Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone CELINA : JTWC Advisories |
Season 2007-2008 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
---> Tropical Cyclone CELINA Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20071212 22:30z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.2S 70.6E TO 14.8S 67.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM- AGERY AT 121800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.6S 70.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 69.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.6S 70.1E, APPROXIMATELY 405 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH A 121714Z AMSUB MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE BANDING CONSOLIDATING AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCU- LATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM PROVIDING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY IN A REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUST- AINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO THE PERSISTENT CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC, AND THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 132230Z. ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20071213 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/122221Z DEC 07// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130600Z --- NEAR 14.7S 68.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 68.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 14.9S 68.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 15.0S 67.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 15.0S 67.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 15.1S 66.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 130900Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 68.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 490 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 06S HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS, REACHING AN INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES, 30 KNOTS FROM FMEE AND A 130107Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE SHOWING 40 KNOT WINDS AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW TO MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGING TO THE NORTH. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL AIDS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A WESTWARD TRACK, HOWEVER, THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE WBAR SOLUTION. THIS WARNING SUPER- SEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 122221ZDEC2007 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 122230). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z AND 140900Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20071213 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S WARNING NR 002 RELOCATED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 131200Z --- NEAR 14.2S 69.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 69.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 14.6S 68.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 14.9S 68.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 15.1S 67.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 15.3S 66.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 131500Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 69.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THIS FORECAST REPRESENTS A RELOCATION OF THE SYSTEM FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. THE SYSTEM HAS UNDERGONE CONSOLIDATION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS WARNING LOCATION. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD SLOWLY UNDER COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES OF NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE CONSOLIDATING AND SLOWLY INTENSIFYING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z AND 141500Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20071214 03:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 140000Z --- NEAR 13.6S 69.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 69.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 13.7S 69.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 13.8S 68.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 14.0S 68.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 14.4S 67.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 140300Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 69.3E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z AND 150300Z. ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20071214 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 141200Z --- NEAR 14.2S 69.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 69.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 14.7S 68.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 15.3S 67.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 15.9S 65.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 16.4S 64.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 141500Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 69.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 06S HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNDER THE COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES OF NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGING AND A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUB- TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LEAVE THIS RELATIVELY WEAK ENVIRONMENT NEAR TAU 12 AND TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD. TC 06S WILL UNDERGO SLOW INTENSIFICATION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND EXPERIENCES IMPROVED OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SIG- NIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z AND 151500Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20071215 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 150000Z --- NEAR 14.9S 68.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 68.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 15.6S 68.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 16.3S 66.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 17.1S 65.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 17.9S 63.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 150300Z POSITION NEAR 15.1S 68.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 850 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE STORM HAS BEGUN TO MOVE OUT OF A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS ON THE PERIPHERY OF A SYNOPTIC-SCALE ANTICYCLONE ALOFT CONTINUE TO HAMPER DEVELOPMENT, SHEARING THE MAJORITY OF DEEPEST CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. HOWEVER, DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 2.5/2.5 FROM PGTW AND FMEE SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A MINIMAL TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS DESPITE LESS THAN FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 06S WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE. MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST, BUT STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TO THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD ALLOW THE STORM TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OR PERHAPS INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z AND 160300Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20071215 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 151200Z --- NEAR 15.6S 67.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 67.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 16.5S 66.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 17.5S 64.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 18.5S 62.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 19.4S 61.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 151500Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 67.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 755 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE TC CONTINUED TO BE STEERED BY THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS ON THE PERIPHERY OF A SYNOPTIC-SCALE ANTICYCLONE ALOFT CONTINUE TO HAMPER DEVELOPMENT, SHEARING THE MAJORITY OF DEEPEST CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 2.0/2.0 FROM PGTW AND 2.5/2.5 FROM FMEE SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A MINIMAL TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS DESPITE LESS THAN FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 06S WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE. MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST, BUT STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TO THE SOUTH- WEST ALLOWING THE STORM TO MAINTAIN SOME INTENSITY BUT STILL BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY TAU 12. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK INTO UNFAVORABLE WATERS WITH MARGINAL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) AND DISSIPATE. THIS CHANGES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OF THE PREVIOUS WARNING TO THAT OF A DISSIPATION OVER WATER SCENARIO DUE TO UNFAVOR- ABLE VERTICAL SHEAR AND OHC. MOST OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS REFLECT THIS CHANGE IN FORECAST REASONING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z AND 161500Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20071216 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 160000Z --- NEAR 16.3S 66.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 66.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 17.1S 64.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 18.0S 63.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 19.0S 61.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 160300Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 65.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 660 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ALSO EVIDENT IN A 152103Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE SATELLITE PASS. THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 06S HAS BEEN DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC BY STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INDUCED BY THE PERIPHERAL FLOW OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE ALOFT. THE STORM CONTINUES TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 2.5/2.5 FROM BOTH PGTW AND FMEE SUGGEST THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS REMAIN NEAR 35 KNOTS. HOWEVER, THE CONTINUED IMPACT OF UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS EXPECTED INDUCE A REDUCTION IN SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS TO BELOW THE 35 KNOT WARNING THRESHOLD BY TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z AND 170300Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20071216 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 161200Z --- NEAR 16.9S 64.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 64.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 17.7S 63.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 18.5S 61.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 19.0S 60.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 19.2S 58.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 161500Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 64.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ALSO EVIDENT IN A 160916Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE SATELLITE PASS. THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 06S HAS BEEN DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC BY STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INDUCED BY THE PERIPHERAL FLOW OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE ALOFT. DESPITE THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS ALLOWED THE STORM TO MAINTAIN TC STRENGTH WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.5/2.5 FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. THE STORM CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE OFFSETTING CONDITIONS OF FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND UNFAVORABLE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN TC STRENGTH TILL TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, A DECREASE IN AVAILABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND THE STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL OVER TAKE THE SYSTEM AND RESULT IN DISSIPATION OVER THE WATER. OVERALL, MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT FORECAST REASONING. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z AND 171500Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20071217 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 170000Z --- NEAR 18.4S 63.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 63.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 19.2S 61.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 19.8S 60.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 20.1S 58.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 20.3S 56.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 170300Z POSITION NEAR 18.6S 62.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 455 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 162101Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CON- VECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DE- CREASED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS, BUT THE STORM HAS ONLY MAINTAINED INTENSITY. POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS REMAINED FAVORABLE AND HAS ALLOWED THE STORM TO MAINTAIN TC STRENGTH WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING BETWEEN 30 TO 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. THE STORM CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW TO MID- LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE OFFSETTING CONDITIONS OF FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND UNFAVORABLE MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN TC STRENGTH THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, A DECREASE IN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND THE MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL WEAKEN THE STORM AND RESULT IN THE DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM OVER WATER. THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST REASONING. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z AND 180300Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20071217 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CELINA) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 171200Z --- NEAR 20.4S 61.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 61.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 21.5S 59.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 22.0S 57.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 22.2S 56.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 22.0S 54.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 171500Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 60.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (CELINA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM EAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 170958Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CON- VECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS REMAINED FAVORABLE AND HAS ALLOWED THE STORM TO MAINTAIN TC STRENGTH WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING BETWEEN 30 TO 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. THE STORM CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE OFFSETTING CONDITIONS OF FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND UNFAVORABLE MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN TC STRENGTH THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, A DECREASE IN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND THE MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL WEAKEN THE STORM AND RESULT IN THE DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM OVER WATER. THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST REASONING. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z AND 181500Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20071218 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CELINA) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 180000Z --- NEAR 20.6S 60.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S 60.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 21.1S 58.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 180300Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 59.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (CELINA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM EAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 172336Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE STORM IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM. POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS REMAINED FAVORABLE, HOWEVER A DECREASE IN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL WEAKEN THE STORM AND RESULT IN THE DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM OVER WATER NEAR TAU 12. THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT FORE- CAST REASONING. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 12 FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
Document: tropical_cyclone_celina_jtwc_advisories.htm
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