Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone DAMA : JTWC Advisories |
Season 2007-2008 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
---> Tropical Cyclone DAMA Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20071218 05:30z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 095 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.2S 88.1E TO 17.1S 85.9E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM- AGERY AT 180000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 87.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.5S 88.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 87.8E, APPROXIMATELY 550 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF COCOS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE CENTER, AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE PREVIOUSLY LOCATED EAST OF THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE COINCIDENT WITH THE LLCC, PROVIDING EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND INCREASING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 190530Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20071218 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180521ZDEC2007// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 181200Z --- NEAR 13.5S 84.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S 84.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 13.7S 84.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 14.5S 83.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 15.3S 83.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 16.2S 82.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 181500Z POSITION NEAR 13.5S 84.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 820 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND A 180037Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWING 35 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS WITHIN THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE WITH UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALING A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), GREATLY ENHANCING OUTFLOW ALOFT. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SECOND, FULLY EXPOSED LLCC APPROXIMATELY 300 NM TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF TC 07S. THIS SECOND LLCC COULD EXERT SOME INFLUENCE ON THE TRACK OF TC 07S, BUT IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO HAVE A STRONG EFFECT. TC 07S WILL TRACK SLOWLY TO THE WEST BEFORE TURNING MORE POLEWARD AFTER TAU 12. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 180521ZDEC2007 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 180530) MAXIMUM SIG- NIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z AND 191500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CELINA) FOR THE FINAL WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW 180300).// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20071219 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 190000Z --- NEAR 13.8S 82.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S 82.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 14.7S 81.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 16.0S 81.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 17.2S 82.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 18.3S 83.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 190300Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 81.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 690 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 40 TO 45 KNOTS AND A 181623Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWING 40 KNOT WINDS WITHIN THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE WITH UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALING A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), GREATLY ENHANCING OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE LLCC MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, WHICH WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF TC 07S, IS NO LONGER INFLUENCING THE TRACK OR INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM AND APPEARS TO HAVE DISSIPATED AS EVIDENCED IN A 181955Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE. TC 07S WILL TRACK SLOWLY SOUTH- WESTWARD BEFORE TURNING SOUTHEASTWARD NEAR TAU 24 DUE TO INCREASING INFLUENCE FROM A STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS SUSTAINED BY THE DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z AND 200300Z. ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20071219 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191200Z --- NEAR 14.3S 80.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 80.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 15.2S 80.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 16.0S 81.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 17.1S 82.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 17.9S 83.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 191500Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 80.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ON THE NORTH- WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. CURRENT INTEN- SITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 KNOTS TO 50 KNOTS, AND THE APPEARANCE OF A BANDING MICROWAVE EYE IN A 190809Z AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE NEAR TERM, BEFORE TURNING SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER CROSSING THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR TAU 24. ENHANCED OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW THE CONTINUED SLOW INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z AND 201500Z. ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20071220 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200000Z --- NEAR 15.6S 82.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 82.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 16.8S 83.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 17.9S 84.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 19.0S 86.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 20.0S 88.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 200300Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 82.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 760 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CURRENT STORM POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND FMEE. STORM MOTION HAS SHIFTED FROM GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHEAST- WARD DUE TO A CHANGE IN THE STEERING MECHANISM FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH TO A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 07S WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE NEW STEER- ING RIDGE AND AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS APPROACHING TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BOOST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, BUT LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. A CONTINUING INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE INTRODUCTION OF COOLER, DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO INDUCE THE FIRST STAGE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z AND 210300Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20071220 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DAMA) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 201200Z --- NEAR 17.5S 84.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 84.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 19.0S 86.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 20.6S 88.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 22.2S 90.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 23.7S 91.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 201500Z POSITION NEAR 17.9S 84.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (DAMA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 915 NM SOUTH- EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CURRENT STORM POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND FMEE. THE STORM HAS ACCELERATED SOUTHEASTWARD BETWEEN A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS APPROACHING TROUGH IS STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, BUT THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL PREVENT ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU 12. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY TAU 36, AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES AND COOLER, DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210300Z AND 211500Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20071221 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DAMA) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 210000Z --- NEAR 19.0S 86.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 86.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 20.4S 88.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 21.9S 89.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 23.3S 90.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 210300Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 86.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (DAMA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 730 NM SOUTH- WEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE STORM POSITION ESTIMATE IS BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND FMEE. CURRENT INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 3.0/3.5 FROM PGTW AND 2.5/2.5 FROM FMEE. TC 07S CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR- EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH TO THE WEST. DE- CREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING AS THE STORM BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 12. THIS TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETE BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z AND 220300Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20071221 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DAMA) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 211200Z --- NEAR 21.4S 90.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 25 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL REPEAT POSIT: 21.4S 90.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 24.1S 92.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 27.0S 94.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 211500Z POSITION NEAR 22.1S 91.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (DAMA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 655 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 25 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE STORM POSITION ESTIMATE IS BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND FMEE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 25 TO 45 KNOTS. TC 07S HAS CONTINUED TO ACCELERATE SOUTH- EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH TO THE WEST. DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT HAVE INDUCED RAPID WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE STORM HAS LOST ALL DEEP CONVECTION AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME MORE DIFFUSE. THE STORM IS UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND WILL COMPLETE THIS TRAN- SITION BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 15 FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
Document: tropical_cyclone_dama_jtwc_advisories.htm
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