WTXS22 PGTW 20080421 23:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.2S 86.9E TO 10.5S 95.2E WITH-
IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS-
SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
212230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.4S
87.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.6S
86.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.4S 87.5E, APPROXIMATELY 600 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING DISTURBANCE WITH FORMATIVE CON-
VECTIVE BANDING. A 211923Z AMSR-E IMAGE DEPICTS A TIGHTENING
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
SOUTH WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN QUADRANT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE LLCC AND
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY BROAD MIDLATITUDE
TROUGHING SOUTHWEST OF THE DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR
CANCELLED BY 222330Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080422 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//    
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/212321Z APR 08//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/    
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S WARNING NR 001    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   221800Z --- NEAR 8.6S 93.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.6S 93.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 9.3S 96.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 9.8S 98.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 10.6S 99.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 11.3S 100.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 8.8S 94.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 29S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 705 NM WEST OF
CHRISTMAS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 221851Z
AMSU IMAGE INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTH
INTO THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. A 221210Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE INDICATED 30-
35 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED AMSU IMAGE AS WELL AS SATELLITE
POSITION ESTIMATES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGH END
OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30-35 KNOTS AND QUIKSCAT DATA.
TC 29S IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH THROUGH TAU 36 THEN WILL TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD AND SLOW, SIMILAR TO TC 28S, DUE TO SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING POSITIONED TO THE EAST. TC 29S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY UNDER GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS BUT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AFTER TAU 24 WITH THE APPROACH AND DEEPENING OF A MID-
LATITUDE SHORTWAVE WEST OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL PRODUCE INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVPACMETOCCEN 212321Z APR 08 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 212330). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
221800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z AND 232100Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (ROSIE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080423 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//    
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/212321Z APR 08//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/ 
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (DURGA) WARNING NR 002 
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO 
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE 
--- 
WARNING POSITION: 
230600Z --- NEAR 9.0S 96.3E 
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 10 KTS 
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM 
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE 
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: 
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT 
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY 
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT 
REPEAT POSIT: 9.0S 96.3E 
--- 
FORECASTS: 
12 HRS, VALID AT: 
231800Z --- 9.7S 98.1E 
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT 
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY 
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS 
--- 
24 HRS, VALID AT: 
240600Z --- 10.6S 99.5E 
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT 
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY 
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER 
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS 
--- 
36 HRS, VALID AT: 
241800Z --- 11.6S 100.4E 
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT 
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY 
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER 
--- 
REMARKS: 
230900Z POSITION NEAR 9.2S 96.7E. 
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 12 FEET. 
NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z AND 240900Z. 
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (ROSIE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) 
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. 
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080423 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (DURGA) WARNING NR 003
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   231800Z --- NEAR 10.0S 97.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.0S 97.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 11.0S 98.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 12.1S 99.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 13.9S 100.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 10.3S 97.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 29S (DURAGO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM
NORTHNORTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY
AND A 231148Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING
PRIMARILY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRC-
ULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 29S IS CURRENTLY UNDER HIGH NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH DISPLACEMENT OF DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. POLEWARD
OUTFLOW IS BEING MARGINALLY ENHANCED BY A MIDLATITUTDE TROUGH
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO SUSTAIN THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS BASED ON A 230320Z
ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING 25 TO 30 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS AND MORE RECENT
SATELLITE INTENSITY ANALYSES FROM PGTW AND KNES RANGING FROM 35
TO 45 KNOTS. THE STORM WILL TAKE A PROGRESSIVELY MORE SOUTHWARD
TRACK IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED STEERING INFLUENCE FROM THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST OF THE STORM. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BETWEEN
TAU 24 AND TAU 36, AS WELL AS LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. BOTH OF
THESE VARIABLES WILL ULTIMATELY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BELOW TROPICAL
CYCLONE STRENGTH BY TAU 36. THIS CURRENT INTENSITY TREND DEVIATES
SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN RESPONSE TO THE SHEAR GRAD-
IENT NOT ADVANCING AS FAR NORTH AS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THE
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR GRADIENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT
PROGRESSES EASTWARD CONFINING HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK. THUS, FORECAST INTENSITIES WILL
REFLECT A DELAYED WEAKENING TREND AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
SHEAR GRADIENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTAT 231800Z
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z AND 242100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (ROSIE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080424 09:00z 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/   
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (DURGA) WARNING NR 004    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   240600Z --- NEAR 10.8S 99.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.8S 99.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 12.1S 99.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 13.8S 100.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 11.1S 99.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 29S (DURGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM 
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. STRONG NORTHEASTLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR INDUCED BY THE PERIPHERAL WINDS OF A SYNOPTIC SCALE,
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO BUFFET THE SYSTEM. AS A 
RESULT, RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE
INCREASINGLY POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROP-
ICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE STORM. THOUGH STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL PERSIST, FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW SHOULD ALLOW THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULA-
TION TO MAINTAIN SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS THAT MATCH OR EXCEED THE
WARNING THRESHOLD OF 35 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 12. THEREAFTER, A
FURTHER INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASE IN OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT WILL INDUCE DISSIPATION BY TAU 24. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 242100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (ROSIE) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080424 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (DURGA) WARNING NR 005
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   241800Z --- NEAR 11.9S 99.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S 99.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 13.3S 100.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 99.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 29S (DURGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
EAST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 241532Z AMSUB MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW RAPID DISSIPATION OF THE
ALREADY SHEARED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION REMAINS NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE STORM
INTENSITY IS CURRENTLY ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON SCATTEROMETRY
DATA AND MORE RECENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ANALYSES FROM PGTW AND KNES
RANGING FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY BELOW THE WARNING
CRITERIA THRESHOLD AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND IMPOSES HIGHER VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR VALUES OVER THE SYSTEM. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 11 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 28S (ROSIE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_durga_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]