Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone DAMAN : JTWC Advisories |
Season 2007-2008 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
---> Tropical Cyclone DAMAN Track Map and Data |
WTPS21 PGTW 20071204 02:30z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 175 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.2S 176.6W TO 14.7S 177.6E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM- AGERY AT 040130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 177.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.6S 176.6W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 177.2W, APPROXIMATELY 440 NM NORTH- EAST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 032054Z AMSU IMAGE SHOW PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION AND IMPROVING CONS- OLIDATION NEAR A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. THE DISTURBANCE LIES DIRECTLY UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL ANT- ICYCLONE, WHICH IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT OUTFLOW ALOFT AND LIMITING THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 050230Z.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20071205 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MY/040221Z DEC 07// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 050000Z --- NEAR 12.1S 178.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S 178.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 12.5S 176.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 13.2S 175.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 14.4S 175.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 15.6S 176.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 050300Z POSITION NEAR 12.2S 178.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE LOWER END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 KNOTS (PGTW, KNES) TO 45 KNOTS (ABRF). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AS EVIDENT IN RECENT MICROWAVE AND ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. TC 05P IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, WITH THE SYSTEM BEGINNING A TURN TO THE SOUTH NEAR TAU 24 AS THE STORM ENCOUNTERS A TROUGH ADVANCING FROM THE WEST. AFTER TAU 24 THE STORM WILL SLOW AND CONTINUE TO RECURVE AS IT COMES UNDER INCREASING INFLUENCE FROM THE TROUGH BEFORE COMING TO A SOUTHEASTERLY HEADING NEAR TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE WAS LIMITED DUE TO THE WEAK NATURE OF THE STORM BUT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK AND SYNOPTIC SITUATION. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 040221Z DEC 07 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 040230). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z AND 060300Z.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20071205 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (DAMAN) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 051200Z --- NEAR 12.6S 176.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 176.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 13.5S 175.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 14.2S 174.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 14.8S 175.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 15.6S 176.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 051500Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 176.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (DAMAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM NORTH OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 05P IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED SLOWLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 05P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 BEFORE TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN APPROACHING MID- LATITUDE TROUGH. THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 24, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO SLOW AS IT ENTERS A PERIOD OF WEAK STEERING BEFORE TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z AND 061500Z.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20071206 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (DAMAN) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 060000Z --- NEAR 14.7S 175.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 175.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 15.7S 175.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 16.6S 176.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 17.7S 177.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 19.6S 178.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 060300Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 175.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (DAMAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM NORTH OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, TC 05P HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY AND TURNED MORE SOUTHWARD AS IT TRACKED ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN POS- ITIONING WHICH WAS BASED ON TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING AND SEVERAL MICRO- WAVE IMAGES SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AT 37 GHZ. TC 05P HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY DUE TO THE EXCELLENT DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW EVIDENT IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS WELL AS FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC). THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS FROM ALL AVAILABLE AGENCIES. TC 05P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH TAU 24 BUT WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE WITHIN EN- HANCED POLEWARD FLOW BETWEEN THE APPROACHING DEEP TROUGH AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. OVERALL, THE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK BUT DIVERGE SLIGHTLY AFTER TAU 48 DUE TO THE WEAK- ENING OF THE SYSTEM WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND LOWER SST/OHC. MAXIMUM SIGNIF- ICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z AND 070300Z.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20071206 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (DAMAN) WARNING NR 004 RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (DAMAN) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 061200Z --- NEAR 15.4S 176.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 176.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 16.1S 177.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 16.8S 178.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 17.9S 179.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 19.2S 179.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 061500Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 176.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (DAMAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, TC 05P HAS SLOWED TURNED SOUTH- EASTWARD AS IT RECURVED ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. DURING THIS TIME, TC 05P HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INTENSIFIED AND AN EYE FEATURE DEVELOPED IN ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY GIVING A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN POSITIONING. THE INTENSIFICATION IS DUE TO THE EXCELLENT DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW EVIDENT IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS WELL AS FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC). THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65 TO 75 KNOTS FROM ALL AVAILABLE AGENCIES. TC 05P IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, 05P WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AND SLIGHTLY ACCELERATE WITHIN ENHANCED POLEWARD FLOW BETWEEN THE APPROACHING DEEP TROUGH AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. OVERALL, THE DYNAMIC AIDS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK BUT STILL DIVERGE SLIGHTLY AFTER TAU 48 DUE TO THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, LAND INTERACTION, AND LOWER SST AND OHC. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z AND 071500Z.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20071206 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (DAMAN) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 061800Z --- NEAR 15.4S 177.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 177.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 16.1S 178.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 17.1S 179.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 18.7S 179.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 20.9S 179.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 062100Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 177.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (DAMAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM NORTH OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 05P HAS UNDERGONE A PERIOD OF EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING SUPPORTED BY HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM REPORTING AGENCIES RANGE FROM 5.0/5.0 (PHFO) TO 6.0/6.0 (PGTW) AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET ACCORDINGLY AT 100 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT RECENT IMPROVEMENTS IN STORM STRUCTURE, TRACK FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED. TC 05P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AHEAD OF AN APPROACH- ING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE STORM. THE CONTINUING INFLUENCES OF GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM WATER BELOW WILL ALLOW THE STORM TO FURTHER INTENSIFY PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL ON VANUA LEVU ISLAND BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 24. THEREAFTER, LAND INTERACTION AND DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ARE EXPECTED TO INDUCE STRUCTURAL CHANGES AND SLOW WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 36. MORE RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48 AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH INCREASES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z AND 072100Z.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20071207 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (DAMAN) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 070600Z --- NEAR 15.7S 178.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 178.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 16.4S 180.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 17.9S 178.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 19.8S 178.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 21.9S 178.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 070900Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 178.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (DAMAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM NORTH- EAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. AFTER UNDER GOING A PERIOD OF EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING, THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE RAGGED AND COVERED BY CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. WITH A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 5.5 FROM PGTW, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET ACCORDINGLY AT 105 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT RECENT EROSION IN THE STORM STRUCTURE, TRACK FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED. TC 05P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE STORM. THE CON- TINUING INFLUENCE OF GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW THE STORM TO MAINTAIN MUCH OF THE INTENSITY AS IT MAKES LANDFALL ON EASTERN VANUA LEVU ISLAND PRIOR TO TAU 12. THEREAFTER, LAND INTERACTION AND DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ARE EXPECTED TO INDUCE STRUCTURAL CHANGES AND SLOW WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 48. OVERALL, MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT FORECAST REASONING. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z AND 080900Z.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20071207 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (DAMAN) WARNING NR 007 RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (DAMAN) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 071800Z --- NEAR 15.7S 179.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 179.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 16.7S 177.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 18.3S 176.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 20.5S 176.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 22.7S 177.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 072100Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 178.5W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (DAMAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 05P HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID- ATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING EASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM. HOWEVER, AS THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST MOVES CLOSER TO TC 05P, THE STEERING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REORIENT AND INDUCE AN INCREASINGLY POLEWARD STORM TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE STORM WILL STEADILY WEAKEN AS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURATURES ERODE THE STORM STRUCTURE. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN AROUND TAU 48 AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO EMBED WITHIN THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z AND 082100Z.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20071208 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (DAMAN) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 080600Z --- NEAR 16.9S 178.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 178.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 18.1S 177.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 19.5S 177.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 21.2S 178.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 22.7S 179.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 080900Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 178.3W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (DAMAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM EAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 05P HAS WEAKENED DURING THE PAST 12 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DECREASING CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHICH IS BECOMING PARTIALLY EXPOSED. A 080515Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LLCC. TC 05P IS BEING STEERED BY THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH- EAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE EARLY FORECAST PERIOD BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 24. TC 05P IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 36 AND COMP- LETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z AND 090900Z.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20071208 21:00z SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (DAMAN) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 081800Z --- NEAR 17.6S 177.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 177.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 18.6S 177.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 20.1S 178.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 21.9S 179.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 082100Z POSITION NEAR 17.9S 177.8W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (DAMAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM EAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH HAS LEFT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULA- TION OF TC 05P FULLY EXPOSED. THE STORM HAS BEEN TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE EXTEN- SION TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER, A SECOND RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO EXERT AN INCREASING INFLUENCE ON STORM MOTION, PUSHING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD AHEAD OF THE AFOREMEN- TIONED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE STORM CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGH AFTER TAU 24. BECAUSE STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST, THE SYSTEM MAY DISSIPATE BEFORE THIS TRANSITION CAN BE COMPLETED. IN EITHER CASE, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LITTLE POSSIBILITY OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z AND 092100Z.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20071209 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (DAMAN) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 090600Z --- NEAR 18.5S 178.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S 178.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 19.4S 178.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 20.3S 178.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 090900Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 178.1W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (DAMAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM EAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH NO CONVECTION REMAINING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 24. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 16 FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
Document: tropical_cyclone_daman_jtwc_advisories.htm
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