Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone BONGWE : JTWC Advisories |
Season 2007-2008 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
---> Tropical Cyclone BONGWE Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20071117 22:30z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A 160 NM RADIUS OF 6.3S 75.6E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY- CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 172130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 6.3S 75.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.0S 75.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.3S 75.6E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A LARGE, SYMMETRIC AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE EASTERN QUADRANT. A 171703Z TRMM IMAGE INDICATES STRENGTHENING CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LLCC. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM DIEGO GARCIA INDICATE SLP NEAR 1007MB WITH 2MB 24-HOUR PRESSURE FALLS. THE 171324Z QUIKSCAT SHOWS CROSS- EQUATORIAL INFLOW AND ENHANCED WESTERLIES CONVERGING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND STRONG SOUTHEASTERLIES CONVERGING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE DISTURBANCE WITH GOOD OUTFLOW AND UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LLCC AND CONVECTIVE BANDING, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 182230Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20071118 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/172221Z NOV 07// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 180600Z --- NEAR 7.9S 76.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 7.9S 76.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 8.6S 77.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 9.1S 77.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 9.7S 77.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 10.3S 77.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 180900Z POSITION NEAR 8.1S 76.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM KNES AND PGTW AND A 180600Z CIRA MULTIPLATFORM SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE INDI- CATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH TC 04S HAVE REACHED 35 KNOTS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 180530Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. TC 04S IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A SLIGHT TURN TO THE WEST BEGINNING AROUND TAU 36 AS THE STORM ENCOUNTERS THE COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCE OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH. THE AVAIL- ABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS STRONG INTERACTION BETWEEN TC 04S AND TC 03S TO THE SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THAT THE CURRENT SEPARA- TION DISTANCE BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONES IS ABOUT 700 NM AND EXPECTED TO DECREASE, BINARY INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, TC 04S IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE STRONGER SYSTEM OVER TIME AND THE EFFECT OF A WEAKER TC 03S ON THE TRACK OF TC 04S THEREFORE APPEARS TO BE OVER-EMPHASIZED IN THE CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS. NOGAPS DEPICTS A CLEAR SEPARATION BETWEEN THE TWO CIRCULATIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND ALSO DEPICTS TC 04S AS THE DOMINANT CIRCULATION. THEREFORE, THE CURRENT FORE- CAST IS CLOSE TO THE NOGAPS SOLUTION. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 172221Z NOV 07 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 172230). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z AND 190900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (LEE-ARIEL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20071118 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/172221Z NOV 07// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 181800Z --- NEAR 8.8S 76.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 8.8S 76.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 9.3S 76.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 9.9S 76.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 10.8S 76.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 11.7S 75.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 182100Z POSITION NEAR 8.9S 76.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH A DEVLOPING CDO AND GOOD CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. AN 181645Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN QUADRANT OF THE STORM AND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CDO FEATURE. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND THE SOUTHWARD MOTION. TC 04S IS STILL TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR TAU 48 TC 04S IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STORM ENCOUNTERS THE COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCE OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A SOUTHWARD TRACK BUT INDICATES A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS FROM EAST-SOUTHEAST (NOGAPS) TO WEST-SOUTHWEST (EGRR). THE FORECAST IS POSITIONED WEST OF THE CONSENSUS BASED ON NOGAPS POOR HANDLING OF TC 03S AND EXCESSIVE INTERACTION WHICH IS PRODUCING AN ERRONEOUS EAST-SOUTHEAST TRACK. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS A SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK SUPPORTED BY THE MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMIC MODELS. TC 04S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT 10-15 KNOTS PER DAY BUT SEVERAL MODELS INDICATE A FASTER DEVELOPMENT RATE. IN PARTICULAR STIPS AND GFDN INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM MAY INTENSIFY AT A 20-25 KNOT PER DAY RATE. THE FORECAST INTENSIFICATION RATE IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE CONSENSUS AT TAU 36 AND 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z AND 192100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (LEE-ARIEL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING INFORMATION.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20071119 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BONGWE) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 190600Z --- NEAR 9.8S 76.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 9.8S 76.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 10.7S 76.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 11.3S 76.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 11.9S 75.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 12.6S 75.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 190900Z POSITION NEAR 10.0S 76.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTEN- SITY ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES AND FMEE AND A 190600Z CIRA MULTIPLATFORM SATELLITE WIND ESTIMATE SHOWING MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 56 KNOTS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, AS EVIDENT IN A 190514Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE. TC 04S CONTINUES TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. A SUBTROPI- CAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO EXERT AND INCREASING INFLU- ENCE ON STORM MOTION, INCREASING THE WESTWARD COMPONENT OF STORM MOTION THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER, THE RIDGE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REORIENT SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE IN THE MID-LATITUDE PATTERN TO THE SOUTH. THEREFORE, THE STORM IS FORECAST TO TURN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS THE CENTER MOVES UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND EXPERIENCES FAVORABLE MULTI-DIRECTIONAL OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SUFFICIENT OCEAN HEAT CONTENT OVER THE CENTRAL SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER SUPPORT THIS INTENSIFICATION TREND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z AND 200900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (LEE-ARIEL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20071119 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BONGWE) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191800Z --- NEAR 10.6S 76.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.6S 76.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 11.4S 76.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 12.1S 74.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 12.6S 73.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 13.3S 73.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 192100Z POSITION NEAR 10.8S 76.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BONGWE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES AND FMEE. DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS OF THE WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), AS EVIDENT IN A 191514Z SSMI MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE. TC 04S CONTINUES TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A PROGRESSIVELY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 36. AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR TAU 48, ALLOWING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK IN RESPONSE. INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z AND 202100Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20071120 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BONGWE) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200600Z --- NEAR 11.8S 75.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S 75.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 12.4S 74.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 12.9S 72.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 13.4S 71.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 13.6S 70.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 200900Z POSITION NEAR 11.9S 74.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BONGWE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE STEERING INFLUENCE FOR THE SYSTEM HAS TRANSITIONED FROM THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NORTHEAST) TO THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS SUCH, TC 04S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. DESPITE VERY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, A TONGUE OF DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR (CIMSS TPW) IS APPROACHING THE CENTER OF TC 04C, AND CONVECTION HAS WANED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THEREFORE, A MORE CONSERVATIVE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION IS PROJECTED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z AND 210900Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20071120 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BONGWE) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 201800Z --- NEAR 12.5S 73.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 73.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 13.2S 71.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 13.6S 69.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 14.0S 68.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 14.1S 67.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 202100Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 72.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BONGWE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE FOR TC 04S IS THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED SOUTH OF THE STORM. TC 04S WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE STR THROUGH TAU 48. TC 04S WILL INTENSIFY SLOWLY DUE TO COMPETING INFLUENCES OF GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND ENTRAINMENT OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR. THIS FORECAST IS SUPPORTED BY THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE, WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREE- MENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z AND 212100Z. ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20071121 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BONGWE) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 210600Z --- NEAR 12.7S 71.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S 71.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 13.2S 70.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 13.4S 68.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 13.6S 67.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 13.6S 66.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 210900Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 71.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BONGWE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE REMAINS IN A REGION OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW AND OVER HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, A TONGUE OF DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR (NOTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCTS) REMAINS WRAPPED AROUND THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION IS LACKING NEAR THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, AND SATELLITE-DERIVED INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO FALL. GIVEN THE INFLUENCE OF THE DRIER AIR AND LIMITED CONVECTION, ONLY SLIGHT INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS ARE EXPECTED, AS TC 04S SHOULD REMAIN A 40- TO 50-KNOT SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z AND 220900Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20071121 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BONGWE) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 211800Z --- NEAR 13.6S 70.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 70.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 14.2S 69.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 14.4S 67.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 14.5S 66.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 14.5S 65.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 212100Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 70.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BONGWE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING SOUTH WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 211722Z METOP IMAGE SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED LLCC AND A TIGHT CLUSTER OF SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES. THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY BUT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF SOME DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR (NOTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCTS) WRAPPED AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM BUT NOT YET ENTRAINED. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS. TC 04S IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A 45-50 KNOT SYSTEM THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z AND 222100Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20071122 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BONGWE) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220600Z --- NEAR 14.0S 70.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 70.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 14.1S 69.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 14.2S 68.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 14.3S 67.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 14.3S 66.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 220900Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 69.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BONGWE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CURRENT STORM POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES AND FMEE. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS BASED ON DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 3.0/3.0 FROM PGTW, 4.0/4.0 FROM KNES, AND 4.0/4.0 FROM FMEE AND A 220600Z CIRA MULTIPLATFORM SATELLITE WIND ESTIMATE. TC 04S HAS ENTERED A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTHWEST. TRACK SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLOW AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR MOVES EASTWARD AND PREVENTS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FROM BUILDING TO THE SOUTH OF THE STORM AND EXERTING A DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE UNTIL AFTER TAU 24. POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL IMPROVE AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING LOW, BUT LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR CURRENTLY OBSERVED NEAR THE SYSTEM IN RECENT TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSES ARE FORECAST TO BALANCE THE FAVORABLE EFFECTS OF ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROCHING LOW. THEREFORE, INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z AND 230900Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20071122 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BONGWE) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 221800Z --- NEAR 13.9S 69.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S 69.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 14.1S 68.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 14.2S 67.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 14.3S 66.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 14.4S 64.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 222100Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 69.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BONGWE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 925 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED PRIMARILY ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 221541Z TRMM IMAGE SHOWING A PARTIALLY- EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED SOUTHEAST. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS FROM KNES AND PGTW. TC 04S REMAINS IN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTHWEST. TRACK SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLOW AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR MOVES EASTWARD AND PREVENTS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FROM BUILDING TO THE SOUTH OF THE STORM AND EXERTING A DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE UNTIL AFTER TAU 24. POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL IMPROVE AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING LOW, BUT LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR CURRENTLY OBSERVED NEAR THE SYSTEM IN RECENT TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSES ARE FORECAST TO BALANCE THE FAVORABLE EFFECTS OF ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROCHING LOW. THEREFORE, INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z AND 232100Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20071123 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BONGWE) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230600Z --- NEAR 13.8S 68.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S 68.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 13.6S 67.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 13.7S 66.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 14.0S 65.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 14.5S 63.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 230900Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 68.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BONGWE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 880 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CURRENT STORM POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND FMEE AND A 230327Z SSMIS PASS. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 2.0/3.5 FROM PGTW AND 2.5/3.0 FROM FMEE AND A 230600Z CIRA MULTIPLATFORM SATELLITE WIND ESTIMATE. THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO ACCELERATE WEST- WARD UNDER THE STRENGTHENING STEERING INFLUENCE OF LOW TO MID- LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH. GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE STEERING RIDGE INFLUENCE PERSISTS. HOWEVER, STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM, WHICH HAVE SHEARED THE DEEPEST CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, ARE EX- PECTED TO CONTINUE IMPACTING THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 48. THERE- FORE, THE FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM WITH EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OCCURRING AROUND OR JUST AFTER TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z AND 240900Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20071123 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BONGWE) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z --- NEAR 12.9S 67.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S 67.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 12.8S 66.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 13.0S 65.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 232100Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 67.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BONGWE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 04S HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, LOSING MOST CONVECTION AS SEEN IN RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 231754Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED AND IS EVIDENT IN THE AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE DISCUSSED ABOVE. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 17 FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
Document: tropical_cyclone_bongwe_jtwc_advisories.htm
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