 22.5S 165.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 210900Z POSITION NEAR 21.2S 164.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24P LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLIGHTLY WEAKENED SYSTEM TRACKING OVER NORTHWESTERN NEW CALEDONIA. BASED ON A 210450Z TRMM 37GHZ IMAGE AND SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS, THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE ISLAND AND REMAINS WELL-DEFINED DESPITE THE WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, AND SLP VALUES NEAR 1000MB. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING INCREAS- INGLY UNFAVORABLE WITH THE SYSTEM TRACKING UNDER MODERATE TO HIGH NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 24P IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER MARGINAL SST AND DECREASING, UNFAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DUE PRIMARILY TO THE VWS, LAND INTER- ACTION AND COOLER SST. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 24P IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20080321 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 211800Z --- NEAR 21.6S 163.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 21.6S 163.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 22.1S 163.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 22.6S 162.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 212100Z POSITION NEAR 21.7S 163.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24P LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED METSAT IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKENED SYSTEM WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DISPLACED TO THE NORTH- WEST OF THE CONVECTION. THE DISPLACEMENT IS DUE TO MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ACTING ON THE SYSTEM. THE WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER AND WILL LEAD TO FULL DISSIPATION OVER WATER PRIOR TO TAU 24. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 8 FEET.
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
Document: tropical_cyclone_200824_jtwc_advisories.htm
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